By Jonah Drew

NL MVP: Fernando Tatis Jr.

I view Fernando Tatis Jr. in a very similar light as 2023 NL MVP, Ronald Acuna Jr. Acuna did not play the better part of the 2021 season due to an ACL Tear. Tatis did not at all in the 2022 season due to a variety of injuries and eventually a controversial steroid suspension. Acuna’s 2022 was not up to his standards at all, posting a 115 WRC+, not bad but not Ronald Acuna. Tatis 2023 was the same story, a .771 OPS is very good but we have seen what Nando is capable of, not to mention he won the platinum glove at a completely foreign position. Once he fully had his legs back under him, Acuna had a record breaking 40/70 season and an undeniable MVP season. I expect a similar plot for Tatis, the man is a freak of nature. It can not be overstated how impressive his 2023 was from a defensive standpoint, Tatis in the Top 6 percent in range, arm strength, and fielding run value, this is not normal for someone still learning the position. Tatis still hit the ball incredibly hard last season, posting a hard hit rate just below 50%. With another year in right field and and another year removed from his hiatus, there is no reason Tatis can’t be an 8+ win player and the NL MVP.

AL MVP: Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge got ample fan fair for his 62 Homer season in 2022 and rightfully so, in some peoples eyes, not mine for the record, Judge broke the single season home run record regardless of league. What if I told you he was equally as good in 2023 and if it weren’t for the chain link fence in Dodger Stadium, he would have showed that 2022 Aaron Judge, is annual Aaron Judge. Aaron Judge led the league in the following offensive metrics-xwOBA(.451), xSLG(.712), Average Exit Velocity(97.6), Barrel Rate(27.5%), Hard-Hit Rate(64.2%) and Walk Rate(19.2). In other words, Aaron Judge is the best hitter in baseball and it is not particularly close at all. I would go as far as to say that Aaron Judge is the best overall player in baseball in 2024, considering Shohei Ohtani is exclusively a DH. The protection for Juan Soto, expect some gaudy gaudy numbers from Judge in 2024. His WAR numbers will be helped by the fact that he playing a premium position, assuming he can play an average center field which he has shown the ability to do.

NL Cy Young: Spencer Strider

Spencer Strider is the heavy favorite win this award and for good reason. Until he does what I expect him to ERA wise, there will always be the Strider deniers that scream about his 3.86 ERA from the mountain tops. To this crowd I say, please consider looking even slightly deeper into his 2023 season, I think you will find that he pitched far better than his ERA. I do not think there is a peripheral anywhere that does not love Spencer Strider, his xERA of 3.09 was a far cry from his 3.86, as was his 2.92 xFIP. It would hardly be a stretch to call Strider the modern day Nolan Ryan, of course its early but that is the way its looking. In 2022, Strider broke the record for least amount of innings to rack up 200 Strikeouts. In 2023, Strider struck out 36.8% of batters, good for the 99th percentile. I am extremely excited about Strider’s new addition to his arsenal, his curveball. Previously strictly a fastball/slider guy, it will be massive for him to have a reliable alternate secondary. Although the Fastball and Slider are easy 70+ grade offering, neither are immune to an off day and if Strider can have a second out pitch on days where he does not have his slider command, it should only help his already unrivaled strike out ability.

AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal

It seems Tarik Skubal has become a popular Cy Young pick, especially now that last year’s winner, Gerrit Cole, will miss significant time. I have to say though, I have had this selection predetermined since about November, long before the Skubal hype train really started to pick up steam. There is a reason Skubal has fallen into favor with the baseball community, by all accounts, he was the best pitcher in baseball in the second half, where 68.1 of his 80.1 Innings came from. Skubal’s peripherals were absolutely fantastic, he posted an xERA of 2.30, an xBA of .197, and a barrel rate of 4.2%. Skubal has a rare combination of Strike out ability and Ground ball ability. Skubal’s 32.9% K rate ranks in the 96th percentile while his 51.8% Ground ball rate ranks in the 87th percentile, not to mention his minuscule 4.5% walk rate. Every pitch in Skubal’sb4 pitch mix is effective but his Changeup is what really stands out, the pitch generates whiff at over a 50% clip and has an xwOBA of .195. Skubal’s numbers in the second half are beyond encouraging, if he can stay healthy which has been an issue in the past, he is fully capable of being the best pitcher in the game, no exaggeration.

NL ROTY: Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Fans were quick to pile on Yamamoto after he struggled in his Dodgers debut. Yamamoto pitched on Thursday in the Seoul series, only lasting one inning and allowing 5 to cross. The reaction to this game, as you would expect, was irrational, people making brash takes about one bad inning in the man’s first start in a foreign country. Let’s not forget the Yamamoto sweepstakes, Yoshi had some of the best baseball minds in the world fawning over his abilities. Minds like Brian Cashman, David Stearns, and Andrew Friedman were happy to open up the checkbook, and for good reason at that. Yamamoto features a comfortably plus fastball, sitting mid 90s with some elite ride at the top of the zone. He also has 2 absolutely elite breaking pitches, a Splitter and a Curveball. The splitter sits around 90 MPH with 1500 RPMs and some devastating horizontal break. The heralded “yo-yo” Curve has nearly 3000 RPMs and generates whiff like you would expect, but what you wouldn’t expect is the fact that Yoshi lands it for a strike 70% of the time. The cutter and the sweeper are both solid big league pitches to round out an unbelievable 5 pitch mix. The 3 time NPB MVP has some relatively unprecedented expectations surrounding him and am fully bought in, the expectations are warranted.

AL ROTY: Wyatt Langford

Wyatt Langford absolutely rakes, and he has done nothing but since well his stats have been tracked. Langford only had significant ABs in 2 Collegiate seasons for Florida, he put 1.166 OPS, and then a 1.282 OPS in his Junior season. Langford his 47 HRs in 134 Games at the college level, in the SEC no less. On top of that, Langford can fly, posting run times in the 95th percentile. All this is why I was absolutely floored when the Detroit Tigers passed on him in favor of Max Clark, not that Clark is a bad player by any means but if I were Ben Cherrington of the Pirates, I might just have selected Langford number 1 overall. The Rangers, the world series champions, were more than happy to take him as he fell into their laps. Langford continued his immense success to pro ball, posting an OPS above 1.000 at every stop, from rookie ball all the way to AAA. He even put on a show in spring training, removing any doubt that he would be on the big club from the jump. My only gripe with Langford is that I wish he would use his speed to steal more bases and especially to play quality outfield defense, where he has graded out very poorly, especially for somebody of his athleticism. Langford has as much protection as one could ask for, as he will be in the middle of one of, if not the very best lineup in baseball. Langford could legit hit 40 tanks as a rookie, this is the kind of juice we are looking at.

NL MOTY: David Bell

Manager of the year far and away the hardest award to predict for a variety of reasons. The main one being Manager of the year, more than any other award, is a narrative based award. These narratives are almost impossible to predict but nonetheless there are some story lines you can see from a mile away. This is the case with David Bell, if you read my standings and playoff predictions you would know I believe in the Cincinnati Reds. I had them winning 87 ball games and winning the National League Central division. The youngest team in baseball, the Reds will be a load of fun and I expect the national media to fall in love with this team. It also helps that even though this team is Uber talented, it is not full of household names so this will help play into the “more with less” narrative, even if it is not entirely true.

AL MOTY: A.J. Hinch

As I said in my narrative ball rant above, this award is won and lost on media generated narratives. This may throw a wrench into A.J. Hinch’s American League Manager of the year candidacy. Hinch was the manager of the notorious 2017-2019 Astros, probably the most hated team since the turn of the century due to their trash banging cheating scandal. It remains to be seen whether or not the writers voting on the matter will hold his history against him but I lean on the side that they won’t. If the Tigers do what I expect them to do, which is win 85 games and win the American League Central division, then Hinch will be crowned as the man who brought winning baseball back to the motor city.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

CBS Sports

Fangraphs

Fanduel

Just Baseball