In Depth Analytical Analysis of All Things Baseball

Diamond Metrics

  • Heliot Ramos is For Real

    By Jonah Drew

    https://sactownsports.com/mlb-san-francisco-giants-heliot-ramos-all-star-game-roster/

    Heliot Ramos was selected 19th overall by the San Francisco Giants back in 2017 out of Leadership Christian Academy in Puerto Rico. He played 35 rookie ball games and absolutely mashed to the tune of a 1.049 OPS. This was the start of a 7 season minor league tenure which featured some major highs and some major lows. 2019 was a great year for Ramos, spending the vast majority of the season in High A where he posted a .885 OPS. He was able to make it to AA as a teenager and at least held his own posting an OPS just above .740. Coming out of the Covid non-season, the expectation was that Ramos would take the leap and start to really mash at the upper levels. However, it really just stayed status quo, a .756 OPS in AA is not bad at all, but for someone who was billed as a top prospect, you absolutely expect more. He even had a cup of coffee in AAA where he was just about dead average. The was still plenty of hope that Ramos had some untapped potential going into 2022 but unfortunately, 2022 was all but a disaster. Ramos struggled badly in AAA with a .654 OPS and lost any bit of prospect pedigree he had accumulated throughout his minor league career. Ramos even made his big leahie debut but somehow managed to total -.4 fWAR in just 9 Games. Oddly enough, 2023 was actually a tremendous year for Ramos, in Triple A that is. Ramos played so well in AAA to start 2023 that he earned himself a promotion to the big club. Sadly, it was something of a disaster, in 60 PAs, Heliot Ramos slashed .179/.203/.304 and even totaling -.2 fWAR. Suffice to say, not great.

    Judging based off of his prior big league success, It would not be unreasonable to have doubts that Heliot Ramos could even carve out a big league role for himself. Luckily, those doubters were proved wrong as Heliot Ramos has had a torrid first half of 2023. Before we get into the nitty gritty analytics, let’s just take a second to admire the baseline brilliance of Heliot Ramos. Thus far, Ramos is slashing .304/.373/.537 with 14 Homers and 45 RBI. Although Ramos does strike out more than you would like, he more than balances it out, posting a 70th percentile, 9.8% walk rate. An underrated aspect of Ramos’ 2024 campaign has been his defense. Playing 33 games in CF, 21 in LF, and 5 in RF, Ramos has played solid outfield defense. As a prospect, Ramos’ defense was almost viewed as a negative so the fact that he is average center field defense is just icing on the cake. Ramos currently has a 0 FRV, meaning that he has been dead average, nothing more nothing less. He also has a cannon for an arm, having 64th Percentile Arm Strength and 78th Percentile Arm Value. Overall, Ramos has been one of the best Outfielders in the National League and absolutely earned his All Star Nod.

    However, as spectacular as Heliot Ramos’ first half has been, it is not completely out of the ordinary for players to pop, have a strong first half or even full season, and never even sniff those heights again. These seasons often fall under one main category, these players usually have peripherals that indicate that they are getting abnormally lucky and regression to the mean is inevitable. Luckily, Heliot Ramos more than beats these allegations, his peripherals suggest that his rise to stardom, is absolutely for real. Heliot Ramos hits the ball absurdly hard, his average exit velocity is 92.1 MPH, good for the 90th percentile. His 16.3% Barrel Rate is good for the 96th percentile, and his 51.9% Hard Hit Rate puts him in the 90th percentile. His expected stats are also equally impressive though. His xwOBA is .364 is in the 88th percentile and his xBA is the worst of the bunch but still very solid, sitting at .265(68th Pct.). Probably the most impressive of the bunch is his xSLG sitting at .521 spotting him in the 96th percentile. To say Heliot Ramos has juice would be the understatement of the century. He is also a plus runner, posting run times in the 72nd percentile. In an era in which Power/Speed guys are put on a pedestal, Heliot Ramos has both in bunches. Like it or not, Heliot Ramos is here to stay!

    Sources

    Baseball Reference

    Baseball Savant

    Fangraphs

  • The Chosen Kwan

    By Jonah Drew

    Steven Kwan Is Part Of Elite Active Streak In MLB

    In an era where power is supremely heralded, even at the expense of swing and miss, Steven Kwan is such a breath of fresh air. Before we get into the scorched earth tear that Steven Kwan is on, let’s take a second to figure out where the hell this bat to ball savant came from.

    *For what it’s worth I am still not totally convinced he is not a 1970’s baseball agent that was sent to come bring contact hitting back to modern baseball.

    Kwan began his college career all the way back in 2016 up in Corvallis for the Oregon State Beavers. He did not play much his freshman year but his sophomore year was a pretty successful one. Although he did not slug at all, he did bat .331 while getting on base at a .440 clip. His big breakout came in his Junior year, Kwan slashed .356/.463/.457 for a National Champion winning Oregon State team. This led to him being selected 163rd overall by the baseball organization that is located in Cleveland. Kwan played excellent in affiliated ball in 2018 between rookie ball and low A. 2019 was a so-so year for Kwan, he spent the entire year in Lynchburg where he posted a mediocre .735 OPS. Of course, there was no Minor League season in 2020, so 2021 was his next appearance in organized baseball. Whatever he did during quarantine, worked. I say this because Kwan came out the other side much improved, he started in AA where he can out swinging. In his first 51 AA Games, Kwan slashed .337/.411/.539 with 7 homers. This earned him a promotion to AAA, where he continued to pulverize opposing pitchers. In AAA Columbus, Kwan slashed .311/.398/.505 in 26 Games. Kwan only played 77 games in 2021 due to injury but it was clear he was ready for big league action. Kwan has always been an on base machine.

    Steven Kwan actually had a tremendous rookie year in 2022 after he earned big league call up. Helped by an extremely strong start, Kwan slashed .298/.373/.400, good for a 126 wRC+. Kwan became something of a fan favorite as he embodied everything that 2022 Cleveland Guardians baseball was. He was a fundamental, defensive, contact oriented, youthful ball player. Those Guardians shocked just about everybody, winning 92 games and even a playoff series. After getting one win away from the ALCS, Kwan and the team as a whole had sky high expectations headed into 2023. However, the season did not go as planned for either of the aforementioned parties. Coming off a 3rd Place ROY finish, Kwan was expected to take a step up from his strong rookie campaign but the opposite took place. Kwan regressed to a triple slash of .268/.340/.370, not exactly what he or frankly anybody wanted. The Guardians underwent a similar regression, they won just 76 games. This was a severe missed opportunity as the AL Central was historically weak, a simple moderate regression would have likely landed them a division title. This led to a changing of the guard. Legendary manager, Terry Francona retired which invited the ever exuberant Steven Vogt to take the reigns. It’s impossible to determine if contributed to this contributed to the absurd start Steven Kwan is off to but without further a do, let’s get into this tear.

    Last season, then Marlins infielder, Luis Arraez was chasing .400, a feat that has not been conquered since Ted Williams did it in the early 1940’s. Arraez ultimately teetered off as the season progresses and finished the year at .354. This year, we have a new challenger for Williams’ throne, that of course being Steven Kwan. Full transparency, I highly doubt Kwan actually makes a serious case to challenge Ted Williams. This is no slight at Kwan whatsoever but I truly believe it is virtually impossible to hit .400 over a 162 game season in the 2024 MLB. Kwan is also walking at an above average clip which has helped him to an absurd .449 OBP. Kwan has always been notorious for his lack of slugging, bit that gripe is no longer as Kwan sits at .575 in the slugging department. The thing about Kwan that puts him over the top is the fact that he is an elite defender in left field. 89th percentile in range, 87th in arm value, and 68th in arm strength. This all culminates in FRV of 4, good enough for the 87th percentile. This elite defense has earned him gold glove honors in each of his first 2 years and there is absolutely nothing stopping him from contending for a 3-peat. If Kwan can sustain anything that resembles his current level offensive production, he will be among the elite outfielders in all of baseball for years to come.

    There is no denying the level of production Kwan is providing right now, so lets take a look in from an analytical standpoint and find out what has gone into this torrid season. It is easy to say that Kwan is “getting lucky” due to his low average exit velocity but that is a gross oversimplification. Although he doesn’t hit the ball all that hard, he compensates for it with some of the best bat control in baseball. He is in the launch angle sweet spot 43.8% of the time(98th pct). He is able to get the most out of his batted balls not by how hard he hits them, but with the angle in which they come off the bat. This is why stats like xwOBA(.374) and xBA(.338) back up his growth to stardom. He also does not strikeout ever, his 7.5% K% is good for the best in all of baseball. Going deeper, Kwan has a chase rate of 19%, a mark that is near the top of MLB. His Z-Contact is a league leading, 97.5%, in english, out of 100 swings in the strike zone, rounded to a whole number, Kwan will whiff at just 2 of them, that is absolutely insane. If you throw a ball, he won’t swing, if you throw a strike he will hit it, and at an optimal launch angle at that. That is a pretty sound recipe for success if you ask me.

    Sources

    Baseball Reference

    Baseball Savant

    Fangraphs

    Forbes

  • The Seattle Mariners Have a Five Headed Monster

    By Jonah Drew

    All-Stars Luis Castillo and George Kirby have contrasting personalities

    The Seattle Mariners rotation had high expectations coming into 2024 and they have lived up to expectations. They currently sit at 5th in rotation ERA with a 3.42 but it’s clear they are even better than that. Due to some unfortunate injury luck and some frankly out of body stretches from pitchers in the Top 4, that mark would tell you this is not unequivocally the best rotation in baseball. This just not true, there is no five in baseball that can hold a candle to the group of Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Woo, and Miller. Considering the age and sustainability of this quintet, it is not crazy to say that they have the chance to be an all time starting rotation. Let’s get into the breakdown of each of their respective individual brilliance.

    Luis Castillo

    Starting with La Piedra, Castillo was acquired at the 2022 Deadline from Cincinnati in exchange for high profile infield prospects, Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo. Since landing landing in Seattle, Castillo has carried his Midwest dominance and more with him. Castillo finished 5th in Cy Young voting with a 121 ERA+ across a league leading 33 Starts in his first full season in teal. 2024 has been more of the same has Castillo has not missed a start and has posted a 3.35 ERA. Castillo’s K/BB ratios continue to be impressive as he has posted a 25% K rate with just a 6.7% BB rate. Since the trade, Castillo has made a tangible effort to increase his fastball usage. Castillo now throws his 4 seamer 46% of the time compared to just 32% of the time in 2022 and it seems to be paying off. His fastball has been by far his best pitch with a +11 Run Value and a .289 xwOBA. Despite being the “Ace” of this rotation, analytically speaking, there is a real argument that Castillo is not even in the Top 3 of his own team. That is not an indictment on Castillo rather it is an effort to shower praise on his elite rotation mates.

    George Kirby

    George Kirby is an absolute anomaly in today’s baseball landscape, there is just nobody like him anymore. Since the turn of the century there have been 4 pitchers to post a BB/9 below 0.900(In a Full Season). Carlos Silva in 2006, Phil Hughes in 2014, Cliff Lee in 2010 and you guessed it, George Kirby in 2023. This helped Kirby finish 2023 with a 3.35 ERA, although the mark has taken a slight dip, a 3.81 is nothing to scoff at, especially when the peripherals are much better. Kirby sits at a 3.36 xERA and a .293 xwOBA. Kirby has kept up his uncanny strike throwing ability while also generating more swing and miss than ever. Kirby is at a career high 24% K rate while walking an ungodly 2.1% of batters. Kirby is also consistently inducing weak contact, something that has not always been the case. Kirby is allowing an average exit velocity of 88.0 MPH(68th Percentile) and a 35.7% hard hit rate(70th Percentile). George Kirby on a planet of his own in terms of pure control.

    Logan Gilbert

    Since Gilbert made his big league debut back in 2021 he has quietly been of the most consistent arms in the game with his best season coming in 2022 where he posted a 3.2 ERA across 185 innings. However, 2024 looks to be ready to surpass that if he can continue similar production. All signs point to that being the case as he currently sits at a 3.38 xERA and a .294 xwOBA. Gilbert is very well rounded as he generates swing and miss(29.1% Whiff Rate and 24.1% K Rate). The best part of his arsenal is though is the fact that he can do this without sacrificing any control, Gilbert posts a 5.7% BB% which puts him in the 82nd percentile. Gilbert has recently made significant changes to his arsenal that have propelled him into ace territory. His 4 seamer does have a tendency to get hit around a bit so he smartly decreased it’s usage which has helped it play at least marginally better. He debuted his split finger in 2023 and it has been unequivocally his best pitch ever since. The pitch has posted a ridiculous 45% Whiff Rate and a .136 xwOBA. He also debuted both a Cutter and a Curveball, both have which have yielded positive results. His overall arsenal is greatly benefited by his unfair 7.7 feet of extension. Gilbert has transformed himself into one of the best pitchers in the American League.

    Bryan Woo

    Bryan Woo debuted in the first half of last season and while his 2023 may not have jumped off the page results wise, he showed he had the potential to be a force in this league for years to come. In his rookie campaign, Woo posted a 4.21 ERA across 18 big league starts. Woo has struggled with 2 alarming arm issues already in 2024 but luckily all reports show that Woo is going to be okay and will return in due time. However, for the 6 starts Woo has made in 2024, he has just about set the world on fire. In those 6 starts, Woo has pitched 33.2 Innings to the tune of a 1.07 ERA. The peripherals back it up to, Woo has pitched to a 1.80 xERA, a .188 xBA, and a .215 xwOBA. All of which are marks that land him in the top 5 percentile in all of baseball. Woo also has a remarkable 1.7% Walk Rate and 2.2% Barrel Rate. Yea, I’d say that a recipe for success.

    Bryce Miller

    It’s crazy to say but Bryce Miller is really the black sheep of this Seattle rotation. For the Mariners to be able to say a 25 year old with a Mid 3 ERA is your “Black Sheep” is a luxury that almost any organization would kill for. Miller and Woo will always be synonymous with each other as they are so similar in a multitude of ways. First off, they are both college arms who debuted for the Mariners in 2023. But the main similarity is the arsenal and specifically the fastball. They both dominate with a high riding fastball that is absolutely dominant at the top of the zone. They have both been holding up their end of the bargain as Miller has been pretty successful in his own right. Miller sits at a 4 flat xERA and a .263 wOBA. Miller has a projectable formula for success as he dominates with the aforementioned 4 seamer and he has an elite secondary with other tertiaries to play off of it. Miller’s split finger is beyond elite has it boasts some of the best individual results of any pitch in the game. Miller also mixes in a sinker, a sweeper/slider, and a cutter to round out his mix. Bryce Miller as your 5 is an absolute gluttony of riches.

    Sources

    Baseball Reference

    Baseball Savant

    Fangraphs

    The Seattle Times