By Jonah Drew

1. Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks

We saw what we thought was peak Ketel Marte in 2019 when he posted a 6.9 bWAR season with a 154 OPS+. In the subsequent years, he really struggled to meet this standard, not posting a season of above 2.0 bWAR until 2023, when he finally showed flashes of the Ketel Marte of old, posting a 4.8 bWAR. In 2024 though, he showed he was all the way back, posting a 6.8 win season, slashing .292/.372/.560 with 36 homers and great defense. Nothing about Marte’s peripherals suggest that any sort of regression is looming either. Assuming health, Marte looks to have dethroned Jose Altuve as Baseball’s best second baseman for good.

2. Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers

Marcus Semien is on the opposite side of the perceived age spectrum, he is the same age as Jose Altuve at 34. Semien was actually second among second basemen in War with in 2024 of 4.2, despite posting a 99 wRC+. This is kind of the appeal with Semien, regardless of whether of not he hits at the level he is capable of, he will still be a highly productive player because of his elite glove. He posted 19 OAA in 2024, Semien is an elite defensive Shortstop who happens to be playing Second Base. Semien still hit for power and if he can even be in the 110-115 range in terms of wRC+, he could very easily be a 6 or so win player.

3. Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

How old do you think Jose Altuve is, 36? 37? Wrong and wrong again, Jose Altuve is still just 34 years old, no, he is not in his prime years any more but he certainly isn’t some senile old man. There is no denying that Jose Altuve is on the downturn, he posted a .789 OPS in 2024 whereas he posted a .920 OPS in 2022 and a .915 OPS in 2023. The main drop off though has come on the defensive side of the ball. He was in just the 11th percentile in 2024 when he has posted above marks in virtually every other year of his career. It does give me give me some hope that he was able to steal 22 bags last year, showing that he still has some athleticism left in the tank. I understand this is on the low end and I am fully aware there is a large probability that Jose Altuve makes me look like an absolute fool but this is really what I believe.

4. Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays

Lowe has had his battles with injury since he came up in 2018, but when healthy he’s has been one of the best power hitting second basemen in all of baseball. In those years, he did not post a sub 100 wRC+ one time. Specifically, in 2024, Lowe posted a .244/.311/.473 with 21 homers, good for a 123 wRC+. Lowe’s peripherals also point to success as he posted an 83rd percentile xwOBA and a 91st percentile xSLG. Lowe is pretty average defensively, he has consistently been in the 40-60 percentile range in most defensive metrics. His main detractor is his K:BB ratios as he only walks 7.8% of the time while striking out 26.4% of the time, he also whiffs at a 32.7% clip. Brandon Lowe is really the only player at the position with a realistic shot to hit 30+ homers, and with no other major holes in his game, that makes for a supremely valuable player.

5. Brendan Donovan, St. Louis Cardinals

Donovan absolutely has a case for the most underrated player in all of baseball and I seriously considered putting him Top 3 on this list. Brendan Donovan plays just about every position on the diamond(With 2B as his primary) at a high level, he gets on base at an elite clip, and he hits for solid power. He posted an 89th percentile OAA and a 66th percentile Fielding Run Value. As just a rookie in 2022, Donovan posted a near .400 OBP at .394 and though he has slightly regressed since(.342 in 2024), he still possesses elite On-base skills. Donovan also mustered up 14 jacks and although he doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard, he does leverage his angles with the best of them, posting a 36.6% Sweet Spot rate, helping him to a .419 xSLG. I know this will be a hot take, and it could come back to bite me but I am buying all the Brendan Donovan stock.

6. Nico Hoerner, Chicago Cubs

Nico Hoerner has a very interesting profile, he consistently posts mid 90s Z-Contact, he is a 95th percentile base runner, he in the 91st percentile of xBA, he is in the 92nd percentile in Squared up rate, and he in the 99th percentile in both whiff rate and strikeout rate. Hoerner is in the upper echelon of most of the metrics associated with “small ball” and this has helped him post 4 win campaigns in each of the past 3 seasons. We know Hoerner is a great small ball player but what about the other end of the spectrum? Well, that’s where it gets a bit dicey, he is in the 1st percentile in Barrel Rate, the 5th percentile in Average Exit Velocity, and the 7th percentile in both HH% and Bat Speed. If you aren’t fluent in advanced analytics, Hoerner is an elite contact hitter with great speed but his only defect is, he has a noodle bat.

7. Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves

Ozzie has long been a polarizing figure in the baseball community, some people think he is among the elite second basemen and others believe he is severly overrated. I tend to lean somewhere in the middle. While Albies is somewhat inconsistent, I believe a lot of it can be chalked up to injuries that are pretty unlucky, rather than one lingering injury that hampers his long term outlook. 2024 was not his best year as he only made 435 PA and posted a .707 OPS. The alarming thing about this year was though, was that his peripherals were resembling of a below average bat as he posted a .302 xwOBA and a 32.0% Hard Hit Rate. 2023 though, was a very strong year for Albies as he posted an .849 OPS with 33 Homeruns. In this season, his peripherals were spectacular as he posted a .340 xwOBA. It his hard to imagine a 28 year old just completely losing all his impact without injuries playing a role, I am banking on those peripherals jumping back up to where they were in years past.

8. Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds

Unfortunately, a shoulder and later a rib injury robbed us of seeing Matt McLain in 2024, but don’t let that make you forget the stud that this man is. In his rookie campaign in ’23, he posted an .864 OPS with 16 HRs and 14 SBs in just 365 at bats. McLain is a perfect fit for Great American Ballpark, also known as Great American *Small*park. This is because of his ability to utilize launch angles, he was in the 94th percentile in LA Sweet Spot% in 2023. Specifically, McLain doesn’t have to get all of a baseball for it to leave because a ball hit say 93 MPH but is hit at a 27 degree launch could get out in GABP whereas it wouldn’t in most other major league parks. McLain can do it all, he is a plus hitter with good pop that plays as plus, and he posseses great speed and defensive ability.

9. Luis Garcia Jr., Washington Nationals

To be transparent, this is the lowest I would accept Luis Garcia on this list and I really do not like having him this low. 2024 was a breakout year for Garcia, he slashed .282/.318/.444 with 18 Homers and 22 Stolen Bases. He is also a fantastic defender, posting a +5 OAA and a +4 Fielding Run Value. His peripherals are also impressive, he posted a .331 xwOBA, a .278 xBA, and a .452 xSLG. My lone gripe with Garcia would be that he is a slightly swing happy, leading to him walking just 5.1% of the time. Outside of that though, Garcia is a 24 year old who will be a perpetual 20-20 candidate with great defense, those types of players do not grow on trees.

10. Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers

I am just about the biggest Brice Turang supporter you will find. I get it, there is nothing sexy about a middle infielder who posted an 87 wRC+ with a slugging percentage below .350. I am also not going to act like I am expecting some magical light switch to flip and Turang to start to rake, none of his peripherals point to that, I really don’t expect his OPS to go too far north of .700. His value does not come with the bat though, it comes in just about everything else. For starters, Turang is an all world base stealer, he reached the 50 plateau in 2024 and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him go for 60+ in the years to come as the stolen base environment increases and his on base skills develop. He is also an elite defender of the position, posting 6 outs above average and a 5.6 defensive fWAR. Turang is a refreshing blast from the past, contact first, base stealing middle infielder.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

CBS Sports

Fangraphs

By Joe Browne

*To clarify, while 2024 is absolutely baked into these lists, they are far from the sole factor. These lists are meant to be a projection of how I believe these players will perform in 2025.

1. Mason Miller, Athletics

Miller was nothing short of lights out in his first full season in the bigs. Ranking in the 100th percentile in the following stats: xERA, xBA, Fastball Velo, Whiff % and K%. On top of that his baseline numbers were also exceptional. Posting a 2.49 ERA and locking down twenty eight saves for A’s. Miller was able to finish with those numbers despite his subpar September, posting a 4.15 ERA in that month. Miller’s dominance will continue next year, particularly because of the expectation that the A’s will be in a position to win more games with their improved roster. More opportunities for saves and more high leverage innings will be able to fully display Millers dominance for everyone to see.  

2. Emmanuel Clase, Guardians

Clase comes off a 2024 campaign where he made an American Cy Young argument as a reliever. Posting a sparkling 0.66 ERA while locking down forty seven saves, Clase looked better than ever a season ago. However, his poor playoff performance left a bad taste in everyone’s mouths. Clase surrendered three homers en route to posting a 9.00 ERA in October. Do not be fooled by his poor showing in the postseason, Clase put together one of the most remarkable seasons by a closer ever in 2024. He comes in at second on the list for the sheer fact that it will be virtually impossible for him to post another sub-1 ERA season in 2025. 

3. Felix Bautista, Orioles

Unfortunately, Bautista missed all of 2024 due to a severe elbow injury but he is on track to be Opening Day ready for 2025. Due to Craig Kimbrel ultimately failing as their closer, Baltimore missed him dearly. Bautista and his electric fastball will be back in action next season locking down W’s for the Orioles. Looking back at the last season he pitched in 2023, Bautista posted a MLB best 44.3% Whiff% along with an MLB best 46.4% K%. He racked up 110 punchouts in just 61 innings to the tune of an elite 277 ERA+. Bautitsa is primed to reintroduce himself to baseball fans with a dominant 2025 on tap. 

4. Ryan Helsley, Cardinals

Helsley was quietly an elite closer for the Cardinals in 2024. Due to St. Louis never really being in the playoff hunt, Helsley’s phenomenal season generally went unnoticed. Locking down 49 saves on a team that only won 83 games is impressive. The strikeout numbers took a slight dip from previous seasons in 2024. This should not be a major worry, his elite stuff paired with his ability of limiting hard contact is a key. Expect for the strikeout totals to climb back to where they have been in prior years for Helsley in 2025 en route to another great year.  

5. Edwin Diaz, Mets

Diaz had an up and down 2024 following missing all of 2023 with a knee injury. He started off the season relatively strong but about two months in really began to struggle. Following a brief IL stint Diaz returned and looked dominant before getting popped with a ten game suspension in mid-June for alleged sticky substance use. Once he returned Diaz was dominant the rest of the way and pitched big innings down the stretch when the Mets seemingly could not lose. Do not let the 3.52 ERA fool you, the peripherals were once again elite. Posting a 2.49 xERA, .166 xBA and a MLB best 38.9% K%. Another key was when Diaz went away from his slider and began throwing more fastballs. This was key in his late season and postseason success in 2024. 

6. Andres Munoz, Mariners

Munoz had his best season yet in 2024 and it is a sign of what is to come in 2025. Posting a 173 ERA + paired with a 2.12 ERA. Both career bests thus far for the twenty six year old Munoz. An area of potential for Munoz is the rate at which he issued free passes in 2024. An 11.2% BB% and 3.9 BB/9 are both subpar marks. If he can manage to cut down the walks in 25, Munoz could easily be even higher up in this list entering 2026.  

7. Devin Williams, Yankees

The first name on this list that will be on a different team in 2025 as Williams was dealt to the Yankees in December. Williams only appeared in 22 games a season ago due to a major injury keeping him out for the first half of the season. When he was back healthy he was absolutely dominant posting a 341 ERA+ and 1.25 ERA. Despite surrendering a massive home run to Pete Alonso in game three of the Wild Card Series, Williams is still an elite closer. An argument could be made for him to be higher up on this list but he, like Munoz, has a walk problem and the change of scenery may hurt him. Yankee Stadium is a very hitter friendly park especially in the summer months when the ball is going to fly. Williams has a tall task ahead of him, going from the closer in Milwaukee to the closer in New York is a big jump. 

8. Josh Hader, Astros

Hader’s first year in Houston was just fine. He showed flashes but was not the lockdown southpaw all the time that we have become accustomed to. Still managing to post an elite .173 xBA and 2.72 xERA suggesting that Hader ran into some bad luck in 2024. Also, he is still punching out hitters at an elite clip. However, he did get hit harder last year than usual. Year two in Houston will be better than year one, do not lose faith in Hader yet his track record is too strong to doubt. 

9. Cade Smith, Gaurdians

Cleveland had far and away the best bullpen in baseball in 2024 so they deservedly have two guys in this top ten. Cade Smith burst into the scene and was flat out dominant in 2024. Smith was a workhorse appearing in seventy four games and posting a 1.91 ERA. Smith had a MLB best +28 run value on his fastball. He is not the hardest thrower but his big frame is able to give that heater some extra life. Just like every other guy on this list Smith is an elite strikeout pitcher. The Guardians could not ask for a much better set-up to Emmanuel Clase in the ninth than Cade Smith in the eighth. 

10. Trevor Megill, Brewers

Rounding out this list is a guy that most casual fans have probably never heard of. Trevor Megill stepped up big time in Devin Williams’ aforementioned absence in the first half of 2024. Megill is an absolute flamethrower averaging 98.8 MPH on his heater a year ago. Paired with his 6 ‘8 frame and high arm angle, it’s not easy to see the ball coming out of Megill’s hand. Those factors translated into some success in 2024, posting a 2.72 ERA and fifty punchouts across 46.1 innings. Megill’s main problem is that he lacks a secondary pitch. He only threw his curve 28% of the time last season. With Williams shipped off to the Bronx, Megill will get the nod as the Brewers closer to start the year. If he can tap into a secondary pitch to play off his elite heater, sky’s the limit for Megill in 2025. 

Sources:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

FanGraphs

StatMuse

By Jonah Drew

*To clarify, while 2024 is absolutely baked into these lists, they are far from the sole factor. These lists are meant to be a projection of how I believe these players will perform in 2025

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

As a highly heralded prospect and son of a hall of famer, expectations for Vlad have been sky high from the jump. At times, the pressure has seemingly been too much for him as after his MVP caliber 2021 campaign he did not come anywhere close to his standards in the following 2 seasons. That all changed in 2024 as we finally saw the Vlad we were promised. He posted a triple slash of .323/.396/.544 with 30 homers, good for a 166 OPS+. His peripheral batted ball data is also second to none at the position, landing in the top 5 percentile in nearly every single meaningful metric. We have seen 2 elite seasons, as just a 25 year old, Guerrero will look to make 2024 his norm and there is no reason to believe it won’t be.

2. Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies

It is not talked about enough that Bryce Harper seemlessly transitioned from a full time corner outfielder to a first baseman with supposedly zero prior experience. While First Base defense is not the most important thing, it is still very impressive that he has become one of the best defenders at the position. Not to drop any ground breaking news but Bryce Harper rakes. In 2024, he posted a 149 OPS+ with 30 pumps, yet another feather in Harper’s cap. Harper still hits the ball extremely hard, posting a 48.2% hard hit rate. He also walks more than anyone else in baseball, posting a 12% walk rate, helping him post a .373 OBP. Harper has made his 330 million dollar contract look like a severe underpay.

3. Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers

I think that the Top 3 first basemen in baseball are pretty solidified at this point in time, Guerrero, Harper, and Freeman are the trio, and likely in that order as well. While Freddie is getting up there in age at 35, he is still hacking it with the best of them. In 2024, he slashed .282/.378/.476 with 22 HRs, good for a 137 wRC+. Obviously, Freeman is aging gracefully and his peripherals point to this continuing. I say this because even last year, when he posted on of the best season’s of his career, posting a .977 OPS, he did not hit the ball all that hard. His game is predicated on angles and his plate discipline, posting percentile marks in Sweet Spot% and BB% in the Top 1 percentile pretty consistently. Freddie Freeman is and will continue to age like fine wine.

4. Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves

Even Matt Olson will tell you, 2024 was a down year. He slashed .247/.333/.457 with 29 HRs, good for a 117 wRC+. A good year yes but when you compare it to his 2023 season, it makes you believe we could see him kick it into another year in 2025 and beyond. In 2023, he posted a ridiculous .993 OPS with 54 jacks. While his peripherals do not point to him hitting to the level he did in 2023, they still point to a very strong season in coming. He was above the 80th percentile mark in almost every batted ball metric and he posted a .341 xwOBA which puts him in the 78th percentile. It is also noteworthy that Olson posted 4 Outs Above Average, landing him in the upper echelon of first base defenders. A bounce back feels all but inevitable for Matt Olson in 2025

5. Christian Walker, Houston Astros

I love the Christian Walker move to Houston and I simply can’t understand those that believe that this is Jose Abreu 2.0. Walker has been one of the most underrated players in all of baseball for years now and I am elated that he is now in a major baseball market. In 2024, Walker posted a 119 wRC+ with 26 homers, a slight dip from his 33 and 36 homers in the previous two seasons. His peripherals are also impressive, he posted an 86th percentile xwOBA, an 80th percentile xSLG, and a 90th percentile barrel rate. I expect these numbers to translate well in 2025 as Walker is going from one of the most cavernous parks in baseball in Chase Field to one of hitter friendly parks in all of baseball in Minute Maid Park. He is also an ELITE defender and by far the best defender at the position, posting a +10 fielding run value. Walker in Houston should be a sight to see.

6. Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays

If you just looked at Yandy you would guess that he is a pure slugger based on his absurdly strong build but instead, he is actually a very technical and refined as a hitter. Diaz peaked in 2023, when was one of the best hitters in baseball regardless of position, posting a 157 OPS+. 2024 was not as kind to Diaz as he posted a respectable 119 wRC+ and a .755 OPS. Looking a little deeper excites for his outlook though, he posted an xwOBA of .336 and a .277 xBA. He also hit the ball pretty hard, posting a 92.2 MPH average exit velocity and a 48.7% Hard Hit rate. What really gives him a unique profile for a first baseman is his plate discipline. He chases just 22.8% of the time and whiffs at just a 14.2% clip, landing him in the 97th percentile. From a more base line perspective, he strikes out just 15.3% of the time while walking at an above average clip. Yandy rakes, simple as that.

7. Pete Alonso, Free Agent

Although he did salvage some of it with his Postseason heroics, Pete Alonso lost himself a significant amount of money this past season. In his contract year, he posted a triple slash of .240/.329/.459 with 34 homers, a significant dip from his 40 and 46 in the 2 seasons prior. His peripherals are pretty strong though, he posted an 80th percentile xwOBA, an 82nd percentile xSLG, and an 89th percentile barrel rate. He also doesn’t chase very much and boasted a 10.1% BB%. My 2 main concerns with Alonso are his defense and his launch angles. Starting with the latter, for players that rely on the long ball as much as Alonso does, launch angles are vital and posting a minuscule 30.5% sweet spot rate does not bode well for his success. As for his defensive woes, he posted a -9 Outs Above average and an 11th percentile Fielding Run Value. Especially with the lack of suitors, Alonso’s pay day may be a lot smaller then some anticipate.

8. Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals

With Vinnie it has been more hypothetical than anything else. He is coming off back to back seasons with exactly a .761 OPS. I have to say though, I really believe in his formula to become a highly productive player. He is a 27 year old, he hits the ball hard, he does not swing and miss or strike out, and he is a good first base defender. Pasquantino posted an average exit velocity of 91 MPH and a hard hit rate of 46.5%. He also boasts ridiculous plate discipline and bat control, posting a 96th percentile whiff rate of 14.5 and a 96th percentile strikeout rate of 12.8%, both of which are the best at his position. As for the latter, he is in the 68th percentile of fielding run value and the 81st percentile of outs above average. Pasquantino is one of the most well rounded first basemen in baseball.

9. Josh Naylor, Arizona Diamondbacks

Josh Naylor has been a key cog in a lineup that has found itself playing high stakes playoff games consistently. While I do expect that to be the case in 2025, it will be in a new home, Arizona. In 2024, Naylor slashed .243/.320/.456 with 31 Homers. This was actually a slight contrast from his 2023 when he was more contact oriented, hitting .308 with just 17 Homers, but posted an .843 OPS. This went with Cleveland’s organizational movement toward impact and a slight straw away from the emphasis on bat to ball. He still does have very solid bat to ball for a first baseman though, He posted a 64th percentile whiff rate and an 80th percentile strikeout rate. With solid general peripherals, Naylor seems headed for yet another strong season, this time in the desert.

10. Nathaniel Lowe, Washington Nationals

It feels like first basemen have been passed around like nobodies business this offseason. Whether that is because of front offices valuing overall value rather than just the bat or whatever it may be, that is not for me to decide. Another name on the laundry list is Nathaniel Lowe, who went from Texas to the capital in D.C. In 2024, Lowe slashed .265/.361/.401 with 16 Homeruns and a 121 wRC+. Lowe has been highly consistent since he debuted, never once posting a wRC+ below 100 and peaking at 141 in 2022. Even if his peripherals profile isn’t perfect, his elite walk rates allow him to consistently be a solid bat.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs