By Jonah Drew
Record: 74-88
These are not your Boston Red Sox of old, they currently rank 11th in total payroll and actually are below average in active payroll. Owner John Henry seems to be more occupied with Premier League team Liverpool F.C. than he is with his historic state side franchise. Boston fired GM Chaim Bloom in favor of bringing in former MLB Pitcher and Yale Graduate, Craig Breslow from the Cubs front office. In his first off season, he paid Lucas Giolito $38.5 Million across 2 years, Traded for Tyler O’Neill from St. Louis, and sent Chris Sale down to Atlanta in exchange for Vaughn Grissom. Frankly, I hate the Giolito deal, his average launch angle of 18.5 will not bode well in Fenway Park, where many weakish flyballs tend to sneak out. Also, many routine flyballs in normal ball parks will manage to snip the Green Monster for a base knock. Tyler O’Neill needed to get out of St. Louis, it seems that he was not very well liked and vise versa, it will be very interesting to see if he can return to his 2021 form. O’Neill was legitimately elite in 2021, putting up a 6 win season, a 148 OPS+, and 34 Pumps, it remains to be seen if he can even stay healthy to put up another season like this one. I did not like the Trevor Story or Masataka Yoshida at the time, and I like them even less now. Story has never succeeded outside of Coors Field, and the elbow surgery certainly does not help, I expect him to under perform expectations again. Yoshida will be almost an exclusive DH and paying a DH $95M to OPS .783 feels like a bad misuse of assets. The loss of Justin Turner to a division rival is also significant. Triston Casas, Rafael Devers, and sneaky Jarren Durans, are the only real bright spots in this lineup for me. I like Brayan Bello long term but I doubt he is ready to headline a serious rotation, and if you are relying on Giolito to be the ace, good luck. The bullpen is fine but I highly doubt Chris Martin can maintain his damn near sub 1 ERA and at this point, Kenley Jansen is nothing special. Converted starter Josh Winckowski was actually very good in 2023, with a stuff tick up, I actually belief 2023 was no fluke. I expect Red Sox fans to come away from 2024 very dissatisfied with their storied organization.
MVP: Triston Casas
Many will be suprised to not see Rafael Devers in this spot as many considered him to be a near shoe in. This bold prediction is less of an indictment on Rafael Devers than it is on the ability of Triston Casas. Casas struggles in a big way to start his rookie campaign, hitting just .225 with a .728 OPS. There were many including myself were doubting Casas because as is the case with almost all 1B prospects, if you are not hitting you provide next to no value. Casas proved all these doubters to be dead wrong post all star break. It would not be an exaggeration to say Casas was one of the best players in baseball after the break. With a triple slash of .317/.417/.617 , 15 Homeruns in just 180 ABs, you would certainly be hard pressed to find a better hitting in the second half. While it is unrealistic to say this is just what Casas is now, I will say I believe that the first igit of his OPS will be a 9 with the second being a crooked number. This is mainly due to his ability and willingness to draw walks which is in the 93rd percentile at 13.7%. This ability to get on base adds an element of safety to a very high ceiling pure offensive profile. I am very bullish of Triston Casas and what his 2024 will look like.
Cy Young: Brayan Bello
As I was saying in the record overview above, pitching and specifically quality Starting Pitching is hard to come by on this roster. Brayan Bello is a good arm and can be a solid mid rotation arm in an actual rotation, if he is your best pitcher at this current juncture, things are not looking good. Bello sits 95 on both of his fastballs but he predominantly throws his sinker, 36.3% compared to 20.6% on the four seamer. Both of his fastballs got hit around which is obviously, less than ideal. On the other hand, his changeup is up there with the best of that offering. Change is his by far his best whiff generator with a great 38.7% whiff rate and a run value of 9, the best in his arsenal. Bello actually is ground ball pitcher despite his loud stuff. His Ground ball rate is 56.3% and helps to offset his blatant inability to miss bats. In a questionable group, Bello is the sharpest tool in the shed.
Breakout: Vaughn Grissom
After the Atlanta Braves let longtime Shortstop and leader Dansby Swanson walk to the Cubs prior to the 2023 Season, it was widely expected that Vaughn Grissom would be handed the reigns. Suprisingly, the job went to veteran Orlando Arcia and in usual Braves fashion, it was the correct choice. Arcia had a great first half that may or may not have earned him an all star appearance. Grissom spent 2024 absolutely demolish AAA pitching but not get a true big league opportunity. I also kind of feel that we as a baseball community forget how young this guy is, he is a young 23 Years Old. Grissom is a great athlete and I expect him to showcase his talents in an overdue everyday MLB shot.
ROTY: Ceddanne Rafaela
Ceddanne Rafaela is arguably one of the best outfield defenders in MLB right now and he is just 23 Years Old with 83 ABs. Rafaela has a very small frame at just 5’9 165, and as you would expect Rafaela is a borderline 70 runner with the ability to swipe 25-30 bags anually. What you would not expect from his slight frame is the fact that he has hit 20 homers in back to back minor league seasons. He leverages well and goes a great job lifting the ball, which helps his raw power play up, especially in Fenway. If I were Alex Cora, I would start Rafaela in CF Opening Day, and move Jarren Duran to Right Field. Even if Rafaela does not hit right away, his Speed and Defense will likely allow him to accumulate WAR and provide enough value. Rafaela has a very high floor but I do not expect him to be Myles Straw type player, where he has a great glove but provides no value at the dish at all.
Sources
Baseball Reference
Baseball Savant
Fangraphs
Diamond Metrics 