By Joe Browne

Record: 68-94

The Nationals still find themselves in the midst of a rebuild heading into the 2024 campaign. It sure does feel like a long time ago that we saw this franchise enter a season with hopes of being competitive even though it was only three years ago. The Nats have seen an immense amount of change in the last half decade since their World Series victory in 2019. In fact, with Stephen Strasburg’s “retirement” a few months ago no player from that championship squad is still on this team. Washington has brought in an immense amount of talent to their farm in recent years but still find themselves a few years away from competing in this division again. Mike Rizzo made a handful of small moves this offseason with potential hopes of flipping the players he brought in for prospect capital at the trade deadline. Names like Joey Gallo, Eddie Rosario and Jesse Winker were all brought in this winter to bring a veteran presence to the clubhouse. Gallo was better with Minnesota last year but is still far removed from his peak production in Texas. Both Rosario and Winker inked minor league deals but I’m sure they will both see the opening day roster in about two weeks. The core hitters of Abrams, Thomas, Ruiz and Menesses will soon be joined by more young and exciting players to give the fans in our nation’s capital something to cheer for. Let’s not sugarcoat this at all, the pitching staff is straight up bad. Last season the staff posted a bottom four ERA as a team at 5.02 and gave up a league leading 245 homeruns. Those numbers are brutal and there was no improvement made to the staff this winter. The rotation features the exact same five arms as last year heading into this year. The highlights on the mound are Josiah Gray and Mackenzie Gore are both already good and are still developing. Hallelujah ! Patrick Corbin’s contract comes off the books after this season. That’s right, only thirty two more starts from Patrick Corbin and he is gone for good ! The rest of this rotation is weak, Corbin certainly does not make it any better. On top of that it has little depth and a handful of injuries could be killer. The bullpen is more of the same and has nothing to marvel at. Simply, this is going to be one of the worst staffs in all of baseball once again in 2024. However, I think the Nationals may begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel this season. We should definitely see the big league debuts of Dylan Crews and James Wood this year. Wood has been on an absolute tear so far this spring and is making a case to snag an opening day roster spot. It is very unlikely considering the 21 year old has yet to reach the AAA level. Their arrival along with the development of Abrams, Thomas and Ruiz does give Nats fans hope for the future. However, it will likely be another season in the NL basement for the Nationals in 2024.

MVP: CJ Abrams

The time is now for the centerpiece of the Juan Soto deal to become the face of this Nationals franchise. Abrams posted solid numbers in his first full big league season in 2023. Especially in the second half of the season where he really turned it on. Abrams swiped 33 bags in the second half last year to go with 11 homers. Overall, he finished with 18 jacks and swiped 47 bags. He has legit 20 homer 50 steal potential in 2024. The key for Abrams taking the next step is getting on base more this season. He posted an abysmal .300 OBP last year and only walked 32 times. If Abrams can find a way to get on base more consistently on top of his improved power and elite speed on the basepaths, he will be the Nats best player in 2024. 

Cy Young: Josiah Gray

Gray had a really solid season last year which included earning his first career all star nod. He made huge strides from 2022 in the homerun department. He surrendered a whopping 38 homers in 2022. Last year, he got that number down to 22 in more innings pitched. That was huge for Gray and a major reason why he earned an all star nod in July. However, Gray still struggles with too many walks. He posted a BB9 at 4.5 last year and a BB% at 11.5%. If Gray can continue to limit his homers allowed and cut down on his walks I expect him to take another step forward and emerge as shining light on this otherwise weak staff. 

Breakout: Stone Garrett

Stone Garrett may miss the beginning of 2024 season due to a leg injury, but when he is healthy and back on the field I expect him to emerge as an impact player for Washington. Garrett has not appeared in a game all spring for the Nats yet so safe to assume that he will be placed on the IL to start the season. Thankfully, barring a setback he should not for an extended period of time. I’m excited to see a near full season of Stone in the bigs. In 89 games last year Garrett slashed a strong .269/.343/.457. He added 9 homers and 40 RBI to go with those numbers. The reason I really like Garett is because he uses his big frame to his advantage by hitting the  ball hard. He posted an average exit velocity of 91.1 MPH last year and a hard hit percent at 48.4%. Washington currently only has one sure-fire outfielder on the roster in Lane Thomas. Once healthy, Garrett will slot right into a corner outfield spot for Davey Martinez. I am expecting big things from Stone Garrett in 2024. 

ROTY: Dylan Crews

After posting one of the most dominant seasons in the history of college baseball last year and a season that resulted in a national championship at LSU, Dylan Crews was selected 2nd overall by Washington. Crews is clearly on the fastrack straight to D.C. He played 20 games at the AA level in the same year he was drafted. He tore the cover off the ball in 14 games at single A Fredericksburg posting a 1.068 OPS. Crews production was slowed more at AA after he earned a promotion. I do not worry about this at all he was burned out after having his college season last until June 26th. Crews had a short turnaround because his college season lasted so long.  No matter if he starts the year in AA Harrisburg or at AAA Rochester Crews will make his big league debut in 2024. He has unlimited talent which includes a 70 hit grade, 60 power grade and 60 run grade. Crews has true 5 tool potential and is a generational talent. Nationals fans are lucky to have Crews on their team for years to come. 

Sources:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

CBS Sports

Fangraphs

MLB Pipeline

Spotrac

Statmuse

By Joe Browne

Record: 86-76

Simply put, the Mets were a disaster last year. On Opening Day last year the Mets had a payroll north of 270 million dollars. That is an insane number looking at where they are not even a year later. What happened, you might ask, clashing egos, decreased chemistry and a lack of discipline led to the club’s downfall last year. Just a year prior they won 101 games and were in fact, a well disciplined tight knit group. Owner Steve Cohen and then GM Billy Eppler saw an opportunity last summer to blow up a talented yet struggling team and so, they did just that. Cohen, instead of taking a half measure and relying on hope his club would find a way to win again, took a full one. Replenishing his farm and in the process by tearing his big league club down. At the time, it was painful for me as a fan to see my team sell like a vendor at the deadline in a year where I expected them to win a World Series. Sometimes, reality can be harsh and in 2023 it was exactly that for the Amazin’s. Now, the Mets have a much different group heading into a “gap year” if you will. The position player group has a few new additions such as veteran outfielders Harrison Bader and Tryone Taylor. Neither of whom do I think will be amazing but will both certainly see significant playing time. The core of Lindor, Alonso, Nimmo, McNeil and Alvarez is still intact. I expect a bounce back from McNeil and a monstrous breakout from Alvarez that will make this core even stronger. The pitching staff is a much different story. We will start with the returners in Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana. The Mets will be without Senaga, their ace, for the first month or so but have the depth to cover the innings in his short absence. Quintana will look to be healthier this year after just throwing 75.2 innings last year. His ability to limit the home run ball is exceptional and he is one of the best in baseball at it. The rotation, when fully healthy, will see three new starters: Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Adrian Houser. Houser was rock solid for years in Milwaukee and proved to be a reliable back end starter. Sean Manaea comes off a season in San Francisco where he spent a majority of his time in a bullpen role. However, David Stearns inked the lefty to a 2 year 28 million dollar deal in January. This is because Stearns and the Mets see potential in the 32 year old. His fastball velocity was the highest it has ever been last year. Add that with elite extension and Manaea has perceived velocity on that heater because he releases it closer to the plate then most. The last of the trio is Luis Severino, let’s not sugarcoat this one he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. However, just one year before last he had a nice 124 ERA+ and very solid season in the Bronx. Also, the Yankees made Severino change his delivery last year because they feared he was going to tip his pitches too easily. The Mets have given him more freedom and it has shown to be fruitful early as he has tossed five scoreless innings so far in the Grapefruit league. None of these three are going to win a Cy Young, but I fully expect all three to put together solid seasons and give the Mets a chance every fifth day. The bullpen dearly missed Edwin Diaz last year but now he is back and ready to reclaim his crown as the best closer in the sport. His return added with newcomers Jake Diekman, Jorge Lopez, Michael Tonkin and Shintaro Fujinami round out to make this an overall solid pen. 86 wins may seem like a lot to some but this team has a core of established hitters with a much improved staff from last year. There is potential here, some of these additions will be great and others won’t be but, overall I still believe this team is good. There is no pressure on this group now and that may just happen to be their biggest advantage. This Mets season has already been tossed away by many baseball fans before it has begun. This team is still good and they will prove it by being competitive for an NL Wildcard spot all year long.

MVP: Francisco Lindor

Lindor is the definition of a superstar, and the face of this Mets franchise. He has finished ninth in NL MVP voting two consecutive years and last year he added a 30-30 season and a silver slugger to that. It is not just the elite switch hitting offense, it’s the elite defense at shortstop as well. That defense ranked in the 90th percentile for OAA in 2023. Pair that with his great leadership and it is clear Lindor will be the Mets MVP once again in 2024. I’m sure Pete Alonso in his contract year will not make it easy for Lindor to be the Mets best player again but Lindor’s overall value is just too great. 

Cy Young: Edwin Diaz

It is going to be rare to see a reliever get picked to be the best pitcher on a team during these prediction articles but Diaz may be the lone exception. That is a testament to how dominant Edwin DIaz truly is. Even off the knee injury I have no doubt that Diaz will return to his dominance when the Trumpets sound in Flushing. The last time we saw Diaz on a major league field he had some absurd numbers. The following numbers were all in the 100th percentile for pitchers in 2022: xERA (1.69), xBA(.149), Whiff %(49.9%) and K%(50.2%). Diaz struck out over half the batters he faced in 2022, take a second and realize how insane that actually is. While these numbers will no doubt be tough to replicate, I believe Diaz will flirt with similar numbers once again in 2024. 

Breakout: Francisco Alvarez

The former number one prospect in all of baseball is here to stay. Alvarez was a huge spark for the Mets last season, and in 2024 he will take the leap to being an elite catcher. His numbers do not look as good as they should have last year because he definitely got burned out toward the end of the year. For a 22 year old Alavrez has an unmatched work effort and willingness to learn. He received praise from future Hall Of Famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer for his ability to call games as a rookie last year. He popped 25 jacks last year and I expect that number to be right around there once again in his sophomore season. His defense has improved vastly so far in spring training and Alavrez will be able to control the basepaths much better in 2024. I’m very confident Alavrez will take a massive leap this season and assert himself as an elite major league catcher in 2024. 

ROTY: Nate Lavender

There are very limited options here due to Ronny Maurcio’s season ending injury he suffered in the Dominican Winter Ball. However, Nate Lavender is the option for this award. best Do not worry if you do not know who Nate Lavender is. I think Mets fans especially should get to know the 24 year old former 14th round pick. Lavender has been spectacular in spring training thus far striking out seven batters in three scoreless innings. He will give the Mets another left handed reliever option alongside veterans Brooks Raley and Jake Diekman. He has shown in spring training his ability to mix up his timing and deliveries to throw hitters off which is very valuable. Also, Lavender presents reverse splits, right handed hitters slashed .164/.265/.336 against him at AAA Syracuse last year. He may not make the opening day roster but  I’m sure we will see the big league debut of Lavender in 2024.

Sources:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

MLB Pipeline

By Jonah Drew

Record: 85-77

Every year there is a team that comes out of absolutely nowhere and gets into the postseason. In 2022 it was the fellow AL Central member, Cleveland Guardians, this past year it was Arizona. The snakes not only snuck into the playoffs, but they did major, major damage, winning the NL Pennant and eventually falling to the Rangers in 5 games. Now, this is not to say expect the Tigers to run the table and win the American League pennant. However, it is to say I expect Detroit to shock the world in 2024, making the playoffs and potentially making some noise. I believe this to be the most underrated ball club in all of baseball for a multitude of reasons. Lets start with the lineup, Riley Greene is one of the more talented young players in our game, Kerry Carpenter is one of, if not the most underrated hitter in baseball, and Spencer Torkelson has the potential to be a premier power bat. Mark Canha and Gio Urshela are also some steady veterans with post season expierience. You probably did not know Jake Rogers hit 21 bombs in just over 300 PAs last year. There is also plenty of youth to dream on, Colt Keith is a stud, plain and simple, slashing .306/.380/.552 with 27 HRs across the upper levels in just his age 21 season. A personal favorite of mine is Justyn-Henry Malloy , whom has one of the best approaches you will see from a player his age. The pitching staff is what really gets me excited though. I will save my Skubal erasure for the MVP category but he is far from alone. Kenta Maeda was one of my favorite signings of the off season, he sneaky had a better xERA than NL Cy Young winner, Blake Snell. I questioned GM Scott Harris for not trading relievers Alex Lange and Jason Foley, but all of a sudden they look to be part of a core that could take the Motor City back to October. In a weak division, I expect the Tigers to pounce.

MVP: Tarik Skubal

To say I am bullish on Tarik Skubal would be the understatement of the god damn year. He may or not be my pick to win the American League Cy Young, no not my dark horse pick, my actual pick. But we will save that conversation for the awards predictions write-up. Skubal is absolutely NASTY, this is a guy who sits high 90s and looks to be near 100s regularly in 2024, from the left side no less. To go along with that is a changeup with a measly .167 BAA. Granted it was against weirdly poor competition, but Skubal was virtually untouchable post injury last season. Skubal’s 2.7 ERA is more than backed up by his underlying data. Starting with his basic ERA estimators, an xERA of 2.3 and a FIP of 2 flat serve to display the excellence of the southpaw. His K-BB ratios are equally impressive, a K% of 32.9% and a BB% 4.5, very hard to come by. Everything about this profile is simply elite, I challenge you to poke a hole in the game of Tarik Skubal.

Cy Young: Kenta Maeda

Of course, if Tarik Skubal was not my pick to be this team’s Most Valuable Player, he would be a shoe in for this honor, but Kenta Maeda is no slouch. There seems to be a common theme throughout this ballclub, everyone and everything is underrated. Kenta Maeda is a headliner for the underrated movement up north. No, Maeda as or 2 is far from ideal but contrary to the public opinion, you can do a lot worse. You will not see him light up the radar gun but Maeda still does generate plenty of swing and miss. He does this with one of the better off speed pitches in the American League, his Split Finger.

Breakout: Spencer Torkelson

You could make a very valid argument that Spencer is not even eligible for this honor, considering how solid his 2023 season was in comparison to his horrid 2022 rookie campaign. I have to politely disagree though, I think Tork is about to take his production to a whole new level. He hit 31 bombs last year and really started to heat up down the stretch. In the second half, Tork showed us why he was the #1 pick back in 2020 out of Arizona State, OPSing .816. The reason those 31 pumps were so impressive is because one, he plays in Comerica Park, a heavy pitchers park. The main reason it was so impressive was because he did not lift the ball particularly well, this speaks to his ability to impact the baseball. Over 50% of his batted balls were hit over 95 MPH, this was in the top 6% of all major leaguers. It also helps that he does not expand his zone, with a chase rate in the 80%.

ROTY: Colt Keith

Keith was selected in the final round of the shortened 2020 Draft as a prep infielder out of Biloxi HS. He was was originally committed to Arizona State but was pried away from the Sun Devils with a 500k signing bonus. Keith is a very safe hitting prospect with both plus hit and plus power. Keith slashed .306/.380/.552 with 27 Homers and 101 RBI. Keith did this in just his Age 21 season. Keith has a very good approach, and also has the impact to go along with it. This makes for a very tough AB every single time that he steps into the box. Although he will likely not provide any value at Third or Second, I am confident he will produce enough to provide plenty of value as a rookie.