By Jonah Drew

Who is this absolute fire baller who has seemingly popped up out of thin air and magically became the best pitcher in baseball. Well, that would be a Yankees’ rookie right hander, Luis Gil. Gil was signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Minnesota Twins for just $90,000 all the way back in 2015. For reference, this man has been in the Minor Leagues since the Obama administration and is just now making his graduating his prospect status, and still, he is dominating. After a 2017 MiLB season in which he 41 solid rookie ball innings, the Yankees smartly identified him, and brought him in for outfielder, Jake Cave. While his results fluctuated, strikeouts were a constant, he did not have significant Minor League Stint in which he did not have double digits strikeouts per 9. Unfortunately, the other constant was his lack of control. Walking 5.4 per 9 for his Minor League career, control was essentially the only thing holding him back. Even as Stuff>Pitchability today’s MLB is, the list of guys who can survive(let alone dominate)walking more than 5 per 9 as big league starters is extremely short but in an interesting development, Luis Gil has firmly put himself in that group.

Before we get too deep into the murky analytical waters let’s just take a second to awe at the pure surface level dominance of Mr. Gil. Despite technically being a Rookie coming into 2024, this is actually his third time with the big club, he had a cup of coffee in the bigs in both 2021 and 2022. The former was actually a massive success, Gil made six starts, to the tune of a 3.08 ERA(141 ERA+). On the contrary, 2022 was a short-lived failure, Gil only survived to see one start in which he only went 4.0 Innings, allowing 5 earned on 5 hits and 2 walks. 2024 however, has been a completely different ball game. Luis Gil has pitched 63.1 Innings across 11 starts, posting a sub 2 ERA while striking out 31.7% of batters. Frankly, Gil has been unhittable, opposing hitters are batting an absolutely minuscule, league leading, .135 against him. He also leads baseball in hits per 9 at 4.1. In his 11 starts, how many do you think have resulted in more than 3 earned runs? If you said more than one, than you’d be incorrect, that is unbelievable. Gil has been getting better by the start, at first he was going roughly 4 innings but fast-forward to his latest outing, 8 innings vs the halos. That start was much more than just pure quantity though, in fact it was utter dominance.

8.0 Innings 2 Hits 1 Earned Run 9 Strikeouts 2 Walks 15 Whiffs 47.8 WPA and a W

However, hot starts like these are not completely exclusive to Luis Gil. It does happen every so often where a pitcher has a great 10-11 starts and quickly comes back to earth and then some. That said, we have plenty of reason to believe that this version of Luis Gil is legit. For starters, Gil has an expected ERA of an 89th percentile, 2.77. Gil also has an expected batting average of .181 and an expected slugging percentage of .298. As you would expect Gil is dominant in the swing and miss department. Just to reiterate, Gil is sitting at a 31.7% K rate. To go along with this, Gil has a 30.5% whiff rate and an 82.4% zone contact. Unlike most other swing and miss savants, Gil is not susceptible to hard contact at all, in fact, it is the opposite. Gil has a 75th percentile average exit velocity of 87.7 MPH. He also has a 93rd percentile hard hit rate of just 29.9% and a 64th percentile 6.6% barrel rate. Any way you slice it, Luis Gil is for real.

I briefly discussed Luis Gil’s show stopping fastball velocity, but let me tell you just how nasty he is. Gil throws his 4 Seam Fastball 55.8% of the time and partly thanks to the aforementioned velocity, it has been a booming success. The pitch has an xBA of .181, a .235 wOBA, and a 30.5% whiff rate. Headlining his tertiary offerings is a changeup, a pitch he throws 26.6% of the time. Somehow, this pitch has arguably been better than his fastball. The pitch has a .185 xBA, a .215 wOBA, and a 26.1% whiff rate. He throws something of a turbo change, sitting just over 91 MPH and touching 94-95. The pitch also has exception arm side run and downward break. Speaking of downward break, lets talk Luis Gil’s slider. He throws his slider just over 17% of the time and it is absolutely nasty. The pitch has an xBA of .178, a wOBA of .213, and a 36.7% whiff rate. The pitch also has a ridiculous -4.4 inches of vertical movement vs avg, which is one of the best marks in baseball. The pitch is somewhat limited though because he throws it almost exclusively to right handed hitters. You could make a legitimate argument that his world renowned fastball, is actually his worst pitch and yet, it is still one of the best in the game.

Most pitchers have peaks and valleys but so far for Luis, it has only been Gils.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

MLB.com

MLB Film Room

By Jonah Drew

*Records are as of June 1st

1. New York Yankees(40-19)

2. Philadelphia Phillies(40-18)

3. Los Angeles Dodgers(36-23)

4. Baltimore Orioles(36-19)

5. Atlanta Braves(32-23)

6. Cleveland Guardians(38-19)

7. Kansas City Royals(35-24)

8. Seattle Mariners(32-27)

9. San Diego Padres(31-29)

10. Minnesota Twins(32-25)

11. San Francisco Giants(29-29)

12. Milwaukee Brewers(34-23)

13. Detroit Tigers(28-29)

14. Boston Red Sox(29-29)

15. Chicago Cubs(28-30)

16. Houston Astros(25-33)

17. Texas Rangers(27-30)

18. Tampa Bay Rays(28-30)

19. St. Louis Cardinals(27-28)

20. Toronto Blue Jays(27-29)

21. New York Mets(24-33)

22. Pittsburgh Pirates(26-31)

23. Washington Nationals(26-30)

24. Oakland Athletics(21-36)

25. Cincinnati Reds(25-32)

26. Los Angeles Angels(21-36)

27. Colorado Rockies(21-35)

28. Arizona Diamondbacks(25-32)

29. Miami Marlins(21-37)

30. Chicago White Sox(15-43)

Sources

Baseball Reference

FanGraphs

By Jonah Drew

This MVP Caliber performance has felt like a long time coming for Kyle Tucker. I am going on 3 years running of hold the stance that Kyle Tucker is the Astros’ most valuable player, not Yordan Alvarez nor Jose Altuve. While of course Tucker has been great these past couple of years, he clearly had more in the Tank. Coming into 2022, I thought we were about to see a different level of Tucker yet, it was more of the same, which is nothing to scoff at. No, a 129 wRC+ and a 4.9 fWAR is not a season to slander but coming off a 146 wRC+, I expected a step up. Then, coming into 2023, I was ready to be fooled again, I maintained my bullish stance on Tucker. Wouldn’t you know it he repeated an early similar season to the one he posted in 2022, he put up an improved 140 wRC+ but the exact same fWAR of 4.9. Yet, even though he hadn’t shown it yet, I still believed there was an MVP Caliber uptick within range, and so far, it looks like my patience is paying off.

The term “5 Tool Player” refers to a given player being comfortably above average at all of the 5 scouting tools that players are graded on a scale of 20-80, with 80 being best in MLB at that specific tool and 20 being a rare level of pure futility. This term is thrown far to loosely, it seems like every time a well rounded player comes around, the general baseball public wastes no time anointing him as the newest 5 tool player. I do not think these people realize just how difficult it is to truly earn this label. To possess a plus hit tool, plus power, plus speed, a plus glove, and a plus arm, is extremely rare, hence why the club is no more than 8-10 names. This list, this club, this group, whatever you want to call it, is invalid if it does not include Kyle Daniel Tucker. Tucker is an easy above average hitter, an 89.6% Z-Contact rate and a 98th percentile chase rate are both tremendous marks. Tucker also has some serious pop, his Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate is consistently in the upper echolon. These metrics actually play up thanks to the fact that he is one of the best launch angle generators in the game, consistently being one of the league leaders in Sweet Spot Rate. On a surface level front, Tucker averages 32 Homers per 162 and is currently on pace to shatter that as he is currently Major League Baseball’s Homerun king at 18. The third tool speed is the only one remotely questionable as his run times aren’t what you’d think they’d be but you wont hear me saying someone who averages 25 SB and just 3 CS per 162 is not a plus runner. Tucker is currently in the 86th percentile of Outs Above Average and is consistently hovering around there, the guy is a plus defender in a wacky outfield like the one in Minute Maid, check it off. Lastly, his arm, Tucker has been above average in every single year of his 7 year big league career.

Let’s talk 2024, the best season of Kyle Tucker’s career thus far, by a landslide that is. On a baseline front, Tucker is triple slashing .281/.410/.616(1.016 OPS) with a wRC+ of 188 and an obscene 3.2 fWAR through just 51 Games. These are so behind elite, surely he must be getting lucky, surely this level of performance will come back down to earth, right!? Well, maybe so, but analytically speaking, there is no evidence that this torrid start is any sort of fluke. In fact, his peripheral data may even point to some positive regression somehow. Tucker has an absolutely ridiculous xwOBA of .422(98th Pct), .290 xBA(90th Pct), and a .580 xSLG(97th Pct), yea, Kyle Tucker ain’t going anywhere anytime soon. Tucker has also been a supremely efficient base stealer, swiping 9 bags without being caught once. As you know from my whole 5 tool rant, Kyle Tucker is a plus defender with a cannon attached to his left shoulder. Typically, Tucker is a 30-30 threat but the way it’s looking, Tucker might be looking at a 40-40 season with the former being closer to 50(Whoa).

Now, how did Kyle Tucker take himself from “great player” status to MVP conversations, well, let me tell you. Tucker has always had elite plate discipline with a career 16.0% strikeout rate and a career 10.8% walk rate, great numbers? Yes. Better than what he is doing now? Good one. As I previously said, Kyle Tucker simply does not doing what we call chasing anymore, with a minuscule 16.1% chase rate, this along with great contact rates has helped his strikeout just 15.8% of the time while walking, let me check, 18 PERCENT, nearly an 8 percent jump from his career norm. Kyle Tucker has always had impact, but like this, nope. Tucker has an average exit velocity of 90.9 MPH, a hard hit rate of 45.3%, and a 14.7% barrel rate. For reference Kyle Tucker is usually towards the middle of the pack in these metrics, with his power mainly coming from his innate ability to lift the ball. Now that he is hitting the ball as hard as almost anybody, combine this with his lift ability, you get a ridiculous 18 Homers in just 51 games. Kyle Tucker has always been a fastball masher but this year he has taken it to a new level(Noticing a theme?). King Tuck had a +16 Run Value vs 4 seamers in 2022, and a +22 Run Value vs 4 seamers in 2023, elite. In 2024 you ask, +16, already matching his 2022 total and on pace to damn near double his total from last season. Put Simply, Kyle Tucker has not transformed himself rather he has simply just stayed the course and made himself better in every aspect.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

Statmuse

MLB.com

Wikipedia