By Jonah Drew

1. Kansas City Royals: 88-74

2024 was a renaissance of a season for Kansas City, winning 86 games and even winning a wild card series in Baltimore. Prior to this, the Royals had been perpetually in the bottom of the American League since their world championship in 2015. The face of the turnaround has indubitably been Bobby Witt Jr. Formerly the top overall prospect in baseball, Witt posted an absolutely historic season in 2024. He posted an ungodly 9.4 win season, a 171 OPS, and a 30/30 season. He would have been a surefire MVP if Aaron Judge had not posted an equally historic campaign. Another reason I like this lineup is Vinnie Pasquantino, he is very well rounded, balancing quality of contact with quantity of contact as well as anyone in baseball. Although Salvy is polarizing, you know he is going to produce in the power department. Maikel Garcia is one of my favorite breakout picks for a reason. Jonathan India should take advantage of a cavernous Kauffman outfield and pepper the gaps. I do not love this outfield though, I would like to see them get aggressive and make a move for a corner masher at the trade deadline, that would truly make this offense potent in a playoff setting. The rotation is a major strength of this team, Cole Ragans has turned himself into a bonafide ace since coming over from Texas, he legitimately has a chance to compete for a Cy Young in 2025. Seth Lugo broke out massively in 2024, he posted a 3.00 ERA in 2024 and proved he can more than handle a starters workload, earning 2nd place Cy Young honors. Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen are both solid innings eaters who provide some comfort and reliability. Kris Bubic is another very popular breakout pick as he was starting to hit his stride before he got the hammer in 2023. The bullpen is another strength of this roster. Free agent acquisition for Philly, Carlos Estevez should sure up the back end of this bullpen and rack up 20+ saves. Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey are both quality relievers with violent stuff. The back end of this bullpen has been bolstered significantly in the last 12 months with the recent offseason and deadline transactions. This roster is being overlooked, they will have a quality arm on the mound eternally, and they also have one of the 3 best players in baseball with exciting bats to boot, watch out for Kansas City to continue their ascension in 2025.

2. Cleveland Guardians: 85-77

The Guardians had a fantastic season in 2024 season, winning 92 games and reaching an ALCS before falling in five to the New York Yankees. I have to say though, this season felt like a big of an overachievement. While I give them a lot of credit for winning so consistently like they did, I have to question, is this winning formula sustainable? I fear the answer is no. Listen, they didn’t win 92 games off of pure luck, but I don’t know if they will be a consistent heavy hitter in the American League. They heavily relied on the most inconsistent position group in all of sports: The Bullpen. The Cleveland Guardians bullpen was historically good, led by Emmanuel Clase, and helped by historic campaigns from Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, Eli Morgan, and Erik Sabrowski. Now while these guys are good relievers with strong long terms outlooks, I think they all collectively came together to have outlier seasons which I just can’t see happening again. I do expect this bullpen to be strong again, but there I foresee some regression to the mean. As for the starting rotation, that is where things could get really dicey. This team lacks an ace, Tanner Bibee is their one and he is a solid arm but none of his metrics indicate he is capable of competing aces around the league. Gavin Williams has great stuff and a deep five pitch mix, I do think he takes the leap. I do not see it with Ben Lively, he does not generate whiff and he and he allows hard contact, not exactly a recipe for success. Logan Allen and Luis Ortiz are fine back end arms, but nothing to get excited about. For a team that relies on run prevention to win games, this rotation is a slight bit underwhelming, even if they will get Shane Bieber back at some point. The lineup is solid, but it does not pop. Jose Ramirez is going to continue to do Jose Ramirez things, that being flirting with 30/30 year in and year out, and posting 5+ win seasons. Steven Kwan among the best contact hitters in the game, posting a 128 OPS+ last year combined with a dazzling glove in the outfield. The first base tandem is rock solid, Kyle Manzardo can flat out hit and Carlos Santana is a premier first base defender and is good for an above average bat. Cleveland has a collective of young guys who can really defend but are questionable at the dish. Will Brennan, Gabriel Arias, and Brayan Rocchio fit this mold and the Guardians feel comfortable rolling them out on Opening Day. This falls in line with everything this organization believes, run prevention over run production. While I have my gripes about the pitching of this team and the over reliance on the bullpen, they will likely end up in the top 7 in team ERA because that’s just how it goes in Cleveland, especially with the elite defense behind them.

3. Minnesota Twins: 81-81

On paper, I would admit this is the most talented team in this division as I believe it has been for the past couple of years. Despite this, they have struggled to grab a consistent stronghold on the AL Central, winning it once since Covid. Last year, they were a middling 82-80 and weren’t even in postseason contention by year’s end. A common denominator of the shortcomings has been health or lack thereof. Carlos Correa was superb in his limited time last year, posting a .905 OPS with good defense, but he only played 86 games, limiting his overall value. I hate to say it but, healthy Byron Buxton doesn’t exist, he is pure electricity when healthy but he hasn’t had a relatively healthy season since 2017. The twins have a plethora of young bats to get excited about, Matt Wallner posted a 149 OPS+ last year, both Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach were both comfortably above average hitters last years, and while Eduord Julien struggled badly in 2024, he showed flashes of brilliance in 2023 and makes elite swing decisions for a young hitter. The loss of Carlos Santana will hurt, but the projection models seem to love Ty France so the hope is that he can supplement his production. As I said, the lineup sounds great on paper but if history is any indication, the lineup might look a lot different in a few months. The frontline of the Twins rotation is solid, Pablo Lopez is excellent and Joe Ryan has the stuff to hang with the best in baseball. Bailey Ober has been uber consistent and is all but a guarantee to give Minnesota 160+ Innings at a sub 4 ERA. The back end begs questions from me, Simeon Woods Richardson has a lot of inherent variability and Chris Paddack is just plain bad. I would like to see some of the young prospect David Festa. This bullpen is among the best in baseball, Jhoan Duran may have the best stuff in the history of the sport, nobody has ever thrown 100 MPH splitters, with the option to gas 104 whenever. Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, and Jorge Alcala are all capable of closing out games, yet due to the quality of this stable, they are demoted to tertiary roles. Based on this, it may be confusing that I only have this team winning 81 games, and I get it, because quite frankly the Twins confuse me too.

4. Detroit Tigers: 79-83

2024 was a year of destiny in the motor city. The Tigers went into the 2024 season with basically zero outsider expectations of serious winning. I will brag a little bit and put out there that I correctly predicted this Tigers team to make the Postseason but it was not widely projected. Coming off of an ALDS berth, expectations are beginning to mount. However, I do not love this Tigers roster as much as the general public does. Most of my concerns lie with the lineup and the lack of thump that it contains. It is led by two young up and comers in Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter. Greene was fantastic, he posted a 133 OPS+ and a 5.4 WAR, he is the offensive face of this rebuild. Kerry Carpenter only faces right handers, but he is elite at doing just that, in totality he posted a .932 OPS, pretty dang good. Colt Keith is a former top prospects who had a strong second half and could take a step up. Speaking of former top prospects, former number one overall pick Spencer Torkelson seems to be headed for make or break season on his career in Detroit. Gleyber Torres was the free agent headliner and overall I like the move, for as much slack he gets, he can really hit. There are complementary pieces with upside, but overall this lineup is rather underwhelming outside of Greene and Carpenter. The face of this organization is currently Tarik Skubal. The reigning Cy Young winner is the best pitcher in baseball and is a complete luxury for a team that lacks starting pitching outside of him. By the end of 2024, the Tigers were rolling out a whopping two man rotation of Tarik Skubal and Keider Montero. Montero was clutch down the stretch but I do believe he is due for some regression. Jack Flaherty was a massive addition, he was in the high 20s in K% and is a legit second starter. Reese Olson has quietly tallied up a significant number of innings at a Low 4s ERA, he has become a reliable mid rotation guy. Jackson Jobe, is a fire baller prospect who has the stuff to be fantastic right away. This rotation is the Tigers’ strong suit but it remains to be seen how well it will hold up in today’s landscape. The bullpen is also very strong, spearheaded by Foley and Brieske, bullpen chaos isn’t going anywhere. This team can pitch, but can they score, that remains the question.

5. Chicago White Sox: 60-102

To say that 2024 was a disastrous season for the White Sox would be an understatement. The White Sox were up there with the worst squads in the history of the sport last season, finishing with a putrid 41-121 record, the worst in modern baseball history. Will the White Sox pull off the most miraculous turnaround in the history of baseball? Likely not. However, I do not believe that they will be the worst team of all time again. Luis Robert Jr. seemed disinterested and it resulted in a down year to the tune of an 87 wRC+. Miguel Vargas and Andrew Vaughn are notable bats but outside of those two there is not much to get excited about. I will say though, Lenyn Sosa has some encouraging peripheral metrics that lead me to believe a breakout could be in store for him. Although this lineup will likely be mediocre, I expect it to be an improvement from last year’s version. The pitching is where I really worry about how this team will win games in 2025. Jonathan Cannon is my favorite arm but he is nothing more than a back end guy to me. Martin Perez can eat innings but that’s about it. Outside of those too, I am not sure if there is another major league caliber starter on this roster. I also don’t see how this bullpen can maintain leads if they can manage to get them. It’s looking bleak on the South Side of Chicago, no way around it.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs