In Depth Analytical Analysis of All Things Baseball

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  • Top 10 Catchers in MLB

    By Jonah Drew

    William Contreras is Baseball's Hardest Hitter, and Also, Maybe, Its Weirdest - Brewers - Brewer Fanatic

    *To clarify, while 2024 is absolutely baked into these lists, they are far from the sole factor. These lists are meant to be a projection of how I believe these players will perform in 2025

    1. William Contreras, Milwaukee Brewers

    Contreras is the best catcher in baseball with the bat by a relatively wide margin, he posted a .281/365/.466 triple slash with 23 homers. He led all catchers in wRC+ in 2024, posting a mark of 131. The next best came from Cal Raleigh up in Seattle with a 117, meaning that the second best hitting catcher in baseball is still 14% worse than William Contreras. Although the defensive metrics had Contreras as a league average defender in 2024, he has previously graded out as a 90th+ percentile defender. I am willing to guess he is somewhere in the middle. As an elite hitter and above average defender at just 26, the future is bright for Contreras.

    2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners

    The gap between Raleigh and Contreras as overall players is ever so slight. In fact, they actually posted an identical 5.4 fWar this past year. However, Raleigh is pretty clearly the inferior hitter, slashing .220/.312/.436. Raleigh did hit 34 jacks in a very pitcher friendly T-Mobile park though. There is no better power hitting catcher than Cal Raleigh, he boasts a 96th percentile barrel rate and an 88th percentile xSLG. As much pop as Raleigh has, his primary selling point is his defense. Catching a stellar Seatlle staff, Raleigh posted 98th percentile Fielding Run Value and Framing marks. Raleigh is sneakily just 28 years old and he projects to be one of the premier 2 way catchers in the game for years to come.

    3. Patrick Bailey, San Francisco Giants

    Patrick Bailey is simply an all world defensive catcher. In 2024, Pat Bailey was a 4.3 win player according to fangraphs, good for 3rd in MLB. The crazy part about this though, Bailey posted just an 81 wRC+. I hear you Bailey deniers, “How can someone with an 81 wRC+ be the 3rd best catcher in baseball”. While I do hear you, I have reason to believe that Bailey will take a sizable jump as a hitter. He posted a .281 wOBA but an above average .319 wOBA. He batted just .234 last year but he posted an xBA of .258. He also ranks well above average in batted ball metrics such as Avg. Exit Velocity, Hard Hit Rate, and LA Sweet Spot%. All the peripheral metrics point to positive regression for Bailey.

    4. Gabriel Moreno, Arizona Diamondbacks

    I am Gabriel Moreno’s number one supporter, ever since was a prospect in the Blue Jays organization, I have bought in to the hype. The idea of a catcher with that level of both bat to ball and defense is a rarity in today’s game. In 2024, Moreno slashed .266/.350/.380 with 5 pumps and 3 bags. He was also a high level defender, posting defensive metrics in the upper quartile. From an advanced metrics standpoint, Moreno posted expected metrics that were comfortably above average. He also walked at an elite 11.7% clip while striking out just 14.8%. That on-base ability with his defense makes for a supremely valuable player.

    5. Austin Wells, New York Yankees

    At this point your probably wondering where are all the big names, Rutschman!?, Smith!?, Realmuto!?. While you will see all of those names a little bit later on those lists, I value high level defense in catchers more than any other position and 3 of my top 4 are elite defenders, with the other being the best offensive catcher in baseball. With that said, In his rookie year, Wells slashed .229/.322/.395 with 13 homers. He also posted strong predictive metrics, such as a 76th percentile xwOBA and a 60th percentile barrel rate. Like Bailey, Wells is also an elite defender. He posted a 96th percentile Fielding Run value and Framing value. Wells has every chance to be the next great Yankee catcher.

    6. Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles

    There is no sense in denying that Adley Rutschman had a down year in 2024. After posting back to back 800+ OPS seasons, Rutschman barely cracked 700 in this past season. In 2023, Rutschman posted a 93rd percentile xwOBA, in ’24, just a 47th percentile xwOBA. He also hit the ball significantly softer than he did the year prior with his batted ball data landing him in the 30th percentile range. His defense also took a step back. Although he was an elite blocker, Rutschman really struggled as a farmer, landing him in the 23rd percentile of that niche. I personally believe framing to be the most important defensive job of a catcher, which is very contreversial and could be an article itself.

    7. Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers

    I do not feel confident in putting Will Smith this low. I would not be surprised if Smith made me look like an absolute fool. I am not denying Will Smith’s bat, he has been one of the most consistent offensive catchers over the last half decade. Specifically, Smith has never posted an OPS+ below 116 in his entire career. What I am questioning is his glove, which if I have not established by now, is my main priority when evaluating catchers. Frankly, Smith was absolutely abominable behind the dish last year. He was a 1st percentile framer and a 3rd percentile blocker. His only saving grace was his 100th percentile CS above average. Will Smith is a horrible defender but an equally great hitter.

    8. Yainer Diaz, Houston Astros

    In 2023, Diaz’ rookie year, Yainer ranked. He slashed .282/.308/.538 with 23 pumps, good for a 127 wRC+. The thing is, Dusty Baker seemingly had a Martin Maldonado obsession because de spite Diaz vastly outperforming Maldonado by every relevant measure. This led to him only seeing 317 plate appearances. In the following year, first year manager Joe Espada let him loose. He slashed.299/.325/.441 with 16 homers, good for a 117 wRC+. A slide dip but it was to be expected as he had to bear a full catching load an nearly double the plate appearances. His defense was very shaky though as he posted a measly -7 fielding run value. If Yainer can clean up his defensive woes, he will have every chance to be an elite catcher.

    9. Alejandro Kirk, Toronto Blue Jays

    Alejandro Kirk has fallen off a bit, that much is undeniable. However, it is also undeniable that he is supremely valuable behind the plate. He did not have his best year AT the plate though. He hit to a 94 wRC+ with just 8 homeruns. On the other hand, defensively he was one of the leagues’ best. He was second among qualified catchers with a 14 fielding run value, only behind number 3 on this list, Patrick Bailey. There are also reasons to believe that he will improve with the stick. He posted a 58th percentile xwOBA and a 66th percentile xBA. The expected stats have him as an above average hitter, pairing that with elite defense excites me for his potential

    10. Francisco Alvarez, New York Mets

    Francisco Alvarez was the number 1 prospect in all of baseball just a couple of years ago and the jury is still very much out on him. What makes his so situation so strange is that as a prospect, he was viewed as a blue chip bat but a very questionable defender. 2 years into his big league career now, we can officially label that grave misinterpretation. Alvarez has posted elite defensive metrics in each of his first 2 MLB seasons while drawing rave reviews from every pitcher he has caught, including tough customers like Max Scherzer. On the downside, Alvarez has struggled at the plate, relative to expectations of course. He posted a 102 wRC+ with 11 home runs and less than promising defensive metrics. He has showed flashes of dominance but he will need to have more sustained success to really live up to hype he was billed with.

    Sources

    Baseball Refence

    Baseball Savant

    Fangraphs

  • AL West Team Grades

    By Joe Browne

    Houston Astros: B-

    2024 was undoubtedly the worst season in recent history for the Astros. Despite that, they once again still managed to win the AL West. The season started really bleak, on May 8th  Houston sat at 12-24 and 8.5 games out of first. Later, on June 18th they were an even 10 games out of first. Following that, Houston ripped off 7 straight wins to get themselves right back into the AL West race. From there on out the Astros played very well going 55-33 the rest of the way home. The real failure came in the postseason when they were swept in the wildcard by an upstart Detroit Tigers squad. An inexcusable playoff loss if you ask me, the team with quite literally zero playoff experience prevailed against the one with the most playoff experience. Kyle Tucker turned in an absolutely stellar season and if it had not been for his midseason injury, an MVP case may have been able to be made. The same was true for Yordan Alvarez who has fully established himself as one of the most consistent, clutch and best overall hitters in the entire sport. Despite being in his mid-30’s, Altuve turned in yet another great season further cementing his eventual spot in Cooperstown. The pitching staff really showed up when it mattered most in the second half. Especially Hunter Brown and Josh Hader who were both really bad at the beginning of the season Then, they were both able to put together solid years come seasons end. Young guys like Roenel Blanco and Yanier Diaz were steady presences the entire season who gave Houston a big boost. Moving into next year, this lineup needs some more depth. An injury or two would be killer for this lineup with the way it is currently constructed. They have holes at both corner infield spots assuming Alex Bregman is not coming back in free agency. Dana Brown has a lot on his hands this offseason. Houston will look to make the right moves to get back to the World Series.

    Seattle Mariners: D

    Eighty five wins a season ago is not a bad mark but when you take into account Seattle’s midseason collapse it warrants this poor mark. This starting pitching staff is nothing short of excellent. Seattle has created themselves a five headed monster with the likes of Gilbert, Castillo, Woo, Miller and Kirby. At one point Seattle found themselves up an even ten games in the AL West. At that same point (June 18th) they were also thirteen games above the .500 mark. Unfortunately for them, as they began to falter the Astros got piping hot. Allowing Houston to rally themselves back into division contention and eventually take over. Seattle’s ultimate downfall was their inability to put runs on the board all season long. The moves Jerry Dipoto made last offseason were looked at as the ones that would round out and fill out this lineup. Both Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver were disastrous additions and overall net negatives. Combined with disappointing offensive seasons from two mainstays in the Seattle order in Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford. They also desperately traded for Randy Arozarena at the deadline in hopes of him being able to jumpstart their offense as a whole. Yet again, another move that did not work out. All of this led to the midseason firing of long time skipper Scott Servais. He was then replaced by Dan Wilson who made no difference in the long run. Having possession of arguably the best starting rotation in all of baseball will always keep Seattle in the hunt, but serious lineup additions will be needed if they want to return to the postseason.

    Texas Rangers: D

    The Rangers 2024 campaign was further evidence that “World Series Hangover” does in fact definitely exist. They struggled all season to get consistently hot and found themselves falling into mediocre territory. Texas returned virtually the same lineup that won the World Series in 2023 but the script flipped in 2024. Guys like Heim, Semien, Garcia and Taveras did not put up the same production they did for the World Series winning squad. This team still has a boatload of talent but 2024 was simply just not their year. That pool of talent includes Corey Seager who if not for an injury would have been another guy to be a serious MVP contender. He popped thirty homers in just 123 games to the tune of a 145 OPS+ this year. Any lineup that contains a player that can put up those numbers is going to be one to look out for. Moves will have to be made by Chris Young to bolster up this team a bit. With that being said, it’s early but be on the lookout for them in 2025 because I am expecting a big bounce back year from the champs.

    Oakland Athletics: D+

    The Oakland or now better known as just the Athletics did not lose over 100 games in 2024! That’s a win in my book for a franchise that has experienced such miserable baseball these last few years. 93 loses this season is certainly a lot but nothing compared to years past. The A’s had some guys establish themselves with really great years in 2024. Brent Rooker, Mason Miller, Shea Langeliers and Lawrence Butler all put together really nice seasons. Finally, the A’s have some players they can hopefully begin to build around for the future. Also, prospects like Jacob Wilson and Nick Kurtz are guys that will prompt A’s fans (if there are any left) to begin looking forward to the future. Who knows, maybe a fresh start outside of Oakland is the boost this franchise needed to start stringing together some success.

    Los Angles Angels: F

    The Angels are a flat out disaster. The post-Ohtani era got off to a hot start in 2024 with a 99 loss season. Once again, Mike Trout had a crushing season ending injury that sidelined him virtually the entire season. When healthy, he showed flashes of greatness once again but we did not see enough from him in 2024. Simply put, outside of the first ballot hall of famer in Trout and flamethrowing close Ben Joyce the Angels have nothing appealing about them at all. They are bad, boring and take a backseat to the Dodgers in Los Angeles. It boils down to never being able to develop any starting pitching and on top of that seeming to constantly give out bad contracts in free agency. In all honesty, nothing is going to change with this franchise until Arte Moreno finally decides to sell the team.

    Sources:

    Baseball Reference

    Baseball Savant

    FanGraphs

    MLB Pipeline

  • Top 10 Starting Pitchers in MLB

    By Jonah Drew

    Red Sox no match for Tarik Skubal as Tigers eke out victory

    *To clarify, while 2024 is absolutely baked into these lists, they are far from the sole factor. These lists are meant to be a projection of how I believe these players will perform in 2025.

    1. Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

    Not to pat myself on the back, but I can’t say I did not see this grand breakout coming from Tarik Skubal. The signs were clearly there, in 15 starts in 2023, Skubal pitched to a 2.80 ERA with a 2.30 xERA, a 7.29 K:BB ratio, and a 51.8% GB%. This is why when he pitched like the clear best pitcher in baseball, it was no surprise. Specifically, Skubal threw 192 innings, striking out 228 batters at a 30.3% clip. He pitched to a 2.39 ERA, with a 2.72 xERA and a 2.49 FIP. Skubal also notably won 18 games, helping bring playoff baseball back to the motor city. There are no metrics that point to Skubal regressing in the near future, I see him repeating his near perfect season and competing for another Cy Young.

    2. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

    In an era of baseball in which volatility from Starting Pitchers is at an all time high, Zack Wheeler is a breath of fresh air. Since he went to Philadelphia, there hasn’t been a safer bet for 150+ innings at a sub 3 ERA. The only season that Wheeler hasn’t posted a sub 3 ERA in Philly was 2023, when he posted a respectable 3.61 ERA with ERA estimators landing him in the low 3s range. Last year was another great one for Wheeler as he posted a 2.57 ERA in exactly 200 Innings. Wheeler strikes out batters at a 75th percentile 26.9% clip while walking just 5.0% of batters. He does this with a very sustainable six pitch, headlined by a fastball that ranks in the 100th percentile of run value. Zack Wheeler is, and will continue to be the most consistent starting pitcher in all of baseball.

    3. Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

    I get it, ranking a 22 year old who has not spent a full season in the majors as the third best pitcher in all of baseball is a bit edgy but I am willing to take the risk. The LSU Product was absolutely dominant in his brief AAA stint, posting an absurd 35.2% K-BB. After earning a call up in May, Skenes was absolutely dominant from start to finish. He threw 133 Innings with a ridiculous 1.96 ERA. His peripherals back up his baseline numbers, he posted a 2.53 xERA and a .193 xBAA. He continued his swing and miss prowess, striking out 33.1%(28.7% whiff rate) of batters while walking just 6.2%. Skenes throws 6 pitches headlined by an ungodly fastball and a wipe out slider. Paul Skenes looked unhittable last year and with a full season sample size he looks to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.

    4. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

    When the White Sox first announced Garrett Crochet would be moved into the starting rotation, I questioned the move. Crochet had not been a starter since his time at Knoxville and he had already dealt with arm issues out of the pen. Fourtunately for Crochet, I was very wrong as he posted a great season, earning himself a ticket out of Chicago and into Boston. Crochet posted a 3.58 ERA in 146 innings pitched. That line is highly misleading though, Crochet did not miss a single start but the White Sox placed an innings limit on him from August on. His ERA estimators are also much more glamorous, he sits at a 2.83 xERA, 2.38 xFIP, and a league best 2.53 SIERA. He struck out 35.1% of batters while walking a measly 5.5% of batters. Especially with his recent move from Chicago to Boston, Crochet is a reincarnation of a certain lights out southpaw and if you can’t figure out who I am talking about then I implore you took take a look at Number 6…

    5. Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers

    For someone who has 2 Cy Young Awards, the respect levels around Blake Snell are awfully low and for the life of me I can’t comprehend it. Coming off his second Cy Young award, Blake Snell couldn’t even find himself a new home until March when he finally inked a 2 year deal that he would eventually opt out of. Due to the prolonged off-season Snell got off to a very slow start to the 2024 season but after he got his legs under him he would proceed to dominate from there on out. He finished the season with a 3.12 ERA in 104 Innings with impressive peripherals. He posted a 96th percentile 2.57 xERA, 98th percentile .178 xERA, and a 2.43 FIP. Snell is essentially unhittable, his only fault is his 10.5% walk rate which he cancels out with his 34.7% strikeout rate. Snell is elite and if you can’t see it after all he’s done I do not have much for you.

    6. Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

    It felt obvious that we would see a Chris Sale resurgence in Atlanta because well, it’s Atlanta. I doubt anyone saw this Cy Young performance coming after a significant stretch of supbar results and inavailability. In his first season south of the Mason-Dixon, Sale put up a career season. He threw 177.2 Innings at a league leading 2.38 ERA, striking out 32.1% of batters while walking just 5.6%. From a peripheral standpoint, Sale was even better. Sale posted an unbelievable 2.08 FIP, 2.80 xERA, 2.13 xBAA, and a .261 xwOBA. His slider was one of, if not the best in all of baseball last year, it generated a .205 wOBA and a 42.7% whiff rate. With solid tertiary pitches and strong batted ball data to boot, Sale looks to continue his second wind into 2025.

    7. Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

    2024 was a rare blip in an otherwise absurdly durable career for Gerrit Cole. Excluding the 2020 season of course, the last time Cole did not start more than 30 games was 2016 with the Pirates, that was before this year of course. Cole missed most of the first half due to an elbow injury, limiting him to just 17 starts. In those 17 Starts, Cole posted a 3.41 ERA. His peripherals were not sexy either, he posted a 3.64 xERA and a 3.69 FIP. While he was far from a Top 10 pitcher in 2024, I am willing to bet on his track record. In his last healthy season, he was the best pitcher in baseball, winning the Cy Young and posting a 2.63 ERA. One down season is not enough to completely deter me from Gerrit Cole.

    8. Corbin Burnes, Free Agent

    Since breaking out and winning the Cy Young back in 2021, Corbin Burnes has been great ever since. In his first season in Baltimore, Burnes was excellent. He threw 194.1 Innings at a 2.92 ERA. However, while he is still a tremendous pitcher, he has slightly regressed analytically. He is only striking out 23.1% of batters and he posts a 3.34 xERA. On the other hand, at his peak he was striking out over 35% of batters and was posting a 2.00 xERA. Burnes is still great at generating weak ground balls and limiting free passes so his floor remains very high but without his elite swing and miss stuff of old, his ceiling is limited. This was not meant to be Burnes slander, after all I have him ranked in my top 8. All I’ll say is be weary if your team is the one that pays him an insane amount of money.

    9. Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals

    Cole Ragans transformation is absolutely unexplainable. Up until the deadline in 2023, Ragans was nothing more than a mop up guy with a career 5.32 ERA for the Texas Rangers. That was until he was sent to Kansas City in a deadline deal that brought Aroldis Chapman to the lone-star state. Ragans somehow gained multiple ticks on all of his pitches and proceeded to pitch to a 2.64 ERA. In 2024, Ragans made 32 starts, totaling 186.1 Innings Pitched at a 3.14 ERA. His peripherals were also very strong, he posted a 3.31 xERA and a 2.99 ERA. He struck out nearly 30% of batters with his only Achilles heel coming in the form of a 8.8% BB%. With his new found elite stuff, Ragans is going to be a premier southpaw for the foreseeable future.

    10. Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers

    All reports are that Tyler Glasnow’s elbow is fully healed and he will be full-go from the jump in 2025. If these are true, then watch out because this Dodgers rotation could be one of the greatest starting rotations ever assembled, in large part due to Tyler Glasnow. It is also noteworthy that Glasnow has pitched over 120 Innings in back to back years which does ease some of the injury concerns that have plagued him in the past. In his first year in LA, Glasnow pitched 134 innings at a 3.49 ERA. While those stats are solid, they do not do his performance justice. His peripherals are highly impressive, he posted a 2.65 xERA and a .195 xBAA, both of which have him in the top 7 percentile in all of baseball. He also strikes out batters at a 32.2% clip, boasting a video game curveball that batters hit .098 on and whiff on a 47.5% clip. If Glasnow can stay healthy, fingers crossed, Glasnow has a chance to dominate.

    Sources

    Baseball Reference

    Baseball Savant

    Fangraphs