By Jonah Drew
In his first off-season as Mets President of Baseball Operations, David Stearns made a couple of controversial moves on the starting pitching front. In a highly inflated market, Stearns signed Luis Severino to a 1 year, 13 million dollar contract and Sean Manaea to a 2 year, 28 million dollar deal. Both of these guys had success in the past but had struggled in the years leading up to them hitting free agency. Severino was coming off a 6.65 ERA and Manaea had been relegated to the bullpen in San Francisco, however David Stearns saw something in their profile that made him believe that they could return to their prime form. Unsuprisingly, David Stearns was right, both of these moves were a smashing success. Severino led the team in IP and posted a 3.91 ERA, earning himself a record breaking deal with the Athletics. Manaea was even better, posting a 3.47 ERA, making huge start after huge start down the stretch and eventually being rewarded with a handsome, 3 year extension with New York.
Considering this, it was absolutely baffling to me that so many people had doubts about this Mets pitching staff. As is the David Stearns way, he did not spend much on arms this past off-season, rather he spent on the bats(Juan Soto in particular) and found budget options in free agency and trusted his ability to develop pitchers internally. The Mets brought in former Yankees Closer, Clay Holmes to be a starter. Frankie Montas, who has had a very similar career arc to Sean Manaea up to this point, was brought in on a 2 year, 34 million dollar deal. They also made what originally seemed like an inconsequential signing in Griffin Canning, but with Canning in the opening day rotation, it seems he will have a significant impact on the outcome of this Mets season. They also made impactful bullpen moves in A.J. Minter, and resigning of Ryne Stanek. Coming into the season though, the consensus was that the pitching staff, would actually be the Achilles heel of this ball club.
However, despite unfortunate injuries to Sean Manaea(Oblique), Paul Blackburn(Knee), and Frankie Montas(Lat), the Mets’ pitching staff has been absolutely stellar early on. This staff has allowed a league best, 32 runs(25 earned), with the next best being the Giants at 39 runs. This is partly because they simply refuse to let opposing hitters leave the yard, having allowed just 6 home runs to this point, partly because of their collective 10 degree average launch angle. This is why they are sufficed to allow a 42.8% hard hit rate, as long as it is a ground ball, which 52.2% of their batted balls happen to be. They also have 6.2% Meatball rate, good for second in MLB, this speaks volumes about the ability and the emphasis of this Mets’ staff to have strong command within the zone. It The Mets emphasis of keeping the ball in the park has not only been successful in limiting home runs, it has been instrumental for their overall success as the staff has allowed the second lowest OPS(.584) and the third lowest wOBA(.271), in all of baseball.
An starting five of Clay Holmes, Tylor Megill, David Peterson, Kodai Senga, and Griffin Canning may not jump off the page in terms of name value, but the group has been outstanding almost three turns through. Clay Holmes 4.30 ERA is extremely misleading and a prime example of small sample size theatre, as he has struck out 29% of batters, posted a 51.3% GB%, and a 2.31 FIP, the surprise opening day starter has actually been superb in his first three starts in Queens. For a long time, I didn’t see the vision with Tylor Megill but towards the tail end of last season, I saw some statistical signs that the long awaited breakout might finally come to fruition for Big Drip. It’s still early, but I may have been right, as he has shoved in his first three starts, sitting at a 0.63 ERA with a 27.4% K rate and a 3.1 xERA. David Peterson continues to make analytics nerds like myself look like complete and total fools. Last season, he posted a 2.9 ERA, but many predicted serious regression as most peripherals had him above the 4 plateau. Same story this season, he is currently at a 2.53 ERA with a 5.28 xERA, something about DP is just too hard for these metrics to quantify. I am happy to say it looks like I will be on the right side of history with Griffin Canning. Many worried that he would be the same pitcher he was in Anaheim, but as is often the correct move, I put my faith in David Stearns. Canning has looked like one Stearns’ patented diamond in the rough success stories thus far, posting a 2.79 ERA, albeit in just 9.2 IP. He is showing signs of sustainable success though, posting a 60% Ground ball rate, and a 25% K rate. Lastly, people forget how talented Kodai Senga is. In his first year stateside, he was absolutely amazing, posting a 2.98 ERA in 29 starts and earning Cy Young votes in the process. He did miss most of 2024, but ’25 Kodai, seems eerily similar to ’23 Kodai, sitting at a 1.80 ERA. The starting rotation has been fantastic thus far, now imagine what it could look like once Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, and Paul Blackburn throw their hats in the ring.
If there is one thing David Stearns can do in this life, it’s build a quality bullpen. This bullpen has been more than quality, though. The unit has been the best in baseball to this point, posting a 1.27 ERA as a collective. Max Kranick has been the story, the life long Met fan turned heads in spring training with his stuff and it has translated thus far. In his nine innings of work, he has yet to allow an earned run, nor has he walked a single batter. Huascar Brazoban and Jose Butto have also been great in their long relief work, both of which are above a 320 ERA+ with peripherals to back it up. They are both building off of strong years in 2024. Reed Garrett, A.J. Minter, and Ryne Stanek have been rock solid in set up roles, with Garrett and Stanek actually yet to allow a single earned run. Edwin Diaz is a loaded conversation, but his ERA is inflated from one blow up outing in a game that was already virtually out of reach against the Marlins on Wednesday. David Stearns has certainly left in mark on this stable.
Despite all the clamor and critique of this group, the pitching staff in Queens is absolutely terrific. Nobody knows how to get creative and find ways to get outs like David Stearns, and now that he seemingly has unlimited money from Owner Steve Cohen, there is no telling how good of a staff we could see from the Mets in the future!
Sources
Baseball Reference
Baseball Savant
Fangraphs
MLB.com
Diamond Metrics 