By Jonah Drew

Ty France: 60.7% Hard Hit Rate

Since coming to Seattle from San Diego, Ty France had been an extremely consistent hitter, posting a wRC+ above 125 in 2020, 2021, and 2022. However, 2023 was not as successful, as a First Baseman it is his duty to provide impact to a lineup that desperately needed. He did not do that, France posted a Hard Hit Rate of 38.6% and a SLG of .366, this is not going to cut it for a First Baseman that does not play particularly good defense. It seems France has made a decision to sacrifice some hit for power. As previously stated, France nearly doubled his Hard Hit Rate, meaning his batted balls are coming off the bat at 95 MPH or greater. This, along with his improved launch angles, have generated a barrel rate in the 84th percentile. In 2023, a season where a struggled, France was only striking out at a 17.6% clip, now, he is striking out at a 25% clip. France is okay with striking out more, if it means he is hitting the ball significantly harder. This change has helped him post a 94th percentile xwOBA of .436, the change will yield significantly better results in due time.

Jordan Hicks: 4.5% Walk Rate

After Jordan Hicks signed a 4 year, 44 Million dollar deal to join the San Francisco Giants this past off-season, the rumor mill was swirling about Jordan Hicks being a full time starter. First of all, I was skeptical that these rumors were even true, second of all, I did not like this move at all. Hicks is one of the hardest throwers ever, no exaggeration and he came along with the expected concerns. Hicks posted an 11th percentile, 11.2% BB% in 2023, an improvement from his 1st percentile BB% rate in 2022. Although he still throws hard, he has sacrificed some velocity in order for better control. I also find his 74.9% F-Strike% interesting as it is a massive jump from where he has usually been. Hicks is making an effort to stay in pitchers counts and to stop issuing free passes.

Edward Olivares: 65% Sweet Spot Rate

Who is Edward Olivares, well he is a 28 year old outfielder who started his career in San Diego, then made his way to Kansas City, where he had a quietly good season last year, and is now playing for the 9-4 Pittsburgh Pirates. Next, what is sweet spot rate, well that this calculating by finding how many times a player hits a ball at an optimal launch angle(between 8 and 32 degrees) and dividing it by BBE. His tally ranks in the 100th percentile and has allowed him to generate a barrel rate of 23.1%, despite not hitting the ball particularly hard. This improvement has yielded some ridiculous numbers that frankly aren’t sustainable, but there is no reason he can not be a key piece for Pittsburgh going forward.

Baltimore Orioles Pitching: .286 xwOBA

2023 was a coming out party for the Orioles as an organization. The club won over 100 games and the American League regular season title. The Orioles can mainly thank their potent young lineup for this massive season. Their pitching as a whole was not World Series caliber and that is the main reason that they got bounced in the ALDS by the eventual champion Texas Rangers. GM Mike Elias new recognized this issue and pounced, landing former Cy Young winner, Corbin Burnes, and thanks to their unfathomable depth, they barely even felt it. In 2023, the Orioles posted a .317 xwOBA as a staff, not where you want to be if you want to win a World Series like Baltimore does. Combine this with their ever improving young lineup, the sky is the limit for this team.

Luis Arraez: .250 Avg

There was a time last season when we as a community were talking about Luis Arraez potentially being the first player to hit .400 since Ted Williams did it all the way back in 1941. Just a shade under a calendar year later, and Luis Arraez is just a .250 hitter, what gives? For starters, he has really struggled to hit left handed pitching, something that has not been a major issue in the past. Arraez is hitting just .115 against southpaws with a .412 OPS to boot. Luis is may be getting slightly unlucky, hence his .273 xBA, but even that is not enough to make him a player of significant value. Arraez is a horrible fielder(-5 OAA) and provides very little impact(.348 xSLG). It is truly shocking to see a hitter of Arraez caliber struggle like this, even if it is early.

MJ Melendez: .88 BB/K

MJ Melendez was once a heralded catching prospect who had some unforeseen raw athleticism from a backstop. Fast forward a couple of years and Melendez is playing for his life in 2024. Melendez has struggled badly in his first 2 seasons as a pro, barely posting an OPS above 700 in both years. This is largely in part of his plate discipline, posting BB/K ratios of .5 and .36 in 2022 and 2023 respectively. His .88 BB/K ratio has helped him post a 1.101 OPS to start 2024. A large part of his plate discipline success has been his selectiveness and willingness to go deep into counts, Melendez has lowered his swing rate by 6% and his Z-Swing by 8%.

Lawrence Butler: 14.3% Walk Rate

Lawrence Butler is far from a household name, and partly because he is a member of the Oakland A’s Organization. Butler is a very toolsy prospect, he has some serious raw power and he can absolutely fly from a very wirey frame. While these tools have always been there, he has never had a great approach. He has not posted a double digit walk rate since he was in Low A in 2021. This is why it is so shocking that his peak walk rate comes vs major league pitching. It is also worth mentioning that he walked just 3% of the time in his debut MLB season.

Freddie Freeman: -3 Defensive Runs Saved

I always thought that defense from the first base position was generally very overlooked. No it is not a premium defensive position like a shortstop or a centerfield but some people act like First Baseman are essentially Designated Hitters which they are not. This is a small part of what makes Freddie Freeman a future hall of famer. Freeman has always been a strong defensive first baseman and the metrics have backed it up. This is why it is so shocking that someone with his defensive resume is struggling like Freeman, his -3 DRS mark ranks dead last among first baseman. It must be said these defensive metrics are an imperfect science and can fluctuate drastrically but Freeman is getting up there in age so it is at least something to monitor.

Reid Detmers: .166 wOBA(4SM FB)

Reid Detmers is a former Top 10 pick out of Louisville, who has always been a supreme talent. The southpaw is really flexing his muscles in the young 2024 season, he has a 1.07 ERA in 17 IP with a 100th strikeout rate. He is off to as hot of a start as just about any pitcher in all of baseball, thanks to his 4SM Fastball. The pitch has gained some serious ride up in the zone, averaging 1.9 more inches of vertical movement than the average Four Seamer. The craziest thing about this pitch’s immense success, it has been his Achilles heal in the past. Last season, Detmers fastball allowed a .291 BAA and a .383 wOBA, that pitch did not have nearly the ride that this year’s does. This fastball upgrade has been the driving factor for Detmers blazing hot start to 2024

Jose Caballero: .320 xBA

Yes, you are correct, the Tampa Bays Rays have done the thing again. Caballero was brought to St. Pete’s by way of Seattle in exchange for another Rays project in Luke Raley. Caballero was a solid defensive middle infielder for Seattle but really nothing more. The Rays have had a clear objective for Caballero’s approach, be aggresive. Caballero has been swinging much much more, including an incredibly high 70.2% Z-Swing. Caballero has not drawn a single walk yet, playing just about everyday 2 weeks into the season, that is almost impressive. Caballero’s xBA in Seattle was just .205, a jump of more than 10% is very impressive in just a one season sample. Combine this with elite speed and defense, you got yourself a dude.

Sources

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

MLB film room

By Jonah Drew

Hunter Greene has long wowed relatively casual viewers with his eye popping velocity going all the way back to his time at Notre Dame HS in Sherman Oaks, California. This led to him being selected 2nd Overall in the 2017 Draft by Cincinnati. Greene did not pitch in pro baseball in between the 2018 and 2021 season. Greene came back strong in 2021, a 3.30 ERA in 106.0 IP spread across Double A and Triple A. This is somewhat expected against lower quality hitters considering the sheer velocity Greene throws with. However, his splits between Double and Triple A were very telling, against lower level AA hitters he dominated to the tune of a 1.93 ERA, these are hitters who have likely never faced velocity of this caliber. On the other hand, in 14 AAA starts, Greene posted a 4.13 ERA, AAA consists largely of current and future big leaguers, who are able to handle velocity.

There is a common misconception among these casual baseball consumers that velocity is the lone factor in determining the quality of a 4 Seam Fastball. This could not be further from the truth, there are multitude of things that go into grading a fastball. Some of these things entail, spin rate, induced vertical break, and vertical approach angle. Unfortunately, Hunter Greene struggled with these tertiary fastball characteristics. This led to his fastball getting absolutely pillaged since his Major League debut back in 2022, headlined by an absolutely abysmal -12 Run Value on the pitch this past season. Pair this with just one reliable secondary and real control issues and you get a below average starter. That is exactly what Greene has been these past 2 years, posting a 95 and 98 ERA+ in 2022 and 2023 respectively.

This all sounds extremely negative regarding the future outlook for the flamethrowing right hander but Greene has made tangible tweaks to his arsenal that have shown to be successful both in the short and long term.

Greene’s First 2 Starts of 2024:

3.30 vs Washington: 4.2 IP 5 Hits 2 ERs 7 Ks 4 BBs 17 Whiffs

4.5 vs New York: 6 IP 3 Hits 1 ER 6 Ks 1 BB 16 Whiffs

Greene’s 2024 Stat line:

10.2 IP 2.53 ERA 2.77 FIP 2.47 xERA .165 xBAA .253 xwOBAcon

A stark contrast from his below average 2022 and 2023.

It is clear that Hunter Greene went into this past off-season with a motive to make changes to his stuff to help him improve. Let’s start with the Fastball, Greene is still sitting 99 MPH, ranking in the 100th percentile but the change comes in the shape department. Greene’s 4 Seamer had a vertical movement vs avg. of -.3 in 2023, he has raised this mark up to .7. This is a significant boost to his fastball shape which had been a serious question in the past. Making his shape even slightly above average goes a long way, considering the velocity it could take the pitch from batting practice to borderline plus.

Greene has also made significant improvements to both his secondary offerings. Starting with his Slider, a pitch that has been his most successful in his MLB career thus far. The pitch generated a .176 xBAA and 39.2% whiff rate in 2023, both of which are elite marks. Greene has refined the pitch and made it better than it already was, getting it’s stuff+ all the way up 152, second in all of baseball, just behind Aaron Civale of the Rays. Now to his 3rd Pitch, in 2023, Greene threw a changeup just over 5% of the time and it got absolutely rocked, knowing this, Greene scraped the pitch in favor of a split finger. He uses this pitch at a similar rate but has has much more success in the early going. The pitch has a spin rate of just over 1100 RPM and has not allowed a single hit yet, although it is obviously, very very early on.

Hunter Greene is clearly a much improved pitcher with a much improved arsenal. Greene has always been able to rack up Strikeouts thanks to his devastating slider which is only getting better, as are the rest of his pitches. His K rate has been in the 30% range and he looks to be on track to repeat that rate, if not improve upon it. He is also not giving up nearly as much hard contact as he previously was, so far his Hard Hit rate is in the 75th percentile, compared to just the 16th percentile in 2023. Greene looks to be blossoming into the potential ace that everyone thought he could be. This is a lesson to all baseball fans, do not be so quick to give up on pitchers, especially not ones with the raw talent of Hunter Greene, remember, he is still just 24 years old despite being drafted all the way back in 2017.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

By Jonah Drew

Expectations were low for the Red Sox heading into the 2024. The main reason for the doubt were the question marks regarding the rotation. The guy who was expected to be the best pitcher in this rotation has struggled in Brayan Bello, however the latter 4 have been excellent. Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, Kutter Crawford, and the man who has stood out to me, Nick Pivetta, all have ERAs below 1.80. It is definitely worth mentioning that they have faced two sub par lineups in the Mariners and the Athletics to open up the season. Regardless of the competition, the Red Sox rotation and specifically Nick Pivetta have shown serious improvement, helping Boston to get off to a tremendous 5-2 start.

Nick Pivetta has been solid since making the short trip from Philadelphia to Boston. Pivetta posted a 4.53 ERA in 30 Starts in 2021 and he posted a 4.56 ERA in a league leading 33 Starts in 2022. Pivetta split his 2023 between the bullpen and the starting rotation making 38 appearances with just 16 of them being starts. All together Pivetta put up a very solid 4.04 ERA, a 113 ERA+. Pivetta’s peripherals really did turn some heads, his sub 4 FIP , 3.98 xERA, and 3.55 xFIP showed that Nick Pivetta could be even better than his already strong 2023. Pivetta showed tremendous ability to elude bats was on full display last season, his 35.5% O-Swing, his 31.2% K rate, and his 29.3% CSW% were all eye opening. As impressive as all of this is, Pivetta was just scratching the surface of what he could turn out to be.

Nick Pivetta’s first 2 starts in 2024:

3.29 @ Seattle: 6.0 IP 3 Hits 1 Earned Run 10 Ks 0 BBs 17 Whiffs

4.3 @ Oakland: 5.0 IP 5 Hits 0 Earned Runs 3 Ks 1 BB 12 Whiffs

Elite.

Lets take a deep dive into what makes me so excited about Pivetta’s arsenal

In 2023, Pivetta was extremely 4SM Fastball reliant, throwing the pitch over 50% of the time. This was for good reason, his fastball is an excellent pitch, sitting about 95 MPH with great ride up in the zone. Unfourtanetly, his Fastball reliance neutralized the pitch, allowing a .326 wOBA and generating a whiff rate of 24.7%. Hitters saw the pitch so much that they adjusted and were prepared to see it, allowing them to hit it even if the pitch characteristics are great. To his credit, Pivetta recognized this and fixed it. Pivetta damn near cut the usage in half, throwing it 32.8% of the time thus far while maintaining the shape and velocity. Pivetta has reaped the benefits, allowing just a .180 wOBA and generating a whiff rate.

Pivetta rarely threw his Sweeper at all in 2023, throwing the tertiary pitch just 5.4% of the time. Despite it’s lack of usage the pitch was very productive in 2023. It generated a .135 BA, a .182 SLG, a .150 wOBA, and a 44.4% whiff rate. It was clear that it would be in his best interest to throw the pitch significantly more in 2024, and that he did. The sweeper has been his second most used pitch, compared to just his fifth most used pitch in 2023. The pitch has continued to be absolutely wicked, generating a .067 BA and .67 SLG, if you are not aware, this means Pivetta has not allowed a single XBH in his 2 starts. Pivetta’s sweeper has allowed an absolutely minuscule .060 wOBA. Pivetta threw the pitch to a lefty just 3 times all season last year, he threw it to a lefty 4 times in his opening start in Seattle. It his clear that a tangible adjustment has been made and I expect it to be extremely beneficial.

The 2 other primary pitches for Pivetta have both been very good, as they were in the previous year. These pitches being his Cutter and his Curveball. Despite seemingly being overtaken by sweeper, both of these pitches have been more than solid, both allowing sub 87 MPH average exit velocities. Pivetta’s cutter has had some iffy baseline numbers but his statcast data makes it clear that this is simply some bad luck. Pivetta also had a slight walk issue in 2023, posting a 8.5% walk rate. This is why it is absolutely eye popping that Pivetta has only walked one batter in his 11 frames of work. Thanks to his revamped arsenal, Pivetta has struck out an unfathomable 47.6% strikeout rate, obviously this will not hold, but considering his strike out track record and his adjustments, it is not impossible that this number is not north of 35%. It is clear Pivetta made substantial changes to his pitch mix and they are working like a charm. As crazy as it sounds, this could be the Frontline arm that Red Sox have been so desperately looking for.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

Statmuse