By Joe Browne

1. Milwaukee Brewers: 90-72

Death, taxes and the Milwaukee Brewers always finding a way to stay on top in this division. Last year, they traded Corbin Burnes and got immediately counted out and written off. They responded by winning 93 games and dominating this division for the entire season. This year, Milwaukee dealt star closer Devin Williams to the Yankees and yet they are still touted for a first place finish. The top of the order with Chourio, Yelich and Contreras is going to be just about as good as it gets. The supporting cast of Turang, Mitchell, Frelick and Hoskins will be able to pull their weight. The main strength of this club is going to be the defense. There are zero projected starters who are bad defenders. In fact, a majority of those same projected starters are actually elite defensively. This will be especially helpful when groundball guys such as Quintana, Koenig, Uribe, Peguro and Ashby are on the hill. Milwaukee has been top five in team ERA 3 out of the last 4 seasons despite never having the shiniest staff on paper. Once again, on paper this pitching staff lacks big names but somehow they always find a way to make it work. This is an improved division in 2025 but I still see it challenging for one of these other teams to leapfrog Milwaukee and take the top spot.

2. Chicago Cubs: 87-75

This Cubs team has improved, but are still a tier below the Brewers. The lineup is similar to the Brewers in the sense that their top of the order is very strong. Kyle Tucker will elevate this lineup to a level we have not seen them reach in a while. The impact he is going to bring is being severely underestimated. He was playing on an MVP level prior to injury in Houston last year.  Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ were both excellent at the plate last year and that production should carry over. Outside of these three at the top, the rest of the group is pretty average offensively. Top prospect Matt Shaw won the third base job this spring and he will join Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner in what will be a very strong defensive infield. Shota Imanaga was spectacular from the moment he stepped on a big league mound last season. He is an outlier in today’s game, despite not having an overpowering fastball he still has found success on the mound. Fellow southpaw Justin Steele will form a formidable 1-2 punch with Imanaga atop this Cubs rotation. Outside of those two, the rest of the staff should be solid. Ryan Pressly was acquired to be the new closer in another notable deal made with Houston this offseason. My doubts lie with this organization’s recent shortcomings in pitching developments. Some teams seem to always get the best out of their arms and the Cubs are not one of those teams. Ultimately, that is what is going to separate the Cubs from the Brewers. This team has improved but still lacks the completeness to top the Brewers and take this division crown.

3. Cincinnati Reds: 79-83

Cincinnati had a very complacent offseason in a window where they should be looking to improve their roster. Elly De La Cruz was both electric and successful last season blasting 25 homers and swiping 67 bags. All while playing elite defense, posting 15 OAA at shortstop. Matt McLain who missed all of last season will join Elly atop the lineup. His absence was certainly felt last year, Cincinnati’s offense saw a major dip in production from 2023 to 2024. Cincinnati dealt Jonathan India to Kansas City and later replaced him with former-Dodger Gavin Lux. That is a downgrade at second base. India was dealt for right hander Brady Singer whose underlying numbers suggest he is due for serious regression. Hunter Greene finally had his breakout season last year and solidified himself as the ace of this rotation. Still only 25 years old, Greene looks primed for a dominant prime in the next few seasons. The rest of the staff is not anything to write home about. This club has talent but a mediocre lineup at best and subpar pitching staff is not going to be a recipe for success in a stacked National League.

4. St. Louis Cardinals: 77-85

The Cardinals have dug themselves into a deep hole following an offseason in which they made virtually zero moves. No trades and the lone signing being veteran reliever Phil Maton. St. Louis is going to be a team to watch when the trade deadline rolls around to see who they are going to deal away. It’s clear Nolan Arenado’s best days are in the past and his no-trade clause fiasco this offseason was a bad look. Young shortstop Masyn Winn will be exciting to watch and hopefully he will take another leap forward this season. This rotation lacks firepower with the likes of Gray, Mikolas and Fedde. These guys are not bad but also are not great. By no means is this staff as a whole going to take the Cardinals completely out of games but also won’t keep them in games every night. This team is not going to be a threat in this division and in the grander scheme of things they won’t be a threat in the National League. Look for this roster to be very depleted following the trade deadline. Anyone who can be traded should be it is time to rebuild in St. Louis.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates: 72-90

It is pitiful that the Pirates are slated to finish dead last in this weaker division. They have arguably the best pitcher on the planet on their roster in Paul Skenes. At just 22 years old, Skenes enters 2025 as the betting favorite to take home the Cy Young award. It is going to be intriguing to see how many wins Skenes can will this Pirates team to this season. Reasoning being, this lineup is a bottom three unit in all of baseball. There are no threats outside of Bryan Reynolds and maybe O’Neil Cruz. Jared Jones, who like Skenes is a great young arm atop this rotation, is going to start the season on the shelf with some elbow problems. Skenes and Jones, when healthy, are really the only players on this roster worth paying attention to. In the grand scheme of things, the Pirates have five seasons including this one before Paul Skenes is a free agent. Meaning that they have four years left to put a competent team around Skenes before he goes elsewhere. I say four years rather than five because this team is going to be awful in 2025 so count this year out. Despite that, every single time Skenes toes the slab in 2025 it is going to have main event status.

Sources:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

FanGraphs

MLB.com

Spotrac

By Joe Browne

1. Atlanta Braves: 96-66

The Braves streak of six consecutive first place finishes in this division was snapped last year. The reason for this was actually quite simple: Atlanta’s best position player and best pitcher were both on the shelf virtually the entire season after suffering devastating injuries. Meanwhile the hitters that did manage to stay on the field massively underperformed. It was the starting rotation that kept the Braves afloat all season. Chris Sale won the National League Cy Young all while Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Schwellenbach pitched exceptionally alongside him. All of this culminated in a two game beat down by the Padres in the Wild Card. Now it’s time to throw last season out of the window and move on to bigger and better for 2025. Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider, the aforementioned players that got hurt early on in 2024 are both on track to probably miss the first month of 2025. When Acuna returns he will be back in his usual lead-off spot atop Atlanta’s order. Looking back at how Acuna came off the first ACL tear in the 2022 season is a good measurement for what kind of production we could see this year. He had a fine year in 2022, but undoubtedly the worst of his major league career. Do not expect a MVP caliber season from Acuna in 2025, but expect very solid production despite that. Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Michael Harris II are all due for major bouncebacks. All three of them had great batted ball data last season despite the face numbers to back it up. The expected return to form of those three sluggers is going to pay major dividends for this team. On top of that, Jurckison Profar, who is coming off a career year, gets added to this group. He slashed .280/.380/.459 with 24 homers across 158 games with San Diego a season ago. His addition flew under the radar, but at still just 32 years old Profar is going to be a nice shot in the arm for this group. Also, Marcell Ozuna has hit 79 homers in the last two years combined and had the best season of his career in 2024. If you can’t already tell, this lineup is stupid good. However, the lower third may be a little shaky. Atlanta will be without starting catcher Sean Murphy for a significant amount of time to start the year which has them looking at either Chadwick Tromp or top prospect Drake Baldwin behind the dish to begin the year. While Baldwin is yet to debut, his numbers at AAA Gwinnett were very good last season. Subsequently, his debut will have plenty of eyes on it. Also, the overall depth of this lineup is another problem. Outside of Bryan De La Cruz the projected bench unit does not comprise many hitters with legit upside. Another unfortunate injury here or there would really hinder this Atlanta offense. Overall, this lineup is likely to be a likely top five group in the game this season. The rotation took a hit this winter by losing Max Fried to the Yankees. Despite that, it still tracks to be one of the best in the game again this season. Sale, Strider, Schwellenbach and Lopez are locked in as the top four, likely followed by Grant Holmes. Both Holmes and Schwellenbach are guys I am personally high on and believe will turn in great seasons for Altanta. This is the kind of rotation that is built for October and you have to think Alex Anthopoulos thinks the exact same when he looks at the unit he has put together. The bullpen will be spearheaded by Raisel Iglesias once again. Atlanta has always found a way to consistently put together a rock solid bullpen year after year and expectation is that 2025 will be no different. A lineup due for a major overall bounceback paired with a similar pitching staff to the one that led the majors in strikeouts a season ago is the recipe for success in Atlanta’s seventh NL East crown in eight years.

2. New York Mets: 92-70

OMG! What a fun ride last season’s Mets team was. From a 22-33 start to a 89-73 finish followed by a magical run all the way to game six of the NLCS. It was the most postseason success New York has seen since the 2015 National League championship and  a run that nobody saw coming. The Mets move into 2025 with heightened expectations and some new faces in the clubhouse. The most notable and richest of those new faces is Juan Soto, New York’s 26 year-old 765 million dollar man. Soto needs no introduction; what he has proven in his first seven seasons in the show is unprecedented for someone of his age. Quite frankly, I for one think most people are overlooking his addition to this club. His presence completely changes the outlook on this lineup and the expectations for this offense as a whole. Soto will be joined atop this New York order by last year’s NL MVP runner up in Fransisco Lindor. It would be hard to find a player in recent history who came through in big spots time after time after time in the way Lindor did in 2024. After a long free agent fiasco Pete Alonso eventually returned to the Flushing in February. The slugger comes off a down-year in 2024 which can be chalked up to the pressure he felt playing on an expiring contract. Still, what we consider to be a down-year in Alonso standards is 34 homers and a 122 wRC+. A big year should be expected out of Pete, the contract pressure won’t be as prominent this time around. Especially because he is zeroing in on the all-time club homerun record. The top three of Lindor, Soto and Alonso will be joined by the likes of Mark Vientos and Brandon Nimmo. Vientos burst onto the scene last year in both the regular and postseason. Another guy, like Lindor, who seemed to come up clutch time after time. He quickly showed everyone he is legit after many doubted his game would translate against big league pitching. Nimmo was inconsistent going through some great hot stretches at times but also some ice cold slumps. Consistency is the key for Nimmo this year but based on what we have seen in the past when he is right, he is a huge impact player for this team. The Mets 1-5 is going to be ready to go toe-to-toe with the very best in the game. The rest of the lineup will be solid but nothing to really write home about. Both center field and second base are likely platoon situations and Jesse Winker and Starling Marte will share reps as the DH. Behind the dish was going to be former top prospect Fransico Alavrez prior to his left hand injury on Saturday. Now, New York looks to veteran Luis Torrens to hold the position down until Alvarez’ eventual return around after the first quarter of the season. Many fans acknowledge that New York’s lineup is a threat but say they will not amount to anything because of the starting rotation. I beg to differ that consensus opinion that has formed among baseball fans nationwide. Off the bat, New York will be without workhorse Sean Manaea and new addition Frankie Montas to start the season. Montas will be out for a significant chunk of the season but the hope with Manea is he will be good to go a few weeks into the season. Manaea was exceptional down the stretch and into the postseason last year. He proved himself in Queens after looking lost in previous stops prior to 2024. Kodai Senga only tossed 5.1 regular season innings in 2024 which has quickly led to many forgetting his remarkable 2023 rookie campaign. He is a big time impact arm for this club if he is able to stay healthy. David Peterson was one of the most underrated arms in all of baseball last year and exceeded everyone’s expectations. Admittley, the underlying numbers were not great and Peterson is due for regression but will still be a solid rotational southpaw. Then the wild card of the whole group is former Yankee closer turned starter Clay Holmes. Holmes has not started a game since his 2018 rookie season with the Pirates. He has looked absolutely dominant so far in spring training posting a 0.00 ERA striking out 13 across 9.2 innings. The stuff is never in doubt for Holmes but a question mark arises over how many innings he will be able to give the Mets in this starting role. That question of innings is unfortunately a recurring one when it comes to this rotation. Solid depth is in place with the likes of Megill, Blackburn and Canning. Also, top prospect Brandon Sproat will be waiting in the wings if a mid-season call up is in order. The pitching staff is rounded out by a bullpen that looks as strong on paper as I have ever seen for the Mets entering a season. It is built around Edwin Diaz who was solid coming off his gruesome knee injury he suffered prior to 2023. Guys like newcomer A.J. Minter and returners in Butto, Nunez, Garrett and Stanek will hopefully build a solid bridge to Diaz’s ninth inning. Be on the lookout for another spring training standout in Max Kranick. Kranick, like Holmes, has great stuff but dealt with a major injury last year that kept him off the mound. However, David Stearns has a heck of a lot of faith in him which is evident by the fact Kranick was active on New York’s playoff rosters last season. Though he never saw in game action, Kranick is another guy to be on the lookout for this season. All and all, this team projects to have a top 5 lineup and middle of the pack pitching staff. The lack of a true ace pitcher hurts the Mets but they have the pieces in place to make another run despite it. If all goes to plan, this team will battle with Atlanta and Philly all season long for this NL East crown.

3. Philadelphia Phillies: 89-73

In 2024 the Phillies captured their first NL East crown since the 2011 season winning 95 games in the process. Philly never really seemed to have had serious competition within the division. Due to the fact they got off to a scorching hot first half and dusted both the Braves and Mets. This season, I slot Philly to slide down into a third place finish. The lack of competition for first in this division last year was alarming. Philly played significantly worse in the second half of the season and were then decisively beat by the Mets in the NLDS. The projected lineup is very familiar to fans due to the fact it has been virtually the same for three straight seasons now. Schwarber, Turner and Harper at the top of this lineup are staples but the rest of the group is questionable. Both Realmuto and Castellanos looked as if their best days were behind them in 2024. Meanwhile, Bohm and Stott were both inconsistent season long.. Outside of the minor addition of  former-Twin Max Kepler, Philly’s lineup is status quo from the last two seasons. While Atlanta and New York both made improvements to their lineup, Philly did not and in a division as competitive as this one that is something that is going to hurt them. Transitioning into something that will help Philly, that being their starting pitching. They have without a doubt put together the best starting rotation in this division and overall one of the best in baseball. Philly has struggled in the last two seasons to find someone competent to be the fifth guy behind  the four headed monster of Wheeler, Nola, Suarez and Sanchez. They acquired Jesus Luzardo from Miami back in December to fill that gap as their fifth guy. Luzardo has struggled with injury from time to time but overall had a very solid career as a Marlin. He is the perfect guy to round out this rotation and was one of the most under the radar great moves made this offseason. While the Braves and Mets lineups have more firepower, the Phillies rotation is going to be able to weather those storms. A remade bullpen is also on deck for Philly in 2025. Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez departed in free agency, two guys who were prominent pieces in Philly’s backend last season. Jordan Romano is the new closer in town and if healthy could be very good. Toronto let Romano go after an injury-shortened but brutal 2024 season. He has proved to be elite in the past and it is to be seen whether or not he can regain that form in 2025. All and all this team is still good and will be a projected wild card in the National League. Despite the strength of the rotation the lack of change in the Philly lineup is alarming. Dave Dombroski is going to quickly regret sitting on his hands when Philly finds themselves a level below the Braves and Mets in 2025. 

4. Washington Nationals: 77-85

2025 brings the most excitement for the Nationals that we have seen in the past few years. The labor of this long rebuild is beginning to bear fruit. Dylan Crews and James Wood are both gearing up for their first full big league seasons. Crews and Woods both showed a ton of promise in their big league stints last season. Expectations are going to be sky high for both and rightfully so based off of the pedigree they built as prospects. Washington brought back Josh Bell and traded for Nate Lowe this winter. I really like both moves but especially Lowe who was quietly one of most offensively consistent first baseman for the last few years in Arlington. CJ Abrams was an all star in 2024 and put together his first successful season as a big leaguer. The gambling fiasco that took place at the end of last season was a dark cloud over an overall bright season from Abrams. Here’s to hoping that unprofessional and foolish incidents like that are going to be put behind this budding star in the future. Also, be on the lookout for breakout candidates in Jacob Young and Luis Garcia Jr. Young is going to play elite defense in center and steal 30+ bases in 2025. The rotation contains young and exciting arms with the likes of Gore, Irvin and Parker. All three made improvements last season and look to take yet another leap in this upcoming 2025 season. The addition by subtraction that comes with Patrick Corbin’s contract finally coming to an end is going to be big for this team. So long the days of a pretty much guaranteed loss every fifth day.  The Nationals are slowly but surely inching closer and closer to competing in this division once again. I like to view this season as a stepping stone into consistent winning seasons starting in 2026.

5. Miami Marlins: 56-106

Somehow Miami is rebuilding but seems to just get consistently worse and worse. The Marlins outlook heading into 2025 is extremely bleak. Miami lost 100 games last year after making the postseason in 2023. This offense very well might be the worst in all of baseball this year. Outside of Xavier Edwards and Connor Norby, it’s a total crapshoot. Edwards came out of nowhere last year and was a big surprise. He proved that he is a more than capable major leaguer. Norby was acquired from Baltimore at the deadline in the Trevor Rogers deal. He was blocked in Baltimore’s crowded infield so he was shipped off to South Beach. Norby has a ton of potential and if everything goes according to plan should be Miami’s best hitter this season. The rotation gets a huge boost with the return of Sandy Alcantara. Sadly for Marlins fans before the former Cy Young winner has even thrown a pitch this year every opposing team is vying for his services via the trade market. A productive and healthy first half from Alcantara will almost guarantee a trade elsewhere at the deadline. He is joined by former top prospects in Edward Cabrera and Max Meyer. Two guys who at one time both looked primed to be impact players in the majors. So far, that has not been the case for both Cabrera and Meyer. It is not a lack of talent with these two but rather a lack of production in the majors to warrant high rise. This roster truly has little to no upside and is going to contain lineups full of players nobody has ever heard of. It’s a sad reality but this is what Miami Marlins baseball is. Little to no spending on the free agent market and poor player development on homegrown talent. It is going to be yet another long 162 game marathon in Miami.

Sources:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

FanGraphs

By Jonah Drew

1. Boston Red Sox: 94-68

The Red Sox have not lived up to their long standing standard of regular season excellence in the past 3 years, but last year was the first year that you began to see signs of growth toward a winning product. In ’22 and ’23, the Red Sox posted eerily similar, yet equally embarrassing, 78 win, last in the AL East campaigns. In 2024, things began to look better for Boston, reaching the .500 plateau and finishing 3rd in the division. I don’t think the .500 record adequately represents the smashing success that the season was for the Red Sox as the vision started to become crystal clear for what a successful club up in Beantown could look like in 2025. It starts with the breakout of Jarren Duran, who posted a 9 win season out of almost nowhere. Combined, with the tremendous rookie campaigns from both Ceddane Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, the Red Sox may have found 3 cornerstones last year alone. One of the main splashes of the entire off-season was when the Red Sox broke the bank and signed Alex Bregman to a 3 year, 120 million dollar deal. A top 3 of Duran, Bregman, Devers is absolutely one of the scarier trios in the game. This lineup is potent, especially at the top. The pitching side has been a struggle in years past but ever since dubbed pitching savant, Craig Breslow took over this staff has been on the up and up. Tanner Houck took a major leap last season, even earning himself All Star honors. The real excitement though comes from this offseason, where they added Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler to the equation. In his first season as a big league starter, the southpaw posted a 3.58 ERA in 32 starts, with peripherals that have him closer to 2.8. Walker Buehler had a tough regular season, but he showed flashes of his former self in the Postseason. Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello are also back end arms that have potential to boast frontline numbers. My only concern with this Red Sox roster is the bullpen, but they do have arms who have proven that they can hold it down in leverage innings such as Liam Hendriks and Aroldis Chapman. This roster is supremely talented at the top and if things go well, it’s possible that this could turn out to be the most complete roster in the American League.

2. Baltimore Orioles: 92-70

It feels like some of the allure of the Baltimore Orioles has worn off just a bit, but I’m still a believer. A couple of years ago, when the Orioles finally escaped the cellar, all we could talk about was the youthful exuberance of this team with their big league success and historically good farm system. Now that these guys are beginning to develop into high quality major leaguers, I don’t see any reason why this team can’t compete for a division title. For Baltimore, it all starts with the lineup and who better to lead off with than Gunnar Henderson. He posted an unreal 9 win season as just a 23 year old in what was an MVP caliber season in most years. Beyond Gunnar, this lineup is riducoulously deep. Young studs like Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, Ryan Mountcastle, Colton Cowser, and Heston Kjerstad could make this lineup scary from Gunnar leading off to the 9 hole. Jackson Holliday is the real X-Factor in this lineup, the former #1 prospect has struggled in limited Big League action but clearly has star potential. I also like veterans like Cedric Mullins, Tyler O’Neill, Ryan O’Hearn, and Gary Sanchez. The starting rotation is where it could get a bit scary though, The front 2 of Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez is not bad, but it could certainly benefit from having the services of Corbin Burnes. The back end is where my real worries lie though, Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, and Tomoyuko Sugano do not instill confidence in me. Morton is on the wrong side of 40 and both Kremer and Sugano have lackluster stuff to say least. The bullpen on the other hand, could help buoy this pitching staff. Led by the mountain, Felix Batista and backed up by a combination of Yennier Cano, Cionel Perez, Keegan Akin, Andrew Kittredge, and Seranthony Dominguez, all of which have potential to be lights out. The youth of this roster is beginning to hit there stride and that could be frightening for their AL East companions.

3. Tampa Bay Rays: 86-76

The Rays won 80 games in 2024, this was the first time that they did not break the .500 mark since 2017. In the past decade or so, the Tampa Bay Rays have been the gold standard for small market teams outperforming their payroll and getting creative in order to sustain success. Many believe that the Rays magic is starting to wear off, but I am willing to go out on a limb and say that last year was a fluke and can largely be accredited to unfortunate injuries to Brandon Lowe and damn near every single member of the pitching staff. This team reminds of the 2023 Rays team that got off to a white hot start and ended up winning 99 ball games. As is what has become the usual, the strength of this squad is on the pitching side. Assuming health, which is admittedly a risky bet, this starting rotations has the looks of one of the best in baseball. Shane McLanahan is a bonafide stud, in his last healthy season he posted a 2.54 ERA with 11 K/9. Drew Rasmussen was just beginning to push into a new caliber of pitcher before he got the hammer, watch out for him to take a leap now that he is back. There is a clump of arms after Rasmussen that have as much potential as anyone but also have their pitfalls. Taj Bradley was the top pitching prospect in baseball not too long ago and he turned in a solid season last year. Shane Baz has been a myth to this point but he is now healthy and has some of the most electric stuff in the game. Zack Littell is actually a breath of fresh air because he provides much needed stability. In fact, he was actually the Rays bWAR leader in 2024. The bullpen is also a strength of this roster, shocker! Pete Fairbanks is a shut down closer as he saved 23 games in 2024. Edwin Uceta came out of absolutely nowhere, pitching to a 1.51 ERA and turning himself into a premier reliever. Garrett Cleavinger and Mason Montgomery are southpaws who have some fun stuff, particularly Montgomery, who has seen an uptick since transitioning to the pen. Is anyone suprised that the Rays have created a super pen out of relatively unknown guys? I sure as hell am not. The Lineup has more questions to be drawn, although I’m still a believer. Yandy Diaz did not perform to his standard last year but he posted a 157 OPS+ and a 142 OPS+ in the previous two years. Brandon Lowe is a tremendous slugging middle infielder who has shown he can do it. Junior Caminero has potential to be one of the best players in all of baseball, that is not being hyperbolic. Christopher Morel was my favorite break out prediction among hitters, he oozes swagger and I expect the Rays to get every last talent molecule out of him. The newcomer Danny Jansen and Josh Lowe are both proven vets who will likely be in the 105 wRC+ range and will field their position. They also possess two of my favorite prospects in all of baseball in Chandler SImpson and Curtis Mead, both of whom have had an A+ spring trainings and are capable of impacting winning as soon as opening day. This team is talented and if I have learned one thing in my 17 years of life, it’s that you should always trust the Rays.

4. New York Yankees: 84-78

As per usual, the Yankees have been in the center of the headlines a whole lot this offseason, and not always for good things. Firstly, they were in the thick of the Juan Soto saga before their crosstown rival Mets landed him for the next 15 years. This naturally sparked controversy as the Yankees status as “big brother” was brought into question. In response, they went on to bring in some big names like Max Fried, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, and Devin Williams. While these names hold value, I question the actual production they will yield, Goldschmidt and Bellinger in particular. Most recently though, we learned that Gerrit Cole is dealing with an elbow issue and could be headed for the dreaded Tommy John surgery. Now to the collective units, starting with the lineup. The Yankees have the luxury of having a player in the midst of an all time peak in Aaron Judge. Coming off of an 11 win, MVP season, there should be zero doubt as to what you’re going to get from Aaron Judge. The question is though, with the subtraction of Soto, who is going to step up as the Robin to Judge’s Batman. As I Iterated earlier, I don’t trust the 2 veteran newcomers in Goldschmidt and Bellinger. Jazz is the most likely candidate, he posted a 130 OPS+ in pinstripes last year but he has not showed a sustained ability to stay on the field. They host a cast of young players who have flashed moments of brilliance but have struggled have success across a 162 game sample size. Guys like Anthony Volpe, Jasson Dominguez, Ben Rice, and Oswaldo Cabrera are all slated to play virtually every day and that leaves a lot of grey area. I have serious doubts regarding this lineup outside of Judge. The pitching side is a bit more exciting, even with a potential injury hanging over Gerrit Cole. Max Fried is a legitimate ace, posting a 3.25 ERA in 2024 and perpetually sitting in the low 3s and even dipping into the mid 2s. The middle of the rotation could get a bit dicey if Cole were to miss significant time. Carlos Rodon and Marcus Stroman have been pretty volatile both on and off the mound, but when they have it going they can be front line caliber pitchers. Will Warren is a notable prospect, he has an enticing pitch mix and the Yankees have shown an ability mold and develop arms in order to help them reach their full potential. It is noteworthy though, with Luis Gil missing time, the depth of this rotation is greatly depleted and if any of their current 5 were to go down or fault in any way, they are running out of places to turn. The Yankees’ bullpen has been a consistent strength of their’s for years now and I don’t expect that to change in 2025. Seldom the Pete Alonso incident, Devin Williams was largely unhittable this year, just as he has been for the past half decade. Luke Weaver took a leap out of nowhere last year, posting a 2.89 ERA and even earning the full time closer role by the end of the year. They also have a slew of middle relief guys who I whole heatedly trust to get me 3 outs if need be. The story of this Yankees roster is volatility, they have former top prospects, Cy Young contenders, and even multiple former MVPs, if these play up to their 100th percentile outcomes, this team could be a force to be reckon with, but if not it could turn out to be a dud of a season.

5. Toronto Blue Jays: 72-90

I feel strongly that it is time to pull the plug on the plug on the Ross Atkins and John Schnieder era up north. Ross Atkins has made countless questionable decisions that have cost this franchise gravely. He also has struggled to land the cream of the crop free agents, although that can be at least partly attributed to the unattractive destination that is Toronto, Canada. This team has been on a steady decline and I expect that to continue into 2025. This lineup is pretty uninspiring in totality, sure they have Vladimir Guerrero Jr.(for now) but outside of him and maybe Anthony Santander, who do you trust to give you even a 115 wRC+. Bo Bichette was unbelievably dissapointing in 2025 and there is a decent chance that’s just who he is now. George Springer’s age has really begin to show and I think the worst is yet to come for him. I do like the young pieces they got in the Yusei Kikuchi deal in Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner. I would not be shocked if Will Wagner is the third most productive bat in this lineup, he has fantastic peripherals. The one saving grace of this team is the defense. They won the team gold glove award and deservingly so. Daulton Varsho has a case to be the best defender in baseball period and is unequivocally the best defender at his position. Ernie Clement also racked up 3.4 bWAR, almost solely on the back of his defense. This rotation could actually be pretty solid. Kevin Gausman has been about as reliable as anyone, you can count on him to give you 150+ Innings at a low 3s ERA. Having a guy like that is a huge luxury that the Jays can not take for granted. The two former Mets, Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer are polar opposites. Chris Bassitt is a 1990s bulldog starter who happens to be playing in 2025. His stuff is pretty bland, but he throws the kitchen sink at you and will give you everything he has every time he toes the rubber. Max Scherzer might be better on a rate basis but he is a bit of a diva and will be lucky to give you 100 innings at this point in his career. Bowden Francis does excite me as a potential breakout arm though, I must admit. The addition of Jeff Hoffman will be huge for the Blue Jays as they try to improve their bullpen. He will be a welcomed upgrade over Jordan Romano who posted an ERA north of 6 last season, whereas Jeff Hoffman has been below the 2.5 mark for 2 years running. I like Yariel Rodriguez in the longman role but outside of him, nobody else is comfortably in my circle of trust. On paper, this roster may not be 90 loss bad, however this team may have the worst juju in baseball. I do not trust the decision makers at the helm and I would not be shocked to see Vladdy moved before seasons end.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs