Diamond Metrics

  • Team Predictions: Brooklyn Nets

    By Jonah Drew

    Nets' Nic Claxton discusses playing through nasal injury; Cam Thomas

    Record: 18-64

    The Brooklyn Nets are a bad bad basketball team, plain and simple. How Nets GM Sean Marks is still employed is beyond me, his mismanagement of the entire KD, Kyrie, and James Harden situation was absolutely a fireable offense. But regardless, I have to give him some credit for this past offseason. The rumor was that the Nets were unwilling to part with Mikal Bridges, which would have been a disaster if you ask me. This turned out to be false, and I actually really like how Marks did in the Bridges trade. Getting that amount of draft capital for a player that frankly, was not all that good for them last year, that’s a good deal. I also like the hiring of former Kings assistant, Jordy Fernandez, assuming Fernandez will bring that current Kings system to Brooklyn. With that out of the way, let’s discuss the monstrosity that is the 2024-2025 Brooklyn Nets. I actually really like what Dennis Schroder did in his short Brooklyn tenure last season. He provided strong perimeter defense while being a 41% 3 point shooter, I’d actually really like to see him dealt at the trade deadline to a win now team. Cam Thomas is widely viewed as the main building block for this Brooklyn rebuild but frankly I just do not see it. Is he a good volume scorer? Yes. But does he actually contribute to winning? Nope. He is prone to just waste possessions on ill advised shots. His defense is also just flat out bad, he often lacks effort and even when he does he is simply not capable of being anything more than a bad point of attack guy. I do not mind the wing tandem of Cam Johnson and Dorian Finney Smith but I do worry about them being over expanded with an offensive load they are not built for, taking away from the role that they actually excel at. This is what happened to Mikal Bridges last season, he was forced to be a #1 option and his defense took a hit because of it. My favorite player on this team is the recently paid Nic Claxton. I believe that the rim running, rim protecting big is extremely undervalued. Exhibit A being the Daniel Gafford, one of the better bigs in that specific role. After he was sent to Dallas, he changed the entire course of their season, even helping them to a finals appearance. The bench of this team is intriguing to say the least. Whatever you get from Ben Simmons at this point is just an added bonus because I do not know anybody with real expectations for him in the year 2024. I do like guys like Jalen Wilson, Dayron Sharpe, and Noah Clowney to provide some youthful exuberance off the pine. Overall though, this team is going to be in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes, they posted bottom ten defense and offense last season and both look to be even worse than last season. This team has all the makings of a 20 win team, but at least it finally looks like they have some direction.

    MVP: Nic Claxton

    This past offseason, Claxton inked a 4 year, 97 Million Dollar deal. This caught many people by suprise, as most NBA fans do not view Claxton as anywhere near a 100 million dollar player. Contrary to popular to belief, I feel that Claxton deserves every penny of that 97 Million. The rim running, defensive anchor big man has become grossly underrated. Claxton is even among the best in hoops in this role. He is in the 98th percentile of BLK/75, he is in the 97th percentile of D-LEBRON, and he is a 95th percentile rim protector. He is among the best defensive bigs in basketball, even earning some DPOY votes this past year. He also provides offensive value in the form of lobs and effiecient rim finishing. The Nets defense will not be great by any stretch, but without Nic Claxton it would be a million times worse.

    DPOY: Cam Johnson

    Full transparency, Cam Johnson is not the best defensive player on this team, that honor would have to go to Nic Claxton but since Claxton is the team MVP, the DPOY title will go to the runner-up, that being Cam Johnson. Johnson is not an elite defender, rather he is in the comfortably above average tier. Johnson took a step down in stocks this past year, posting just 1.1 after beating that total in just steals the year prior. He also has the switchability and length to guard 1-4 reasonably well. Overall, every team could use a 3-D wing like Johnson.

    Breakout: Noah Clowney

    Clowney had a very solid rookie season, putting up 6 points and 4 boards with .7 blocks off the bench, but I believe this is just the beginning for Clowney. Looking into the advanced numbers of Noah Clowney, it is hard not to get excited about what could be. Clowney is a 90th percentile rim finisher, an 86th percentile rim protector, and an 89th percentile rim deterrer. In other words, he is elite around the rim on both ends of the floor. He is also great on putbacks and lobs, adding to his rim pedigree. He can even stretch the floor a bit, he shot 36.4% on 1.4 3 point attempts per game. Clowney is a skilled offensive big with an ability to project the rim, I expect to see a big season from him in 2024-25

    Sources

    Basketball Index

    Basketball Reference

    ESPN

    nba.com

  • Team Predictions: Boston Celtics

    By Jonah Drew

    Celtics beat Mavericks to win NBA Finals, 16th championship

    Record: 63-19

    The 2024 Boston Celtics were unequivocally one of the greatest teams to ever grace the association. Don’t believe me? In the 23-24 NBA season the Boston Celtics posted a Net Rating of 11.6, far and away the best in the league. It doesn’t stop there though, that mark of 11.6 is tied for third in the history of the NBA with the 2017 Golden State Warriors. The only teams ahead of them? The ’96 and ’97 Bulls. So really, I do not want to hear the “Fraudulent Ring” argument anymore, because it’s truly baseless. They simply played who was in front of them, and dominated at that. With that out of the way, let’s discuss the 2025 Boston Celtics, not that they are all that different than the last rendition. The Celtics under Joe Mazzulla have fully embraced the pace and space, get as many 3s up as possible. This system can be risky if the personnel is not the right fit but thankfully for Boston, this roster fits like a glove. Last season, the Celtics were far and away the most efficient 3 point shooting team at 38.9%. They really do not have anybody in their rotation that can not 3 at a solid clip. They were also the best defense in the eastern conference last year, but this should not be suprising at all considering their unhuman defensive personnel. From a point of attack perspective, it simply does not get better than Derrick White and Jrue Holiday. Jrue is a Top 3 guard defender in basketball and White is not far behind. They also have great switchability, I trust both of them to hold their own if switched on to a wing or a big on any given possession. Speaking of switchability, nobody epitomizes it like Jayson Tatum. In the playoffs, Tatum was guarding quality bigs like Dereck Lively and Myles Turner for entire series’ and more than doing a job. Jaylen Brown and Porzingis are also well above average defenders, and when fully engaged can be among the best at their respective positions. This team is immune to mismatch attacking. Their combination of absurd aggregate offensive skill, spacing, and defensive versatility is what made them one of the best squads ever in ’24 and I wouldn’t expect much to change in ’25.

    MVP: Jayson Tatum

    I understand it has become popular to rag on Jayson Tatum, but it has absolutely gone too far. I believe that some of his admittedly corny off court antics after winning the 2024 NBA Finals have began to seep into the way Tatum is discussed as a basketball player. I also believe that he just hit a shooting slump at the wrong time and was still a tremendously impactful player during the homestretch of the Celtics play off run. From a baseline perspective, Tatum averaged 26.9 PPG with 8 Boards and 5 assists to boot. He did this on .471/.376/.833 splits. While obviously these numbers are elite, Tatum’s game goes way behind the Box Score. While I do have questions about his shot diet, there is no denying Tatum is great at getting down hill and finishing. He is a 6’8 freight train who can put the ball on the floor as good as any 4 in the game. His rim finishing efficiency is also among the best in the game. As great as he is offensively, I believe Tatum’s greatest impact actually comes on the defensive end of the floor. Tatum might be the only player in the entire NBA that can actually guard 1-5 at a high level. That versatility makes it so tough for opposing offenses to find favorable matchups, especially with the POA guys he has by his side. There is a take that Jayson Tatum “Does not have an A+ trait” which while I do understand, I would argue that his versatility is an A+ trait and is what makes him a comfortable top 10 guy.

    DPOY: Jrue Holiday

    The Celtics team defense is so elite that you could make a legit argument for any of the 5 starters to earn this honor. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are the best point of attack duo in the league and are completely interchangeable in terms of who’s better but I would slightly lean Jrue because of a few factors. For one, Jrue is better in isolation, where he ranks second in basketball just behind Alex Caruso. Jrue is also in the 98th percentile of defensive versatility, which seems to be a growing theme of this Brad Stevens’ constructed roster. Despite totaling some of the lowest steal numbers of his career, Jrue was an equally impactful defender due to his ball pressure and ability to guard bigger guards and wings. I also believe there is something to be said for his defensive clutch gene, I understand this may be intangible but it feels like whenever the Celtics needed a big defensive play, Jrue was there to make it. Exhibit A of this was in the Eastern Conference Finals when he stripped a red hot Andrew Nembhard to ice the comeback in Game 3. There is a reason every time you ask an NBA Player, “Who is the best defender in the NBA” they a say Jrue Holiday.

    Breakout: Jordan Walsh

    You may know of Jordan Walsh as “The guy with Alopecia” because well, he is pretty recognizable. If you didn’t know, Alopecia is an autoimmune disease that causes you to lose all your hair. But I am not here to talk about that, I am here to pitch on Jordan Walsh being a real back end rotation piece. My college basketball heads know Jordan Walsh, as he was absolutely electric in his singular year at Arkansas before he was selected 36th overall in last year’s draft. Walsh is a tremendous athlete and I believe that is where he could provide value for Boston. Of course the Jays are great athletes but the 2 projected back up wings in Hauser and Scheierman are both average at best athletes so Walsh could provide some much needed burst at the back of the rotation. I also believe that with his ability as a defensive playmaker and the Celtic’s desire to get out and run it is a seamless fit. The most exciting part though is when the Celtics do get out and run, I could see him thriving as a play finisher. Walsh is only 20 with ample room to grow but I really do see a world where he is an impactful rotation piece, at least for stretches of the year.

    Sources

    BBall-Index

    Basketball Reference

    ESPN

    NBA.com

    Sporting News

    Statmuse

  • Who is this Contact Savant Down in South Beach

    What if I told you that the Miami Marlins traded the poster boy for old school, bat to ball hitting, in Luis Arraez, and you could still argue that baseball’s best hit tool resides in South Beach. If say wouldn’t call me crazy, you’d be lying, but it really is true. Xavier Edwards puts bat on ball better then just about any body. What’s wild is the average baseball fan probably doesn’t even know who Xavier Edwards even is. I do not blame them either because who is actually watching Marlins baseball at this point but nonetheless, Xavier Edwards is a joy to watch. But before I bore you with his contact rates, let me introduce you to Mr. Edwards.

    Xavier Edwards was taken in the 1st round all the way back in 2018 by scouting mastermind, AJ Preller and the San Diego Padres out of North Broward in Florida. Edwards got off to a hot start to his pro career, hitting .384 with a 169 wRC+ in 21 rookie ball games. He continued to mash through the lower levels of the padres system, batting .300 all the way through high A. He was starting to gain some traction as a high profile prospect when after the 2019 MiLB season, in usual Preller fashion, the Padres sent him to Tampa with Hunter Renfroe in exchange for Tommy Pham and Jake Cronenworth. Once we got Minor League Baseball back in 2021, Edwards continued to hit for contact, batting .302 with a 113 wRC+ in 79 AA games. AAA was his first real struggle though, posting just a 84 wRC+. This is when his prospect status really fell off, he was viewed as a small, slap hitting 2B with no real potential. The Rays agreed, sending him off to Miami along with J.T. Chargois in exchange for pitchers Santiago Suarez and Marcus Johnson. This trade has turned out to be a massive win for the Marlins as Edwards is doing what he’s doing and JT Chargois was a quality reliever for them and recently earned them a decent prospect haul from Seattle. It is rare you see a Minor Leaguer get moved twice before they even debut, and then go on to have big league success, but here we are.

    So what exactly is Xavier Edwards doing at the big league level, well, let me tell you. Edwards actually debuted at the back end of last season and was not great. He was serviceable enough but nothing truly convincing. Edwards slashed .295/.329/.333 with a 0 HRs in 30 games. Edwards was hitting for average but not really doing anything else, not walking, not hitting for power, or even playing great defense. Coming into 2024, Edwards lost the Starting SS job for a frankly, piss poor Marlins team. After playing some solid ball in AAA, Edwards finally earned the promotion and he has ran with it. Since coming up, he has slashed a ridiculous .350/.435/.427. He is also making a significant impact on the basepaths, swiping 21 bags with easy plus run times. Say what you will about batting average but .350 is unbelievably impressive, especially with the game in the state it is.

    Finally everyone’s favorite part, the analytical piece. Edwards made a tangible adjustment that I believe was the key to his breakout. Though somewhat unconventional for a contact hitter like Edwards, he became selective. In what was a subpar 2023, Edwards was very aggressive. He walked at just a 3.6% rate, a minuscule rate and posted an O-Swing of 33%. 2024 has been a whole different story, Edwards is walking at a 14% clip and is posting an O-Swing of just 18%. That is a mind boggling shift in approach and has helped him to a 146 wRC+, a wild jump from just 81 last season. His analytical profile is as interesting as they come, he hits the ball about as soft as anybody, but is still something of an analytical darling. He doesn’t hit it hard, but he knows how to leverage, his Sweet Spot rate is elite at 37.7%. He also doesn’t swing very hard but has elite bat control, his squared up rate is up there with the best in baseball at 35.1%. Players like Edwards may have been commonplace back in the day but nowadays he is a dime a dozen.

    Sources

    Baseball Reference

    Baseball Savant

    Fangraphs

    MiLB.com

    SB Nation