By Jonah Drew

For a good bit of the season, this American League MVP race has been a four horse race. With the four competitors being Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr., Juan Soto, and Gunnar Henderson. But as it usually does, the race has begun to take shape. While Juan Soto is having a tremendous season, posting a 184 wRC+ with a 6.7 fWAR, I just do not see it happening for him. Luckily Juan Soto is just 25 years old with the opportunity to compete for several MVPs down the line. In addition, the man earned himself an ungodly amount of money, regardless of which borough it comes from. Gunnar Henderson is having an equally impressive season. In just his sophomore season, Gunnar sits at a 6.3 fWAR and a 160 wRC+. Both Soto and Gunnar might be the MVP in a normal year, hell, they might be the MVP if they played on National League teams but instead they will have to settle for 3rd and 4th place. This is because of the godlike seasons we have seen from both Bobby Witt Jr. and Aaron Judge, the two are inseperable when it comes to voting so allow me to lay out the absurdity we are looking at.

Bobby Witt Jr.

Before the 2024 season, Bobby Witt Jr. signed an 11 year, 288 Million dollar extension, making him a Royal for the long haul. Clearly this gave him some comfort because what Witt has done post extension, is just ridiculous. Thus far, Witt is slashing .347/.394/.604 with 22 HRs and 25 SBs. Say what you want about batting average(Trust me I agree), but there is absolutely no denying that .347 is insanely impressive. There is also absolutely nobody in the game that compares Witt in the Power-Speed department. Witt went 30-49 last season and it looks like he’ll be in that ballpark again. Witt is also doing this while playing ELITE shortstop defense, so much so that if the season ended today, he would be my vote for platinum glove. As it stands right now, Bobby Witt Jr. is your fWAR leader, do with that what you will. As impressive as the surface level stats are, I’d argue the peripherals are even more impressive.

Right off the bat, Witt is in the 99th percentile of Batting Run Value, Baserunning Run Value, and Fielding Run Value. There is no aspect of the game of baseball that Bobby Witt Jr. is not among the best at. Nobody epitomizes what it means to be a “5 Tool Player” like Bobby Witt. His absurd slashline is more than backed up by his peripherals, Witt currently has a .329 xBA, a .600 xSLG, and a .414 xwOBA. All of which are marks that land in at the top of the leaderboard respectively. He also hits the ball as hard as anybody, his Average Exit Velocity is 92.9 MPH, his Barrel Rate is at 14.1%, his Hard Hit Rate 49.4%, and his Sweet Spot Rate is 36.8%. WOW. None of this compares to what Witt is doing on the defensive side though. Witt has been pretty far and away the best defender in baseball this year, he is in the 100th percentile in OAA and has made some of the best throws of the season. There is absolutely Bobby Witt Jr. can’t do and in 9/10 seasons, he is the run away MVP, but in 2024, he is in a deadlock with the man himself, Aaron Judge.

Aaron Judge

What do you know, Aaron Judge is doing the thing again, the thing being posting one of the best offensive seasons of the Modern Era. Despite all the fan fair Judge got during his record breaking season in 2022, 2024 is shaping to be an even better season for Judge. He is currently slashing .323/.458/.689 with 41 Homeruns(IT IS AUGUST 11th!). For those who do not have a calculator on hand, that is a 1.147 OPS, good for a 217 OPS+. That would earn him the best offensive season since Barry Bonds in 2004. However, for those Barry Bonds deniers out there, it would be the best Non-Bonds season since Mickey Mantle way back in 1957. Aaron Judge is in the midst of one the best offensive peaks in baseball history.

Not that there was any question about it, but the peripherals more than justify Aaron Judge’s surface level numbers. Rather than boring you with a laundry list, let me put it like this. Aaron Judge leads baseball in the following analytical categories, xwOBA, xSLG, Average Exit Velocity, Barrel Rate, Hard Hit Rate, and Walk Rate. He is also in the 97th percentile of xBA, the 94th percentile of Sweet Spot rate, the 99th percentile of Bat Speed, and the 97th percentile of chase rate. This is the best overall offensive player this game has seen since Barry Bonds, and well…we don’t have to get into that right now. I do have to say tho Judge has been flat out poor defensively this season. That is really the only reason we are having the Witt vs Judge debate.

Overall, this is a historic race, between 2 historic baseball players so more than anything just appreciate it. The question really is, would you rather have the most well rounded player this game has seen in forever, or the best hitter this game as seen in forever, let that determine your vote.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

ESPN

Fangraphs

By Jonah Drew

Winner: Miami Marlins

Acquisitions: Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers, Will Schomberg, Robby Snelling, Adam Mazur, Graham Pauley, Jay Beshears, Jared Serna, Agustin Ramirez, Deyvison De Los Santos, Abraham Ramirez, Andrew Pintar, Wilfredo Lara, and Garrett Forrester

Losses: Jazz Chisholm Jr, Tanner Scott, Bryan Hoeing, Huascar Brazoban, Trevor Rogers, J.T. Chargois, Bryan De La Cruz, and A.J. Puk

Peter Bendix’s first year as the Marlins GM has been tumultuous one thus far. He was heavily scrutinized for the Marlins embarrassing start to the season by the media, including myself. However, as the season has gone on the scrutiny has died down as people began to realize just how far away this team really is. Coming from the Rays FO, Bendix is no stranger to trading impact big leaguers for prospects, and he showed his expertise at this deadline. The only 2 trades I was not in love with were the Jazz trade and the Brazoban trade. Both of the players were rightfully dealt, but I would have liked to see them have get more for a player of Jazz’s caliber, even if it hasn’t been his best year. Outside of those deals, Bendix absolutely killed this deadline. I was bewildered to see what they got for their southpaws, specifically Scott and Rogers. Scott is lights out yes, but to get Robby Snelling alone is impressive but add Pauley and Mazur to the package, is just flat out crazy. I understand how absurd the organizational depth of the Baltimore Orioles is but to give away two top 100 level guys in Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers is just crazy to me. Especially when you consider that Trevor Rogers has been mediocre at best since his stellar rookie year back in 2021.

Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers

Acquisitions: Jack Flaherty, Michael Kopech, Kevin Kiermaier, Tommy Edman, Amed Rosario, and Moises Bolivar

Losses: Thayron Liranzo, Trey Sweeney, Michael Flynn, Miguel Vargas, Jeral Perez, Ryan Yarbrough, James Paxton, and Alexander Albertus

The Dodgers came into the 2024 season as the odds on World Series favorites after their lavish off-season. So much so that they had fans ready to cancel the season and just hand them the trophy. Considering we are talking about baseball, it should not be a shocker that just because they have the big names, they are not the landslide favorites, or even the best team in the NL, that would be the Phillies. Knowing they had to make moves, the Dodgers got aggressive and went out and got one of, if not the best starting pitcher on the market in Jack Flaherty. As much as I love Thayron Liranzo, with the pitching market being as absurd as it is, he is a small price to pay for Jack Flaherty. In a three team deal, the Dodgers came away with Michael Kopech and Tommy Edman. Kopech has always had eye popping stuff and who better to unlock him than the Dodgers? Tommy Edman provides some much needed versatility and reliability that will be instrumental down the stretch.

Winner: St. Louis Cardinals

Acquisitions: Erick Fedde, Tommy Pham, Shawn Armstrong

Losses: Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson

I did not have the Cardinals turning it around after last year’s unmitigated disaster but I have to give credit where credit is due. The Cardinals have played good baseball up to this point and they find themselves firmly in the NL Wild Card race. A couple years ago, maybe losing Dylan Carlson and Tommy Edman would sound catastrophic but in 2024, I think it’s better for both parties that they have a change of scenery. As for what they brought in though, well that’s an absolute home run. Shawn Armstrong is at least a live arm that could come in handy during the dog days of summer. I am on the record being an avid Tommy Pham defender and I could not fathom him being unsigned for as long as he was but eventually the White Sox came to their senses and picked him up. In usual Tommy Pham fashion, he hit and earned himself a ticket out of the South Side. Even at his age, Pham still hits the ball hard and can provide length to an already potent Cardinal offense. As crazy as it sounds, Erick Fedde has come stateside and been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Getting him cheap, with another year of control is an absolute work of art by Cardinals GM John Mozeliak.

Loser: San Diego Padres

Acquisitions: Tanner Scott, Jason Adam, and Martin Perez

Losses: Adam Mazur, Robby Snelling, Graham Pauley, Jay Beshears, Dylan Lesko, Homer Bush, J.D. Gonzalez, and Ronaldys Jimenez

There is truly one AJ Preller, there is just nobody like him. He does deserve ample credit for being a scouting savant and constantly finding talent but it’s a shame he never actually gets to see what they become. Preller will always trade these prospects before he actually gets to see them in a Padres uniform, and this year was no different. I honestly really liked their bullpen heading into the deadline so I saw no reason for them to go selling the farm for bullpen pieces. But, what do you know, Preller went and traded for 2 of the top available pen arms. I don’t hate the idea of a “Superpen” but at the expense of selling the farm? absolutely not. Trading Robby Snelling, a prep arm who was arguably the best pitcher in MiLB last year, on top of intriguing, nearly big league ready prospects in Adam Mazur and Graham Pauley for Tanner Scott is just malpractice in my eyes. There was also no reason to part with Dylan Lesko, one of my favorite pitching prospects in baseball, on top of Homer Bush for Jason Adam. Again, Jason Adam and Tanner Scott make this an elite bullpen, but trading that much for it is exactly why AJ Preller will be out of a job in a few months.

Loser: Los Angeles Angels

Acquisitions: Ryan Zeferjahn, Matthew Lugo, Yeferson Vargas, Niko Kavadas, Samuel Aldegheri and George Klassen

Losses: Carlos Estevez and Luis Garcia

The Angels absolutely butchering the deadline is nothing new, who could forget when they sold the farm for…Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez. They had an opportunity to get a king’s ransom for Shohei Ohtani before he left in a couple months, but no, they decided to go all in just for a puncher’s chance at sneaking into the wild card. Unsurprisingly, they are currently dealing with the consequences of their decisions and will likely be dealing with them for years to come. That aside, you would think they would have learned their lesson about selling at the deadline, but no, THEY MADE THE SAME MISTAKE AGAIN. They had the opportunity to get an absolute haul for veterans like Tyler Anderson, Taylor Ward, Luis Rengifo, Hunter Strickland, and Jose Quijada. All they had to do was learn from their mistakes and accept being terrible for a couple of years in exchange for future success. Instead, they will continue to go through the motions and live in baseball purgatory. I am truly sorry, Angels Fans(If you even exist).

Loser: Houston Astros

Acquisitions: Caleb Ferguson and Yusei Kikuchi

Losses: Kelly Austin, Jake Bloss, Will Wagner and Joey Loperfido

Despite the fact that the Astros have actually been playing great baseball as of late, I remain completely uninspired by GM Dana Brown. He was overly aggressive last deadline and got fleeced by then Mets GM, Billy Eppler. He traded his 2 top prospects in Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford in exchange for a 40 year old Justin Verlander who has hardly pitched this season. This year though, it was even worse. Instead of it being Justin Verlander, it was half a season of Yusei Kikuchi. A historically volatile arm who has been average at best for a large portion of his MLB career. To get Kikuchi, they gave up Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido, and Will Wagner. Bloss has been one of the best pitchers in the minor leagues and has completely skipped AAA because he was so dominant. Joey Loperfido is a top 100 prospect in baseball and will soon graduate as part of Toronto’s young core as they build toward the future. Will Wagner has quietly raked through the minor league ranks and happens to be Billy Wagner’s son. Overall, I like Houston getting aggressive but this? This is just plain old dumb.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

MLB.com

By Jonah Drew

Jesse Winker,OF

Although the Washington Nationals rebuild is really starting to take shape, Jesse Winker just does not fit their timeline. Winker’s stock was at an all time low after last season after he posted a putrid .567 OPS in Milwaukee. It seemed Winker’s days as an everyday big leaguer were dwindling but clearly the Nationals saw something, smartly signing the 30 year old to a 1 year, 1.5 Million Dollar contract. This transaction has turned out about as well as they could have possibly asked for. Winker is currently slashing .263/.381/.434(135 OPS+) with 11 HRs and 14 SB. The always selective Winker is doing just that. His walk rate is at 14.2% and his chase rate is at just 18.5%. Both of which are marks that land him in the top 3 percentile of all of baseball. His success is also backed by his .342 xwOBA, landing him in the 72nd percentile. Winker can absolutely fill in and beef up a lineup in need of some juice at the bottom. The price also should not be too high, I expect it to be a 10-12 level prospect in an average system.

Fits: Mariners, Braves, and Astros

Erick Fedde, RHP

There have been countless projected trade packages for White Sox stars Luis Robert and Jesse Winker, but how about some love for 2023 KBO MVP, Erick Fedde. Who could forget the legendary Erick Fedde bidding war to kick off free agency? The White Sox won the battle and they will reep the rewards in the form of a solid prospect package featuring what will likely be a top 10 guy and a flyer. Fedde has pitched 111.1 innings across 19 starts and is currently sitting at a 2.99 ERA. His peripherals are good enough to make me trust him in the back of a postseason rotation. He has a 3.59 xERA and has been generating soft contact at a well above average clip. His K/BB ratios are about bang average and that combined with his overall reliability would make me happy to hand over a back end top 10 guy if I was a contender. Especially because Fedde comes with multiple years of control.

Fits: Brewers, Dodgers, and Twins

Victor Vodnik, RHP

With all due respect to Mr. Vodnik, I doubt more than about 10 non Rockies fans had ever heard of Victor Vodnik. He debuted for Colorado last season and put simply, his stint was short and not so sweet. Vodnik made just 6 appearances, pitching just 8.2 innings to the tune of an 8.31 ERA. The flashes were always there tho as Vodnik is a pure flamethrower, luckily that raw eye test is actually translating to tangible success. Vodnik has thrown 52.1 Innings out of the Rockies pen, posting a 3.96 ERA with a 3.94 FIP. While 3.96 may not jump off the page, the Coors tax is very much real, that mark translates to a 115 ERA+. Despite his eye popping velocity, Vodnik actually does not rack up the strikeouts(21.2% K%). Vodnik is actually a ground ball specialist, he posts a 90th percentile 53.9% GB% which essentially negates any concerns about his hard hit rate not being where you’d like. As always, trust worthy relievers at are an absolute premium for contending teams and if you can get a guy like Vodnik to be a middle relief type of guy instead of a back end horse like he’s being used in Colorado, that would be an ideal situation.

Fits: Royals, Mets, and Diamondbacks

Tyson Miller, RHP

Despite the Cubs high expectations headed into 2024, all indications are that Jed Hoyer and the Cubs brass are open and willing to sell off pieces that aren’t part of their long term plan. This is in light of their underwhelming first half, compiling a record of 48-53, leaving them 3.5 GB of a weak NL Wild Card race. As for Miller though, he has been one of the better relievers in all of baseball, point blank period. After bouncing around every which way since the 2020 COVID season, he has finally found a home in the windy city. Miller has made 21 appearances in Chicago(9 in Seattle) and he is currently sitting at a 1.59 ERA in those 21 outings. I am a massive believer in Miller for a multitude of analytical points. Miller sits at a 3.12 xERA, with a .215 xBA, and a .228 wOBA. While those are fantastic underlying metrics what really excites me is Miller’s ability to generate whiff at an elite level while not allowing any free passes. Miller is at a 93rd percentile chase rate of 34.3, a 68th percentile 25% K%, and an ungodly 24% IZ Whiff%. He does all of this elite whiff generation while allowing just a 98th percentile, 3.1% BB%. Call me crazy but I would trust Tyson freakin’ Miller to throw high leverage October innings, I am absolutely enamored with this analytical profile.

Fits: Yankees, Orioles, and Mariners

Michael Conforto,OF

Farhan Zaidi is about as unpredictable of an executive as they come but if he doesn’t sell this deadline, I give up trying to get a read on this guy. They are not in a great spot at 48-52 and quite frankly, I don’t see an avenue for this team to make an honest run to a wild card spot and beyond. No, Conforto has not absolutely lit the world on fire but in fairness to him, he is in absolute hell for left handed pull hitters. Conforto currently sits at a .721 OPS with a 106 wRC+ and 10 jacks. Conforto’s underlying data really does suggest that he can help to lengthen a lineup come autumn. Conforto hits the ball hard with a 90 MPH average exit velocity, a 45.3% Hard Hit rate, and a 10.4% Barrel Rate. Put Scooter in a more hitter friendly ball park, specifically for lefties, and I think you see him hit more to his .457 xSLG rather than his .422 SLG.

Fits: Yankees, Cardinals, and Braves

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

@JesseRogersESPN

Spotrac