By Joe Browne

1. Atlanta Braves: 96-66

The Braves streak of six consecutive first place finishes in this division was snapped last year. The reason for this was actually quite simple: Atlanta’s best position player and best pitcher were both on the shelf virtually the entire season after suffering devastating injuries. Meanwhile the hitters that did manage to stay on the field massively underperformed. It was the starting rotation that kept the Braves afloat all season. Chris Sale won the National League Cy Young all while Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Schwellenbach pitched exceptionally alongside him. All of this culminated in a two game beat down by the Padres in the Wild Card. Now it’s time to throw last season out of the window and move on to bigger and better for 2025. Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider, the aforementioned players that got hurt early on in 2024 are both on track to probably miss the first month of 2025. When Acuna returns he will be back in his usual lead-off spot atop Atlanta’s order. Looking back at how Acuna came off the first ACL tear in the 2022 season is a good measurement for what kind of production we could see this year. He had a fine year in 2022, but undoubtedly the worst of his major league career. Do not expect a MVP caliber season from Acuna in 2025, but expect very solid production despite that. Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Michael Harris II are all due for major bouncebacks. All three of them had great batted ball data last season despite the face numbers to back it up. The expected return to form of those three sluggers is going to pay major dividends for this team. On top of that, Jurckison Profar, who is coming off a career year, gets added to this group. He slashed .280/.380/.459 with 24 homers across 158 games with San Diego a season ago. His addition flew under the radar, but at still just 32 years old Profar is going to be a nice shot in the arm for this group. Also, Marcell Ozuna has hit 79 homers in the last two years combined and had the best season of his career in 2024. If you can’t already tell, this lineup is stupid good. However, the lower third may be a little shaky. Atlanta will be without starting catcher Sean Murphy for a significant amount of time to start the year which has them looking at either Chadwick Tromp or top prospect Drake Baldwin behind the dish to begin the year. While Baldwin is yet to debut, his numbers at AAA Gwinnett were very good last season. Subsequently, his debut will have plenty of eyes on it. Also, the overall depth of this lineup is another problem. Outside of Bryan De La Cruz the projected bench unit does not comprise many hitters with legit upside. Another unfortunate injury here or there would really hinder this Atlanta offense. Overall, this lineup is likely to be a likely top five group in the game this season. The rotation took a hit this winter by losing Max Fried to the Yankees. Despite that, it still tracks to be one of the best in the game again this season. Sale, Strider, Schwellenbach and Lopez are locked in as the top four, likely followed by Grant Holmes. Both Holmes and Schwellenbach are guys I am personally high on and believe will turn in great seasons for Altanta. This is the kind of rotation that is built for October and you have to think Alex Anthopoulos thinks the exact same when he looks at the unit he has put together. The bullpen will be spearheaded by Raisel Iglesias once again. Atlanta has always found a way to consistently put together a rock solid bullpen year after year and expectation is that 2025 will be no different. A lineup due for a major overall bounceback paired with a similar pitching staff to the one that led the majors in strikeouts a season ago is the recipe for success in Atlanta’s seventh NL East crown in eight years.

2. New York Mets: 92-70

OMG! What a fun ride last season’s Mets team was. From a 22-33 start to a 89-73 finish followed by a magical run all the way to game six of the NLCS. It was the most postseason success New York has seen since the 2015 National League championship and  a run that nobody saw coming. The Mets move into 2025 with heightened expectations and some new faces in the clubhouse. The most notable and richest of those new faces is Juan Soto, New York’s 26 year-old 765 million dollar man. Soto needs no introduction; what he has proven in his first seven seasons in the show is unprecedented for someone of his age. Quite frankly, I for one think most people are overlooking his addition to this club. His presence completely changes the outlook on this lineup and the expectations for this offense as a whole. Soto will be joined atop this New York order by last year’s NL MVP runner up in Fransisco Lindor. It would be hard to find a player in recent history who came through in big spots time after time after time in the way Lindor did in 2024. After a long free agent fiasco Pete Alonso eventually returned to the Flushing in February. The slugger comes off a down-year in 2024 which can be chalked up to the pressure he felt playing on an expiring contract. Still, what we consider to be a down-year in Alonso standards is 34 homers and a 122 wRC+. A big year should be expected out of Pete, the contract pressure won’t be as prominent this time around. Especially because he is zeroing in on the all-time club homerun record. The top three of Lindor, Soto and Alonso will be joined by the likes of Mark Vientos and Brandon Nimmo. Vientos burst onto the scene last year in both the regular and postseason. Another guy, like Lindor, who seemed to come up clutch time after time. He quickly showed everyone he is legit after many doubted his game would translate against big league pitching. Nimmo was inconsistent going through some great hot stretches at times but also some ice cold slumps. Consistency is the key for Nimmo this year but based on what we have seen in the past when he is right, he is a huge impact player for this team. The Mets 1-5 is going to be ready to go toe-to-toe with the very best in the game. The rest of the lineup will be solid but nothing to really write home about. Both center field and second base are likely platoon situations and Jesse Winker and Starling Marte will share reps as the DH. Behind the dish was going to be former top prospect Fransico Alavrez prior to his left hand injury on Saturday. Now, New York looks to veteran Luis Torrens to hold the position down until Alvarez’ eventual return around after the first quarter of the season. Many fans acknowledge that New York’s lineup is a threat but say they will not amount to anything because of the starting rotation. I beg to differ that consensus opinion that has formed among baseball fans nationwide. Off the bat, New York will be without workhorse Sean Manaea and new addition Frankie Montas to start the season. Montas will be out for a significant chunk of the season but the hope with Manea is he will be good to go a few weeks into the season. Manaea was exceptional down the stretch and into the postseason last year. He proved himself in Queens after looking lost in previous stops prior to 2024. Kodai Senga only tossed 5.1 regular season innings in 2024 which has quickly led to many forgetting his remarkable 2023 rookie campaign. He is a big time impact arm for this club if he is able to stay healthy. David Peterson was one of the most underrated arms in all of baseball last year and exceeded everyone’s expectations. Admittley, the underlying numbers were not great and Peterson is due for regression but will still be a solid rotational southpaw. Then the wild card of the whole group is former Yankee closer turned starter Clay Holmes. Holmes has not started a game since his 2018 rookie season with the Pirates. He has looked absolutely dominant so far in spring training posting a 0.00 ERA striking out 13 across 9.2 innings. The stuff is never in doubt for Holmes but a question mark arises over how many innings he will be able to give the Mets in this starting role. That question of innings is unfortunately a recurring one when it comes to this rotation. Solid depth is in place with the likes of Megill, Blackburn and Canning. Also, top prospect Brandon Sproat will be waiting in the wings if a mid-season call up is in order. The pitching staff is rounded out by a bullpen that looks as strong on paper as I have ever seen for the Mets entering a season. It is built around Edwin Diaz who was solid coming off his gruesome knee injury he suffered prior to 2023. Guys like newcomer A.J. Minter and returners in Butto, Nunez, Garrett and Stanek will hopefully build a solid bridge to Diaz’s ninth inning. Be on the lookout for another spring training standout in Max Kranick. Kranick, like Holmes, has great stuff but dealt with a major injury last year that kept him off the mound. However, David Stearns has a heck of a lot of faith in him which is evident by the fact Kranick was active on New York’s playoff rosters last season. Though he never saw in game action, Kranick is another guy to be on the lookout for this season. All and all, this team projects to have a top 5 lineup and middle of the pack pitching staff. The lack of a true ace pitcher hurts the Mets but they have the pieces in place to make another run despite it. If all goes to plan, this team will battle with Atlanta and Philly all season long for this NL East crown.

3. Philadelphia Phillies: 89-73

In 2024 the Phillies captured their first NL East crown since the 2011 season winning 95 games in the process. Philly never really seemed to have had serious competition within the division. Due to the fact they got off to a scorching hot first half and dusted both the Braves and Mets. This season, I slot Philly to slide down into a third place finish. The lack of competition for first in this division last year was alarming. Philly played significantly worse in the second half of the season and were then decisively beat by the Mets in the NLDS. The projected lineup is very familiar to fans due to the fact it has been virtually the same for three straight seasons now. Schwarber, Turner and Harper at the top of this lineup are staples but the rest of the group is questionable. Both Realmuto and Castellanos looked as if their best days were behind them in 2024. Meanwhile, Bohm and Stott were both inconsistent season long.. Outside of the minor addition of  former-Twin Max Kepler, Philly’s lineup is status quo from the last two seasons. While Atlanta and New York both made improvements to their lineup, Philly did not and in a division as competitive as this one that is something that is going to hurt them. Transitioning into something that will help Philly, that being their starting pitching. They have without a doubt put together the best starting rotation in this division and overall one of the best in baseball. Philly has struggled in the last two seasons to find someone competent to be the fifth guy behind  the four headed monster of Wheeler, Nola, Suarez and Sanchez. They acquired Jesus Luzardo from Miami back in December to fill that gap as their fifth guy. Luzardo has struggled with injury from time to time but overall had a very solid career as a Marlin. He is the perfect guy to round out this rotation and was one of the most under the radar great moves made this offseason. While the Braves and Mets lineups have more firepower, the Phillies rotation is going to be able to weather those storms. A remade bullpen is also on deck for Philly in 2025. Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez departed in free agency, two guys who were prominent pieces in Philly’s backend last season. Jordan Romano is the new closer in town and if healthy could be very good. Toronto let Romano go after an injury-shortened but brutal 2024 season. He has proved to be elite in the past and it is to be seen whether or not he can regain that form in 2025. All and all this team is still good and will be a projected wild card in the National League. Despite the strength of the rotation the lack of change in the Philly lineup is alarming. Dave Dombroski is going to quickly regret sitting on his hands when Philly finds themselves a level below the Braves and Mets in 2025. 

4. Washington Nationals: 77-85

2025 brings the most excitement for the Nationals that we have seen in the past few years. The labor of this long rebuild is beginning to bear fruit. Dylan Crews and James Wood are both gearing up for their first full big league seasons. Crews and Woods both showed a ton of promise in their big league stints last season. Expectations are going to be sky high for both and rightfully so based off of the pedigree they built as prospects. Washington brought back Josh Bell and traded for Nate Lowe this winter. I really like both moves but especially Lowe who was quietly one of most offensively consistent first baseman for the last few years in Arlington. CJ Abrams was an all star in 2024 and put together his first successful season as a big leaguer. The gambling fiasco that took place at the end of last season was a dark cloud over an overall bright season from Abrams. Here’s to hoping that unprofessional and foolish incidents like that are going to be put behind this budding star in the future. Also, be on the lookout for breakout candidates in Jacob Young and Luis Garcia Jr. Young is going to play elite defense in center and steal 30+ bases in 2025. The rotation contains young and exciting arms with the likes of Gore, Irvin and Parker. All three made improvements last season and look to take yet another leap in this upcoming 2025 season. The addition by subtraction that comes with Patrick Corbin’s contract finally coming to an end is going to be big for this team. So long the days of a pretty much guaranteed loss every fifth day.  The Nationals are slowly but surely inching closer and closer to competing in this division once again. I like to view this season as a stepping stone into consistent winning seasons starting in 2026.

5. Miami Marlins: 56-106

Somehow Miami is rebuilding but seems to just get consistently worse and worse. The Marlins outlook heading into 2025 is extremely bleak. Miami lost 100 games last year after making the postseason in 2023. This offense very well might be the worst in all of baseball this year. Outside of Xavier Edwards and Connor Norby, it’s a total crapshoot. Edwards came out of nowhere last year and was a big surprise. He proved that he is a more than capable major leaguer. Norby was acquired from Baltimore at the deadline in the Trevor Rogers deal. He was blocked in Baltimore’s crowded infield so he was shipped off to South Beach. Norby has a ton of potential and if everything goes according to plan should be Miami’s best hitter this season. The rotation gets a huge boost with the return of Sandy Alcantara. Sadly for Marlins fans before the former Cy Young winner has even thrown a pitch this year every opposing team is vying for his services via the trade market. A productive and healthy first half from Alcantara will almost guarantee a trade elsewhere at the deadline. He is joined by former top prospects in Edward Cabrera and Max Meyer. Two guys who at one time both looked primed to be impact players in the majors. So far, that has not been the case for both Cabrera and Meyer. It is not a lack of talent with these two but rather a lack of production in the majors to warrant high rise. This roster truly has little to no upside and is going to contain lineups full of players nobody has ever heard of. It’s a sad reality but this is what Miami Marlins baseball is. Little to no spending on the free agent market and poor player development on homegrown talent. It is going to be yet another long 162 game marathon in Miami.

Sources:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

FanGraphs