By Jonah Drew

1. Boston Red Sox: 94-68

The Red Sox have not lived up to their long standing standard of regular season excellence in the past 3 years, but last year was the first year that you began to see signs of growth toward a winning product. In ’22 and ’23, the Red Sox posted eerily similar, yet equally embarrassing, 78 win, last in the AL East campaigns. In 2024, things began to look better for Boston, reaching the .500 plateau and finishing 3rd in the division. I don’t think the .500 record adequately represents the smashing success that the season was for the Red Sox as the vision started to become crystal clear for what a successful club up in Beantown could look like in 2025. It starts with the breakout of Jarren Duran, who posted a 9 win season out of almost nowhere. Combined, with the tremendous rookie campaigns from both Ceddane Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, the Red Sox may have found 3 cornerstones last year alone. One of the main splashes of the entire off-season was when the Red Sox broke the bank and signed Alex Bregman to a 3 year, 120 million dollar deal. A top 3 of Duran, Bregman, Devers is absolutely one of the scarier trios in the game. This lineup is potent, especially at the top. The pitching side has been a struggle in years past but ever since dubbed pitching savant, Craig Breslow took over this staff has been on the up and up. Tanner Houck took a major leap last season, even earning himself All Star honors. The real excitement though comes from this offseason, where they added Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler to the equation. In his first season as a big league starter, the southpaw posted a 3.58 ERA in 32 starts, with peripherals that have him closer to 2.8. Walker Buehler had a tough regular season, but he showed flashes of his former self in the Postseason. Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello are also back end arms that have potential to boast frontline numbers. My only concern with this Red Sox roster is the bullpen, but they do have arms who have proven that they can hold it down in leverage innings such as Liam Hendriks and Aroldis Chapman. This roster is supremely talented at the top and if things go well, it’s possible that this could turn out to be the most complete roster in the American League.

2. Baltimore Orioles: 92-70

It feels like some of the allure of the Baltimore Orioles has worn off just a bit, but I’m still a believer. A couple of years ago, when the Orioles finally escaped the cellar, all we could talk about was the youthful exuberance of this team with their big league success and historically good farm system. Now that these guys are beginning to develop into high quality major leaguers, I don’t see any reason why this team can’t compete for a division title. For Baltimore, it all starts with the lineup and who better to lead off with than Gunnar Henderson. He posted an unreal 9 win season as just a 23 year old in what was an MVP caliber season in most years. Beyond Gunnar, this lineup is riducoulously deep. Young studs like Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, Ryan Mountcastle, Colton Cowser, and Heston Kjerstad could make this lineup scary from Gunnar leading off to the 9 hole. Jackson Holliday is the real X-Factor in this lineup, the former #1 prospect has struggled in limited Big League action but clearly has star potential. I also like veterans like Cedric Mullins, Tyler O’Neill, Ryan O’Hearn, and Gary Sanchez. The starting rotation is where it could get a bit scary though, The front 2 of Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez is not bad, but it could certainly benefit from having the services of Corbin Burnes. The back end is where my real worries lie though, Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, and Tomoyuko Sugano do not instill confidence in me. Morton is on the wrong side of 40 and both Kremer and Sugano have lackluster stuff to say least. The bullpen on the other hand, could help buoy this pitching staff. Led by the mountain, Felix Batista and backed up by a combination of Yennier Cano, Cionel Perez, Keegan Akin, Andrew Kittredge, and Seranthony Dominguez, all of which have potential to be lights out. The youth of this roster is beginning to hit there stride and that could be frightening for their AL East companions.

3. Tampa Bay Rays: 86-76

The Rays won 80 games in 2024, this was the first time that they did not break the .500 mark since 2017. In the past decade or so, the Tampa Bay Rays have been the gold standard for small market teams outperforming their payroll and getting creative in order to sustain success. Many believe that the Rays magic is starting to wear off, but I am willing to go out on a limb and say that last year was a fluke and can largely be accredited to unfortunate injuries to Brandon Lowe and damn near every single member of the pitching staff. This team reminds of the 2023 Rays team that got off to a white hot start and ended up winning 99 ball games. As is what has become the usual, the strength of this squad is on the pitching side. Assuming health, which is admittedly a risky bet, this starting rotations has the looks of one of the best in baseball. Shane McLanahan is a bonafide stud, in his last healthy season he posted a 2.54 ERA with 11 K/9. Drew Rasmussen was just beginning to push into a new caliber of pitcher before he got the hammer, watch out for him to take a leap now that he is back. There is a clump of arms after Rasmussen that have as much potential as anyone but also have their pitfalls. Taj Bradley was the top pitching prospect in baseball not too long ago and he turned in a solid season last year. Shane Baz has been a myth to this point but he is now healthy and has some of the most electric stuff in the game. Zack Littell is actually a breath of fresh air because he provides much needed stability. In fact, he was actually the Rays bWAR leader in 2024. The bullpen is also a strength of this roster, shocker! Pete Fairbanks is a shut down closer as he saved 23 games in 2024. Edwin Uceta came out of absolutely nowhere, pitching to a 1.51 ERA and turning himself into a premier reliever. Garrett Cleavinger and Mason Montgomery are southpaws who have some fun stuff, particularly Montgomery, who has seen an uptick since transitioning to the pen. Is anyone suprised that the Rays have created a super pen out of relatively unknown guys? I sure as hell am not. The Lineup has more questions to be drawn, although I’m still a believer. Yandy Diaz did not perform to his standard last year but he posted a 157 OPS+ and a 142 OPS+ in the previous two years. Brandon Lowe is a tremendous slugging middle infielder who has shown he can do it. Junior Caminero has potential to be one of the best players in all of baseball, that is not being hyperbolic. Christopher Morel was my favorite break out prediction among hitters, he oozes swagger and I expect the Rays to get every last talent molecule out of him. The newcomer Danny Jansen and Josh Lowe are both proven vets who will likely be in the 105 wRC+ range and will field their position. They also possess two of my favorite prospects in all of baseball in Chandler SImpson and Curtis Mead, both of whom have had an A+ spring trainings and are capable of impacting winning as soon as opening day. This team is talented and if I have learned one thing in my 17 years of life, it’s that you should always trust the Rays.

4. New York Yankees: 84-78

As per usual, the Yankees have been in the center of the headlines a whole lot this offseason, and not always for good things. Firstly, they were in the thick of the Juan Soto saga before their crosstown rival Mets landed him for the next 15 years. This naturally sparked controversy as the Yankees status as “big brother” was brought into question. In response, they went on to bring in some big names like Max Fried, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, and Devin Williams. While these names hold value, I question the actual production they will yield, Goldschmidt and Bellinger in particular. Most recently though, we learned that Gerrit Cole is dealing with an elbow issue and could be headed for the dreaded Tommy John surgery. Now to the collective units, starting with the lineup. The Yankees have the luxury of having a player in the midst of an all time peak in Aaron Judge. Coming off of an 11 win, MVP season, there should be zero doubt as to what you’re going to get from Aaron Judge. The question is though, with the subtraction of Soto, who is going to step up as the Robin to Judge’s Batman. As I Iterated earlier, I don’t trust the 2 veteran newcomers in Goldschmidt and Bellinger. Jazz is the most likely candidate, he posted a 130 OPS+ in pinstripes last year but he has not showed a sustained ability to stay on the field. They host a cast of young players who have flashed moments of brilliance but have struggled have success across a 162 game sample size. Guys like Anthony Volpe, Jasson Dominguez, Ben Rice, and Oswaldo Cabrera are all slated to play virtually every day and that leaves a lot of grey area. I have serious doubts regarding this lineup outside of Judge. The pitching side is a bit more exciting, even with a potential injury hanging over Gerrit Cole. Max Fried is a legitimate ace, posting a 3.25 ERA in 2024 and perpetually sitting in the low 3s and even dipping into the mid 2s. The middle of the rotation could get a bit dicey if Cole were to miss significant time. Carlos Rodon and Marcus Stroman have been pretty volatile both on and off the mound, but when they have it going they can be front line caliber pitchers. Will Warren is a notable prospect, he has an enticing pitch mix and the Yankees have shown an ability mold and develop arms in order to help them reach their full potential. It is noteworthy though, with Luis Gil missing time, the depth of this rotation is greatly depleted and if any of their current 5 were to go down or fault in any way, they are running out of places to turn. The Yankees’ bullpen has been a consistent strength of their’s for years now and I don’t expect that to change in 2025. Seldom the Pete Alonso incident, Devin Williams was largely unhittable this year, just as he has been for the past half decade. Luke Weaver took a leap out of nowhere last year, posting a 2.89 ERA and even earning the full time closer role by the end of the year. They also have a slew of middle relief guys who I whole heatedly trust to get me 3 outs if need be. The story of this Yankees roster is volatility, they have former top prospects, Cy Young contenders, and even multiple former MVPs, if these play up to their 100th percentile outcomes, this team could be a force to be reckon with, but if not it could turn out to be a dud of a season.

5. Toronto Blue Jays: 72-90

I feel strongly that it is time to pull the plug on the plug on the Ross Atkins and John Schnieder era up north. Ross Atkins has made countless questionable decisions that have cost this franchise gravely. He also has struggled to land the cream of the crop free agents, although that can be at least partly attributed to the unattractive destination that is Toronto, Canada. This team has been on a steady decline and I expect that to continue into 2025. This lineup is pretty uninspiring in totality, sure they have Vladimir Guerrero Jr.(for now) but outside of him and maybe Anthony Santander, who do you trust to give you even a 115 wRC+. Bo Bichette was unbelievably dissapointing in 2025 and there is a decent chance that’s just who he is now. George Springer’s age has really begin to show and I think the worst is yet to come for him. I do like the young pieces they got in the Yusei Kikuchi deal in Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner. I would not be shocked if Will Wagner is the third most productive bat in this lineup, he has fantastic peripherals. The one saving grace of this team is the defense. They won the team gold glove award and deservingly so. Daulton Varsho has a case to be the best defender in baseball period and is unequivocally the best defender at his position. Ernie Clement also racked up 3.4 bWAR, almost solely on the back of his defense. This rotation could actually be pretty solid. Kevin Gausman has been about as reliable as anyone, you can count on him to give you 150+ Innings at a low 3s ERA. Having a guy like that is a huge luxury that the Jays can not take for granted. The two former Mets, Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer are polar opposites. Chris Bassitt is a 1990s bulldog starter who happens to be playing in 2025. His stuff is pretty bland, but he throws the kitchen sink at you and will give you everything he has every time he toes the rubber. Max Scherzer might be better on a rate basis but he is a bit of a diva and will be lucky to give you 100 innings at this point in his career. Bowden Francis does excite me as a potential breakout arm though, I must admit. The addition of Jeff Hoffman will be huge for the Blue Jays as they try to improve their bullpen. He will be a welcomed upgrade over Jordan Romano who posted an ERA north of 6 last season, whereas Jeff Hoffman has been below the 2.5 mark for 2 years running. I like Yariel Rodriguez in the longman role but outside of him, nobody else is comfortably in my circle of trust. On paper, this roster may not be 90 loss bad, however this team may have the worst juju in baseball. I do not trust the decision makers at the helm and I would not be shocked to see Vladdy moved before seasons end.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs