Diamond Metrics

  • Juan Soto Has Shuffled Crosstown

    By Joe Browne

    Tonight, Juan Soto and the New York Mets came to an agreement on a 15 year deal worth 765 million dollars. Soto inked the richest contract in professional sports history tonight, surpassing Shohei Ohtani and the contract he inked with the Dodgers last winter. A historic moment in the history of the Mets franchise and further proof that the Yankees are no longer the only big time spender in New York. Soto earned himself this mega-payday for a multitude of reasons. First, his track record for a free agent is unmatched and like nothing we have ever seen before. Soto has already hit 201 homers and accumulated a 36.4 bWAR. Second, he is only 26 years old. To have a player of his caliber at that young of an age hit the open market is extremely rare. So rare that it has never really been seen before. His age and already fleshed out track record earned him this mega deal. Another reason why Soto generates so much value is his unmatched ability to reach base. Throughout his career thus far, Soto has walked 769 times and struck out only 696. There is not another hitter in recent history that owns that elite of a K/BB ratio. Despite all of this, many will raise the question of him potentially being overpaid. The answer would be yes, he is overpaid but that is the price it took to bring him to Queens and that is the one Steve Cohen had to pay. The 765 million is what the market called for and Cohen and the Mets rose to the occasion. 

    Looking at it from the Mets perspective they landed their guy and the counterpart to Fransisco Lindor at the top of their lineup. Two guys who will be perennial MVP candidates in the National League for years to come and two top 10 players in the game. If the Mets are able to bring Pete Alonso back this lineup looks absolutely lethal. Lindor, Soto, Vientos, Alonso and Nimmo would make up arguably the best first five of any lineup in baseball. New York will be riding high off of their magical 2024 playoff run at the start of 2025 and are in a prime position for a World Series run. Looking at it from the Yankees viewpoint is a bit different. Do not get it twisted, the Yankees are still very good and will win in 2025. The money that could have gone toward Soto will now be spread out across multiple players. Some guys to look out for would be: Alex Bregman, Christian Walker,  Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Santnder, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried just to name a few. They still have the best player on the planet in Aaron Judge and a built up pitching staff. While it hurts to lose Soto’s production in the lineup Brian Cashman and co. will look to bring in multiple bats to fill that void in true moneyball style.

    Soto is far from a perfect player because of his rather spotty defense. David Stearns despises outfielders who can not field their position but when a guy swings a stick the magnitude of Soto, he makes an exception. The defense could prove to be a problem but the Mets will do their best to hide Soto with strong defensive counterparts in the outfield like Tyrone Taylor, Jose Siri and Brandon Nimmo. The Mets are definitely not done with their offseason moves, they have a lot more position players and pitching needs they have to attend to. The focus on Soto the last few weeks was evident and now that they have landed him they can move onto other priorities. The bullpen could use some help and the rotation probably needs one more solid arm. Also, the Mets have to decide how they want to round out the bottom of their lineup behind the star studded top of the order. 

    A monumental moment in not just Mets history but also baseball history was seen tonight. Juan Soto, one of baseball’s brightest and biggest stars, jumped to the crosstown rival for 765 million dollars. When you take a step back and really think about it, it does not really even seem real that this took place tonight. The Soto Shuffle in Queens for the next 15 years is going to be electric to say the least. 

    Sources:

    Baseball Reference

    Baseball Savant

  • The 2024 New York Mets Were One of a Kind

    By Jonah Drew

    Pete Alonso, The Most Mets Player Of All, Gets His All-Time Met Moment

    Coming off of a 101 win season in 2022 expectations were sky high in Queens heading into 2023. In addition, the Mets added Justin Verlander and Kodai Senga, only brightening the clubs’ outlook. Unfortunately, things did not go as planned for the Amazins’ and after a disastrous start, Billy Eppler waived the white flag. He traded David Robertson, Max Scherzer, Mark Canha, Justin Verlander, Tommy Pham, Dominic Leone, and Adam Kolarek for a number of prospects headlined by Luisangel Acuna, Drew Gilbert, and Ryan Clifford. Finishing the season 75-87, the organization seemingly had their sights set on the future.

    Mets Owner Steve Cohen knew whole sale changes had to be made. Those changes started with bringing in David Stearns, one of the most accomplished and well respected executives in the business, to be the President of Baseball Operations. Subsequently, Stearns brought in former Yankees Bench Coach Carlos Mendoza to replace Buck Showalter as Mets Manager. Although this decision came with plenty of questioning but as was the case with most of Stearns moves, it was a smashing success. Despite Steve Cohen’s bottomless pockets, Stearns mainly operated under the radar in the offseason. He acquired NY native Harrison Bader, J.D. Martinez, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and Tyrone Taylor among a slew of low profile acquisitions. While the Mets were expected to be competitive, external expectations were more directed toward 2025 and beyond. Nobody thought the Mets would be legitimate contenders as soon as 2024.

    The Mets looked to be proving the doubters right early on, getting off to an absymal 0-5 start, including a classic Mets/Rhys Hoskins scuffle, before they finally got on the board thanks to a walk off single off the bat of Tyrone Taylor. This coming after being no hit into the 9th inning and an infamous quote from the great Gary Cohen in which he proclaimed the Mets had hit “rock bottom”. This walkoff seemed to ignite a run for the Mets as they would go onto win a series in Cincinnati, miraculously win a series in Atlanta, and come back home to take two out of three from Kansas City. Finishing out a successful home stand, they swept the Pittsburgh Pirates out of town in a three game set. Sitting at 10-8, the Mets found themselves in a solid spot, especially considering nightmare start to the season. With that said, the real test was looming, a 3 game set versus the eventual champion Los Angeles Dodgers. The Mets actually passed this test, but it did come at a price, the Mets lost Francisco Alvarez, who was off to a fantastic start, for a significant period of time. This injury really took the wind out of their sails as they lost a series in San Francisco and lost a series to St. Louis back at Citi Field. This St. Louis series did show a flash in the pan. The Mets had just called up Mark Vientos in a pinch and he delivered in the final game of the series, hitting a walk off tater in extra innings. Despite his clutch moment, Vientos would be sent down just a couple of days later, this was far from the last of Mark Vientos though. Sitting at 14-13, this would be the last time the Mets would see the bright side of .500 for a very long time as a free fall would ensue.

    Over their next 28 games, the Mets would go a whopping 8-20, and this wasn’t just your run of the mill slump, the Mets were finding ways to lose and crumbling in the process. This stretch included a game losing home plate call review, countless blown leads, emotional lashouts, cheating allegations, suspensions, and all of the aforementioned “Lol Mets” moments looped into one: The Jorge Lopez Incident. On May 29th, the Mets were played the final game of a three game series vs the Dodgers, a series that would end in a sweep. In the 8th inning of a 9-3 ballgame, Jorge Lopez was on the mound, facing Freddie Freeman. In a 2-1 count, Lopez missed with a slider down and in, Freeman checked his swing, as confirmed by 3rd base umpire, Ramon De Jesus. Lopez took great exception to this essentially meaningless call, barking at De Jesus vigorously. Subsequently, Lopez was ejected and as he walked off the field, he chucked his glove over the dugout, and into the stands. When asked about the situation in the post game presser, Lopez stated “I am on the worst team in the whole f*cking MLB”. Mets reporter Steve Gelbs even gave Lopez a chance to rescind his statement but instead he doubled down. Obviously, the Mets were quick to DFA Lopez as they deemed his actions detrimental to the team. The Mets were about as down and out as a team could possibly be, from an outsider perspective, the team was falling apart. There was no coming back from this, or so we thought…

    Amidst this nightmare run there was one bright spot, the Mets called up Mark Vientos, for good this time. Vientos would go onto be the team’s second best hitter, behind Francisco Lindor(who I’ll touch on later). Vientos would post a 135 OPS+, hitting numerous clutch homers down the stretch. They also made another call up, one that signified the end of the skid, and the beginning of an unforgettable season, Jose Iglesias. Jose Iglesias, AKA Candelita was a journeyman middle infielder who signed a minor league deal the offseason prior. He would go onto not only be absurdly productive, posting a 3.1 win season in just 85 games, but also completely transcend the vibes of this team. Candelita is not just his nickname, it is his artist name. Iglesias was a part-time ball player and full time Latin singer, and it just so happens he dropped his first song, OMG, just a couple of days after he was called up. Without Jose Iglesias, 2024 likely goes down as just another forgettable, lackluster Mets season. In reality, 2024 will go down as one of the most memorable Mets seasons’ ever, in large part due to Jose Iglesias.

    After a 9-19 month of May, the Mets knew they had to pick things up quick if they wanted to salvage their season. This started with a tremendous June, in which they won 19 games and only lost 9. The vibes were especially high after a win over the Astros on June 28th, the Mets held an on field concert for Candelita in which he sung his trademark song OMG. OMG would go on to be the emblem of this improbable run from here on out. Rolling into July with a full head of steam, the Mets continued to win. They went 17-10 in July. Miraculously, the Mets sat at 57-51, just a couple months after most talking heads had declared their season was over. The Mets did leave July with a couple of new toys, specifically former enemy, Jesse Winker. This was a test to see how fast a fanbase could go from hating a player, to loving them. Spoiler alert: very quickly.

    August was a bit of a down month by the OMG Mets standards, who all of a sudden have the standards of the murderers row Yankees. The Mets went 15-13 in the month of August, their worst month since their catastrophic may, but still not terrible. In the middle of the month, they played a home series versus a solid Baltimore Orioles team. They took two out of three in this series but the two wins came with a couple of the most electric moments of the season. The first one came from a walk off homerun off the bat of a struggling Francisco Alvarez. The second came from another walk off nuke, this time via Jesse Winker. Alvarez and Winker are two of the more confident players in MLB so it was not a surprise when these two essentially had a pimping competition. After each of their respective homers, they both hit brash bat flips and took there sweet time getting around the bases. Just another month of pure electricity from team who seemingly does not know how to not have fun.

    September was a do or die month filled with nail biters and a whole lot of scoreboard watching. Coming into the month in a dead heat with both the Diamondbacks and the rival Atlanta Braves, the margin for error was slim to none. It felt the none of these teams would lose a game, making the wild card race tight as could be. After a series win over Philadelphia at home, the Mets were headed to Atlanta for a series that would more than likely decide their fate. The first game was a dud as the Mets looked lifeless in a loss to the Braves. But, in what felt like some sort of divine intervention, the remaining two games were rained out. With those games postponed in Atlanta postponed, the Mets shifted their focus to the Brewers. Once again though, they fell flat on their face, losing miserably in each of the first two games of that series. However, with their backs against the wall, needing a win in the final game of the series to keep their season alive, the Amazins’ came through. David Peterson pitched lights out and the Mets gutted out a much needed 5-0 victory in Milwaukee. For the rest of MLB, the regular season was over, not for the Mets and Braves though. Those two teams had a double date on September 30th to decide the NL wild card. Watching at home, the Diamondbacks needed either team to sweep the double header, with a split, they would be eliminated. The first game was the greatest baseball game I have ever personally laid my eyes on. The Mets trailed 3-0 all the way up to the top of the 8th. That was until they hung a 6 spot after finally knocking Spencer Schwellenbach out of the game. This lead unfortunately did not hold as the Mets bullpen handed the lead right back, allowing a 4 run eighth inning. With the game sitting at 7-6 Braves, the Mets were 3 outs away from the brink. Enter Francisco Lindor, this team’s best player and leader, with their backs against the wall, he did the thing. He hit a clutch 2 run shot to put the Mets back on top, where they would stay thanks to a classic Edwin Diaz edge of your seat, shutout ninth inning. Despite dropping the latter game, the Mets had done it. From down and out, from 19-31, the New York Mets had qualified for postseason baseball.

    The Mets were headed to Milwaukee to play a 3 game wild card series. A place that has haunted them in the past, against a team that had their number in the regular season. You would not have known it in Game 1 though as the Mets steamrolled the Brewers in a Game 1 victory. Game 2 was looking promising before Phil Maton blew the lead late with back to back jacks from young phenom Jackson Chourio and Garrett Mitchell to send this series the distance. Game 3 was an absolute barn burner, as starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Tobias Myers both twirled gems. However, Jose Butto cracked out the Mets bullpen and allowed solo shots to both Jake Bauers and Sal Frelick. Headed into the 9th inning, the Mets chances were slim. They were facing Devin Williams who had been essentially untouchable all year long. As we know though, this team just does not subscribe to disbelief, as Lindor drew a walk and Nimmo got a knock, up came Pete Alonso. Alonso had one of the greatest five year stretches any Met has ever had, but with his free agency looming, 2024 was not his best year. In fact, the inning prior he dropped a pop up that had Brewers fans laughing in his face. With that said, Pete Alonso dug his feet in for what could have been his final at bat in the blue and orange. In storybook fashion, Alonso drilled a ball the opposite way that just barely snuck over the fence in right field. Shakespeare could not have written that script, it felt as if time had stopped, as if earths could have collided. In a poetic moment, Pete Alonso got his iconic Mets moment, a moment that will forever be enshrined in the heads of Mets fans everywhere. Former Brewer, Jesse Winker tacked on another run and the Mets headed into the bottom of the 9th up 4-2. David Peterson, who had been a terrific starting pitcher for the Mets all season, shut the door. As if this game wasn’t poetic enough, the game ended on a 6-3 double play. Francisco Lindor to Pete Alonso, ball game over. Series over. On to Philly.

    Two bitter rivals, two passionate fanbases, and two damn good baseball teams. This National League Division Series was setting up to be a classic. Instead, the Mets embarrased the Phillies. In game 1, the Mets trailed late as they so often did, and as they did even more often, they fought back. In a collective effort, the Mets got to the Philly bullpen, hanging five in the 8th inning and one more in the 9th for good measure. Game 2 seemed to be following a similar script, the Mets trailed going into the 9th before Mark Vientos tied the game with a 2 run shot. However, the Mets failed to hold on as Nick Castellanos hit a walk off single in the bottom of the 9th. This did not kill the Mets momentum as back at Citi Field for the first time in a long time, the Mets drubbed the Phillies, beating them 7-2 behind seven strong innings from Sean Manaea, who had been great all season by the way. With the Phillies one game away from throwing a 95 win season down the drain, they got off to a 1-0 lead in Game 4. That was until Francisco Lindor happened, again! With the bases loaded in the bottom of the 6th, Francisco Lindor hit the homer heard around the five boroughs, a grand slam to put his team on top. Fitting that the greatest player the Mets have had in a very long time, a man who posted one of the greatest seasons from any met ever, would win get them their biggest series win in a decade. I not say enough about what Francisco Lindor was for this Mets team, he posted a 7 win season, and was an impeccable leader for a group that never flinched in the face of adversity.

    This unfortunately, is where the magical run comes to an end. The ran into a superteam in the Los Angeles Dodgers. They were able grit out a couple of wins in this series but in the end it was not enough. The Dodgers won the series in six games and would eventually win the World Series over the Yankees in five games. Of course though, this Mets team fought their absolute hardest, to even take two games from that buzzsaw of a ballclub is something to be proud of.

    As a Mets fan myself, I believe that I speak for Mets fans globally when I say this. Going through the trials and tribulations of the 2024 Mets is something I will never forget. I highly doubt a sports team will ever make me feel the way that the 2024 Mets did. From the magic of Grimace, to on field concerts, to countless clutch comebacks, this team was something else. As for when this one of a kind season finally came to a close, I felt an unfamiliar feeling. As a New York sports fan it is in my DNA to be angry, lose my mind, and scream. However I did not feel that way, I felt a way that I am not capable of putting into words. There is only one man who can contextualize the way Met fans like myself felt on that fateful Game 6 night, Howie Rose. So in the words of Howie Rose, “If you are emotionally invested in this Mets team and you’re sad right now, it’s certainly understandable. But I promise you that won’t take long to wear off … Because once the immediate disappointment … here wears off, you’ll realize what an incredible ride this team took you for this year. Started out 0-5, showed some signs of life before they fell to eleven games under the .500 mark, and a lot of people had them written off right there.

    The 2024 Mets were a baseball team like no other.

    Sources

    Amazin Avenue

    Baseball Reference

    Baseball Savant

    Lohud

    MLB Film Room

    Statmuse

    USA Today

  • NL West Team Grades

    By Joe Browne

    Los Angeles Dodgers: A+

    The formula is simple, win the whole thing and you earn yourself an A+ grade. This year the Dodgers built, competed and conquered with their superteam. Following an embarrassing and disappointing NLDS exit in 2023, the Dodgers spent over one billion dollars this past offseason to build this championship club. My good friend Jonah wrote a great article on this team a few weeks back that goes into more detail. So, when you are done reading this one, head back on over to that one and give it a read. Anyways, it was not an uber- dominant regular season for LA in 2024. Sure, 98 wins is a whole lot but they fell short of that 100 win mark which we have seen them perennially reach year in and year out. However, when it mattered most they came through in the postseason. The signing of Ohtani and his historic season will get all the eyes but Teoscar Hernandez was invaluable to this team’s success. He rounded out the lineup perfectly and had huge hits in the NLDS against San Diego to will LA to a five game series win.  The best part, this team is not stopping anytime soon and will be very active again this offseason. If the Dodgers win it all again in 2025, we will have a dynasty on our hands.

    San Diego Padres: A-

    A major bounce back year in 2024 for San Diego following a disappointing 2023. This team played amazing in the second half and established themselves as the top dog in the Wild Card race. Many thought after the Soto was traded that this team would regress. That was not the case at all. Jurickson Profar was probably the best player in the National League through the first two months of the season. That type of a production from a historically average player was definitely not on my bingo card this year. San Diego also received a huge breakout performance from the main piece in the Soto deal, Micheal King. He pitched very well all season but was nails in October when it mattered most.  In the postseason, they handled the Braves quickly in the Wild Card and moved onto the NDLS. There they had the Dodgers on the ropes up 2-1. Then the offense went to sleep in games 4 and 5 and the Dodgers took full advantage. A disappointing end, but a big step forward for this franchise. They have some key free agents coming off the books including the aforementioned Profar. As always, A.J. Preller will be super aggressive and do whatever he can to try and bring a World Series to San Diego. They could use another frontline starter to pair with Cease, King and Darvish due to Musgrove’s injury. Interested to see what the future holds for the Friars.

    Arizona Diamondbacks: B

    Following a run all the way to the World Series in 2023, Arizona missed on the postseason entirely in 2024. It was not the worst season ever, 89 wins is nothing to scoff at, but they played inconsistent ball all year long. The main reason for this was the underperformance from their starting rotation. They made two key additions in the offseason to the rotation in Jordan Mongtomery and Eduardo Rodriguez. Both guys had very disappointing 2024 campaigns. Montgomery was so bad that he was demoted to the bullpen later in the season. Rodriguez had an injury riddled year and only made ten starts. Arizona had the best offense in baseball scoring a league best 886 runs. Their pitching staff gave up the 5th most runs, allowing 788 runs. So, the best offense in baseball was wasted due to the pitching staff being so bad. Their 2023 World Series run was built off weaker offense and stronger pitching. Wild how much difference a year can make. Christian Walker’s free agency will be the story this offseason. His production on both sides of the ball in the last handful of years has been elite and he is a huge reason why this franchise has been competitive. Only time will tell what’s next for the Snakes. 

    San Francisco Giants: C

    The Giants were the most bland and mediocre team in all of baseball in 2024 with an 80-82 record. This group has some talent but lacks that spunk and “it” factor that is needed to put a winning product on the field in this league. Matt Chapman got a big time payday last offseason and it paid off in his first season in the Bay. He posted a 5.5 fWAR which was 4th best in the National League. Outside of Chapman, this team lacked an elite punch. Blake Snell when he was healthy was dominant but yet again he heads for free agency after using his opt-out. Expect San Francisco to be in the running to re-sign their ace but no guarantees. Longtime executive Farhan Zaidi was let go following the year in favor of franchise legend Buster Posey. Posey, who just retired three years ago, is immediately put in the most important position in the entire organization. It will be interesting to see what type of roster he will look to put together to become competitive in this very tough division.

    Colorado Rockies: D

    Another year of Rockies baseball, yet another 100+ loss season. Once again, the worst pitching staff in the league who managed to allow a league-worst 929 runs. That was the most in baseball by a long shot. However it was not all bad, guys like Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovaer both had great seasons. Both guys can do it on both sides of the ball as well. Doyle is an elite defensive center fielder and Tovar took home NL shortstop Gold Glove honors this season. Also, Micheal Toglia quietly popped 25 homers in 2024. Those three guys are all relatively young and are pieces that Colorado can build around for the future. The story will forever be if this franchise could somehow find a way to build a pitching staff that would survive in Coors Field. Time and time again that has proved to be mission impossible. Do not expect much spending from the Rockies this offseason, Dick Monfort is dirt cheap and should be forced to sell the team. 

    Sources:

    Baseball Reference

    FanGraphs

    MLB.com

    Statmuse