By Jonah Drew

1. Texas Rangers: 92-70

Coming off of a World Series title in 2023, expectations were sky high for the Rangers heading into 2024. With a combination of under performance and unfortunate injuries, the Rangers season turned out to be an utter disappointment. The defending champs won just 78 games and did not earn a Postseason birth. Despite an underwhelming season in 2024, the Rangers 2025 outlook remains positive. It all starts with the middle infield duo of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Seager was fantastic once again in 2024, posting a 145 OPS+ but he missed significant time with several injuries. Assuming he can stay healthy, I expect him to be an MVP candidate in 2025. Marcus Semien struggled a bit, but still posted a 4 win season on the back of his defense. Wyatt Langford, the former number 1 overall prospect, had a strong rookie campaign. He was a 3.9 bWAR player with a 111 OPS+, his future is very promising. Joc Pederson was a massive addition, he is a righty masher and will slide right into the middle of the Rangers’ order. Josh Smith was a very nice suprise, coming out of nowhere to provide a plus bat at third. Josh Jung missed most of last season, but the hope is he can return to his 2023 form. With ancillary pieces such as Jake Burger, Jonah Heim, and Adolis Garcia assuming he bounces back, this lineup could be one of the best in all of baseball. This rotation is a mixed bag. It is an assortment of two veterans who have struggled to stay healthy at times, two very exciting young rookies, who just happened to be college teammates, and well, Jacob DeGrom who is very much a conversation of his own. Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle have their peaks and valleys, but we have seen Eovaldi stand on his head for long stretches, and often at highly opportune times. College teammates and Vanderbilt, Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker have both been through the ringer, with Leiter dragging his feet through the ranks of the minor leagues and Rocker dealing with massive amounts of criticism and injuries. With that said, they have both earned their right to break camp with the team and have all the talent in the world be plus Big League arms. Jacob DeGrom might be the single most loaded conversation in baseball currently. At his peak, he can be the best pitcher in the history of the game, and that’s not a hyperbole. He won back to back Cy Youngs in 2018 and 2019, with his 1.70 ERA season in 2018 season contending with the greatest single season campaigns for a pitcher in the live ball era. The thing is though, he hasn’t started over 15 games in a season in a season since before Covid. The hope is, the Tommy John Surgery proceed a clean bill of health and if that’s the case, the Rangers will be unveiling what is at worst, a Top 5 pitcher in the game. This bullpen is the lone concerning unit on this roster. David Robertson has been uber reliable for what is almost two decades, but in no way does him being your best reliever in his age 40 season, instill confidence. Jacob Webb and Luke Jackson are solid as middle relief guys, but as back end arms, they’re questionable to say the least. On the bright side, this is a very fixable issue, with a couple of deadline moves, we could be having a different conversation. This roster is extremely talented, and not to dissimilar to the World Series team, but it remains to be seen if they can live up to their potential.

2. Houston Astros: 88-74

When Andy Ibanez hit a base clearing double to seal the Astros’ fate in the Wild Card last season, many theorized that the Astros dynasty had run it’s course, especially with the looming departures of Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker. Credit Dana Brown and this Houston brass though, they did an excellent job retooling and have set themselves up well for contention in 2025. Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker are great fits and should at least somewhat supplement the outgoing production. Although in a new position, Jose Altuve is still kickin’. He showed his age a bit in 2024 but he was still very solid, posting a 126 OPS+. Yordan Alvarez is one of the prolific hitters of this generation, posting a 172 OPS+ with 35 pumps, special hitter. Yainer Diaz absolutely ranks, with a .766 OPS in 2024, he looks to be one of the best hitting backstops in baseball for years to come. Jeremy Pena showed major flashes at the plate early on, but he has plateau’d a bit since. That withstanding, he was still a 4 win player on the back of his speed and defense, he is a valuable role player. Cam Smith was incredible in spring training, earning a roster spot out the gate, despite limited professional action. This Astros lineup, albeit with different parts, should have a similar sum. The front two of this rotation is pretty much solidified. Framber Valdez will continue to deal, posting a 2.91 ERA in large part because of his innate ability to generate ground balls. Hunter Brown is legitimately really good, landing below 3.5 on the ERA side in 2024, he possesses the stuff to take the next step. The back 3 have a bit more question marks surrounding them. Ronel Blanco was tremendous in 2024, but 2.8 ERA is a bit misleading as most peripheral indicators have him closer to a 4. Spencer Arrighetti and Hayden Wesneski have some solid stuff, but really haven’t shown anything at the MLB level. Houston shelters the best bullpen duo in baseball, even without Ryan Pressly. Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu weren’t at their best in 2024. However, both of their peripheral metrics indicate that 2024 was a one off and they will likely return to their career norms. The bullpen is top heavy, but supremely talented. I am not so sure we have seen the last of the Houston Astros.

3. Seattle Mariners: 86-78

The lack of urgency to invest in this lineup from the Seattle Front Office is nothing short of mind numbing. Especially when you consider they arguably have the best rotation in the sport, definitely in the American League. When healthy, they boast a starting five of George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo, that is absolutely incredible. While it is obviously highly unlikely, it is not completely asinine to say that every single one of these pitchers could potentially compete for American League Cy Young honors. The bullpen is rock solid as well. Andres Munoz is a complete and total stud, the right handed fire baller saves 22 games last season, as he posted an unreal, 2.12 ERA. Combine him with a slew of trustworthy arms such as Trent Thornton, Gregory Santos, Colin Snyder, Gabe Speier, and Tayler Saucedo, and you get a high end bullpen. There is no bigger contrast in MLB in terms of a a team’s run prevention versus it’s run production. There is a debate swirling around the baseball world, questioning whether this can be attributed to the construction of T-Mobile Park or the construction of this roster. As is the case with most debates of this kind, the answer is, a little bit of both. With that said, let’s get into this widely criticized lineup. Julio Rodriguez burst onto the scene as a rookie, posting an all time rookie season with a 147 OPS+, and earning the American League rookie of the year. He has yet to replicate this production as he has actually declined in the two subsequent years. Hopefully J-Rod can return to peak form. Cal Raleigh is arguably the best catcher in all of baseball, combining elite slugging with elite defense. Outside of the core 2, Randy Arozarena, Victor Robles, Luke Raley, and Rowdy Tellez headline the supporting cast. There is a ton of variability with this group but if they all pan out, this lineup could turn into a solid group. The floor of this team is high on pitching alone, but the ceiling will be determined by how well the lineup performs.

4. Athletics: 75-87

The last half decade has been historically miserable for A’s fans. Starting with the fact that they have been completely non competitive during this period, with the season feeling like it was over before it even started. On top of that, the loyal Oakland fan base had their beloved Athletics stripped away for them in favor of the Sin City. However, a vision is starting to take shape for the Athletics. This lineup is suprisingly exciting. Lawrence Butler was absolutely incredible in the second half of 2024, all signs point to him continuing this progression into a breakout to stardom. Brent Rooker is flat out elite, he posted a 165 OPS+ with 39 homers, which is even more impressive when you consider the cavernous ball park that is the Oakland Coliseum. JJ Bleday and Shea Langeliers with both north of 2 bWAR in 2024. It was impressive to see the Athletics’ system develop two young players who have struggled in the past like this. Zack Gelof had a serious sophomore slump, but I am holding out hope that rookie Zack Gelof is still in there. Max Muncy(No, not that Max Muncy) and Jacob Wilson are two very exciting prospects who are real AL Rookie of the Year hopefuls. The pitching staff is also interesting. The A’s finally broke the bank a little bit, signing Luis Severino for 67 million dollars. They also went out and made a move for Jeffrey Springs, who before he got TJ surgery, was on a fast track stardom down in Tampa. I included Oswaldo Bido on my breakout pitchers list, and for good reason. He has a very encouraging pitch mix with peripherals metrics that predict future success to boot. Estes and Sears are fine lefties that round out the rotation nicely. Mason Miller is fantastic, one of the premier relievers in our game, but outside of him, the Bullpen is bleak. This Athletics team could be the feel good story of 2025.

5. Los Angeles Angels: 65-97

The Angels are the symbol for dysfunction in modern baseball. They were lucky enough to stumble upon one of the greatest players that ever lived. Yet, they have just about nothing to show for it, and it sure doesn’t seems like the tide is going to change anytime soon. Mike Trout is of course incredible but he himself can not carry a lineup, especially with the injury concerns that have surrounded him for the past couple of years. Outside of him, Taylor Ward, Luis Rengifo, Jorge Soler, and Logan O’Hoppe will headline a decent supporting cast. If all goes well, this lineup could fine. However, if you know Angels baseball, you know that the exact opposite is all but guarenteed to happen. The pitching staff, frankly, is atrocious. They paid for Yusei Kikuchi who will be their so called “Ace” but is likely better suited for a 4 or 5 role in an ideal rotation. Jose Soriano is the one to watch here. His stuff is LOUD and he has potential to breakout and potentially make an All Star appearance as soon as this year. I say this with respect to these two veteran southpaws who have had more than respectable careers up to this point, but Kyle Hendricks and Tyler Anderson are not fit to be in a big league rotation at this juncture. With that said, the bullpen is actually very fun. Kenley Jansen is past it obviously, but he is no slouch, even at his age. Ben Joyce may be the most enjoyable watch in baseball, watching him throw 104 MPH flame balls with absolutely zero direction is a blissful experience. Will it result in a ton of wins? Perhaps not, but it is one of the only reason to actually turn on an Angels baseball game. I wish the best for the Angels, Mike Trout and October baseball deserve each other, but I do not see it coming to fruition anytime soon.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

By Joe Browne

1. Los Angeles Dodgers: 106-56

his team is ridiculously good and everybody knows it. They steamrolled their way to a World Series last season, and added to that core this offseason. The additions of Saski, Snell, Scott, Yates and Conforto will all look to be major contributors on both sides of the ball. The 1-3 in the order of Ohtani, Betts and Freeman is arguably the best we have ever seen in the history of the game. Three future hall of farmers that are all still producing at an elite rate. This lineup is so great that a guy like Tommy Edman who won NLCS MVP a season ago is slotted in the 8-hole. Meanwhile, the pitching staff is just as ridiculously good as the lineup is. The rotation and bullpen are both all around star studded groups. The craziest part of this whole thing is that the Dodgers pretty much have ten guys who could be starters in the big leagues in their organization. They quite literally have two full MLB caliber starting rotations when everyone is healthy. On paper this bullpen is still one of the bets in the game despite the injuries to Phillips, Kopech, and Graterol. Once again, showing how much depth exists in this organization and with this current team. Add all of this up and maybe, just maybe, this Dodger team could give the 116 win 2001 Mariners a run for their money.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks: 93-69

Arizona was left watching the postseason from home last season after getting the short-end of the stick in a three way tie with the Mets and Braves. A disappointing season following a National League pennant in 2023. The best offensive attack in baseball last season resided in Phoenix scoring 886 total runs across 162. The problem was the pitching which was a bottom five unit in the game. So, Arizona went out and got a true ace in the form of Corbin Burnes. He was nails in his lone season in Baltimore and now comes to Arizona on a well deserved big-time contract. That aforementioned best offense in baseball lost stalwart Christian Walker to free agency and responded by adding Josh Naylor. Naylor posted very similar numbers to Walker last season when he was in Cleveland. Also, a full season’s worth of production from young stud Corbin Carroll would be key due to his painful inconsistency last season. I would be remiss to not mention Ketel Marte who finished third in NL MVP balloting a season ago and is right in the thick of his prime. The hope is that the offense will continue to produce at the level it did last season but this time the pitching staff also does their job. On paper, the pitching, especially the rotation should be able to do just that. The National League Wild Card race is surely going to be a jumble all summer long; the D-Backs will be right in the mix.

3. San Diego Padres: 85-77

The Padres posed the greatest challenge to the Dodgers in the postseason last year. They were the only team that ever forced LA into playing in an elimination game last postseason. Of course, San Diego fell short and entered 2025 with a very similar squad to last year. AJ Preller has built the reputation as a very aggressive baseball executive but that was not the case this offseason. The only move of note that San Diego made was the signing of starting pitcher Nick Pivetta late in the offseason. For a team that was not ready to compete with the best of the best in the NL last season you would think they would do more. The top of the order remains star-studded with the likes of Tatis, Machado, Merrill and Arraez. The worry for me comes at the bottom of this order. Guys like Gavin Sheets, 40 year-old Yuli Gurriel and Jason Heyward are not going to be impact bats. Pair that with the fact San Diego probably has the most offensively weak catching duo in the league with the likes of Maldanado and Diaz. The depth in the starting rotation is also alarming. Musgrove is out for the year and Darvish is already on the shelf. Two key injuries already make way for San Diego’s poor rotational depth to rear its head. This team is very solid, but in a steep division and a tough National League a second consecutive postseason berth is going to be an uphill battle.

4. San Francisco Giants: 82-80

This Giant team is not too shabby, but in no world will they be competitive with the upper class in the National League. This roster has talent particularly in the batting order. Matt Chapman was quietly fantastic in his first season with the Giants last year. Newcomer Willy Adames will join him in the meat of this order. Adames was an elite hitter with RISP in Milwaukee last season driving in 112 runs to go with 32 homers a season ago. In fact, the Giants have not had a player hit 30+ homers since Barry Bonds did it way back when. Both Adames and Chapman are capable of snapping that franchise cold spell in 2025. Heliot Ramos, coming off a breakout 2024 campaign and a returning Jung Hoo Lee round out an overall solid group of hitters. Logan Webb once again will headline the rotation in 2025. Webb has been the definition of consistency and availability for the Giants the past four seasons. Behind him will be Justin Verlander who at age 42 is trying to track down 300 career wins. Last year was rough for Verlander missing half of the season and struggling when he did toe the slab. Crossbody thrower Ryan Walker took over the closer role last season following Camilo Doval’s struggles. Those two, if on their game, are going to be one of the best 1-2 reliever punches in the game. To reiterate, this team is not bad but this roster lacks the starpower required to hang with the big dogs. The Giants seemingly have not been able to put together a roster cable of doing so for years.

5. Colorado Rockies: 55-107

It is going to be another year in the cellar of this division for the Rockies in 2025.  However, this season just might be a tad more exciting than ones we have seen in years past. Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar are two rising stars in this game who are super fun to watch. In fact, the only reason you should ever turn a Colorado Rockies game on this year is because of those two studs. Outside of Doyle and Tovar, Toglia is another young guy that you should keep your eye on. Under the radar, he blasted 25 homers last season and could very well be a 30+ homer candidate this season. For the Rockies sake here’s to hoping that Ryan McMahon can put together a respectable season and be dealt for some decent prospects at the deadline. The pitching will once again be terrible. Not only because of the elevation of Coors field but also because on paper this is the worst staff in baseball. The Rockies are going to give up a boatload of runs once again in 2025. Unfortunately, there is no end in sight for this long and treacherous rebuild. We are still a ways away from the return of Roxtober baseball.

Sources:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

FanGraphs

MLB.com

By Jonah Drew

1. Kansas City Royals: 88-74

2024 was a renaissance of a season for Kansas City, winning 86 games and even winning a wild card series in Baltimore. Prior to this, the Royals had been perpetually in the bottom of the American League since their world championship in 2015. The face of the turnaround has indubitably been Bobby Witt Jr. Formerly the top overall prospect in baseball, Witt posted an absolutely historic season in 2024. He posted an ungodly 9.4 win season, a 171 OPS, and a 30/30 season. He would have been a surefire MVP if Aaron Judge had not posted an equally historic campaign. Another reason I like this lineup is Vinnie Pasquantino, he is very well rounded, balancing quality of contact with quantity of contact as well as anyone in baseball. Although Salvy is polarizing, you know he is going to produce in the power department. Maikel Garcia is one of my favorite breakout picks for a reason. Jonathan India should take advantage of a cavernous Kauffman outfield and pepper the gaps. I do not love this outfield though, I would like to see them get aggressive and make a move for a corner masher at the trade deadline, that would truly make this offense potent in a playoff setting. The rotation is a major strength of this team, Cole Ragans has turned himself into a bonafide ace since coming over from Texas, he legitimately has a chance to compete for a Cy Young in 2025. Seth Lugo broke out massively in 2024, he posted a 3.00 ERA in 2024 and proved he can more than handle a starters workload, earning 2nd place Cy Young honors. Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen are both solid innings eaters who provide some comfort and reliability. Kris Bubic is another very popular breakout pick as he was starting to hit his stride before he got the hammer in 2023. The bullpen is another strength of this roster. Free agent acquisition for Philly, Carlos Estevez should sure up the back end of this bullpen and rack up 20+ saves. Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey are both quality relievers with violent stuff. The back end of this bullpen has been bolstered significantly in the last 12 months with the recent offseason and deadline transactions. This roster is being overlooked, they will have a quality arm on the mound eternally, and they also have one of the 3 best players in baseball with exciting bats to boot, watch out for Kansas City to continue their ascension in 2025.

2. Cleveland Guardians: 85-77

The Guardians had a fantastic season in 2024 season, winning 92 games and reaching an ALCS before falling in five to the New York Yankees. I have to say though, this season felt like a big of an overachievement. While I give them a lot of credit for winning so consistently like they did, I have to question, is this winning formula sustainable? I fear the answer is no. Listen, they didn’t win 92 games off of pure luck, but I don’t know if they will be a consistent heavy hitter in the American League. They heavily relied on the most inconsistent position group in all of sports: The Bullpen. The Cleveland Guardians bullpen was historically good, led by Emmanuel Clase, and helped by historic campaigns from Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, Eli Morgan, and Erik Sabrowski. Now while these guys are good relievers with strong long terms outlooks, I think they all collectively came together to have outlier seasons which I just can’t see happening again. I do expect this bullpen to be strong again, but there I foresee some regression to the mean. As for the starting rotation, that is where things could get really dicey. This team lacks an ace, Tanner Bibee is their one and he is a solid arm but none of his metrics indicate he is capable of competing aces around the league. Gavin Williams has great stuff and a deep five pitch mix, I do think he takes the leap. I do not see it with Ben Lively, he does not generate whiff and he and he allows hard contact, not exactly a recipe for success. Logan Allen and Luis Ortiz are fine back end arms, but nothing to get excited about. For a team that relies on run prevention to win games, this rotation is a slight bit underwhelming, even if they will get Shane Bieber back at some point. The lineup is solid, but it does not pop. Jose Ramirez is going to continue to do Jose Ramirez things, that being flirting with 30/30 year in and year out, and posting 5+ win seasons. Steven Kwan among the best contact hitters in the game, posting a 128 OPS+ last year combined with a dazzling glove in the outfield. The first base tandem is rock solid, Kyle Manzardo can flat out hit and Carlos Santana is a premier first base defender and is good for an above average bat. Cleveland has a collective of young guys who can really defend but are questionable at the dish. Will Brennan, Gabriel Arias, and Brayan Rocchio fit this mold and the Guardians feel comfortable rolling them out on Opening Day. This falls in line with everything this organization believes, run prevention over run production. While I have my gripes about the pitching of this team and the over reliance on the bullpen, they will likely end up in the top 7 in team ERA because that’s just how it goes in Cleveland, especially with the elite defense behind them.

3. Minnesota Twins: 81-81

On paper, I would admit this is the most talented team in this division as I believe it has been for the past couple of years. Despite this, they have struggled to grab a consistent stronghold on the AL Central, winning it once since Covid. Last year, they were a middling 82-80 and weren’t even in postseason contention by year’s end. A common denominator of the shortcomings has been health or lack thereof. Carlos Correa was superb in his limited time last year, posting a .905 OPS with good defense, but he only played 86 games, limiting his overall value. I hate to say it but, healthy Byron Buxton doesn’t exist, he is pure electricity when healthy but he hasn’t had a relatively healthy season since 2017. The twins have a plethora of young bats to get excited about, Matt Wallner posted a 149 OPS+ last year, both Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach were both comfortably above average hitters last years, and while Eduord Julien struggled badly in 2024, he showed flashes of brilliance in 2023 and makes elite swing decisions for a young hitter. The loss of Carlos Santana will hurt, but the projection models seem to love Ty France so the hope is that he can supplement his production. As I said, the lineup sounds great on paper but if history is any indication, the lineup might look a lot different in a few months. The frontline of the Twins rotation is solid, Pablo Lopez is excellent and Joe Ryan has the stuff to hang with the best in baseball. Bailey Ober has been uber consistent and is all but a guarantee to give Minnesota 160+ Innings at a sub 4 ERA. The back end begs questions from me, Simeon Woods Richardson has a lot of inherent variability and Chris Paddack is just plain bad. I would like to see some of the young prospect David Festa. This bullpen is among the best in baseball, Jhoan Duran may have the best stuff in the history of the sport, nobody has ever thrown 100 MPH splitters, with the option to gas 104 whenever. Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, and Jorge Alcala are all capable of closing out games, yet due to the quality of this stable, they are demoted to tertiary roles. Based on this, it may be confusing that I only have this team winning 81 games, and I get it, because quite frankly the Twins confuse me too.

4. Detroit Tigers: 79-83

2024 was a year of destiny in the motor city. The Tigers went into the 2024 season with basically zero outsider expectations of serious winning. I will brag a little bit and put out there that I correctly predicted this Tigers team to make the Postseason but it was not widely projected. Coming off of an ALDS berth, expectations are beginning to mount. However, I do not love this Tigers roster as much as the general public does. Most of my concerns lie with the lineup and the lack of thump that it contains. It is led by two young up and comers in Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter. Greene was fantastic, he posted a 133 OPS+ and a 5.4 WAR, he is the offensive face of this rebuild. Kerry Carpenter only faces right handers, but he is elite at doing just that, in totality he posted a .932 OPS, pretty dang good. Colt Keith is a former top prospects who had a strong second half and could take a step up. Speaking of former top prospects, former number one overall pick Spencer Torkelson seems to be headed for make or break season on his career in Detroit. Gleyber Torres was the free agent headliner and overall I like the move, for as much slack he gets, he can really hit. There are complementary pieces with upside, but overall this lineup is rather underwhelming outside of Greene and Carpenter. The face of this organization is currently Tarik Skubal. The reigning Cy Young winner is the best pitcher in baseball and is a complete luxury for a team that lacks starting pitching outside of him. By the end of 2024, the Tigers were rolling out a whopping two man rotation of Tarik Skubal and Keider Montero. Montero was clutch down the stretch but I do believe he is due for some regression. Jack Flaherty was a massive addition, he was in the high 20s in K% and is a legit second starter. Reese Olson has quietly tallied up a significant number of innings at a Low 4s ERA, he has become a reliable mid rotation guy. Jackson Jobe, is a fire baller prospect who has the stuff to be fantastic right away. This rotation is the Tigers’ strong suit but it remains to be seen how well it will hold up in today’s landscape. The bullpen is also very strong, spearheaded by Foley and Brieske, bullpen chaos isn’t going anywhere. This team can pitch, but can they score, that remains the question.

5. Chicago White Sox: 60-102

To say that 2024 was a disastrous season for the White Sox would be an understatement. The White Sox were up there with the worst squads in the history of the sport last season, finishing with a putrid 41-121 record, the worst in modern baseball history. Will the White Sox pull off the most miraculous turnaround in the history of baseball? Likely not. However, I do not believe that they will be the worst team of all time again. Luis Robert Jr. seemed disinterested and it resulted in a down year to the tune of an 87 wRC+. Miguel Vargas and Andrew Vaughn are notable bats but outside of those two there is not much to get excited about. I will say though, Lenyn Sosa has some encouraging peripheral metrics that lead me to believe a breakout could be in store for him. Although this lineup will likely be mediocre, I expect it to be an improvement from last year’s version. The pitching is where I really worry about how this team will win games in 2025. Jonathan Cannon is my favorite arm but he is nothing more than a back end guy to me. Martin Perez can eat innings but that’s about it. Outside of those too, I am not sure if there is another major league caliber starter on this roster. I also don’t see how this bullpen can maintain leads if they can manage to get them. It’s looking bleak on the South Side of Chicago, no way around it.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs