By Jonah Drew

AL MVP: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

I really not like doing this, I don’t like picking chalk, I don’t like taking such an overwhelming favorite. Every fiber in my being wants to make a frisky prediction like a Wyatt Langford or Jarren Duran, but there is just no possible way to deny the greatness of Aaron Judge. Judge is the best hitter certainly in my 17 year life time, and likely since Barry Bonds during his legendary 5 year run from 2000-2004. It is nearly to impossible to overstate how utterly insane Aaron Judge has been up to this point. The reigning MVP is coming off of his second 10.8 bWAR season with a 222 OPS+ with 58 homeruns. I know this is the nature of the statistic, but it’s crazy when put into words, Aaron Judge was 122% better than the average hitter in 2024, 122 percent!. It shouldn’t have to be said considering going on three seasons running of OPS’ing over 1.000, but nothing about The Judge is flukey. In 2024, he led baseball in the following advanced metrics, xwOBA, xSLG, Average Exit Velocity, Barrel Rate, Hard Hit Rate, and Walk Rate, he is in the 100th percentile on that entire laundry list. Aaron Judge is impossible to pitch to, if you leave it in the zone, he is hit the ball into the stratosphere, hence the absurd batted ball data and the 58 homeruns, and if you nibble and pitch around him, he is happy to take his walk, see the .458 OBP and 19% Walk Rate. Of course, most of Judge’s value comes in the box, but he is no slouch defensively, especially when used correctly. He was overextended in CF last year, but when put in a corner, he has posted above average defensive metrics. Aaron Judge is the greatest hitter I have seen with my own two eyes, it feels like it would take something seismic for Judge to lose out on this honor, but it’s baseball so naturally, something seismic will in fact, happen.

Longshot: Corey Seager, Texas Rangers

AL Cy Young: Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

Prior to Opening Day 2024, the last game that Garrett Crochet started, was all the way back during his time in Knoxville with the Tennessee Volunteers. A year later, his name is being thrown around in Cy Young conversations. So that begs the question, what could this southpaw have done in just one year to yield all this hype? First off, he pitched 146 Innings at a 3.58, with 209 strikeouts. While that is a great line, it doesn’t even begin to show how dominant Crochet was last season. He posted a 2.85 xERA, a 2.69 FIP, and a SIERA of 2.53, all of his ERA estimators have him comfortably sub three. His disfortune can mostly be chalked up to a poor White Sox defense behind him and just plain bad luck. Crochet induced a 45% Groundball Rate, also striking out 35.1% of batters while walking just 5%, an elite ratio. He also utilizes his 6’6, 245 LBS frame well, posting 93rd percentile extension. Crochet is incredibly well rounded, with a situation upgrade, the sky is the limit for him in 2025.

Longshot: Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

AL ROY: Jacob Wilson, Athletics

Jacob Wilson is one the more polished prospects to come through the ranks in quite a while. He legitimately has a 70 grade hit tool, he seldom whiffs and does not chase much at all. He struck out just 4 times in his final season at Grand Canyon University and has not struck out over 11% of the time at a single stop in his minor league career. In 21 A+ games in 2023, he posted a 135 wRC+. This is great, right? Yes, but is the lowest wRC+ of his professional career, excluding his brief big league stint in 2024. On top of having some of the best bat to ball skills in the world, he is an above average defender at a value position in shortstop. Wilson is a blast from the past, in a game where contact quality is prioritized over contact quantity, he is the antithesis.

Longshot: Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Covers.com

Fangraphs

Just Baseball