By Jonah Drew

Record: 97-65

Baltimore had been one of if not the most miserable franchises over the last half decade. Coming over from Houston in 2018, GM Mike Elias has built this organization through the Draft. Although it has taken a long time to translate to big league wins, he has slowly accumulated a gluttony of organizational depth and it burst on the scene in 2023. Led by Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, and an absurd amount of young talent the 2023 Orioles won the most games in the American League with 101. Even though the eventual champion Ranges bounced them in the ALDS it was still a very very successful season. Unfortunately, they will be without arguably the best closer in baseball in 2023, Felix Bautista, due to Tommy John. This injury was more than offset by a blockbuster move, sending Joey Ortiz and D.L. Hall for former Cy Young winner, Corbin Burnes to headline their rotation.In other bad news, breakout star Kyle Bradish will apparently try to pitch through a UCL injury, which sounds like a recipe for disaster, and more specifically Tommy John Surgery. Although I believe a slight bit of natural regression is likely, I still think this young core will progress and put together a Great 162.

MVP: Adley Rutschman

It is a pretty simple formula, where Adley goes, winning follows. He did nothing but win at Oregon State in his career up in Corvallis. We know what he has done for Baltimore since being called up in 2022. The Orioles got off to a bleak 16-24 start in 2022, then they called up Adley Rutschman, they went 67-55 the rest of the way, even competing for a wild card spot, something they had not done in quite some time. Adley was tremendous in 2023, posting a 128 OPS+ and a 4.3 bWAR. Crazy part is , this may have been a down season for him analytically speaking, Adley put up a 5.3 bWAR in just 113 Games, As a rookie no less. Adley’s impact goes beyond the stat sheet though, he is held in an extremely high regard for his game calling and overall leadership. Although he is beat out by many from a raw numbers standpoint, there are very few players that have as much of an affect on winning as Adley Rutschman. He represents a turning point in the direction of the Baltimore Orioles.

Cy Young: Corbin Burnes

Corbin Burnes won the NL Cy Young back in 2021 with one of the more dominant analytical seasons in the last decade with an ungodly 2.00 xERA. ’22 and ’23, while elite by almost anyone else’s standards, were both slight under performances relative to expectation. 2024 is walk year for Burnes and he has the ability to make himself a boatload of cash. Burnes move from American Family Field to Camden Yards will benefit him greatly. The left field in Camden Yards was pushed back before the 2022 season and has made it impossible for right handers to pull balls for Homers. I expect Burnes to contend for the AL Cy Young this season with help from his new ballpark.

Breakout: Grayson Rodriguez

In his first 11 Major League Starts, the former top pitching prospect was absolutely anemic with a 7.33 ERA. Rodriguez was far from living up to the massive hype surrounding his inaugural Big League season. He went down to AAA to get his mechanics sorted out and boy did he ever. He finished the season on a high note to say the least, with a 2.64 ERA and a 2.17 ERA in the months of August and September respectively. Rodriguez two main secondary offering were both elite in 2023, a slider and a changeup. Opponents hit .201 vs his Changeup and .155 vs his Slider. I expect it to be Rodriguez as Burnes robin in 2024, rather than a limp Kyle Bradish.

ROTY: Jackson Holliday

Jackson Holliday was far from a sure thing to go 1.1 in the 2022 Draft. For a long time it was the now struggling Druw Jones expected to be taken first overall. It is safe to say Baltimore looks to have made the overwhelmingly correct decision. Holliday is the Number 1 prospect in baseball according to many media outlets(Although I disagree). Jackson looks like a 5 Tool prospect with a plus-plus hit tool which has allowed him to absolutely mow down minor league pitching all the way through AAA in just his 19 Year Old season. All indications are that Holliday will be the Second Baseman of the Baltimore Orioles come opening day. I expect the power to take a decent while to fully come through, maybe even next year or later but the elite approach, elite bat to ball and Plus Speed/Defense should be more than enough to make for a very solid rookie campaign.

Sources:

Baseball Reference

FanGraphs

StatMuse

Baseball Savant