By Joe Browne

Record: 79-83

It is now clear that brighter days in the Steel City are close. The Pirates have been in a rebuilding state since the mid 2010’s. They have always had good players and have never been truly abysmal but rather just bad teams overall. Last year, they won some ball games at the beginning of the season. Pittsburgh was 19-9 last April and started the year 20-9 before falling off the rest of the season. This team has some legit players and more guys who I like coming up the pipeline. They stayed out of the NL Central basement last year and I am optimistic that they can do that again this season. This lineup is solid, not a whole lot of position player depth but has a solid starting 9. Oneil Cruz is back, he suffered a brutal leg injury on a slide into home plate in the first week of the season last year. He possesses great tools with power and speed and the sky’s the limit for how good he could potentially be. Not to mention, he has hit the cover off the ball this spring. He smacked 7 homers with an OPS north of 1.000. If he can continue this production into the season it will be a major boost for the Buccos. Outside of Cruz, there are good hitters up and down this lineup in Reynolds, Hayes, Suwinski and McCutchen. They’ll also hope for a bounce back from Rowdy Tellez. Finally, Henry Davis wasn’t great last year but like Cruz has hit the cover off the ball. Let’s move to the pitching now. The rotation is just okay. 2023 All-Star Mitch Keller is the headliner of this rotation behind back to back solid seasons. Notables behind Keller are Perez and Jones. Perez is coming off a pair of solid seasons in Texas where he won a World Series last year. Him along with Bailey Falter and Marco Gonzales will eat innings all year for the Pirates. Did I forget to mention that guy the Pirates took first overall last June ? I think I did. That guy has a name, Paul Skenes. Skenes had arguably the most dominant run in college baseball history last year. We will see Paul in the bigs at some point this year. The only question is, when ? Moving on to the bullpen, I am absolutely in love with this group. David Bednar will be locking down the ninth inning once again this year. Bednar has been an all star in each of the last two years and posted a mind boggling 222 ERA+ last year. Expect him to continue his dominance again this year. Bonus points for the sick bullpen entrance from Bednar, man they try so hard to be like Edwin Diaz. The rest of the group is overall great. Aroldis Chapman signed a one year deal this offseason coming off a great year in Kansas City and Texas. Chapman will be joined in the back end by underrated arms in Ryan Borucki and Colin Holderman. Holderman will miss the beginning of the season with illness but it won’t hold him out long. He and Borukci both have great stuff and it makes me ask, why? Why did Billy Eppler have to trade Holderman for Daniel Vogelbach. The NL Central is a weak division and the Pirates have an opportunity to take advantage of that. This team is not bad in any stretch of the imagination. A solid group of hitters, a top tier bullpen and a rotation that will add Paul Skenes mid year. I like the Pirates to turn some heads again this year and show that they are a few moves away from competing for this division in 2025.

MVP: Bryan Reynolds

You might question this pick because Reynolds has seen his OPS number drop every year since 2021. However, Reynolds has posted higher average exit velocities every year since then. This is good paired with his solid expected metrics last year. Meaning, I expect him to get back into that elite outfielder conversion at season’s end. Due to the Pirates not being a great team the last few years his production has gone completely under the radar. 24, 27 and 24 homeruns in 2021, 2022 and 2023 respectively. Those are obviously good numbers but more important, consistent. Reynolds is now under contract long term he will show up every day for this team. Look for him to lead the charge for this resurgent Buccos squad. 

Cy Young: David Bednar

You have to be a really good reliever to be the best pitcher on your team. Bednar is just that for the Pirates. Bednar has flat out nasty stuff, he posted great chase, whiff and K rates last year. He throws a good hard fastball a whole lot and mixes in a hook and split finger to go with it. His fastball was his best pitch last year, with a run value at +12. Bednar has become a household name as one of the best closers in the game His ability to limit hard contact and generate whiffs is elite and he will be locking down wins for the Pirates all year long.

Breakout: Henry Davis

Some Pirates fans are optimistic that this team could overachieve and grab a wild card spot. If that possible yet in my opinion unlikely scenario is going to come true, Henry Davis is a huge key. The former first overall pick got 255 PA’s in 2023 probably a little more than expected. Now he enters into his first full season as Pittsburgh’s catcher. Also, fellow young backstop Endy Rodriguez will miss the entire season with injury. It’s Davis’ time to shine. Davis provides great power potential with his abt. With a full season’s workload, expect at least 20 raises of the Jolly Roger for Davis this year. His defense needs work but Davis has a rocket arm from behind the plate. You can’t teach that and his arm will help himself hopefully develop into an elite catcher. With the injury to Rodriguez, Davis will be able to catch 120 games this year. I believe that he will come through and live up to his first overall pick promise. 

ROTY: Jared Jones

If you haven’t heard of Jared Jones yet, get familiar. A sparkling 0.00 ERA in 16.1 innings this spring should be taken with a grain of salt, but not overlooked. The former two way player from LSU pitched well enough to earn himself an opening day rotation spot this spring. Jones possesses a 65 grade fastball that filtered with triple digits in the minors last year. It is an electric pitch. Jones needs to develop his secondary pitches more to develop a true arsenal. If he can do that, look out, because Jones could join Paul Skenes at the top of this rotation in Pittsburgh for the foreseeable future. 

References:

Baseball Refernece

Baseball Savant

CBS Sports

Fangraphs

MLB Pipeline

By Jonah Drew

Record: 88-74

The streak of the Mariners missing the playoffs was well documented, and thankfully for this starved fanbase, the curse was broken in the 2022 by an unforgettable Cal Raleigh home run off of Domingo ACEVADO!. This magical season was sadly ended by the Astros in the ALDS after a 2-0 sweep over the Toronto Blue Jays. The 2023 season was not as successful as the 2022 season but to say it was a bad season would be a stretch. They met their realistic expectations before the season, winning 88 games and missing the playoffs by a singular game. Expectations going into last year are pretty much the same for this team, and I do expect that they slightly over achieve them. I have some real questions regarding this lineup. Of course I love Julio Rodriguez, the man was one of the best players in baseball period in the 2nd half and is a legit 40/40 candidate with a great glove in center. Although I believe JP Crawford peaked last season with a 131 OPS+, I think it is fair to expect a 115-120 OPS+, pair that with a fantastic glove. Cal Raleigh is a very underrated slugger, hitting 57 bombs over the last 2 years to pair with tremendous defense behind the plate. They made 3 main acqusitions and frankly, I really liked all 3 of them. Mitch Garver adds some much needed thump to a lineup that was really lacking impact. Jorge Polanco can hit 25 homers while being a .250 hitter, from a non premium position this great value. They also got him for a headliner of a prospect that I believe to be very overrated in Gabriel Gonzalez. The Luke Raley for Jose Cabellaro swap was very interesting but I really like it. Although he has a very real strikeout issue, 15 Homers and 15 bags is nothing to scoff at. All 3 of these moves were more than necessary, they take this lineup from honestly bottom 7 to around the middle of the pack. My questions come at the bottom 4 of this lineup. The 4 players being, Mitch Haniger, Dom Canzone, Ty France, and Josh Rojas. I am rooting for the Haniger bounce back just like you but analytically speaking, I just simply do not see the vision. Dom Canzone was solid last season but realistically I do not see him going over a .700 OPS and if he does it will not be much higher. Ty France put up a .703 OPS last season, from a premium offensive position, that simply will not cut it. Josh Rojas, again, as much as I love him, I am not sold on the idea that he is even much more than a replacement level player at this point. Now to the fun part, the pitching staff. This is in my opinion, the best rotation in baseball. This phenomenal rotation is headlined by at this point, bonafide ace and Cy Young contender, Luis Castillo who has been nothing but fabulous since going to the west coast. In the words of Foolish Bailey, George Kirby does not like to throw balls, posting under 1 Walk per 9 innings and a low 3s era. Logan Gilbert is at this point, bordering on an overqualified 3 and just a luxury to have in the back of a playoff rotation. I sure am a sucker for a high carry fastball and boy do both Bryce Miller ans Bryan Woo have it. These are 2 eerily similar pitchers with high carry fastballs, going into their second years, I like Woo slightly more just due to the fact that his secondary offerings are slightly better then Miller’s. These are 2 great young arms that Seattle is lucky to have in the back of their rotation. The Mariners have seemingly joined the Dodgers, Rays, and Brewers in their respective bullpen sorcery but sadly for them they will start the season without stud set-up man, Matt Brash to start the season at least. Andres Munoz throws absolute flames, sitting near triple digits, helping him post a 2.94 ERA and a 2.70 FIP. I also was a big fan of Ryne Stanek,he was nearly sub 1 in 2022 but suffered some regression to the mean in 2023, posting an ERA above 4. I expect him to meet both of these in the middle and record an ERA slightly below 3. Full transparency, I was debating this team vs their divisional foe, the Texas Rangers and I decided I like Seattle better, I will of course go more in depth on my Rangers predictions article but I will say that contrary to popular belief, I would actually take an elite pitching staff and a middling lineup over a middling staff and an elite lineup.

MVP: Julio Rodriguez

The Jrod show was a revelation for the Mariners in his rookie year in 2022. Jrod was a 6 win player in just 132 games as a rookie, enough to win him Rookie of the Year in the American League. In his “sophomore slump” he put up a 128 OPS+ with 32 Homeruns and 37 Stolen Bases. If that is your sophomore slump, I can not even imagine what your best years look like. Rodriguez was absolutely elite in the second half, posting a .941 OPS and 19 Homeruns. Rodriguez is fantastic in all facets of the game, to go along with his slugging prowess, he is a 91st percentile fielder, run value wise, and a 96th percentile runner. Rodriguez hits the absolute piss out of the baseball, posting an average exit velocity of 92.7 and 52% hard hit rate, both in the top 5% in all of baseball. What Rodriguez did in the second half, I expect to see that over a 162 game span. That would put him firmly in AL MVP talks.

Cy Young: Luis Castillo

I am sure that George Kirby will be a popular selection for this spot and while I do get it, I do think he is in the strike zone to much to the point where it is just natural that he will get hit hard with decent frequency. In my opinion, this caps his ceiling at basically what he did this past year. Castillo however, if everything clicks he could legit win the American League Cy Young award. Here is why am so enthralled with Castillo’s ability. Castillo sits 96 with his Four seamer and it is dominant at the top of the zone, due to some good ride from a very low release height, helping him generate a whiff on 1/3 of his swings. This pitch also had a very high average launch angle of 31 degrees, meaning the pitch generated a lot of weak pop ups. His slider was also fantastic, posting an xBAA of .210 and a near 38% whiff rate. A K-BB of 20.3 also goes to show his sheer dominance of the zone in 2023. Castillo also made 33 Starts, the best in baseball at that mark. Castillo is a reliable workhorse who misses bats extremely well, there is certainly a world where he backs into a sub 3 ERA in 200 Innings.

Breakout: Bryan Woo

No I do not live under a rock, I have seen the Bryan Woo elbow inflammation news. This is extremely scary as there are plenty of instances where this originally expected short absence turns into a late season return or worse but there are more times that they miss the announced time, ramp back up and only end up missing about a month of the season. I am going to go out on a limb and bank on Woo not having any setbacks and coming back in May. I am extremely excited for when Woo comes back because I expect it to be an absolute coming out party. As I said Woo has great fastball shape as well as decent secondaries. His normal slider was just fine but his sweeper got absolutely crushed and I expect him to cut down on that pitch. Woo got extremely unlucky with batted ball data last season, his 3.48 xERA is a significant jump from his 4.21 ERA in his rookie season. Woo did a great job at limiting hard contact this past season, with a hard hit rate in the 83rd percentile and an average exit velocity of 87.4, good for 82nd percentile. Combine this soft contact with a well above average K% in 25.1% and you get one of the better young pitchers in baseball, assuming health.

ROTY: Emerson Hancock

The former Georgia Bulldog was taken 6th overall in the shortened 2020 covid draft by Seattle. No, he has not lived up to the typical 6th overall expectations, but his safety was a calling card during the draft process and that safety has reared its head. Hancock has more than likely done enough to be the 5 on opening day with the inflammation in the the elbow of Bryan Woo. Hancock is not going to come up and light the world on fire but I do expect him to at least give the Mariners some quality innings. Hancock was tremendous in the lower levels in 2021, posting a 2.62 ERA across 44 IP in A and A+. Since then he has been nothing more than fine, usually sitting around the high 3s at every stop. The nature of pitching in the year 2024 is that you simply will not have all 5 of your ideal rotation healthy throughout the season, so even though Hancock is the org’s 6th starter, he will likely be in the rotation consistently.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

MLB Pipeline

By Joe Browne

Record: 87-75

Let’s start here, this team will win the NL Central in 2024. The Cubs turned a lot of heads last year and had a fun summer in Wrigleyville. Just two years removed from when they started what looked to be a rebuild, they were in playoff contention. They ultimately fell short due to some choking at the end of September. While last year’s finish certainly does still sting, it is time to move onto a new season for the Cubs. This team was fun last year and I expect them to be that way again this year. Even though that is a tough thing to predict. The story of the offseason was the new skipper, Craig Counsell. I gave the Brewers a big drop in my article on them partly because they lost Counsell. That is how valuable he is because he is the best manager in the game. His in game decisions are sharp and his leadership is great. That’s a huge plus for this group and I expect him to carry over his success from Milwaukee. Overall, the team defense is great. The best up in the middle pair defensively in the game with Swanson and Hoerner. On top of great outfield defense from Tauchman and Suzuki. The projected lineup contains all returners except former Dodgers top prospect Michael Busch (more on him later). How about Cody Bellinger last year, who saw that coming ? Belli finished 10th in MVP voting a year ago and earned himself a fresh 80 million dollar deal with Chicago. However, he is due for regression this year in my opinion. His batted ball data was bad last year which implies he got lucky. It’s tough to repeat luck in baseball, so if Bellinger does not hit the ball harder this year his numbers are going to go down. Corner outfielders Ian Happ and Seyia Suzuki were both great last year and expect them to continue their success this year. Ultitley man Chistopher Morel was also solid last year and had some crazy clutch moments in the midst of the Cubs hot streak last summer. Swanson and Hoerner are both about average hitters but as I previously mentioned will play elite defense up the middle. All and all, this lineup has the perfect combination of dangerous hitters paired with defense. On the pitching side of things, the Cubs also look solid. Justin Steele messed around and nearly won a Cy Young last year. It was an incredible breakout and he is now the ace of this staff. Kyle Hendricks is somehow still around and he saw sustained success last year for the first time since 2019. Jameson Taillon will start the year on the IL with back issues but should slot into the three spot in this rotation upon his return. Then there are the three guys with little experience in Assad, Wicks and Imanaga. Assad and Wicks both have solid potential and can hopefully develop into something. Imanaga is the X factor for the Cubs, if he can pitch the way he should in his first year stateside, this team should win this division. The rest of the pieces will fall into place around him. The bullpen is very good in my opinion. Alzolay was awesome last year. He will bring electric stuff in the ninth. Hector Neris, a rare example of a consistent year to year reliever will set him up. Guys like Merryweather and Almonte both have good stuff and will provide production to this group. This team is fun and ready to win. With Counsell now at the helm the Cubbies should be able to live up to the expectations and win their division. They are the best team in this division. I have no doubt about that. Will we see playoff baseball with fans at Wrigley for the first time since 2018 in 2024 ? If I was a betting man I would certainly say so.

MVP: Seiya Suzuki

You might think this pick is a little aggressive but if you dig deeper it’s clear it’s not. Suzuki was amazing last year and the metrics suggest he had an even better season then the numbers will tell you. He hit for average last year and smacked 20 homers. A good balance that should improve this year. A Hard-Hit% at 48% is impressive and Suzuki rarely chases. He is a disciplined hitter who packs a punch. Seiya also has good enough speed to help himself pick up extra bases commonly. If he can cut down on the strikeouts just a little and tap into more power, Suzuki has the potential to become a household name in MLB.

Cy Young: Justin Steele

Steele was one of the biggest surprises of the season last year. He finished 5th in NL Cy Young voting last year. He rode his fastball all year long to that honor. An elite run value +16 on his heater. Steele generates soft contact and pounds the zone. Pounding the zone limits his pitch count which lets him be more effective. He won’t strike out 10 hitters a night ; but his slider is a legit “out” pitch. Expect Steele to have another great year in 2024 at the forefront of the Cubs rotation. 

Breakout: Micheal Busch

Mind you that Busch is a rookie but he is still my pick here because he did get 81 AB’s with the Dodgers last year. The Cubs acquired Busch from L.A. in January to give them some versatility at DH or in the infield. Busch was insane in AAA last year and he forced the Dodgers to call him up. Slashing .323/.431/.618 with 27 homer’s driving in 90 runs. Those are video game numbers. Now, he is definitely not posting those numbers in the bigs this year but Busch will still produce. He has a ton of power and if he can get some baseballs up into that Wrigley wind, expect 20 homers in his rookie year. He will slot in toward the middle of the Cubs order this season with a chance to drive in some runners. Remember the name Micheal Busch, because he is about to be a dark horse NL rookie of the year candidate. 

ROTY: Shota Imanaga

I talked about how Imanaga will be the Cubs X-Factor this year and I believe he will come through. The 30 year old will come over from Japan and join the Cubs rotation in 2024. He does not bring a ton of velocity from the left side but has good stuff. His splitter grades out to be his best pitch and I’m sure it will be generating whiffs all season long. That splitter will also generate ground balls and with the Cubs elite infield defense that will help him get outs. He has good control and limited his walks in Japan. Spring Training doesn’t count but Imanaga struckout 25 in 12.2 innings in the Cactus League. That is impressive and a testimony to the stuff he brings to the table. The Japanese southpaw will see success in 2024 and help his team get back into the postseason.

References:

Baseball Refernece

Baseball Savant

CBS Sports

Fangraphs

Statmuse