By Jonah Drew

For clarity purposes, I would like to set the record straight on what defines a “breakout player”. At least the way I see it, a breakout player is not someone who was a blue chip prospect and is following his expected trajectory in the form of a star level ascension in his second year. Specifically, the player can never have been a consensus top 10 prospect at any point or posted 2.5 fWAR season in their career. A breakout player does not have to play at a superstar level, rather they need to merely be a productive player because to be on this list in the first place you can’t have had a massively productive season in the past.

1. Lenyn Sosa, Chicago White Sox

I do not expect there to be an overwhelming number of bright spots for this Chicago White Sox team. Coming off of a historically pitiful season, the White Sox faithful will be looking to cling on to any bright spot they can get and I think they are in for pleasant surprise with Lenyn Sosa. On the surface, Sosa has not shown much promise, posting a 0.1 fWAR, 80 wRC+ season in 2024. When you look deeper though, you see that Lenyn Sosa could be a diamond in the rough. Sosa’s peripherals are intriguing, he batted .254, but his expected batting average was .278, his OBP was a minuscule .283 but his xwOBA was a respectable .316, and his xSLG is also 69 points higher than his actual slugging percentage. From a batted ball perspective, he utilizes launch angles as well as anyone, posting a 99th percentile sweet spot rate. He also has a solid hit tool, posting a sub 20% whiff rate and an above average strikeout rate. I do wish he was a bit more selective as he swings at an obscenely high percentage of his pitches, leading to a 3.3% walk rate. Sosa actually has a very underrated bat and I believe the ball just did not bounce his way in 2024, look for that to change in 2025.

2. Michael Toglia, Colorado Rockies

Michael Toglia can flat out hit, no if and’s or buts. In 2024, UCLA product posted a .767 OPS with 25 Homers, notably also swiping 10 bags in the process. The Coors tax is real though, as his seemingly solid .767 OPS translated to a 98 wRC+, meaning he was technically a below average hitter. This along with the marginal value he provides defensively, led him to a negligible fWAR total of 0.4 in 116 Games. With his peripherals, I struggle to see a way that total doesn’t multiply. He posted a .358 xwOBA(90th pct.) and a .503 xSLG(93rd pct.). This stems from the fact that he hits the seams off the ball, posting a 92.1 Average Exit Velocity(91st pct.). His ability to generate barrels also makes him a spectacular fit for Coors Field, his 98th percentile Barrel Rate comes from the fact that 50.2% of his batted balls come in at 95+ MPH, the real kicker is the 39.2% Sweet Spot Rate. With Toglia, you take a 30+% K% because you know he will reciprocate with comfortable double digit walk rate. Toglia’s analytical profile has checks every box for a corner infield masher.

3. Alek Thomas, Arizona Diamondbacks

Coming into the big leagues, it was expected that Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll would spearhead the Diamondbacks’ outfield. To this point, Carroll has certainly held up his end of the bargain but Alek Thomas has left a bit to be desired. Many are out on Alek Thomas, but I believe we are about to see him fulfill the prophecy. Due to surface level under performance and injury, we only saw 95 ABs from Thomas in 2024, in which he posted a measly .603 OPS. Although it may not seem like it, Thomas actually took strides offensively. He posted a 47% Hard Hit Rate and a 91.2 Average Exit Velocity, both of which are in the upper echelon. This led him to a .278 xBA and a .446 xSLG, both of which were leaps and bounds above their baseline counterparts.

4. Christopher Morel, Tampa Bay Rays

Out of any of the 5 players on this list, Christopher Morel is the player I’m most confident in to breakout. Morel has always had the tools, even back in Chi town, Morel could hit the piss out of the baseball, fly around the bases, and throw the seams off the ball. He is yet to put it together though, in 2024, he hit below the Mendoza line and posted a .634 OPS. I still have faith that Morel can be a productive hitter and he feels like a classic case of the Rays working their magic and helping him to connect the dots. He posted a 69th percentile Barrel Rate and a 10% Walk Rate, he clearly has potential. The weirdest part of his profile though is that he is anemic defensively, I don’t expect this to continue though. He has a cannon for an arm and his a great athlete, he has mechanical issues yes but who better to smooth those kinks out than Tampa.

5. Maikel Garcia, Kansas City Royals

This time last year, Maikel Garcia was probably the most popular breakout pick in analytical circles. However, a calendar year later it seems like everyone is has given up on him. Not me though, looking at Garcia’s analytical profile, I still see loads of potential. On the surface, Garcia did not hit well in 2024, posting a .613 OPS with just 7 homers. When you look deeper though, you see the same thing that excited so many people last winter. The 2 metrics that create the stat Barrel Rate, are Hard Hit Rate and Sweet Spot Rate. Garcia is solid in both of those metrics, posting a 65th percentile HH% and a 48th percentile SS%. Based on that, conventional wisdom would tell you that he would post at least an average Barrel Rate, but nope, he posted a 10th Percentile Barrel rate. That is statistically impossible and there is almost no way that holds true. He is also a very well rounded hitter, posting minimal whiff rates and taking his walks. On top of that, Garcia provides elite speed and defense stealing 37 bags and posting a 76th percentile OAA, meaning if he is even an average hitter, he could be a 4 win player.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

By Joe Browne

*To clarify, while 2024 is absolutely baked into these lists, they are far from the sole factor. These lists are meant to be a projection of how I believe these players will perform in 2025.

1. Jose Ramirez, Guardians

It is difficult to see anyone besides Ramirez topping this list. Ramirez has consistently put up MVP caliber after MVP caliber season en route to building himself a resume that may be Hall of Fame worthy when it is all said and done. The driving offensive force in Cleveland’s run to the ALCS a season ago posting a remarkable slash at .279/.335/.537 and tying his career high by smacking thirty nine homers. Also, falling just one homerun shy of the historic 40/40 club as he swiped forty one bags. 2025 could finally be the year that Ramirez takes home AL-MVP honors following his seventh season fishing within the top ten of voting. Ramirez will continue to cement himself as an all time great in 2025 and beyond. 

2. Austin Riley, Braves

Riley was consistently one of the best hitters in the game from 2021-2023 before a blip year in 2024. The 2024 campaign for Riley was an injury riddled and overall down season. Only playing in 110 games and posting his worst numbers across the board since becoming an everyday player in 2021. A respectable slash at .256/.322/.461 and nineteen homers is nothing to scoff at, just not the numbers we have come accustomed to with Riley. The reason why he is so high on this list is because of the belief that Atlanta’s lineup will overall be much better in ‘25. Every main hitter in the Braves lineup aside from Ozuna had down-years in ‘24. Also, the return of 2023 National League MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. will be a big shot in the arm for them. On top of that, Riley’s peripherals were on par with the rest of his career last season he just lacked results. Indicating that Riley ran into some bad luck and is due for a big time bounce back year in 2025. 

3. Rafael Devers, Red Sox

As Devers is in the midst of his prime it is abundantly clear he is one of the best pure hitters in all of baseball. Coming off another great year in 2024, Devers has cemented himself at the top of this list for years to come. While he has proved that his defense will always be subpar, his consistent offensive production over the years has more than made for it. The Red Sox arguably have improved the most out of any club this offseason; be on the lookout for Devers in big-time moments this season. 

4. Royce Lewis, Twins

Unfortunately, it is not smart to expect a full season out of Lewis but for the sake of the list it is a must. The former first overall pick is primed for a breakout campaign in 2025. In only 152 career games thus far, Lewis has slashed .268/.327/.497 en route to accumulating a 4.0 fWAR. For a player with that little of a sample size those numbers are exceptional. Even if Minnesota could get just 130 of the 162 games from Lewis in 2025, the production could be exceptional. 

5. Manny Machado, Padres

Even as Machado begins to play into his thirties, he can still hang with the best of them at the hot corner. Machado improved on a bit of a down 2023 with a much better 2024 season. Especially in the second half of the season where he really began to hit his stride. Manny slashed .286/.333/.543 and popped sixteen homers after the all star break last year. Also, his batted ball data improved from past seasons. With a few more strong seasons under his belt, Manny is well on his way to a surefire Cooperstown bid. 

6. Alex Bregman, Free Agent

Coming off a down-year in 2024, Bregman has struggled to find a new home thus far in free agency. 2024 was undoubtedly his worst full season in the bigs. The main issue for Bregman last season was his alarming dip in on-base percentage. He went from a .373 OBP from 2016-2023 to a lowly .315 in 2024. Despite that massive dip, Bregman still possessed an elite eye at the dish and only struck out 12% of the time. This massive fall-off in OBP led to his OPS being significantly lower than it has been in the past and reflected in his overall numbers. I still have full belief in Bregman’s ability to play at an elite level and hopefully he can find a new club soon for him to prepare for 2025. 

7. Matt Chapman, Giants

In his first year with San Francisco, Chapman was just about as good as we have ever seen him. Chapman accumulated a 7.0+ bWAR for the first time since 2019 and posted his best numbers across the board since that season. A major part of the wins he contributed to the Giants was on the defensive side of the ball. Historically, Chapman is one of the best we have ever seen at third base and 2024 was no different posting an elite eleven outs above average. Also, Chapman’s batted ball data was exceptional which could lead for an encore performance offensively. The elite defense will always serve as a backbone for Chapman’s value and anything extras he does offensively is a huge bonus.  

8. Mark Vientos, Mets

The entire look on Mark Vientos has completely flipped in the last calendar year. Vientos went from a player who was considered too good for triple A but not good enough for the big leagues to a cornerstone of the Mets future. While it is still unclear whether Vientos will play first or third base this year, he will find himself right in the middle of the Mets order. In just 413 AB’s Vientos smacked twenty seven homers and posted a .838 OPS. Including a good amount of those to right field showing off his elite power. He also added five more homers in the playoffs and they all came in big spots. The defense at third and swing and miss needs improvement but with experience it can come. Vientos proved himself not just to Mets fans in 2024 but also to all of the other fans in baseball. 

9. Isaac Paredes, Astros

Houston’s new third baseman comes off a down year split between Tampa Bay and Chicago. Paredes is primed for a breakout in Houston due to the home ballpark’s dimensions. He has hit a grand total of zero homeruns in his career that were not to his pull side of left field. Houston offers the shortest distance down the left field line which is going to play right into Paredes’ strength of pull hitting. Also, his elite eye at the plate is going to help him get on base consistently and be a driving force for Houston’s new-look lineup. The biggest downside with Paredes is his inability to hit the ball hard which has continually hurt him in his career. Expect 30-35 homers for Paredes in his first year in Houston. 

10. Max Muncy, Dodgers

The veteran Muncy rounds out the list coming off a shortened yet very productive 2024. As Muncy enters his mid-30’s it begins to get difficult to see him continuing to put up great numbers for LA. A power hitter like Muncy who has an elite eye and walks just about as much as anyone without striking out is very rare. Muncy has been a starter for the Dodgers for the last seven seasons. That is extremely impressive given the Dodgers commitment to always trying to improve their roster. Muncy has proved his value time and time again and stuck around for the long haul in LA.

Sources:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

FanGraphs

Statmuse

By Jonah Drew

*To clarify, while 2024 is absolutely baked into these lists, they are far from the sole factor. These lists are meant to be a projection of how I believe these players will perform in 2025.

1. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals

Bobby Witt unequivocally put up an MVP caliber season last year and if it weren’t for yet another historic campaign from Aaron Judge, he would have won the award. One could even make the argument that 2024 Bobby Witt Jr. was the best season of any shortstop in baseball history, that’s how insane it was. The 24 year old posted a 10.4 fWAR, slashing .332/.389/.588 with 32 homers and 32 stolen bags, just an unreal statistical season. I will spare you the laundry list but Bobby Witt Jr. is in the upper echelon is in just about every single predictive offensive metric. Oh by the way, he is also the best defender at the most valuable position on the diamond, posting a 99th percentile, 16 outs above average. He’s also the fastest man in baseball by sprint speed at 30.5 ft/s because why not right?!. Bobby Witt has been progressing exponentially and if he can continue to improve, I don’t think it’s hyperbolic to say he could be the greatest shortstop in the history of this game.

2. Corey Seager, Texas Rangers

For some reason that I can’t quite put my finger on, I feel like Corey Seager is being overlooked heading into 2025. I feel like people are forgetting that Corey Seager is a year removed from being a consensus top 5 player in baseball when he posted a 1.013 OPS in 2023 en route to a World Series ring and a World Series MVP. 2024 just wasn’t his year, he dealt with injuries, he dealt with egregious batted ball luck, and the Rangers as a whole just didn’t have it. Yet still, he posted an .865 OPS and 4.5 fWAR in just 123 games. While those stats are far from shabby, his peripherals lead me to believe that 2024 Seager is about to return. He posted quality of contact numbers that were nearly identical to that of 2023, including a .390 xwOBA and a .561 xSLG. Despite losing a step, Seager is still fabulous with the glove, posting a +4 fielding run value and 6 outs above average. Seager is elite, no way around it and I would not be shocked to see Seager spearhead another Rangers playoff run in 2025.

3. Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers

I really do not like the way the Dodgers are handling Mookie Betts, I don’t think he is a shortstop and to just throw him there out of “necessity” when not only do you have a solid SS on the roster in Miguel Rojas, but you also have an infinite amount of resources to go out and acquire somebody. With that out of the way, Betts posted a 141 wRC+ with a 4.4 fWAR. Due to injuries, Betts was not able to rack up counting numbers like he normally does, posting just 19 homers and 16 steals. What makes Betts so great is his hit tool, he whiffs below 15% of the time and only strikes out 11% of the time, all of this while walking at an 11.8% clip. Mookie Betts has been one of, if not the most consistently elite player in MLB and I see no reason why that continue in 2025.

4. Francisco Lindor, New York Mets

2024 was the best year of Francisco Lindor’s criminally underrated career as he spearheaded a long awaited culture change in Queens. From a numerical standpoint, Lindor slashed .273/.344/.500 with 33 bombs and 29 stolen bases. While these numbers are spectacular, they would have been significantly better if Lindor hadn’t started off the season with a dismal month of April. Lindor’s predictive metrics actually suggest that he got unlucky as he posted a .283 xBA, a .528 xSLG, and a .379 xwOBA, all of which are elevated from their baseline counter parts. You can’t talk about Francisco Lindor without praising his dazzling glove. Lindor posted a 99th percentile 16 outs above average and and a 96th percentile fielding run value. Lindor was elite in 2024, but it was far from his 100th percentile outcome, watch out if Lindor fixes his early season woes.

5. Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles

I refuse to let what Gunnar Henderson did in 2024 be glossed over. It is absolutely not normal for 23 year old shortstops to post 8 win seasons for contending teams, in fact it is absolutely freakish. The left handed shortstop slashed .281/.364/.529 with 37 homers and 21 swipes. His quality of contact was also tremendous as he posted a 53.9% hard hit rate, landing him in the 97th percentile, he also posted an average exit velocity of 92.8 MPH, landing him in the 94th percentile(Unsuprising as the two go hand in hand). He also has very good plate discipline, especially for a hitter his age. Henderson only chased 23.2% of the time and he walked 10.8% of the time. I can’t possibly overemphasize the fact that this is borderline unheard of for someone his age, unless your well, Bobby Witt Jr.

6. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds

Elly is an absolute freak of nature, and watching him play baseball is truly a euphoric experience that is rivaled by few. The scariest part of it all is that this is the worst Elly De La Cruz is ever going to be. In his age 22 season, De La Cruz posted a .259/.339/.471 with 25 home runs, and let’s see 67 STOLEN BASES, good for a 118 wRC+. He’s also elite with the glove, he posted 15 outs above average which only accounts for range, meaning it excludes his absolute cannon for an arm that lands him in the 91st percentile. As hard has he throws, he hits harder, he posted an average exit velocity of 91.8. If you know me you know that I am just about as analytically driven as they come, but when it comes to Elly De La Cruz there is something that can’t be quantified, there is an element of excitement that can only be felt through actually watching him play. No word describes Elly quite like the word electric.

7. Carlos Correa, Minnesota Twins

What Carlos Correa did in 2024 should not be overlooked. He was limited to just 367 plate appearances and yet, he still posted a 4.3 fWAR, for reference that is above an 8 win pace. Correa slashed .310/.388/.517, good for a 155 wRC+. Correa posted an absurdly balanced season, as I said, he posted a 155 wRC+, but he also posted a spectacular 74th percentile fielding run value. He didn’t chase, he didn’t whiff, he didn’t strikeout, and he walked at a good clip, everything you want out of a swing/take profile. His 90th percentile xwOBA of .358 suggests that he will continue to rake. Full transparency, I do worry about his health long term and that is really the only reason he isn’t higher on this list.

8. Willy Adames, San Francisco Giants

Willy Adames made himself some serious cash in 2024. If you told me that coming off of a .717 OPS campaign in 2023, Willy Adames would sign a 7 year 218 million dollar deal with the San Francisco Giants, I would likely have called you a madman. In 2024, Adames posted a .251/.331/.462 with 32 slams and 21 swipes. He is also plays solid shortstop defense, he posted 68th percentile range and a 75th percentile arm in 2024. With Adames, you have to be able to accept a mid 20s strikeout rate because in exchange he gives you a double digit walk rate and 30ish homers. Willy is a well rounded slugging shortstop who will rack up WAR.

9. Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies

Trea Turner has not played to the level of his peak in the years before he made the move to the city of brotherly love. In the 2 years before coming to Philly, Turner posted 6.4 and 7.1 win seasons respectively, in the 2 subsequent season he has posted 4.2 and 3.9 win seasons. Both of those metrics are very respectable, but not peak Trea Turner level. Turner swings a lot, posting a 54% Swing rate and a 34% chase rate which limits his walk rate and on base percentage. Stolen bases are also a hallmark of Turner’s game but 2024 was the first full season of his career in which he did not swipe 20+ bags and for and for an aging 31 year old that is alarming. I know this may sound very negative so I want to emphasize that Trea Turner is still a valuable player, hence why he is ranked as a top 10 player at a stacked position.

10. Dansby Swanson, Chicago Cubs

Dansby plays the shortstop position as well as just about anybody. Swanson posted 18 outs above average, good for the 99th percentile and a 97th percentile fielding run value. Swanson is a relatively average hitter, he posted a 99 wRC+ in 2024 but he usually lives in the 100-110 area with the best season of his career coming when he posted a 117 wRC+ in 2022 with Atlanta. He also has taken an uptick in his aggressiveness on the basepaths, tallying a career high 19 stolen bases this past season. A creme of the crop defender at a premium position who pulls his weight at the dish and adds value on the base paths? Yea I’ll take that out of my shortstop every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs