By Jonah Drew

Record: 73-89

The Royals and their fan base have long slept through free agency. This is due to Owner John Sherman being cheap and under financed in comparison to his peers. However, this past off season, John Sherman ponied up and spent some money. No, Kansas City did not go out and sign Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but they did sign some quality veterans. They signed Hunter Renfroe, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Adam Frazier, Will Smith, Chris Stratton, and Nick Anderson. They also traded for former Boston reliever John Schrieber. I get it, individually, these are run of the mill moves that do not really matter in the grand scheme of things but together they make for at least a watchable product. This is saying a lot because since their World Series run all the way back in 2015 they have been the epitome of incompetence, Posting a record of 499-695 since 2015, including a 56 win season in 2023. I have seen some baseball media outlets predicting the Royals to have a 85+ win season and I simply can not get behind that. Adding names like Renfroe and Lugo is not enough to convince me that you can go from 56 wins all the way to 85+. I do not think these outlets fully recognize how big of a jump that is, 73 wins would be a relatively successful season considering where they have been recently. The Royals handed young phenom Bobby Witt Jr. a Pre arbitration deal and I feel confident saying that they will not regret it. Witt is a threat to steal 50 bags, Hit 40 homers and hit .300. Vinnie P missed time last year but when healthy, he is one of the better first basemen in the American League. Analytically minded baseball minds like myself are drinking the Maikel Garcia kool-aid and guys like M.J. Melendez and Nick Pratto have some upside offensively. The rotation is nothing to write home about but it can be solid. Cole Ragans has ticked up in every way since coming from Texas and has transormed himself into a potential ace. Brady Singer was elite in 2022 and had the looks of a great young pitcher but his 2023 was a massive let down, posting an ERA north of 5. Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo are solid arms to provide reasonably solid innings. Jordan Lyles however is a scheduled loss, I believe they would be better suited with almost anybody holding down the 5 spot. The bullpen is fine with James Mccarthur, Will Smith, and John Schrieber holding down the back end. Overall, I expect Kansas City to be much improved but they are still a year or two away from actually being a post season contender.

MVP: Bobby Witt Jr.

Bobby Witt Jr. was as highly touted as anybody heading into 2022. Witt was billed as the man to bring baseball back to Kansas City. From a team success perspective, no, he has not done so, the Royals have been bottom dwellers of the American League for both years of his big league career. But from an individual perspective he has more than pulled his weight, especially in 2023. Witt was elite in all facets of the game this past year. Defensively, Witt was fantastic, posting 14 outs above average, good for 98th percentile and has a rocket for an arm. Witt is also casually the fastest man in baseball, posting run times in 100th percentile and stealing damn near 50 bags. He also has some serious juice posting exit velocities and barrel rates all in the 70th percentile and above. His peripherals say that he should have been much better than his already stellar .276/.319/.495. Witt is a real threat to go 40/40 next season and I would go as far to say that I expect him to do so.

Cy Young: Cole Ragans

Cole Ragans is an anomaly in every way. You simply never see south paws with this kind of diabolical arsenal. Ragans was sent over to Kansas City by way of the Texas in exchange for another lefty flamethrower in eventual champion Aroldis Chapman. I do not know what the Royals did to Cole Ragans’ left arm but it worked. Ragans saw an unforeseen velocity tick up that led to him being one of the best pitchers in baseball in the second half of 2023. Pre all star break, Cole Ragans had an ERA near 6 and was a lottery ticket going to Kansas City. Post all star break, posted an elite 2.64 in 71.2 Innings. Sitting 97 from the left side, Ragans had a whiff rate of 30.9% and a strikeout rate of 28.8%. A very north-south pitcher, Ragans’ changeup was virtually unhittable in 2023, his main secondary had an xBAA of .195 and had a whiff rate of 34.4%. Watch out for Ragans in the American League Cy Young race in 2024.

Breakout: Maikel Garcia

Maikel Garcia is your favorite baseball nerd’s breakout pick for 2024, here is why. Garcia was a very solid player in 2023, his rookie season. Garcia plays a tremendous third base, his fielding run value is in the 94th percentile, his OAA is in the 98th percentile, and his arm strength is in the 71st percentile. This is an elite defensive profile by every stretch of the word. Garcia is also a sneaky good base stealer, he stole 23 bases in ’23. This is all great and I expect it to continue but this combined with an analytical profile that is screaming for a breakout, you have what has the potential to be one of the best third basemen in baseball. Now, what is a barrel, this is a common misconception among baseball fans, a barrel is when a batted ball has an exit velocity of 95 MPH or better and has a launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees. Garcia did both of these things extremely well, he hit the ball 95 MPH or better 50.6% of the time, good for the 93rd percentile. He also hit the ball between 8 and 32 degrees, 36.9% of the time, good for 76th percentile. Well then, what gives, it just so happens that Garcia rarely did both of these things at the same time, leading to a barrel rate in the 10th percentile, this is very unusual and I highly doubt it continues. Do not be shocked when Garcia is among the league leaders in WAR this time next year.

ROTY: Nick Loftin

Speaking candidly, this Royals system is rough, talent is scarce both on the position player and the pitching side. No, Nick Loftin is not going to come up and be a franchise savior or anything close but he is a solid ball player. Loftin actually performed well in limited big league action this past year, posting an OPS above .800. Loftin may not be on the opening day roster and there is no clear spot to pencil him in but since he can play almost anywhere on the diamond, I have no doubt he will have an impact on this team in 2024. Loftin can hit 10+ homers and can steal 10+ bags. That combined with his defensive versatility should make him at least serviceable in 2024.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

MLB Pipeline

By Jonah Drew

Record: 97-65

For some god forsaken reason, this team is being overlooked. It seems baseball fans have already forgot that the Astros were just one game away from being right back in the fall classic. As a community, I do not believe that we give this dynasty enough credit, the last time there was not American League Championship Series baseball being played down in Houston, Barack Obama was still in office, just think about that for a second. Frankly, I do not believe that this will change in 2024. This roster absolutely stacks up with any in the American League. Houston’s 90 wins were enough to barely win an absolute warzone of a division in the AL West, and I only expect them to improve. It is hard to poke a hole in this lineup top to bottom. Jose Altuve was nearly a 3 win player with a 151 OPS+ in just 90 Games last year, he is very much still kicking. This top 4 is still one of the best in baseball and they showed it in 2023, Yordan put up an elite 170 OPS+ as just a 26 Year Old. Even through a slow start, Alex Bregman still put up 25 Homers and a 122 OPS+ with elite K:BB ratios. I will jump off the Kyle Tucker wagon, the guy was one homer away from a 30/30 season and his peripherals say that he will likely be even better in 2024. It is clear we have seen the best of Jose Abreu but I believe he is still a massive X-Factor, if he can simply be an above average bat, he could take this lineup to the next level. Martin Maldonado was frankly awful this past year, both at the plate and even being it, and yet he still played over a 128 OPS+ guy in Yainer Diaz. I expect Yainer do the same thing in much more opportunity. Chas McCormick was sneaky one of the better out fielders in baseball this past year. Jeremy Pena, Jake Meyers, and Mauricio Dubon are all plus defenders up the middle, providing good depth with some nice upside. The rotation is still solid despite the fact that Justin Verlander will miss some time at the start of the season. Framber Valdez did struggle at times in 2023 but all things considered, a 3.45 ERA in 198 IP is not too shabby, all this guy does is get ground balls, giving him a very high floor. Christian Javier was a popular Cy young pick going into 2023 but he struggled to miss bats and if he can’t miss bats then it is going to be rough for him. It remains to be seen if he can get back to his old, whiff heavy ways. Hunter Brown was my American League Rookie of the Year pick ahead of 2023, despite the ERA being north of 6 in the second half, I keep my faith. Now to the best bullpen in all of baseball and one of the best back ends in recent memory. Ryan Pressley saved 31 games last year and he will be demoted to a setup role. Bryan Abreu was almost the undisputed best setup man in all of baseball, boasting an absolutely absurd 241 ERA+. He will likely pitch the seventh inning, that is inconcievable. All this to say, Josh Hader. Josh Hader had a shockingly bad 2022 but he is back, Hader saved 33 Games with a 1.28 ERA in San Diego. Houston picked him up for 95 Million across 5 years, forming what is essentially a super-pen. I think there is some slight fatigue with the Astros, but don’t be fooled, this team is as talented as ever.

MVP: Kyle Tucker

It may seem crazy to say Kyle Tucker will provide more value to the Houston Astros than Jose Altuve or Yordan Alvarez, and hell, maybe it is. That said, I am going to be on Kyle Tucker train until the wheels fall off. If you can poke a hole in the game of Kyle Tucker, suffice to say, I would be impressed. Tuck struck out just over 13% of the time last season, good for 94th Percentile. The dude never chases, he does not whiff, and if you try him in the zone, he will make you pay. Kyle Tucker is just an impossible out. Tucker is an analytical darling, his .386 xwOBA is in the 95th Percentile, his xBA of .292 is in the 94th Percentile, and his xSLG of .530 is in the 93rd Percentile. The predictive metrics are expecting even a tick up from his already elite, 5.4 win, 142 OPS+ season. Not to mention the fact that he casually stole 30 Bags to go along with this elite performance at the dish. Tucker’s poor fielding metrics were an outlier, he has historically graded out as one of the best at his position. This is normal for the imperfect fielding metrics, I am not worried and I expect them to be right where they have always been.

Cy Young: Framber Valdez

Framber is a ground ball specialist at heart but he is far from your usual inning eating average ground ball getter. Framber is a four pitch pitcher, 3 of those pitches have whiff rates above 30% and 2 of them with whiff whiff rates of 40% or more, those being his Curveball and his Cutter. This is not normal for someone who generates grounders the way he does. Valdez’s abysmal average exit velocity is basically null and void, because almost every time that ball is spiked straight into the floor. This is seen by his 55.2 Ground ball rate and his average launch angle of 4.2 which is actually an 8 degree increase from his absurd 2022 launch angle. Hit the ball as hard as you please, it simply won’t matter. Barring injury, Framber will likely pitch nearly 200 Innings of low 3s ball because that is simply what he does.

Breakout: Hunter Brown

Hunter Brown had some serious prospect pedigree heading into the 2023 MLB season. Things started out more than fine for the rookie arm, Brown’s pre break ERA of 4.12 was on par with expectations. It all started to fall apart after the summer classic though, Brown posted an ERA above 6 in the second half. I believe this can be attributed to some mismanagement by Houston, Brown had barely thrown more than 100 Innings in a season and he was forced to throw 155 in 2023. I believe he will be more adjusted for full workload in 2024. Like Valdez, Brown is also an elite generator of Ground Balls, in the 87th percentile of GB%. Brown also has great K/BB ratios, striking out nearly 27% of batters. I see no reason Brown can not be a good mid rotation arm now that he is adjusted to the workload necessary for that role.

ROTY: Spencer Arrighetti

I would not fault you at all for not knowing who Spencer Arrighetti is. He is not a high profile prospect at all, and I am not here to argue that he is some massively under valued, hidden gem of an arm. This one of the worst systems in baseball, and the two prospects I really like(Brice Matthews and Jacob Melton) will most likely not make a real impact on the big club in 2024. That said, I do believe Spencer Arighetti can moderately help this team in 2024. He has 3 solid pitches and has been serviceable in the upper levels both as a starter and a little bit as a reliever. The back end of this rotation is far from solidified and neither is the bottom of this bullpen. I fully expect Arrighetti to be up pitching solid innings either in the pen or as a spot starter in Houston.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

Spotrac

By Joe Browne

Record: 92-70

Let’s set the scene, it’s August 4th 2023 and the Philly faithful made a decision that would change the course of their teams season. The fans opted to for once not boo the then struggling superstar Trea Turner. Rather, they gave him a standing ovation. Turner felt the support of his fanbase that night and finally after months of hearing it from the fans, felt like Phillie. He had an RBI single that night but the real story came the next day. Bottom of the 6th, two on no outs, Phillies down 6-5. Turner steps up to the plate to yet another ovation from the fans. Angel Zerpa gave Turner a 94 mph fastball right in on the hands just where he likes it and it was sent 383 feet into the left field seats. Why is this so important ? Well because the standing ovation Turner was given changed the entire outlook on the Phillies season. Turner absolutely tore it up from there on out and so did the rest of his squad. Philly finished strong going 31-22 the rest of the way and reaching a grand total of 90 wins. They rode it out into the playoffs dominating the Marlins in the Wildcard. Upsetting the Braves in an absolutely thrilling NLDS that delivered many memorable moments. It all came to a screeching halt as they fell just one game short of a second straight NL pennant after being defeated by Arizona. So, make that two straight years where Philly has at least reached the NLCS. Due to this, this offseason POBO Dave Drombroksi said if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Philly returns the exact same lineup and the exact same starting rotation. They made two moves of note this winter. Signing (somehow) 2023 All-Star Whit Merrifield and veteran righty Spencer Turnbull. There’s a reason no major moves were made, this lineup is already very good. Last year this group posted an OPS at .765 and popped 220 homers, 6th and 8th best in baseball respectively. The core of Schwarber, Turner, Harper, Realmuto, Stott, Bohm and Catleanos is elite. Brendan Marsh was very good last year and if he stays healthy should see more AB’s this year. Finally, Johan Rojas is a magician in Center but he won’t hit much at the plate. The rotation is also great. Nola and Wheeler both got paid this offseason and they will headline this rotation once again. Nola should bounce back after a down year last year where he struggled at times. Behind them are Walker, Suarez and Sanchez all three are reliable and solid. The rotation does lack some depth but top prospect Mick Abel is waiting if a spot opens. The bullpen lost Craig Kimbrel but Jose Alvarado will fill his spot surrounded by more solid arms. This team is almost the exact same from last year so I expect a similar win total. A full season of Trea Turner playing the way he should will bump them up a few wins to 92-70 in 2024.

MVP: Trea Turner

I talked a whole lot about Trea Turner above but I did not really break down how much that ovation helped him to finally succeed again. Prior to that standing ovation on August 4th Turner was hitting .235 with 10 homers. Following the standing ovation Turner received he hit .342 with 16 homers. More homers in a smaller sample size, and better numbers in every single category. He became so much more confident following the ovation and completely transformed his season. Now, Turner has accepted Philly and I believe he will have a full season producing at the level we all know he is capable of. Batting average is certainly not the most important stat but expect that number to jump back up to the .280-.290 range this season. Pair that with another 30 stolen base season due to Turner’s 100th percentile sprint speed. Turner will be back to his normal self and Philly’s MVP in 2024. 

Cy Young: Zack Wheeler

This is a very easy pick following Nola’s down year in 2023. Wheeler was absolutely phenomenal again last year posting a 3.61 ERA and an even more impressive 3.15 FIP. It pains me everyday as a Mets fan that we did not re-sign him following the 2019 season. Wheeler has evolved into one of the best pitchers in all of baseball since joining Philly. One of the many reasons Wheeler is so effective is because he consistently pounds the zone. Wheeler is an aggressive pitcher and goes right after hitters with his three different types of fastballs. Wheeler throws a 4-seamer, sinker and cutter. These pitches help him throw a lot of strikes and limit his walks. The only question is will Wheeler win his first NL Cy Young in 2024 ? I certainly know that he is capable of that achievement this year.

Breakout: Christopher Sanchez

Sanchez finally began to see success in 18 starts in the bigs last year. He put up an impressive 124 ERA+ to go with a 3.44 ERA. Philly could use a legit number three starter they can trust behind Wheeler and Nola. Don’t get me wrong, Suarez and Walker are both good but I believe that Sanchez has the potential to be better than both. He posted an elite chase rate at 34.8% last year. This was mainly due to lethal changeup from the left side. It has a lot of bite and falls right off the table toward the bottom of the zone. That pitch also generated Sanchez a offspeed run value at +4 last year. Two other things that Sanchez is elite at are limiting walks and generating ground balls. He has a very solid three pitch mix with his fastball, the aforementioned changeup and a slider. I predict Sanchez continues his trends from last year over a full season and asserts himself as Philly’s game 3 starter come October.

ROTY: Orion Kerkering

If you watched the playoffs last year chances are you have heard or watched Orion Kerkering. Kerkering throws absolute cheddar and is one of those relievers that only has to use two pitches. Kerkering’s two pitch mix contains a sweeper and sinker. He consistently lights up the gun with both. He tossed 5.1 innings in 7 appearances out of the Philly bullpen last postseason. He had 5 K’s in those 5.1 innings showing that the strikeout stuff is definitely there. He only pitched 8.1 big league innings combined in the regular and postseason last year so this is a bit of a gamble on my part. However, I truly believe in Kerkerkings stuff and think he will be a rookie to watch in Philly this season. 

Sources:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

Statmuse