By Matt Desena

Record: 90-72

Given the unreliability of the Yankees current starting rotation due to injuries and past performance, specifically Gerrit Cole, it isn’t that far out of the range of possibilities that a reliever can be the most important pitcher this season for the Yankees and I’m going with Clay Holmes. The bullpen has been the Yankees’ strength every year and Holmes has found success since coming over from Pittsburgh. Holmes’ hard sinker is one of the game’s best pitches when he commands it. The sinker comes in at 2139 RPM and holds the best ground ball rate in the league along with being among the best at forcing soft contact. Holmes serves as the Yankees’ most important reliever and often closes games but he serves to get the most important outs in the big moments. If Holmes can remain healthy, he is effective enough to be the most important pitcher this season.

ROTY: Clayton Beeter

Clayton Beeter was acquired in August of 2022 for Joey Gallo from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Beeter has remained in the middle of the Yankees top 30 prospects since he was acquired and is finally getting his shot in the big leagues this year. Beeter slots to be a lower leverage reliever this year for New York but his upside could propel him to a much higher leverage role. A fastball that can get up to 97 MPH causes his 78-82 MPH curveball, 84-86 MPH slider and mid 80s changeup to be effective. His repertoire as a 25 year old former starter matched with his speed differentials gives him the ability to be a reliable reliever by the year’s end.

Breakout: Anthony Volpe

Anthony Volpe’s rookie season saw a lot of ups and downs but overall was disappointing for the former top 10 prospect. Volpe possesses all the skills needed to be a star. He was in the 78th percentile for sprint speed, 82nd percentile for baserunning value and 61st percentile for hard-hit rate. All are respectable for a 22 year old rookie playing a premiere position in New York. Volpe had a high strikeout rate and we saw his patience at the plate decrease as the year went on. That being said, he had some hot stretches and ended his rookie year with a 20-20 season. He also took home the AL gold glove for shortstop. Volpe, with the potential to be a true 5 tool player, saw a power success with his uppercut swing, this also was the reason for his strikeouts. Over the off-season, Volpe has worked to create a more level swing that has allowed him to see success in spring training. Volpe may sacrifice some power to hit for more contact and average this season. This change should help his progression at such a young age. Valuing contact and average should be his first priority because he is too talented to not run into more power as he grows older and gets stronger. If Volpe can reach 20 home runs this season while maintaining a .250 batting average, this should get him to be an above average hitter and paired with his speed and glove gives me a reason to believe he can be not just the Yankees biggest breakout but also one of the league’s best.

Overall, the 2024 Yankees have the ability to either contend for a world series or miss the postseason again. I predict they will be somewhere in the middle with 90ish wins with the ability to win a high 90s amount of games. Their offense has the starpower and if they can get contributions from guys like Rizzo, Stanton and Volpe, the offense should be atop the league. If Gerrit Cole comes back healthy and performs like he can, the Yankees pennant hopes should be that much higher. The rotation is in shambles right now but there have been talks of potentially signing Jordan Montgomery and if Rodon and Cortes can play like they have before, the rotation could be dangerous come October.

By Joe Browne

Record: 75-87

The Cardinals were an absolute disaster last season. Not only did this team fall extremely short on expectations they were also dysfunctional. They sent down future star Jordan Walker when he was one of the best hitters on their team for no apparent reason at one point. Also, a former player was benched because he did not hustle around the bases and cost the team a run. They were a joke last year and did not live up to the gold standard that is Cardinal baseball. St. Louis has not had back to back losing seasons since 1958-1959. This year, that streak is going to be broken. The Cardinals are going to struggle even in a weaker division. Leave no doubt, this team is going to score runs. They have a good lineup that contains star players. Expect to be betting the over in the game run total when the Cardinals play in 2024. Why ? This club’s pitching is not good in the slightest. St. Louis’ rotation was bad last year and will be even worse this year. Sonny Gray was brought in to be the ace but he will miss the beginning of the season with a hamstring injury. Gray is good and will bring stability to this rotation every time out. Miles Mikolas took a big step back from an awesome 2022 last year but he still chucked 200 + innings. Mikolas is another guy that will bring stability to the rotation. The rest is total crapshoot. Lance Lynn at 36 years old has returned to St. Louis but do not expect much. He was batting practice in Chicago and L.A. last year. You know that uncle that you have that “would have gone pro” if he didn’t suffer that injury in high school. Yeah, he could have gotten a hit off Lance Lynn last year he was that bad. Veterans Kyle Gibson and Steven Matz round out the rotation. I am not high on either of these guys this year because I do not like their stuff. Gibson was bad with the Orioles last year and Matz was just ok in an injury shortened year in St. Louis. Alltoghter, this rotation is bad and  one of the worst in baseball. The Cardinals cannot expect legit production out of anyone except Gray and that is a recipe for disaster. Let’s circle back to that lineup I was talking about before. Goldschmidt, Arenado, Contreras, Gorman and Walker make up a strong core. Paired with solid lefty bats in Donovan and Nootbaar. Goldy definitely took a step back from his MVP campaign in 2022 last year and at 36 years old do not expect him to get back to that MVP level again. Arenado suffered a major down year last year posting a OPS+ at only 109. Nolan is still awesome, except for a bounce back in 2024. Former top prospect Nolan Gorman was awesome last year he quietly smacked 27 homers. 21 year old Jordan Walker had himself a nice rookie campaign last year. Hopefully, he takes a nice second year leap and continues his development. Overall, this lineup is definitely good. With an Arenado bounce back season and the rest of the group continuing to hit well, the Cardinals will put runs on the board in 2024. There is another reason why I am low on this team’s success besides their pitching. It is their manager, Oliver Marmol. I think that he is bad at his job and that he does not have a good grip on that clubhouse. The year after Yadi Molina retired the team completely fell apart. That is not a coincidence. Also, Marmol just got himself an in my opinion unearned contract extension. Meaning he is going to stick around. He is definitely holding this group back and is one of the worst managers in the game. Lastly, the bullpen is not great. Ryan Helsley is the headliner because he is an elite closer. The only question for Helsley is how many times will he actually have a chance to close out a game for the Cardinals ? Gallegos, Kittredge and Pallante round out an overall mediocre group. The Cardinals should be better this year because they have a new ace and hopefully less dysfunction. However, their staff just will not cut it. Remember that streak of not having back to back losing seasons I talked about before ? That ends this year, the Cardinals are headed toward another year of losing in 2024.

MVP: Nolan Arenado

I am putting all my chips on the table for the Arenado bounce back in 2024. Last year, his batted ball metrics were down. If Nolan can get back to barrelling up the baseball more consistently his numbers will shoot back up. I’m sure Arenado has been working all off season to get back to his normal self. His defense also took a step back last year but is still elite. Nolan’s defense has been his defining quality his entire career. It is uber valuable and he can definitely still pick it at the hot corner. Arenado has been around for what feels like forever but he is still only 32 years old. I’m excited to watch a bg bounce back from Nado in 2024.

Cy Young: Sonny Gray

While Gray will miss his first few starts this season I fully expect him to be dominant when he gets healthy. He is coming off an awesome year with the Twins where he posted a career best ERA+ at 154. His metrics were also great. Elite run value at +36 and his pitch arsenal is lethal. While his average fastball velo is only 92.9 MPH, Gray still has an elite run value at +17. Also, his sweeper and curveball are also great with a breaking ball run value at +23. He can bust his sweeper indoor to righties and get them to roll over or whiff. Gray won’t make 32 starts again in 2024 but he should be great again when he takes the mound at Busch. 

Breakout: Jordan Walker

This one is very chalk. Walker is a former top prospect who put together a solid rookie year and now looks toward a potential second year jump. Expect the home run numbers to make a jump this year compared to last. While 16 is solid Walker has 25 bomb potential and I expect him to get close to that number this year. His defense in the outfield was brutal last year but that can be expected from someone who did not have a ton of experience there. Arenado blocked him at third and his 6’6 frame got stuck in a corner. If Walker can cut down on his strikeouts a bit it would make him even more of a big league hitter than he already is. Walker is primed to breakout this season and live up to his top prospect potential.

ROTY: Masyn Winn

Winn will take the field on Thursday as the Cardinals Opening Day shortstop. At just 22 years old the keys will be handed to Winn in 2024. He had a significant stint with the big league club last year but just held onto his rookie status for 2024. So, why Winn ? He is a good hitter who plays solid defense with a rocket (literally) arm. Winn hit for a high average in the minors but stuck out a whole lot. That is the main concern with the strikeout rate. Big league pitching is much better than on the farm. Winn will have to find a way to strike out less to succeed at this level. His speed is great, swiping 43 bags in 2022 in the minors. The Cardinals could use that speed on the basepaths. He struggled in the big leagues in 122 AB’s last year but with a full offseason under his belt as a big leaguer I believe in Winn and his potential. He has a long way to go before living up to his true potential but a solid rookie year as I predict will help him on that path. 

References:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

CBS Sports

Fangraphs

By Jonah Drew

Record: 61-101

In a shocking development, I do not expect the Oakland Athletics to be the very worst team in these predictions at least. The Athletics have been the laughing stock of MLB for a long time now and rightfully so. Owner John Fisher is bar none the worst owner in pro sports, let alone MLB. He is not only astronomically cheap, but he is also widely known as a bad guy. In typical John Fisher fashion, he is selfishly abandoning a passionate baseball fan base, moving the team to Las Vegas in the near future. With that out of the way, lets get into this slightly, emphasis on the slightly, bad team. This team won just a measly 50 games last season, finishing as one of the worst teams in the history of the sport. I want to shine a light on the insult to baseball, better known as the 2023 A’s Pitching Staff. Paul Blackburn was actually fine, posting a sub 4 FIP in 103.2 Innings. throw JP Sears in with Blackburn, Sears made all 32 potential starts, tallying 172 Innings with a 4.54 ERA. The next highest ERA+ in this Rotation last year, 76 by way of Ken Waldichuk. No, names like Alex Wood and Ross Stripling are not sexy, in fact they are anything but. However I expect the Athletics to greatly benefit from not having scheduled losses in their rotation, Wood and Stripling are certainly not great, but at least you have a chance to win on the bump. Joe Boyle is so fun, the stuff is absolutely violent but more often than not, he does not have a clue where it is going. This bullpen is going to be bad, no doubt. As bad as I expect it to be, it will be improved because of one man, Mason Miller. Mason Miller is technically still a prospect and despite innings being scarce to say the least, the potential is off the charts. He is being sent to the bullpen in an effort to help him stay healthy, if his already second to none stuff can tick up, all I can say is watch out. The lineup is very similar to the rotation in that it will benefit from simply having some replacement level players rather than auto outs. There is also some young talent to get excited about. Esteury Ruiz is fun, and a lock to steal 50, doing that with an OBP barely above .300 is downright impressive. Brent Rooker came out of the blue to hit 30 Homeruns, and Shea Langeliers has the ability to give you 25+ bombs behind the plate. Both of these players do have fatal flaws but its fun, and thats all you can ask for with a team in a situation like the A’s. Two players that I really love are Zack Gelof and Ryan Noda. There is a chance Zack Gelof is a legit young star, he came up in a horrible situation as a 23 year old and hit 14 HRs in just 300 PAs in the ultimate pitchers park, making for a 137 OPS+. Ryan Noda is what Nolan Schanuel wishes he was, the former Rule 5 pick is extremely patient and will do anything to walk, even if it means striking out well over 30% of the time. I hope and expect Darnell Hernaiz to be the shortstop on thurday, he is a much better hitter than Nick Allen is and provides equal value with the glove. Tyler Soderstrom has kind of struggled in the last calendar year but that dude rakes and I expect him to show it in Oakland this upcoming year. Look, I get it, its hard to spin the Oakland A’s into a positive as they are currently constructed but there are definitely some positives to take away from this roster. I expect this to be one of the more fun 100 loss seasons from any team in recent memory, at least Oakland fans should get to enjoy a watchable product in their dwindling years.

MVP: Zack Gelof

I truly do believe that if Zack Gelof played for the New York Yankees or the Los Angeles Dodgers the hype would be through the roof and the media would have everyone sold on the Zack Gelof train. This is definitely not the case, playing for the Oakland A’s has the casual baseball fan unfamiliar with Zack Gelof’s existence, and that is a shame. Is Gelof a damn near 140 OPS+ bat like he showed in 69 games last year, maybe, but I would lean no. Now is Gelof a 120 OPS+ bat, now that is something I can fully buy. Gelof’s sweet spot rate of 38.6% shows that he knows how to optimize his angles, an absolute necessity if you want to have an ounce of success in Oakland Coliseum. Gelof is far from a bat only guy though, in fact he is actually a comfortably plus defender and runner. Gelof posted a FRV in the 65th percentile and an OAA in the 81st percentile. Gelof can absolutely fly, posting a sprint speed in the 91st percentile as well as 14 stolen bases in under half of a big league season. Putting up 2.6 bWAR in 69 Games as a rookie no less is beyond impressive and there is no reason he can be in 4-5 win range in 2024.

Cy Young: Joe Boyle

How do I put into words how eratic yet how nasty Joe Boyle is. I’ll put it like this, imagine a righty Blake Snell with his strikeout stuff and control issues, then times both of them by 10, and then you would almost have Joe Boyle. Boyle is a 6’7 monster with some absolutely violent stuff. He threw just 16 big league innings in 2023 but was absolutely dominant, going sub 2. Boyle’s fastball might just be an 70+ grade heater, the pitch sits 98 with some ride, the craziest part about the velocity, his extension makes the ball look like it is coming in at a comical speed. He is mainly a Fastball/Slider pitcher with the latter having a .129 xBAA and 33% whiff rate.If I have not made it clear yet, Joe Boyle has the stuff to be a big league ace, no exaggeration. All of this sounds great, and it is but 7.2 BB/9 in the minor leagues makes for some insane boom or bust potential. The range of outcomes for Boyle is as big as anybody but I am buying the immense upside.

Breakout: Shea Langeliers

Langeliers was a comfortably consensus Top 100 prospect among baseball minds but his 2023 season did not go as I am sure he would have hoped. The fact that he was traded for Matt Olson also unnecessarily heightens his expectations, which simply is not fair to Langeliers. Playing the Catcher position means that your first priority is playing quality defense, and I am honestly not quite sure if he did. Lets start with the good, Shea did a great job shutting down the running game, posting a CS above average of 6, good for the 98th percentile helped by an 86th percentile pop time. On the other hand, he was frankly horrible at everything else, defensive wise, including being the worst blocker in baseball and and just an 8th percentile framer. Langeliers also hits the crap out of the ball. This is represented by the fact that his barrel rate(13.3%) is in the 88th percentile and his average exit velocity(90.6) is in the 73rd percentile. I understand there are some clear holes in his game but he is on a short list of catchers that are capable of hitting 25+ bombs in that park.

ROTY: Mason Miller

Mason Miller has one of the wilder baseball plots I have ever heard. His stuff was pretty average at Gardner-Webb University and fast forward to 2024, he has one of the more diabolical arsenals out there. For whatever reason Miller has been incapable of staying on the mound. In 3 minor league seasons, Miller barely threw 30 innings but that was all the A’s needed to see. They called him up to the big club in 2023 and he did not let them down, who could forget the Bryce Miller vs Mason Miller pitching duel, a battle of outlier fastballs. As is a common theme with his career, Miller only threw 33 Innings in 2023 due to a Shoulder injury. The Athletics made the tough decision to send Miller to the bullpen in what I would assume is a closer role. Miller’s fastball already sat 98 when he was forced to go multiple innings as a starter, I do not want to imagine what his stuff will look like in one inning spurts.

Sources:

Athletics Nation

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

MLB film room