Diamond Metrics

  • A Brief Breakdown of Story’s Impossible Homer

    By Joe Browne

    ICYMI: Earlier this week Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story celebrated his Labor Day by hitting maybe the most effortless homerun in baseball history. In the bottom of the sixth, Guardians righty Jakob Junis served up a 306 foot lazy fly ball to right field, until it wasn’t. The ball ricocheted off of Cleveland’s Jhonkensy Noel’s glove and hit the right field foul pole. After a lengthy review by the umpires and replay review room the result of the play was deemed a homerun. According to statcast a ball hit at that distance, exit velocity and launch angle would be a homerun in…0/30 major league ballparks. If you are unfamiliar with Fenway Park’s wacky dimensions allow me to break it down for you. Straight down the right field line in Boston the foul pole is 302 feet away from home plate. It is the shortest distance from foul pole to home plate in any active ballpark. Due to this Boston’s right field foul pole has been deemed the “pesky pole”. Pesky is not just an adjective, it goes deeper than that. The right field foul pole in Boston is actually named after Johnny Pesky. Pesky was given the namesake of the pole because he played ten seasons in Boston and is a franchise legend. 

    Story’s homer on Monday afternoon got me thinking about the history of the foul pole in baseball. Foul poles have been present in baseball even before most fields used fences to enclose themselves. They serve a simple yet integral purpose: to help the umpires judge whether the ball landed in fair or foul territory. Of course like anything else in baseball they have evolved over the years. Later on they became taller and painted a bright yellow so it is easy to decipher whether the white ball struck the yellow metal. Today, just like about anything in this world noadays some teams have placed advertisements on them for monetization value. 

    When talking about Story’s outlier home run he hit on Monday afternoon, someone asked me why it is a “foul” pole and not a “fair” pole. In that instance a very valid point was made. If the baseball strikes the pole it’s a fair ball and a homerun. Not a foul ball and dead. So, in order to cut down on potential fan confusion why doesn’t baseball simply change the name of the pole. Like many other things in this great game, sometimes baseball is wacky in the way it goes about things. This is yet another instance of just that wackiness. 

    Sources:

    Baseball Fever

    Baseball Reference

    Baseball Savant

    MLB.com

  • Jacob Wilson is an Enigma

    By Jonah Drew

    Jacob Wilson extends his hitting streak to 13 games

    In the modern baseball landscape, where teams and players prioritize quality of contact over quantity of contact, Jacob Wilson is the antithesis. Jacob Wilson’s success early on spits in the face of every trend in modern baseball. This is nothing new to Wilson though, he has been doing this since back to his days in the WAC with Grand Canyon.

    Wilson has always been an elite contact hitter. In his freshman season at GCU, Wilson hit .313 and only struck out 19 times in 182 At Bats, but that was just a glimpse of how far he could take this refusal to strikeout. In 246 Sophomore At Bats, Wilson struck out just 7 times while batting .358 and slugging .585. In his junior year, his draft year, he struck out just 5 times while posting a 1.061 OPS(.411 Avg.). After a remarkable college career, the then Oakland Athletics took a chance on Wilson, selecting the shortstop 6th overall in the 2023 Draft. This was to the dismay of countless critics, nobody was denying his hit tool, but many questioned his upside due to his relatively lower level college competition and lack of impact.

    Wilson quickly quieted the doubters in his early pro ball stints though. In 26 minor league games, 23 of which were in High A, he posted a 130 wRC+ with a .391 OBP. After short, but successful minor league season, Jacob Wilson began 2024 in AA and to say he showed out there, would be an understatement. Jacob Wilson slashed .455/.473/.705 with a 226 wRC+ in 22 games at the level. This dominance obviously earned him a promotion to AAA, where he continued to mash. In 26 AAA games, Wilson slashed .396/.448/.613, good for a 159 wRC+. He also notably walked 9 times and struck out only 5 times. After raking through every level of minor league baseball, Wilson earned himself a Big League debut in his first full season as a pro. For the first time in a long time, Wilson struggled a little bit. In his first taste of big league action in 2024, Wilson posted an 86 wRC+ and a measly .315 SLG, just one tick better than his .314 OBP. All of these numbers were far below the standard that Wilson had set for himself.

    Coming into 2025, external doubts regarding Wilson began to creep in. He wasn’t hitting the ball hard, he wasn’t drawing walks, many questioned whether or not his methodology was conducive to value and success in modern baseball. Despite this, Jacob Wilson has been absolutely incredible to start the 2025 season. He’s currently slashing an unreal .363/.389/.513, with a 158 wRC+ and 5 home runs, two of which came last night, in a homecoming against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. It is hard to overstate how great Wilson has been thus far. He is often compared to the Padres’ Luis Arraez, who like Wilson, makes an absurd amount of contact but also doesn’t hit the ball extraordinarily hard. There is a fundamental difference between their holistic skill sets though, Arraez almost exclusively plays First Base, a secondary defensive position, and he is a negative defender, even by First Base standards. On the other hand, Wilson is a comfortably positive defender at a premium position, which is extremely valuable in itself. Wilson is the odds on favorite to win American Rookie of the Year, and it would take a fall from grace for Wilson to not take home the honor.

    As great of a hitter as Jacob Wilson is, nothing about his offensive profile is conventional. For starters, Wilson refuses to take pitches, he has a 53% Swing Rate and a 33.2% OSwing%. Chasing that much, is not typically something that leads to success but Wilson’s otherworldly bat to ball skills make it possible. He’s currently at an unreal 83.8% Contact rate outside of the zone, and a 91.3% Contact rate overall. Wilson’s bat speed is also extremely slow, averaging 63.2 MPH, which is in the 1st percentile of MLB. Naturally, this slow bat leads to lower exit velocities. Wilson posts an Average Exit Velocity of 86.9 MPH and a Hard Hit Rate of 26.5%, both of which are below 13th percentile. Along with the overwhelming bat to ball ability, Jacob Wilson excels at squaring the ball up on the meat of the bat. He posts a 41.3% Squared-Up rate, which lands him the the 99th percentile. Say what you want about Batting Average and it’s flaws as a stats, I’d even largely agree with you, but there is no denying batting .363 in you’re rookie season is insanely impressive, and all indications are that will continue with his .317 xBA. Jacob Wilson has an unorthodox profile, but it is so wacky that it might just be sustainable.

    Sources

    Baseball Reference

    Baseball Savant

    Fangraphs

    GCU Lopes Baseball

  • One Early Reaction For Every Team

    By Joe Browne

    Baseball is back! The first two weeks of the season have been incredibly entertaining filled with dominant outings on the mound and clutch hits at the dish. Here’s a short checkup on how all 30 clubs have played so far this season.

    Arizona Diamondbacks (7-7): Corbin Carrroll is officially back

    After an up-and-down 2024 Carroll has returned to form slashing .315/.413/.704 and leading baseball with a 1.3 fWAR.

    Athletics (6-9): Sutter Health Park is not pitcher friendly

    The A’s new home stadium in West Sacramento has an extremely thin foul territory and has averaged almost 12 runs of offense through the first seven games played there.

    Atlanta Braves (4-10): About as bad as a start imaginable

    Knowing the Braves, come July we could all look back and say “remember when these guys started 0-7!”. The offense has scored the second least runs in baseball and Ronald Acuna Jr. is going to be tasked with some heavy lifting when he’s healthy.

    Baltimore Orioles (6-8): The rotation needs to get healthy, and fast

    Despite Sugano being a pleasant surprise, Morton and Kremer have both been terrible. Competing in the AL East is going to be difficult if Rodriguez, Eflin, Wells and Bradish suffer setbacks.

    Boston Red Sox (7-9): Wilyer Abreu for MVP?

    What a start for Abreu, slashing .348/.464/.630 all while showing off his cannon of an arm in right field on multiple occasions.

    Chicago Cubs (9-7): So far, so good for the offense

    Kyle Tucker has made a massive impact on this lineup, leading the charge for the best offense in baseball thus far.

    Chicago White Sox (4-10): The pitching has been surprisingly good

    Out of absolutely nowhere Chicago’s rotation has looked solid so far posting a respectable 3.82 ERA as a unit.

    Cincinnati Reds (7-8): Hunter Greene is taking another step foward

    Greene has taken yet another step forward this season punching out 23 hitters in his first 20.2 innings and only surrendering only one long ball. His steady improvement year over year since being called up in 2022 has been fun to watch play out.

    Cleveland Guardians (8-6): The bullpen is back at it again

    Cleveland has won four straight and allowed just three runs over during this short streak. The bullpen carried the load last year and has a sparkling 2.17 ERA to start this season. A Guardians starter has thrown a pitch in the sixth inning only twice throughout their first 13 games.

    Colorado Rockies (3-10): Even with the Coors effect, the offense is feeble

    Colorado has scored just 40 runs in their first 13 games which is good for the worst in baseball. Despite playing half of their games in the most hitter friendly park in baseball, the Rockies can’t hit.

    Detroit Tigers (9-5): All around great start

    The Tigers have been playing great ball to start the season. So far, providing much more offense than last season. Torkelson has looked very good so far after an abysmal 2024 and even Javier Baez is hitting right now!

    Houston Astros (6-8): Christian Walker has to get going

    It has been a rough start for the Houston offense and marquee free agent signing Christian Walker has not helped. Posting just a 51 wRC+ so far and only one long ball is not the production the Astros were hoping to get from Walker.

    Kansas City Royals (7-8): Bobby Witt Jr. needs some help from his teammates

    Yet again, Bobby Witt Jr. is having a phenomenal season and the rest of his teammates are not posing to be threats. Witt is the only Kansas City hitter that has shown any level of consistent play in the early season.

    Los Angeles Angels (9-5): Kyren Paris, remember the name

    The former second round pick back in 2019 has come out of nowhere and taken over at second base for the Angels. Paris has a slugging percentage of 1.000, a wRC+ of 315 and and 1.2 fWAR throughout his first 12 games.

    Los Angeles Dodgers (11-4): Tommy Edman hits tanks

    Edman proved to be the steal of the trade deadline last season after turning his season around with the Dodgers. He even collected the MVP award of the National League Championship series. In his first 58 at bats of 2025, he has as many homeruns (6) as he did in 139 at bats last year.

    Miami Marlins (7-7): Giving Matt Mervis a chance is paying off

    Mervis struggled during his short time with the Cubs and despite having prospect pedigree, Chicago moved this winter. In his first 32 at bats as a Marlin, he has more homers than he had in his entire stint with the Cubs.

    Milwaukee Brewers (8-6): Jackson Chourio is elite

    Following a great rookie season, Chourio has taken a massive leap forward to start 2025. At just 21 years old, Chourio is slashing .302/.297/.619 with 5 homers and a 153 OPS+.

    Minnesota Twins (4-11): Whats that smell?

    This is just about as bad as a start Twins fans could have possibly imagined. Nobody in the lineup is hitting whatsoever and the pitching has not been great either. Currently, they are sitting in last place in the AL Central and it looks like it’s going to be a long season in Minnesota.

    New York Mets (9-5): The pitching has been impeccable

    Coming into the season many doubted the Mets staff and said the offense would have to carry the load. Through 14 games the polar opposite has been true. New York has the best team ERA in baseball at 2.47 and also has surrendered just 40 runs thus far.

    New York Yankees (8-6): This lineup is dangerous

    Many doubted the supporting cast around Judge entering the season, but they have held up their end of the bargain. Torpedo bat controversy aside, New York ranks at least top-3 in runs, OPS, average, total bases and homeruns through their first 14 ballgames.

    Philadelphia Phillies (9-5): Jesus Luzardo was the steal of the offseason

    The southpaw struggled in an injury shortened season with Miami in 2024 but has looked dominant so far this year. Striking out 36.2% of hitters en route to a sparkling 1.50 ERA through three starts.

    Pittsburgh Pirates (5-10): The offense is as bad as advertised

    Expectations for Pittsburgh’s lineup coming into the season were non-existent and they are proving the consensus right. Hitting a pitiful .190 as a team is never going to give you a chance to win anything.

    San Diego Padres (11-3): Picture perfect start

    If you are a Padres fan it would be hard to find something to complain about when it comes to the team’s play. Both the pitching and offense have been excellent and have put the Padres in a great spot to start the year. Unexpected production has been key from guys like Sheets and Vasquez paired with stars playing very well.

    San Francisco Giants (10-4): Wilmer Flores is a machine

    Flores has mainly been a platoon guy during his time with the Giants but his hitting the cover off the ball right now. He is tied for a baseball-best homeruns mark with six and has already driven in 19 runs on the young season. His play along with many others has been key in San Francisco’s best start in over a decade.

    Seattle Mariners (6-8): The Jorge Polanco revenge tour

    Following a brutal 2024, the Mariners made an interesting decision to re-sign Jorge Polanco. So far, it had paid major dividends for the Marines as Polanco has been far and away their best hitter. Of Seattle’s 90 hits as a team Polanco has 13 of them and he is batting over .400.

    St. Louis Cardinals (6-8): The lineup is exceeding expectations

    The Cardinals offense has been elite to start the season, batting .278 as a team. Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado and Lars Nootbaar have all been off to solid starts playing major roles in the hot start for the Cards. However, the pitching has been pretty terrible leading to the 6-8 record.

    Tampa Bay Rays (6-8): Players you have probably never heard of are playing well

    Whats new? The Rays always do this. Guys like Jonathan Aranda, Kameron Misner and Jake Mangum have all been off to great starts for Tampa Bay. The Rays eye for cheap, under the radar talent is like no other front office in baseball.

    Texas Rangers (9-5): The rotation has been money

    Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle, Jack Leiter and Jacob DeGrom have all pitched well to start the year in the Rangers rotation. The lineup has seen its struggles, but with the strong performance of the rotation, they give Texas a chance to win virtually every night.

    Toronto Blue Jays (8-7): Bo Bichette and George Springer are back

    In order for the Blue Jays to compete in a loaded division this season, they absolutely needed these two to hit. Both Bichette and Springer have done just that, and played key roles in the Jays solid start.

    Washington Nationals (6-8): The future is bright

    Anyone who knows what they are talking about could have told you this pre-season and they are being proved right. James Wood, Keibert Ruiz, CJ Abrams, Mitchell Parker and MacKenzie Gore are all young up and coming players off to great start’s. Oh by the way just wait until Dylan Crews gets himself on track; the future is as bright in Washington as anywhere else in baseball.

    Sources:

    Baseball Reference

    Baseball Savant

    FanGraphs

    MLB.com

    Statmuse