By Joe Browne

1. Milwaukee Brewers: 90-72

Death, taxes and the Milwaukee Brewers always finding a way to stay on top in this division. Last year, they traded Corbin Burnes and got immediately counted out and written off. They responded by winning 93 games and dominating this division for the entire season. This year, Milwaukee dealt star closer Devin Williams to the Yankees and yet they are still touted for a first place finish. The top of the order with Chourio, Yelich and Contreras is going to be just about as good as it gets. The supporting cast of Turang, Mitchell, Frelick and Hoskins will be able to pull their weight. The main strength of this club is going to be the defense. There are zero projected starters who are bad defenders. In fact, a majority of those same projected starters are actually elite defensively. This will be especially helpful when groundball guys such as Quintana, Koenig, Uribe, Peguro and Ashby are on the hill. Milwaukee has been top five in team ERA 3 out of the last 4 seasons despite never having the shiniest staff on paper. Once again, on paper this pitching staff lacks big names but somehow they always find a way to make it work. This is an improved division in 2025 but I still see it challenging for one of these other teams to leapfrog Milwaukee and take the top spot.

2. Chicago Cubs: 87-75

This Cubs team has improved, but are still a tier below the Brewers. The lineup is similar to the Brewers in the sense that their top of the order is very strong. Kyle Tucker will elevate this lineup to a level we have not seen them reach in a while. The impact he is going to bring is being severely underestimated. He was playing on an MVP level prior to injury in Houston last year.  Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ were both excellent at the plate last year and that production should carry over. Outside of these three at the top, the rest of the group is pretty average offensively. Top prospect Matt Shaw won the third base job this spring and he will join Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner in what will be a very strong defensive infield. Shota Imanaga was spectacular from the moment he stepped on a big league mound last season. He is an outlier in today’s game, despite not having an overpowering fastball he still has found success on the mound. Fellow southpaw Justin Steele will form a formidable 1-2 punch with Imanaga atop this Cubs rotation. Outside of those two, the rest of the staff should be solid. Ryan Pressly was acquired to be the new closer in another notable deal made with Houston this offseason. My doubts lie with this organization’s recent shortcomings in pitching developments. Some teams seem to always get the best out of their arms and the Cubs are not one of those teams. Ultimately, that is what is going to separate the Cubs from the Brewers. This team has improved but still lacks the completeness to top the Brewers and take this division crown.

3. Cincinnati Reds: 79-83

Cincinnati had a very complacent offseason in a window where they should be looking to improve their roster. Elly De La Cruz was both electric and successful last season blasting 25 homers and swiping 67 bags. All while playing elite defense, posting 15 OAA at shortstop. Matt McLain who missed all of last season will join Elly atop the lineup. His absence was certainly felt last year, Cincinnati’s offense saw a major dip in production from 2023 to 2024. Cincinnati dealt Jonathan India to Kansas City and later replaced him with former-Dodger Gavin Lux. That is a downgrade at second base. India was dealt for right hander Brady Singer whose underlying numbers suggest he is due for serious regression. Hunter Greene finally had his breakout season last year and solidified himself as the ace of this rotation. Still only 25 years old, Greene looks primed for a dominant prime in the next few seasons. The rest of the staff is not anything to write home about. This club has talent but a mediocre lineup at best and subpar pitching staff is not going to be a recipe for success in a stacked National League.

4. St. Louis Cardinals: 77-85

The Cardinals have dug themselves into a deep hole following an offseason in which they made virtually zero moves. No trades and the lone signing being veteran reliever Phil Maton. St. Louis is going to be a team to watch when the trade deadline rolls around to see who they are going to deal away. It’s clear Nolan Arenado’s best days are in the past and his no-trade clause fiasco this offseason was a bad look. Young shortstop Masyn Winn will be exciting to watch and hopefully he will take another leap forward this season. This rotation lacks firepower with the likes of Gray, Mikolas and Fedde. These guys are not bad but also are not great. By no means is this staff as a whole going to take the Cardinals completely out of games but also won’t keep them in games every night. This team is not going to be a threat in this division and in the grander scheme of things they won’t be a threat in the National League. Look for this roster to be very depleted following the trade deadline. Anyone who can be traded should be it is time to rebuild in St. Louis.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates: 72-90

It is pitiful that the Pirates are slated to finish dead last in this weaker division. They have arguably the best pitcher on the planet on their roster in Paul Skenes. At just 22 years old, Skenes enters 2025 as the betting favorite to take home the Cy Young award. It is going to be intriguing to see how many wins Skenes can will this Pirates team to this season. Reasoning being, this lineup is a bottom three unit in all of baseball. There are no threats outside of Bryan Reynolds and maybe O’Neil Cruz. Jared Jones, who like Skenes is a great young arm atop this rotation, is going to start the season on the shelf with some elbow problems. Skenes and Jones, when healthy, are really the only players on this roster worth paying attention to. In the grand scheme of things, the Pirates have five seasons including this one before Paul Skenes is a free agent. Meaning that they have four years left to put a competent team around Skenes before he goes elsewhere. I say four years rather than five because this team is going to be awful in 2025 so count this year out. Despite that, every single time Skenes toes the slab in 2025 it is going to have main event status.

Sources:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

FanGraphs

MLB.com

Spotrac