By Jonah Drew

Record: 81-81

Summed up into one word, this team is mid. Just a year before last, they were in a dog fight in the ALDS, taking the Yankees to 5 games. If I am speaking candidly, I think as an organization they got a bit complacent. That 2022 was talented no doubt, but the batted ball data will tell you they got pretty lucky. In 2023, they doubled down and regression to the mean was all but inevitable. They continued to hit the ball soft, with an average exit velocity of 87.3, good for last in all of baseball, yes, behind the Oakland A’s. It is 2024, that is not the way to win. That said I don’t think the 2024 Guardians are a 76 win team, but I definitely don’t think that they are a 92 win team like 2022. Their pitching situation is one of the better in baseball, with the consistency of Bieber, and the upside of guys like Triston Mckenzie, Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee. Even some young arms like Logan Allen and Joey Cantillo are some thing to get slightly excited about. The lineup is interesting, you know what you’re going to get with Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, and even Josh Naylor, but it will be interesting to see if Andres Gimenez can bounce back from his poor 2023 and if guys like Bo Naylor are legit. I have a bone to pick with Cleveland, why is Myles Straw your shoe in Center Fielder, I get defense up the middle is valuable, but at what point does it go too far. The guy could not hit water if he fell out of a boat, with an OPS+ under 70 in both of his full years in Cleveland, he is borderline unplayable. I would have been happy to see them go out and get a Kevin Kiermaier this past offseason. The Shortstop job is also up for grabs, and there are suitors but most of them are question marks with guys like Brayan Rocchio, Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, Jose Tena, and Angel Martinez up for the job. I have hunch that Rocchio will be there opening day but personally I’m indifferent, as is with the team as a whole this team, these guys are all fine, nothing more, nothing less.

MVP: Jose Ramirez

Through plenty of turmoil, Jose Ramirez has been a lone constant, producing like one of the premier third basemen, year in, year out. The last time Jose Ramirez was not a 5 win player(exc. 2020) was 2019 where he had a bWAR of 3.1. However, in the 2 years prior he had consecutive 7 win seasons. Ramirez is a model for the “5 Tool” player, Ramirez puts bat on ball with the best of them, the last time Jram did not have a whiff rate in the 90th Percentile+ was well, never. If he has that much hit, he must sacrifice power, right? Wrong, his Career SLG% is .499 . He is also elite in the speed and defense department, he has never posted an OAA(exc. 2020) below the 80th percentile, as well as being an above average runner with 20 Stolen Bases 6 times in his career including 28 this past season. Jose Ramirez has been a model of consistency almost a decade now and he is not showing signs of slowing down

Cy Young: Tanner Bibee

Bibee was a bit of a project when he was selected in the 5th Round out of Cal State Fullerton but not your stereotypical project. Typically, players deemed projects are guys with violent stuff that struggle with location and pitchability, not Bibee. When the Guardians identified him, they liked his pitchability but the stuff was not nearly up to par with that of a major league starter, notorious for their pitching lab, they helped gain multiple ticks on his fastball, all the way up to sitting 94.9 MPH. To go along with his above average fastball is an absolutely nasty changeup with -5.7 inches of vertical break vs average helping miss nearly 38% of bats in 2023. Bibee very hard to barrel up last season, ranking in the top 20% in barrel rate as well. Tanner Bibee’s rookie season was the best among AL rookie arms with a 2.98 ERA across 25 Starts and I expect him to increase his workload and keep the ERA relatively similar, likely in the low to mid 3s range, which I expect to be the best in this youthful Cleveland rotation

Breakout: Bo Naylor

Brother of his teammate, Josh Naylor, Bo is one of the more athletic young catchers to come through the pipeline in recent memory. Naylor came up simply to gain experience in 2022, tallying just 8 plate appearances and being a spectator for the playoff run. Naylor came into 2023 with reasonably high expectations, but I’d say the jury is still out. Naylor tallied just 238 PAs in 2023 and it is not like he was blocked by any type of studs, the majority of those ABs went to guys like Austin Hedges and Cam Gallagher, who both hit below the Mendoza line. Bo was actually very productive in his limited action, posting a 124 OPS+ and a .339 OBP. Naylor is happy to take his walks, boasting a 13% walk rate. I expect Naylor to put up a relatively similar slash line with better counting numbers.

ROTY: Kyle Manzardo

Sent over in a deadline deal for Aaron Civale this past year, Manzardo will likely be holding down first base come March 28. All Manzardo had done until 2023 is rake, but that changed in 2023. Manzardo had never had a K% above 16.7% at any stop in his MiLB career but in Durham 2023, he had a K% of 20.8%. He is a hit over power guy by nature but it seems like he attempted to sacrifice some of that bat to ball for more impact. This changed resulted in by far a career low of a 95 wRC+. It seems Cleveland, a notoriously, hit over power organization, told him to go back to his previous approach. These changes worked, cutting his K% down to 15.3% and raising his wRC+ to 123. The floor is so high due to the fact that he will always walk and will always limit the strikeouts(I hope). On the contrary, the ceiling is capped due to the lack of impact. It should be a smooth transition and I expect Manzardo to wRC+ in the 110-120 range.

By Jonah Drew

Record: 58-104

On paper, this team has the look of a 100 loss team. This is a stark contrast from how things were looking on the south side just a couple of years ago. Coming off their first playoff birth since way back in 2008, the White Sox were the clear favorite in the AL Central and a dark horse world series contender heading into 2022. Things did not come together and just like that, they were right back to mediocrity with an 81-81 season. It was clear it was past clear that Tony La Russa was not fit to be managing a Major League club at his old age. His successor, Pedro Grifol did not have the inaugural season he hoped for finishing 61-101. From a player standpoint, talent is few and far between. Even though Dylan Cease didn’t have the season he has shown he is capable of in 2023, I don’t think anybody believes he is 4+ ERA guy. With the White Sox having no intention of competing in 2024, and Dylan Cease only having 2 years of control remaining, It only makes sense for them to deal, it seems they attempted to deal him this past off season but nobody was willing to meet the king’s ransom they desired. I would be shocked to see him in the windy city post deadline. Moves for guys who will probably be starting opening day like Martin Maldonado, Paul Dejong, Dominic Fletcher, and Nicky Lopez definitely did not move me although Dom Fletcher does have some long term upside. Luis Robert Jr. is legit 30-30 talent and one of the premier Center Fielders in our game but even he struggles to stay on the field.There is not much to dream in the rotation after Cease, KBO MVP Erick Fedde is probably their 2 and he has been batting practice in MLB. Even with his loud stuff Michael Kopech has had no real significant stretches of big league success. With all due respect this bullpen is honestly laughable, guys like John Brebbia and Tim Hill are decent flip candidates and Jordan Leasure has some upside. That said, with the loss Gregory Santos there is almost nothing to be excited about in this stable, outside of Garret Crochet if he is able to stay healthy. Since 2021, the White Sox have been nothing but a disaster and I don’t expect it to change in the near future.

MVP: Luis Robert Jr.

This was a no brainer, Luis Robert is one of the best outfielders in baseball full stop. He was great last year, a 5.0 bWAR, 38 HR, 20 SB, .264/.315/.500. Not only are those numbers elite, but he is also an elite defender with a fielding run value in the 97th percentile of all Center Fielders. This may sound crazy but I honestly believe this is simply the baseline for Robert Jr. going forward. I say this because I believe that Robert did this a very clear, yet fixable hole in his game. Robert had an absolutely abysmal O-Swing% of 43.3%. In english, this means that Robert Jr. swung at 43.3% of pitches outside the strike zone leading to a K% of 28.9% and a BB% of just 5.0. I do feel like part of the reason he was chasing so much is because he was pressing to do damage because if he ain’t doing the run production nobody in this lineup will come through. Even with a very flawed approach Robert still put up a 128 WRC+, the sky is the limit for what he could do in 2024 and beyond.

Cy Young: Dylan Cease

By all accounts, Dylan Cease was phenomenal in 2022. Cease made 32 Starts across 184 Innings of 2.2 ERA ball. Cease’s peripherals backed up what we already knew with an xBA of .184, an xwOBA of .257, and a 2.7 xERA, all which ranked in the top 10% of pitchers respectively. He finished 2nd in AL Cy Young just behind Justin Verlander who posted a sub 2 ERA at 1.85. Expectations could not have been higher going into 2023 but it did not go Cease’s way by means. I believe this is for a variety of reasons, Cease actually threw his slider more than his fastball in 2022 but vise versa in 2023. This may have affected his velocity loosing more than a tick on his fastball leading to a wOBA of .340. I believe it is in his best interest to trust his nasty slider more, similar to ’22. Cease’s slider is unhittable posting a whiff rate of 43.3% the past 2 seasons. I am confident these tangible changes would not only make him a lock to be the best arm on this staff, he could be right back in the AL Cy Young conversation

Breakout: Garrett Crochet

Crochet has thrown all of 0(Non Rehab)Minor League Innings. The southpaw was selected 11th Overall out of the University of Tennessee in the 2020 Draft and was immediately thrust into a big league role, throwing 6 innings out of the bullpen in the 2020 shortened season. Crochet was great in the White Sox back end, posting a 2.82 across 54.1 Innings. Since this season, innings have been scarce for him, missing all of 2022 due to Tommy John. Garrett only appeared in 25 Games total(MiLB included) in 2023 due to shoulder issues but now is supposedly fully healthy. Crochet has great stuff, sitting in the upper 90s from the left side and an 80 Slider. In 2021, Crochet’s only MLB season of any significance, opponents had an xBA of .126 and whiffed nearly 45% of the time against his slider. Crochet has all the makings of when of the best left handed relievers in baseball and I expect him to do so, health permitting.

ROTY: Jordan Leasure

Leasure is anything but a household name. Odds are that if you are reading this you are probably asking who is Jordan Leasure. Well, I honestly believe that he should be a set-up guy for Chicago. Yes, that is partly because the White Sox pen is so bad that a reliever prospect who has never stepped foot on a big league mound is who I am recommending for a back end role. That said, Leasure has some violent stuff and one of the better fastballs in the minor leagues. Leasure sits high 90s, even touching 100 with tons of ride helping him dominate the top of the zone. He also has a low arm slot while generating plenty of extension, making it a damn near 80 Fastball. Leasure came over from LA in a 2023 deadline deal sending Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly to the west coast. Leasure’s numbers in the are good with great K/BB ratios which give me hope that he can more than survive in the bigs. There is no reason to waste Leasure’s talent away in favor of Touki Toussaint and Alex Spaes. Leasure could turn some heads and gain some national recognition in the upcoming season.

Sources:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

CBS Sports

By Joe Browne

Record: 77-85

The Miami Marlins won 84 games last year. That number surprised me along with many other baseball fans. They made the playoffs for the first time in a full season since 2003, a year in which they won the World Series. The Fish were quickly swept 2-0 by the Phillies in the wild card series. Across those two games the team only scored two runs. Their offense went dead silent when the lights were the brightest. Kim Ng was a historic hire following the 2020 season and she did a fine job with this group. Ng resigned after owner Bruce Sherman wanted to bring in a president that would push her to second in command. That president ended up being Peter Bendix who did not do much in his first offseason at the helm in South Beach. The projected lineup features all returners but one from last year’s 84 win campaign. The new face is Tim Anderson who will look to resurrect himself after an absolutely abysmal 2023 season in which he posted a measly 60 OPS+. Anderson will slot into the top of the order and play shortstop which was a position of need for Miami the offseason. The Marlins saw their best power source depart for San Francisco in Jorge Soler. His loss will certainly be felt, this lineup lacks power. Trade deadline acquisitions last year Jake Burger and Josh Bell combined for 56 homers in 2023. The rest of this projected opening day lineup combined only hit 72 homers. Burger and Bell were both great for the Marlins down the stretch and played a large role in their eventual playoff berth. However, I project that they will not be able to maintain those numbers over a full season’s workload in Miami. Another reason why this team will regress is its defense. Outside of Jazz Chisholm Jr. in center and the catching duo of Fortes and Bethancourt, there is subpar defense all around the diamond. The aforementioned Tim Anderson is brutal at shortstop, a premier defensive position. His counterpart on the left side of the infield, Jake Burger at third, is also a bad defender. While Luis Arraez is exceptional at the plate he is not in the field at second base. Overall, the infield defense rounds out to be one of the worst in baseball. The pitching staff will be without its top arm this season, 2022 National League Cy Young Sandy Alcantara. Jesus Luzardo was great last year and he will deservedly take the mound on Opening Day for Miami. Youngster Eury Perez was also great despite his inning limit holding him back from his max potential in 2023. The rest of the rotation is rounded out by Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers. Pair this with a solid bullpen and overall this team does have a respectable staff. For me, it comes down to the lack of power in this lineup without Soler, the bad defense and the unsustainable record in one run games last year. The Marlins were 33-14 in ball games decided by one run last year, that number is unsustainable in 2024. Do not be surprised if this team does take a step back this year following a somewhat promising 2023.

MVP: Luis Arraez

With the season ending injury to Alcantara, it is tough to see anyone else but Arraez being this clubs best player. Batting average is not the end all be all like it once was, but the fact that Arraez flirted with a .400 clip for a significant chunk of the season is remarkable. He will not provide power, honestly it would be impressive if he can reach ten homers again this season but he has the best bat to ball skill in baseball. In 2023 Arraez had a remarkable 5.5% strikeout rate paired with a 7.8% whiff rate. Both those numbers were in the 100th percentile. Arraez is the best pure hitter in baseball and the face of this franchise. Here’s to hoping Miami does not trade him this season like rumors suggest they could.

Cy Young: Jesus Luzardo

Luzardo came over to Miami in the deal that sent Starling Marte to Oakland in July 2021. Initially, he struggled in Miami but has really found his footing in the last two years with the fish. Last year he started a full season’s workload of 32 starts and struckout 208 batters over 178.2 innings. The southpaw has a great fastball with an average velocity of 96.7 MPH and a run value at an exceptional 15. The offspeed is not as great as the heater but he does use his slider and changeup almost equally. Those pitches aided him in generating a nice 31.4% whiff rate in 2023. Now, with Sandy’s absence he will have the role of the ace on a team that is a playoff hopeful.

Breakout: Edward Cabrera

You have probably heard of Edward Cabrera before, he was among the long list of young arms the Marlins had coming through their system within the last few years. Last year, he had a mediocre 4.24 ERA, dig a little deeper and you will find he also had a 3.79 xERA. Pair those numbers with an exceptional xBA at .199 and the bad luck faced by Cabrera is evident. The one key behind this breakout pick is if he can find a way to limit his fee passes handed out. A whopping 6.0 BB9 and and abysmal 15.2% BB rate in 2023 can not be repeated if he will see improvement in 2024. His offspeed run value was elite at a positive 9 runs. This was fueled by his primary changeup which is by far Cabrera’s best pitch. It aids in creating a surplus of ground balls to help Cabrera get outs. The tools are there for this breakout to come to fruition in 2024, it is just a matter of if Cabrera can throw strikes consistently. 

ROTY: Max Meyer

Max Meyer was the 3rd overall pick in the 2020 draft out of Minnesota by the Marlins. Injury derailed his 2023 season because he required Tommy John surgery. Now, Meyer is back and fighting for a roster spot in Miami. While Meyer does not project to start the year in the rotation, an injury or poor performance from one of Miami’s other starters is inevitable. This will open the door for Meyer to pitch in the show in 2024. The 24 year old righty will be ready when his chance arrives to pitch with the big league club. Meyer has an elite slider that scouts grade out as a 70 grade pitch. He pairs that pitch with his fastball and changeup. So far Meyer has appeared in one game this spring for the Marlins striking out two in two innings against the Yankees on February 29th. The time is now for Meyer to finally pitch big league innings and become a staple in the Marlins rotation for years to come. 

Sources:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

MLB Pipeline