Yes, you are correct, I do not have the defending World Series Champions making the playoffs. I know it may sound crazy but at the end of the day we are talking about baseball here, in other words, expect the unexpected. At least give me a chance to explain my admittedly brash take. The lineup however, is not where I will stake my claim, that group is as elite as advertised. The middle infield duo signed prior to the 2022 season for over half a billion combined has been a booming success. Marcus Semien has been Mr. Consistent, playing all 162, posting a 122 OPS+ with 29 HRS and 40 doubles. Corey Seager was an MVP caliber player last season and the fact that he was even considered while just playing 119 Games shows just how how elite he was on a rate basis. Seager posted a .327/.390/.623 triple slash with 33 homers, I would be lying if I said I was not concerned about Seager’s health, he has only played 150 games twice since he debuted in 2015, coming off a hernia surgery, I am nervous. Texas has two rookie phenoms, both outfielders, Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford. Evan Carter was a catalyst for a world series winning lineup in 2023, even being slotted as the 3 hitter in crucial playoff games. This was for good reason considering he posted a 182 OPS+ as a 20 year old down the stretch. Wyatt Langford is a freak, Langford somehow fell to 4th overall and boy will the Tigers regret that. Langford posted a minor league OPS north of 1.000 and was just absurd for a runner up Florida Gators team. Langford has broken camp after just half a MiLB season, he his legit capable of hitting 30 Bombs while having an OBP above .350. Langford can absolutely fly but for whatever reason it has not translated to gaudy stolen base numbers or plus outfield defense. The fact that guys like Josh Jung, Adolis Garcia, and Nathaniel Lowe are just complementary pieces is goes to show the Rangers embarrassment of riches. All 3 of these guys are terrific hitters that are capable of posting a WRC+ north of 130. Jonah Heim is a great defensive catcher with the ability to get hot for a month at a time, but even if he is not hitting, his defense provides plenty of value to warrant him playing everyday. Even bench players like Ezequiel Duran and Travis Jankowski of being everyday guys on less potent lineups. I have major concerns about this pitching staff though. The Rangers paid Jacob DeGrom 185 Million across 5 seasons, and after just 6 six starts he was sidelined with an arm injury and not long after that it was announced that DeGrom needed Tommy John. Maybe this will be proceeded by a clean bill of health but as a Mets fan I do not trust DeGrom to come back for any significant period of time this season. They also traded for Max Scherzer at the deadline who was injured for their playoff run and will start the year on the I.L. after having back surgery. They also signed Tyler Mahle to a 2 year deal and he will miss the first half this year in Tommy John recovery. What is left of this staff has me questioning if they can even live to see October baseball. Current ace Nathan Eovaldi can look like Pedro Martinez for a month but then look like batting practice the next. Eovaldi’s hot and cold streaks almost always even out in the end, resulting in a solid season. Jon Gray is a much needed rock, but he is far under qualified to be a 2 on a team with playoff expectations. Andrew Heaney revitalized his career in Dodger blue and earned himself a 2 year 25 Million dollar deal. Heaney did what was needed of him in 2023, posting a 4.12 ERA in just under 150 IP. He is being asked to be a 3 in 2023 which he is simply not capable of. Dane Dunning and Cody Bradford are swingmen by nature and I simply do not expect them to be competent starters on a team with this magnitude of expectations. This bullpen has potential to be well below average in 2024. Jose Leclerc is the one of just two arms that I truly trust in this pen. Leclerc was just under 2.7 with peripherals that point to him being in the 3.1 range, he has also shown the ability to pitch in big games coming up huge in countless post season situations. I did not like the David Robertson signing, I am frankly not sure how much he has left, he was almost unusable in the second half with Miami. The other arm that I trust is Josh Sborz, the man who finished game 5. Although Sborz regular season baseline numbers are ugly, his FIP of 3.75 and his xERA of 3.35 tell us that he is set up man quality. I do not trust any of the middle relief arms, whether it is Yerry Rodriguez, Kirby Yates, Jacob Latz, or Brock Burke. As I stated in my Seattle Mariners article, I value great pitching over great hitting in regards to regular season and I could see this staff being among the worst in baseball.
MVP: Corey Seager
Corey Seager’s Baseball Savant page is utterly ridiculous, everything regarding the bat tells you his stick was one of, if not the best in baseball. Corey Seager is in the Top 5 percent of the following metrics-xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Avg Exit Velocity, and Hard Hit Rate. In english, Corey Seagers hit the ball very hard very often. Not too mention his 16.4% K rate, his 15.2% Barrel rate, and his 38.0% sweet spot rate. All good enough for at least the 84th percentile. Corey Seager does literally every thing well in the box, to a good approach to hitting absolute ropes at optimal launch angles. Despite his 23rd percentile sprint speed, Seager still plays a more than passable Shortstop, with his range being his best defensive attribute oddly enough. If Seager had not missed any time, he may have given Shohei Ohtani a real run for his money.
Cy Young: Nathan Eovaldi
Eovaldi has not posted an ERA above 4 since the juiced ball season in 2019. A common denominator with all of these seasons has been his ability to limit free passes, until last year. His BB rates have been below 4.6% in 2020,2021, and 2022. His walk rate was almost double this number, going up to 8.1%, not horrible but not up to his typical standard. Nathan Eovaldi was arguably the best pitcher in the American League in the first half of 2023. On the contrary, Eovaldi was glorified batting practice for much of the 2nd half but he found it for the postseason. Eovaldi came up absolutely huge in his Wild Card start in Game 2 in St. Pete, pitching 6.2 Innings of 1 run ball. Eovaldo also pitched a gem vs Baltimore in game 3, striking out 7 across 7 innings and only allowing 1 run. Eovaldi has always had a knack for pitching in big games going back to his WS run for Boston. Eovaldi’s competition for this honor is hardly fierce but you have to respect Nate nonetheless.
Breakout: Ezequiel Duran
I would like to say Brian Cashman made a big mistake letting this guy out of the Yankees organization, especially when you consider the return. The return was the notorious Joey Gallo, a man who hit below .160 over a full season sample size before being sent to Los Angeles. Duran will be in the Opening Day lineup due to an Oblique injury, an injury known to be lingering. Duran can play almost anywhere on the diamond, and if you have an ounce of ball knowledge you know the nature of the beast. Injuries are always going to happen and even tho Duran does not have a concrete spot, he is more than likely going to be playing everyday, even if it is not going to be the same spot every single day. Duran was an above average hitter posting a 106 OPS+ in 2023 but people forget how young this guy is, he is 24. Duran clearly has more juice in the tank, he hit a ball 115.2 MPH. Duran is also a top of the line athlete, he has a 99th percentile arm and 91st percentile sprint speed. Duran has the potential to be a 3+ win player if he can just improve his approach, which typically comes with time and experience.
ROTY: Wyatt Langford
The last time Wyatt Langford had an OPS below the 1.000 mark, the 2021 summer Valley League where he played for Charlottesville. Take a guess what his OPS was, .987 in 34 Games, just comical, comical stuff. He had a 1.166 his sophomore year and a 1.286 OPS his Junior year for the Gators. He then put up an OPS above 1.000 at 4 separate minor league stops. You simply never see transitions that smooth, no exaggeration, its an unforeseen thing. Langford hit 47 bombs in 134 Collegiate Games for Florida, if you somehow don’t know MLB seasons are 162 Games long. No I do not expect to go out and hit 50 or even 40 home runs but I do expect that number to be in the 30s, as a rookie that is extremely impressive. Langford has average bat to ball and even if he struggles he is always going to walk enough to muster a solid on base. I hope that as he matures, his athleticism translate to bags and especially improved defense. Langford has an unrivaled track record of success and that road does not end here.
Sources
Baseball Reference
Baseball Savant
Fangraphs
Just Baseball
Spotrac
Statmuse
Team Predictions: Tampa Bay Rays
By Jonah Drew
Record: 89-73
If this roster was that of the Los Angeles Angels or the Colorado Rockies, I would likely not have them winning 89 ballgames, however this is the Tampa Bay Rays, and this is just what they do. Call it lazy, call it naive, but I will leave the doubting the best baseball minds in the world, to you. The sky fell for Tampa last year, from injuries all the way to Wander Franco. If this sounds crazy, its because it is, the I.L. rotation would be a top 5 rotation in baseball, a 5 of Mclanahan, Springs, Rasmussen, Bradley, and the mythical Shane Baz. If I told you these guys all missed a majority of the season and Wander Franco was abolished from baseball mid season, how many games would you have thought they won, if you said anything less than 99 games, you would be wrong. Year after year people think that the Rays “Devil Magic” would come to an end, year after year this crowd is wrong. Why is this, it is because it is not devil magic, it is because the Rays are simply smarter than you and all of the other 29 MLB organizations alike. I actually do think this lineup looks very good on paper. Yandy Diaz is one of the best hitters in baseball, Diaz posted a .410 OBP and a 158 OPS+. His 22 Homeruns were also very easily a career high with the next closest being 14 in 2019, a season that he only played 79 Games, odd. Brandon Lowe has struggled to stay on the field in recent years, but do not forget who this guy is, a career 126 OPS+ bat with 40 Homers in the tank. Big game Randy has been a star since he bursted onto the scene in the covid playoff, I think there is a chance he catapults into a full time super star. Although there are some very real quality of contact concerns, the stats are what they are, Isaac Paredes hit 31 Homeruns with an .840 OPS in 2023. There is a very shortlist of players who can be extremely valuable while posting a .267 OBP, and Jose Siri is very much on there, largely thanks to his freaky athleticism. I am not sure there is a more underrated player in baseball than Harold Ramirez, I doubt the average baseball fan knows Harold Ramirez batted .313 with a 125 OPS+. I hate to say it but the way it looks to me, the Rays are manipulating Junior Caminero’s service time, they called him up to be a key cog in a playoff push, but he is not a better player than Jose Caballero, my brain simply can not comprehend that. The only explanation would be that they want him to get more SS reps but I will say this, when he comes up, this lineup will be absurdly lengthy. I must say, I am not sure there is a worse catching tandem in baseball than Rene Pinto and Alex Jackson, but I am completely ready to be humbled by the Rays front office. I have already spoke on the Rays horrible injury luck but this rotation is still very solid. I am bullish on Zach Eflin, who the Rays Identified and paid a franchise record contract, I will go in depth on my Eflin obsession in the CY section. The Rays sent highly touted 1B prospect Kyle Manzardo to Cleveland for Aaron Civale, and he did not make due as a Ray, posting a 5.36 ERA. This is not who he is and his 3.63 FIP shows it, thankfully he still has control to show the Rays he is not a 5 era guy. Just as I am bullish on Eflin, I am bullish on Ryan Pepiot. The headliner in the Tyler Glasnow trade, Pepiot has a career 2.67 ERA in 78.1 IP, this feels like the next great get for Tampa. Zack Littell was suprisingly good as a Ray, posting a 3.93 ERA in 87.1 IP, with peripherals to boot. Pete Fairbanks is a Top 10 closer in baseball and he showed it last season, the man who hates the cold posted a 2.52 ERA and earning 25 Saves in 2023. The loss of Robert Stephenson hurts but I really liked the Phil Maton get to offset the loss. Jason Adam proved he is more than capable as a setup man and I am a big fan of the 2 southpaws, Garrett Cleavinger and Colin Poche. Rays rosters have consistently fought above their weight class and expect 2024 to be no different. Doubt the Rays at your own risk!
MVP: Yandy Diaz
Before I get into the Yandy Diaz portion, I must advise the now Cleveland Guardians to block the Tampa Bay Rays number, between the fleeces for Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay robbed Cleveland of being a perennial playoff team. Now lets get into what Cleveland is missing out on. In the last 2 years, Yandy has put up a 142 OPS+ and a 158 OPS+ respectively, these numbers are flat out elite. Yandy’s quality of contact is up there with the best of them, posting a 95th percentile xwOBA, a 98th percentile average exit velocity, a 97th percentile hard hit rate, and a 98th percentile xBA. You would be hard pressed to find better quality of contact than this. To go along with this, he also has a great approach, striking out just 15.7% of the time while walking more than 10% of the time. Considering all of this, why is he not on the tier of an Aaron Judge or a Shohei Ohtani, the answer lies in his inability to lift the ball. A long standing problem, Diaz’s sweet spot rate is just in the 23rd percentile and a Ground ball rate that has been above 50% every year of his career. This lack of lift knocks him at least one tier down of hitter but despite these issues, Diaz is still one of the better bats in baseball just not the very best.
Cy Young: Zach Eflin
It should not go overlooked what the Rays cooked with Zach Eflin. Eflin could not even crack the Phillies rotation by the end of his Phillies tenure, just a year later we are talking about him as the best arm in the rotation and I am not sure if this is consensus but there is a non zero chance Zach Eflin is your AL Cy Young. Now, what exactly did the Rays do, the main thing was an increase in Cutter and Curveball usage. He threw the Cutter 26% of the time vs 15% in ’23 and he threw the curve 27% of the time vs 20% in ’23. The hook was spectacular with the Curve having a wOBA of .231. The Cutter was much less successful but it all culminated in an extremely successful season, the best of his career by a landslide. His 3.5 ERA was actually unlucky, his xERA was 3 flat and his FIP was 3.01. Eflin had impeccable command, walking just 3.4% of batters and striking out 26.4% of the time. Even when he did throw a ball, his O-Swing was 34%, translation: over a third of balls he threw were swung at. Just absurd stuff.
Breakout: Ryan Pepiot
Pepiot was a 3rd Round Pick in 2019 out of Butler by the Los Angeles Dodgers. Pepiot was very solid in the minor leagues, totaling 238.2 IP and a 3.51 ERA. Pepiot has also been flat out dominant in the bigs, to 78.1 Innings at a 2.76 ERA across both 2022 and 2023. The only reason innings have been so scarce for him is the Dodgers gluttony of organizational depth on the pitching front, who could forget the 2022 Tulsa Drillers rotation. Pepiot has shown me more than enough data wise, to get me amped about what he could look like in a full time starter role. Pepiot has barely allowed any hard contact since debuting, his hard hit rate of 27.4% is up there with the best in the Majors and so is his average exit velocity of 86.7 MPH. Since debuting, Pepiot has walked just over 3% of batters and struck out 24% of batters. A K-BB% of 21% is just about as good as you will see. Pepiot was sent to Tampa along with Jonny Deluca in exchange for Tyler Glasnow and now Twin, Manny Margot. I can not wait to see what the Rays’ pitching brass chefs up with Pepiot.
ROTY: Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero is an absolute freak athlete with an inspiring journey. Caminero was signed out of the Dominican Republic for just 225k by the baseball franchise that resides in Cleveland. Caminero had almost no prospect status when he was traded for Tobias Myers in November of 2021. This would turn out to haunt the nightmares of everyone who associates with Cleveland. Caminero had some of the most helium of any prospect during the 2023 season, in which he hit 31 minor league homers across High A and Double A despite a ground ball issue. He was dominant at both stops, posting a 190 A+ WRC+ and a 140 AA WRC+. The Rays decided to have him skip AAA all together in favor of having him on the roster for their playoff push. This is why I find it comical that he did not break camp, he has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues. This is a guy with plus-plus juice and average hit. It should not be long before he is rightfully recalled to Tampa.
Diamond Metrics 