By Jonah Drew

Record: 84-78

The off-season heading into 2023 was an eventful one to say the least, headlined by two frankly unprecedented moves. On December 14th 2022, Carlos Correa signed a monster 13 Year, 350 Million Dollar deal to San Francisco, or did he? Word got out that Giants doctors had concerns about Correa’s ability to stay healthy across the entirety of the deal due to an ankle issue. There was some radio silence then, bam, in the dead of night news broke that the deal with San Francisco fell through and Correa was signing a 12 Year 315 Million Dollar deal with the New York Mets, who had the look of a juggernaut. Once again, concerns arose regarding Correa’s ankle, these talks bled deep into spring training but eventually things came full circle, after plenty of smoke, Correa signed a six year deal to come back to Minnesota. Major Leaguer for Major Leaguer swaps are very rare in today’s MLB for one reason or another. This is why it came as a suprise that the Marlins and Twins were in agreement to send batting champion to Miami in exchange for Pablo Lopez and Jacob Amaya. The jury is still out on the Correa deal of course but as of right now things are not looking good considering Carlos Correa was a below average hitter last season. The Lopez and Arraez deal was one of the more win-win deals in recent memory. Arraez was flirting with .400 for a while and Lopez was a mid 3s guy in nearly 200 Innings and is one of the more valuable pitchers in baseball headed into 2024. These moves culminated in 87 Win season and an ALDS berth. Starting with the lineup, Ryan Jeffers hits the ball about as hard as anybody when he gets into one, hitting a ball 117.2 MPH down in Houston, and posted a 134 OPS+, he is a name to watch ahead of 2024. Edouard Julien is a personal favorite of mine, he is a three true out come guy to a tee, his BB% of 15.7%, 98th Percentile, his K% of 31.4%, 8th Percentile, and combine that with 16 HRs in just 338 ABs, you get a model 3TO player. The crazy part is, it works, Julien posted an OPS+ of 130 in just his rookie season. I simply can not comprehend how you factor Byron Buxton into your 162 game evaluation at this point, the last time the guy played more than 100 games which should not be too much to ask, was 2017. Even when he was on the field in 2023, he was nothing special, barely hitting above the Mendoza line and being a below average hitter. Much of his value comes from his lighting quick speed, this gift was kept in the shadows, in an effort to preserve his health, Buxton was essentially a full time DH and was barely allowed to run. The loss of Sonny Gray can not be understated, the man finished second in Cy Young voting with a 154 ERA+ and a 5.4 bWAR. That said, I still am very much a fan of this rotation. I have already stated my Pablo Lopez support but I must reinforce how valuable a guy who can give you 200 Quality Innings is in an era where the epidemic known as Tommy John surgery seems to be going around. Joe Ryan’s 4.51 ERA is not indicative of the type of pitcher he is, his peripherals have him more in the mid 3s range. Boy do I love a high carry fastball and he has it, posting a 26 degree LA for better or worse. His K/BB ratios are among the best in baseball, being in the 88th Percentile in K rate and the 92nd Percentile in BB rate. Bailey Ober just continues to eat innings and do it well, although I do not believe he is a 3 on a playoff contending team. Paddack and Varland as the 4 and 5 come with a lot of volatility and I would have liked to see them sign a Marcus Stroman to push everybody back a spot. I understand that they wanted to cut costs due RSN issues but is one decent deal really a crazy ask. Even though Jhoan Duran will be on the I.L. to start the season this bullpen is still solid. I trust under the radar relievers like Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart to help carry the load in the abscence of Duran. I expect 2024 to be relatively similar to the 2023 season but the loss of Sonny Gray and some uncertainty regarding health makes me think some slight regression is likely.

MVP: Royce Lewis

To say Royce Lewis has struggled with injuries throughout his pro career would be the understatement of the year. He has torn his ACL, a devastating injury not once but twice as well as having a serious oblique issue with is notoriously nagging. Even through a rigorous stretch of injuries, it has always been clear that Lewis is a supreme talent. The former #1 Pick all the way back in 2017 made his debut in 2022 and looked very strong but as is par for the course, Lewis tore his ACL. Lewis was on the field just enough to provide a solid sample size for the baseball world and he showed out to the tune of a .309/.372/.548 triple slash line. It is clear to me that this was far from a fluke, he is still a very good athlete posting a sprint speed in the 73rd percentile as well as hitting 15 Homeruns in just 239 Plate Appearances. A barrel rate of 11.7% and an xwOBA of .351 both show that his 149 OPS+ was very real. Lewis basically carried this team to a 2-0 sweep over Toronto in the wild card round. Lewis can be a premier third baseman if he can just stay healthy.

Cy Young: Pablo Lopez

Pablo Lopez has become just about as reliable as any over the past couple of years, posting an ERA+ above 109 in significant innings in every season since 2020. You would be hard pressed to poke a hole in Lopez as a pitcher. Lopez’ peripherals are excellent and they would even suggest that his 3.66 ERA in 2023 was unlucky, I say this because both an xERA of 3 flat and a FIP of 3.33 would have potential put him in Cy Young talks. Not to say he would have beat out Gerrit Cole but he would have been on the level with guys like Kevin Gausman and then teammate, Sonny Gray. Lopez struck out batters at a 29.2% clip(87th Pct) and only walked batters at a 6% clip(83rd Pct). This is helped by his Chase Rate of 34.3% and his whiff rate of 30.3%, both of which are elite. Now lets talk pitch arsenal, Lopez has a true 5 pitch mix, all of which are solid big league offerings. I want to highlight one pitch in particular, his sweeper. His sweeper was a new addition to his mix this past year and safe to say it worked. The pitch had an xBAA of .176 and a xwOBA of .205. If he continues to dominate with his sweeper, it make just take him to the next level. Pablo Lopez is 6’4, this helps him generate elite extension, meaning that his already very solid velocity even ticks up since the percieved velocity is actually much higher than what the radar gun will tell you.

Breakout: Griffin Jax

Jax is far from a household name even though he 2022 and 2023 seasons have been more than solid. The guy was horse, appearing in 71 ball games and tallying 65.1 IP. Jax did start to put people on notice with his post season electricity. Jax’s advanced numbers are fantastic, we are looking at an xERA of 2.86 and an xBAA of .214. Jax misses bats well but that is not what he holds his hat on. That would be his innate ability to generate soft contact. A minuscule barrel rate of 3.3% is absolutely elite all the way up in the 97th percentile. If that elite number did not sell you on the Griffin Jax hype, surely a GB% of 56.8% good for the 94th percentile will do the trick. Jax is not liable to the blow up outing, which is common among relievers. Weak ground balls will find a hole once or twice but it is highly unlikely that they pile up to the point where Jax leaves with a crooked number. Jax could even steal some saves in the early absence of flamethrower, Jhoan Duran.

ROTY: Brooks Lee

Brooks lee was selected 8th overall out of Cal Poly by the Minnesota Twins in 2022. Lee is about as safe as they come. This safety comes from the simple fact that Lee rarely swings and misses. His K rate has been in the low teens through out his career in the minor leagues and even much lower than that during his time at Cal Poly. It has been made clear by the Twins as an organization that they will be happy to call up Lee pretty early into the 2024 season. Lee struggled in AAA in 2023 posting a measly 78 WRC+ and a .304 OBP. This is in stark contrast to the rest of his minor league career where his WRC+ has been above 120 at every real stop and his OBP has been in the mid to high .300s at every real stop. He is definitely helping his case in spring training were he has posted a 150 WRC+. Lee is an elite bat to ball hitter with some more pop in the tank, it will not belong before he is making a real impact for the big club.

Sources
Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

Star Tribune

By Jonah Drew

Record: 68-94

The Halos will be lead by a new skipper in 2024, they poached veteran Ron Washington from the Braves. I do like this hire, Washington has been around the block and knows how to implement a winning culture. It would simply be naive not to mention the loss of all losses. One can not fathom the impact of losing a player like Shohei Ohtani and what it does to not only a clubhouse, but a fanbase. Employing Shohei Ohtani brings a completely new demographic to a fanbase, a group of baseball fans that love the game more than anyone, Japanese baseball fans. Japan is as big of a baseball country as any, many may not know that Baseball is statistically the most popular sport. That said, the show must go on and luckily, the Angels still have another all time great in Mike Trout. I have seen the Mike Trout is “Washed” agenda go way too far, the guy hit 40 Homeruns in 119 Games in 2022. He may not be the Trout of old but health permitting, he is still one of the better players in ball. There is something of a young core being built here, Zach Neto looks like the future at the Shortstop spot, Logan O’Hoppe raked when healthy last year, and Nolan Schanuel is one of the most polished young hitters you are going to find. As polished as he is, I still do not really love Nolan Schanuel. In order to draw as many walks as he potentially could, there has to be some threat of impact and he simply does not have it, slugging just .330 in 2023. Brandon Drury was also a very solid acquisition ahead of 2023, despite injury, Drury posted a 114 OPS+ and a quiet 26 homers. I am also here for the Mickey Moniak comeback story, the former #1 overall pick, Moniak was given up on by the Phillies before finding a home in LA, where he had an .802 OPS. Luis Rengifo is also a very real infielder, being an above average hitter each of the last 2 years. Taylor Ward is one of the more underappreciated players in baseball and looks to be a key cog of this lineup in 2024. Without Ohtani, this rotation is kind of bare. I do like a couple of young south paws on this staff though, Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers. Known No-Hitter thrower Reid Detmers is a former first round pick with some good swing and miss stuff. Chase Silseth is looks to be the 5 and he is actually a name to watch if you are looking for good, under the radar pitchers. I was obsessed with Robert Stephenson in free agency and the Angels went out and paid him 33 Million across 3 years. This was slightly more than I thought he’d get but I still think it will be well worth it for Los Angeles. Unfortunately, Stephenson will start the season on the I. L. but when he comes back, I do not expect it to take him too long to be this team’s closer. Carlos Estevez was still very solid closer in 2023, saving 31 Games with an ERA in the High 3s and peripherals to back it up. Middle Relief guys like Matt Moore and Jose Soriano are both relatively reliable and will likely be serviceable in 2024. All of this sounds positive, and it is, but it is hard for me to justify a team winning 73 Games in 2023, losing the most talented player ever, and not getting significantly worse.

MVP: Mike Trout

Can we try not to forget who Mike Trout is, I have seen the likes of Michael Harris ranked over this dude. With respect to Harris, we are talking about 2 completely different stratospheres. Mike Trout may not be mid to early 2010s Mike Trout, but he is still among the best Centerfielders in baseball. In 2022, Mike Trout played just 119 Games, in those 119 Games Trout hit 40 Homeruns and accumulated a 6.3 bWAR. 2023 was an extremely injury riddled season for Trout, he broke his hamate bone, this is a lingering injury that can make it hard for players to even swing a bat. In an injury riddled, supposed down year, Trout put up a 131 OPS+ and was nearly a 3 win player in essentially half a season. I employ you to look at Trout’s Baseball Savant page and tell me with a straight face that he is washed. He still hits the ball as hard as just about anybody with an average exit velocity of 91.9 and a hard hit rate of 51.9%. He also rarely expands his zone, posting a 92nd percentile chase rate. If Trout can stay healthy, he is still absolutely elite and can be a 6+ win player.

Cy Young: Chase Silseth

Silseth is not an ace on any serious team by any means, but that does not make him a bad pitcher by any stretch of the imagination. I have a feeling if you poled the entirety of MLB fans, just a slim percentage of them would say they are aware of Chase Silseth’s existence, and that is a shame. Silseth threw just 52.1 Innings at 3.96 ERA in 2023 and he is still just 23 Years Old. 2 of the main objectives of the modern pitcher are as follows: strike batters out and generate ground balls. Silseth does both of these things at a well above average rate. His 48.9% GB% is good enough for the 80th percentile. His K% of 25.3% is good enough for the 64th percentile. He does this with a very wide variety of pitches, throwing 5 pitches with his 2 best being his Slider and Split Finger. The disparity in spin rate between these 2 offerings is staggering, his Slider boasts an average spin rate of 2766 RPM but his Split Finger has an average spin rate of just 1132 RPM. Both of these spin rates are equally nasty.

Breakout: Logan O’Hoppe

Logan O’Hoppe was selected in the 23rd Round out of NY High School, St. John the Baptist by Philadephia in 2018. He was deemed an “Org Guy”- someone who’s development is not prioritized and is moved up and down the minor leagues depending on needs at different levels. O’Hoppe beat this allegations by absolutely mashing minor league pitching everywhere he went. He was eventually sent to the Angels in exchange for Outfielder Brandon Marsh at the 2022 Deadline. O’Hoppe missed a lot of 2023 with a torn labrum but he was productive in limited action. Logan hit balls 95+ MPH at an optimal Launch Angle at a better rate than just about anybody at 15.6%. His xwOBA of .346 also tells us he is one of the better offensive catchers in the game. Full transparency, O’Hoppe graded out as just about the worst defensive backstop in 2023 with the worst pop time in baseball. Despite his defensive woes, O’Hoppe is still a very productive player and only expect him to improve at just 24 Years Old.

ROTY: Nolan Schanuel

Nolan Schanuel was one of the safe and polished players in the 2023 Draft out of Florida Atlantic. He is naturally very patient and willing to take his walks, hence the elite 15.2 BB% in 2023. Schanuel was fast tracked to the big leagues like almost nobody else has been in recent memory. This seemed to me and most other outsiders as a message to Shohei Ohtani that they were committed to winning right now, as we now know, this message was either not received or neglected. To go along with his top of the line K/BB ratios, Nolan posted a sweet spot rate of 40%, one of the best in baseball. The one thing holding him back is the fact that he is incapable of hitting the ball hard. This is reflected by his bottom of the barrel average exit velocity of 85.4 MPH. Even a slight increase in impact would lead to a massive spike in power production since he already has the ability to lift the ball with consistency. A power tick up would let him add to his already elite K/BB ratios. Although it may be hard to see the vision of a first baseman with no pop, I believe it will be worth it to stick it out due to the immense potential if he can just have a slight power tick up.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

MLB Trade Rumors

MLB.com

By Joe Browne

Record: 80-82

The Brewers look to be headed toward a new era filled with some change and frequent roster churn in 2024. The story of the offseason was manager Craig Counsell’s departure. While this was expected, nobody expected the division rival Cubs to pay 40 million dollars for a manager. The Brewers lost in my opinion the best manager in the game to their own division rival. That flat out sucks. He will be replaced by Pat Murphy as the new manager and Rickie Weeks Jr. as the new “associate manager”. That aforementioned roster churn has already begun and will continue as the year goes on. All of it will be in an effort to get the Crews’ young players more opportunity to prove themselves. The Brewers have a surplus of talented young players already at the major league level or very close to it. So, that will give fans some hope for what is to come. However, the present just looks mediocre. This lineup is good and this team is going to score runs. Milwaukee will need solid production from youngsters like Mitchell, Chourio and Frelick if they want to be competitive in this division. It will be interesting to see if they can get a power source from Rhys Hoskins as he will make his return after not playing in 2023 due to injury. Also, can Gary Sanchez produce following a career resurrecting half season in San Diego ? Like I said, this lineup is good but it does have just a few to many question marks for my liking. The main reason why I think this team is going to be 12 wins worse this season is because of this rotation. Corbin Burnes, Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer are gone. Those three have consistently given Milwaukee a chance to win every 5th day in recent history. Freddy Peralta is still around and the Brewers will need him big time in his new found role as the ace. 37 year old Wade Miley was actually great last season but does have an injury right now. It should not hold him out long though and he will slot in behind Peralta. If you did not already know or maybe forgot, Brandon Woodruff was re-signed but he will be out the entire season. The rest of the rotation will be rounded out by Colin Rea, Jakob Junis, Joe Ross and DL Hall. Junis only started four out of his forty games for the Giants last year and the Brewers will hope he can make a strong reliever to starter jump. Joe Ross has not appeared in a major league game since 2021 and has not had legit success since 2016. Rea is mediocre and potentially a viable back end of the raotion arm. Here’s to hoping DL Hall can get a role in the bullpen because he was great in that role last season but terrible as a starter. This rotation is the reason why I believe a good team last year is going to quickly slip into mediocrity this year. The bullpen is going to be without its best arm and in fact the best player on the entire team, Devin WIlliams for a significant portion of the season. I can tell first hand as a Mets fan, losing your superstar closer makes your bullpen much worse. Everyone else has to move back an inning and it is tough to fill that void of a true closer. However, I have slight optimism for the Brewers because their pitching evaluation and development has been very good in recent history. Can they unlock something in some of these arms and get them to produce ? Only time will tell but for now I do not see much of a winning season in Milwaukee.

MVP: Christian Yelich

Sure, Yelich is not the player he once was in 2018 and 2019 but man is he still damn good. Last year Yelich slashed an impressive .278/.370/.447 paired with swiping 28 bags and an OPS+ at 124. All of these numbers are the highest they have been since his 2019 MVP runner-up campaign. His advanced metrics were also great. A 93rd percentile hard-hit % at 50.2% and on the other side of the ball +3 OAA in the outfield. Yelich is still a five tool player despite his numbers dipping since his peak years. He is most certainly still an elite player in my eyes, the face of this franchise and is primed for another great year in 2024. 

Cy Young: Freddy Peralta

This is an easy pick here because of Williams injury and the overall weakness of this staff heading into the year. I talked a whole lot about how the Brewers pitching may struggle this year but I have never been higher of Freddy Peralta than I am right now. This is his rotation now, no more Burnes or Woodruff (at least for now) he is the big game pitcher in Milwaukee. I believe Freddy will step into and excel in his new found ace role. He struck out 210 batters with his 33.6% whiff rate last year and I expect that number to climb again this year. His fastball is awesome, it has great ride and has some perceived velocity on it as well. Where Perlata can really make his money is in the offspeed department. If Peralata can get more success with his slider and changeup there is no telling what his numbers could look like. If he can be more effective with his offspeed pitches look out for Freddy Peralta to win the 2024 NL Cy Young. 

Breakout: Garrett Mitchell

It is time for the former first round pick to start producing in the show for the Crew. Mitchell suffered a bad shoulder injury last year. Like our April to September bad. So his season was completely gone. In only 73 PA he showed some pop blasting a trio of homers and spraying hits to all fields. Mitchell’s speed is flat out elite; it will help him to succeed in the outfield and on the basepaths. If he can cut down on strikeouts he will blossom into the ideal leadoff hitter for Pat Murphy. He is already 25 years old and with a surplus of youngsters coming through this system, it’s now or never for Mitchell in Milwaukee. 

ROTY: Jackson Chourio

This pick is just about as easy as it gets, Chourio is going to be a superstar. He has got it all, a true five tool player who put up video game numbers in the minors last year. He slashed .282/.338/.467 with 22 jacks and swiped 44 bags across two levels in 2023. The former shortstop has made the full time switch to outfield where he can put his 70 grade speed on display. The only thing you would like to see more of is his ability to take walks. As he gets older and develops into a more professional hitter I expect him to get on base more. Chourio is the projected opening day center fielder in Milwaukee at just 20 years old. I could rave about this kid all day. He is a generational talent and a superstar in the making for the Brewers. 

Sources:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

CBS Sports

Fangraphs

MLB Pipeline