By Jonah Drew

For clarity purposes, I would like to set the record straight on what defines a “breakout player”. A breakout player is not perennial star making marginal improvements to his game and making the jump to superstardom. A breakout player is someone who has not had massive success in the big leagues and makes the jump to league wide relevancy and makes the statistical jump into a new tier.

1. Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres

Pivetta just recently signed a hefty, 4 year 55 million dollar contract with San Diego. I think this move bodes well for the long term success as Petco Park is a fantastic fit for his profile. In 2024, Pivetta pitched 145.2 Innings to the tune of a 4.14 ERA, but that alone does not adequately represent the talent that Nick Pivetta is. He boasts elite K:BB ratios, striking out 29% of batters while walking just 6%. His peripherals are also exciting, He posted a 3.51 xERA and .291 xwOBA, both of which suggest he was much better than what his base stat line actually finished at. Pivetta gets it done with a very strong fastball that posted a +7 Run Value in 2024 and a Sweeper that boasts a 35% whiff rate. I expect Pivetta to take a huge leap in his new threads.

2. Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates

To say I am bullish on Jared Jones would be an understatement, I really do believe that Jared Jones-Paul Skenes has the potential to be the best 1-2 punch in baseball sooner rather than later. In his rookie campaign, Jones posted a 4.14 ERA in 121.2 IP across 22 starts. Jones is absolutely electric, his fastball sits at 97.3 MPH with serious ride and his slider is absolutely disgusting, posting a whiff rates just north of 37%. Overall, Jones generates a 30.2% whiff rate and 26.2% K%, both of which are terrific number. I am not usually a proponent of the “eye test” but if you watch Jared Jones work and not see a future star, I’m not sure baseball is the sport for you.

3. Joe Boyle, Tampa Bay Rays

On December 14th, 2024, the Rays made an interesting move, trading Jeffrey Springs to the wasteland of Sacramento for a 3 player package headlined by Joe Boyle and a comp pick. Naturally, when Tampa makes a move for an arm it catches my eye, but when it’s a pitcher with the stuff of Joe Boyle, now that’s something to be excited about. I’ll get into Boyle’s absurd arsenal, It remains true that he has had very little success at the major league level, posting an abysmal 6.42 ERA in 10 starts in 2024. Despite that though, I still believe he has massive promise. The fastball is loud, sitting 98 MPH but the shape leaves something to be desired, leading it to post a -7 run value. With the Rays pitching lab, I’m hoping they can make some minor tweaks and flip that pitch on it’s head. His command is also an issue, posting ludicrous walk rates north of 17%. Joe Boyle has loads of potential, and who better to unlock it than the Tampa Bay Rays?

4. Fernando Cruz, New York Yankees

The lone reliever on this list, Cruz was recently shipped to the big apple, bringing potentially the best under the radar pitch in all of baseball. I don’t think enough people acknowledge just how nasty Cruz’ split finger is, boasting a ridiculous 59% whiff rate and .097 xBA. This nasty pitch helped him post a 99th percentile, 38% Whiff and Strikeout rate overall. Cruz’s elite swing and miss abilities have yet to translate to high level run prevention. He’s coming off back to back seasons of high 4 ERA seasons, however in both of those seasons, his xERA has been nearly a full tick better than his actual ERA. Cruz’ fastball has been his achilles heel, posting a .374 wOBA, if he can even get that to be an average pitch, I think he could be a quality back end arm for the Yanks.

5. Osvaldo Bido, Sacramento Athletics

I’ve long liked Osvaldo Bido, going all the way back to when he was a mid level pitching prospect in the Pittsburgh Pirates organization. My affinity for Bido stems from his 5 pitch mix, with 80% of his offerings being sub .200 in the xBA department, with his seldom used sinker coming in at just .201. Bido’s 3.41 ERA was no doubt solid, but that doesn’t properly represent the caliber of season he just had. He posted a 2.72 xERA and a .181 xBA and he was even better from a quality of contact perspective. He posted a 99th percentile, 85.6 MPH Avg. Exit Velocity and a 100th percentile 27% Hard Hit Rate. He also doesn’t lack for strikeouts, landing in the 60th percentile in terms of K%. Bido could be the ace that A’s fans have been yearning for.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs