By Jonah Drew

*All records are as of before the May 1st slate

1. Atlanta Braves(19-9)
2. Baltimore Orioles(19-10)
3. Los Angeles Dodgers(19-13)
4. New York Yankees(19-12)
5. Philadelphia Phillies(20-11)
6. Cleveland Guardians(19-10)
7. Chicago Cubs(18-12)
8. Kansas City Royals(18-13)
9. Seattle Mariners(17-13)
10. Milwaukee Brewers(18-11)
11. Texas Rangers(16-14)
12. Cincinnati Reds(16-14)
13. New York Mets(15-14)
14. San Diego Padres(15-18)
15. Detroit Tigers(17-13)
16. Boston Red Sox(17-13)
17. Minnesota Twins(16-13)
18. Tampa Bay Rays(14-17)
19. Arizona Diamondbacks(14-17)
20. Toronto Blue Jays(15-16)
21. San Francisco Giants(14-16)
22. Houston Astros(10-19)
23. Pittsburgh Pirates(14-17)
24. Washington Nationals(14-15)
25. Oakland Athletics(14-17)
26. St. Louis Cardinals(14-16)
27. Los Angeles Angels(11-19)
28. Colorado Rockies(7-22)
29. Chicago White Sox(6-24)
30. Miami Marlins(7-24)

Sources:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

By Jonah Drew

C.J. Abrams has never not had tremendous expectations on him, being selected 6th Overall by the San Diego Padres, by all accounts one of the best organizations in terms of scouting and drafting, out of Blessed Trinity HS in Georgia. Abrams dominated at all levels of the minor leagues and gaining some serious steam on the prospect pedigree front. Abrams spent 3 full calendar years as top 25 prospect in baseball by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. Abrams played just 46 Games for the big club in San Diego before being traded at the 2022 Deadline. Who was he traded for you ask? Well that would be the modern day Ted Williams, Juan Soto. He along with Mackenzie Gore, Robert Hassell, James Wood, Luke Voit, and Jarlin Susana. C.J. was the headliner in this deal, he was given the unfair burden of trying to fill the gigantic shoes of Juan Soto. I’m sure that this, along with the fact that he was a 21 year old the highest level contributed to his 74 OPS+ to finish the year in Washington.

It felt as if a breakout was imminent in 2023 for Abrams. However, he did not start the year setting the world ablaze, posting an OPS a hair above .700 in both April and May. Not too bad but he was clearly more talented than his production. June however, now that was bad, Abrams posted an abysmal .247 OBP and a .585 OPS. Things were looking bleak for Abrams, people were beginning to question if the Nationals had made a huge mistake, until July. Abrams finally heated up, slugging .500 and hitting 4 homers in the month. After a down August, Abrams finished the season on a high note, having a strong September. Overall, 2023 turned out to be a respectable season for Abrams, logging 18 HRs and a .712 OPS with 47 Stolen Bases to boot. For whatever reason, fans quick a bit hyperbolic when talking about Abrams, making some brash claims and calling this some breakout season. I did not see it at all, Abrams underlying data was ugly despite some solid baseline numbers in his 3.4 win season. Abrams posted a 21st percentile xwOBA, a 16th percentile average exit velocity, a 33rd percentile xSLG, and a 14th percentile chase rate. This made me question where all this buzz surrounding Abrams was coming from. He has silenced me and any doubters just several months later.

Abrams has infact, set the world ablaze with his torrid start to the 2024 season. Abrams has a triple slash of .297/.358/.676 with 6 HRs, 4 SBs, and a league leading 3 triples. This is good for a 1.1 bWAR and a 175 wRC+. These numbers are a significant upgrade from his middling 2023 and it isn’t suprising if you take a look at his peripheral metrics. Abrams has improved his xwOBA to .405(92nd Pct), his xBA to .323(94th Pct), his xSLG to .575(93rd Pct), his BB% up to 8.5%, and what I believe the most significant, his 48.3% Sweet Spot%(97th Pct). Abrams did not optimize his launch angles well at all in 2023, his Sweet Spot% was in the 30th percentile at 32.6% and he still mustered 18 jacks without even hitting the ball particularly hard, another thing he has improved on. Although his defense has continued to not be great, it is clear that he has the potential to be a plus defender at short, he has a 67th percentile arm and 84th percentile sprint speed. His lacks defensive instincts but he has the raw tools to be a strong defender, those instincts should come with time, after all he is still just 23 years of age. Abrams seems to be putting it together at it is clear the Nationals have their star of the future(and the present) at the shortstop position.

Sources:

Baseball America

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

Statmuse

By Jonah Drew

The Shota Imanaga sweepstakes took a backseat to the well heralded monetary feud between the financial titans of MLB for the services of Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Shota was projected anywhere with any significant financial punch for a multi year deal in any range between 75-100 Million Dollars. This is why it came as such a shocker when it was announced that Imanaga had signed a 4 year 54 Million dollar deal to play for the Cubs. A signing that looks to be a heist on the part of Jed Hoyer and the Cubs brass, I will be going in depth on Imanaga’s success later in the article.

Michael Busch was selected 31st overall by the Los Angeles Dodgers out of the University of North Carolina all the way back in 2019. Since that point, all Busch has done is rake, posting a career .919 OPS in the minor leagues. Busch was as blocked as anyone I have seen since I started seriously evaluatings. It was especially unforeseen because Busch is not limited in terms of positional versatility. Busch can play all over the diamond but as we know, the Dodgers can hang with anybody not located in Baltimore, Maryland for organizational depth purposes and he was blocked everywhere he went. This is why prospect nerds like myself were elated to find out that Busch had been sent to Chicago in exchange for two high upside arms in Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope. Busch has absolutely mashed since having the opportunity to play everyday without looking over his shoulder at Max Muncy, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman.

Shota Imanaga Breakdown:

Shota Imanaga has been doing this dominating thing for a while now, going back to his days with the Yokahoma Baystars in the NPB. Across 8 NPB Seasons, Imanaga pitched over 1000 Innings at a 3.18 Earned Run Average. To go along with that, Imanaga struck out 9.2 per 9 while walking just 2.5 per 9. Coming stateside, Imanaga drew a lot of comparisons to Nestor Cortes of the Yankees, I see it but I would consider him an upgraded version of nasty Nestor. To say Shota is off to a great start would be an extreme understatement. Throw 15.0 Innings, Imanaga has not allowed a single earned run, has struck out 16 hitters and walked just 2. The one thing I do not expect to continue is his ability to limit the long ball, he has not allowed a homer yet in his 3 starts. Imanaga throws his four seamer over 67% of the time, a ridiculous rate. As great as the pitch is, it is very prone to allowing homers. Sitting 93 with some crazy ride up in the zone, the pitch allows a ton of fly balls, hence the 32 degree launch angle, it does balance out with the amount of weak pop ups it generates though. This especially dangerous at a place like Wrigley Field, where on any given day the wind could carry a lazy flyball into the bleachers. I also really like both of Imanaga’s secondaries, a splitter of course, and a sweeper. Despite what the BAA may lead you to believe, his splitter has actually been very good. Underlying numbers such as his .278 xwOBA and his 53.8% whiff rate shows the pitch is actually a very solid tertiary offering. Imanaga mainly uses his sweeper against Left Handed Hitters, typical for southpaws with sweepers and sliders. The pitch also has a misleading BAA but it has an average exit velocity of just 76.9 MPH and a whiff rate of 37.5%. Imanaga has been absolutely dominant as a 30 Year Old rookie and would be my favorite for NL ROY, in a completely foreign country no less. Impressive stuff.

Michael Busch Breakdown:

I referenced how blocked Michael Busch was as a member of the perpetual logjam commonly referred to as the Los Angeles Dodgers. Busch has played over 200 Games in AAA Oklahoma City and has mashed throughout the whole process, posting a 150 wRC+ in a loaded PCL this past year. One explanation some people may point to is that he is a benefactor of the hitter friendly environments imposed by the PCL, this is not the case he absolutely has the Batted Ball data to boot. Many prospects with Busch’s pedigree don’t even play 200 games in MiLB but Busch exceeded that benchmark at just one stop. Even though he was the victim of some prospect fatigue, Busch was still widely regarded as a comfortable Top 75 guy. This is why it should not floor you that Busch is obliterating baseballs the way he is now. Through 18 Games, Busch has posted a .317/.400/.667 slash line with a 187 wRC+, and 6 Homers already. The craziest part of these tremendous baseline numbers, Busch’s peripheral data backs it up. Busch has posted a 97th percentile xwOBA, an 85th percentile xBA, a 99th percentile xSLG, a 95th percentile average exit velocity, a 98th percentile barrel rate, and an 88th percentile sweet spot rate. For a rookie, for anybody, these numbers are absolutely elite and he has given us no reason to speculate that this heater is a fluke in the slightest. Michael Busch should not still have rookie eligibility as a 26 year old, but here we are and I could not be more excited that Busch is thriving in his new found opportunity.

Sources:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

CBS Sports

Fangraphs