By Jonah Drew

*To clarify, while 2024 is absolutely baked into these lists, they are far from the sole factor. These lists are meant to be a projection of how I believe these players will perform in 2025

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

As a highly heralded prospect and son of a hall of famer, expectations for Vlad have been sky high from the jump. At times, the pressure has seemingly been too much for him as after his MVP caliber 2021 campaign he did not come anywhere close to his standards in the following 2 seasons. That all changed in 2024 as we finally saw the Vlad we were promised. He posted a triple slash of .323/.396/.544 with 30 homers, good for a 166 OPS+. His peripheral batted ball data is also second to none at the position, landing in the top 5 percentile in nearly every single meaningful metric. We have seen 2 elite seasons, as just a 25 year old, Guerrero will look to make 2024 his norm and there is no reason to believe it won’t be.

2. Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies

It is not talked about enough that Bryce Harper seemlessly transitioned from a full time corner outfielder to a first baseman with supposedly zero prior experience. While First Base defense is not the most important thing, it is still very impressive that he has become one of the best defenders at the position. Not to drop any ground breaking news but Bryce Harper rakes. In 2024, he posted a 149 OPS+ with 30 pumps, yet another feather in Harper’s cap. Harper still hits the ball extremely hard, posting a 48.2% hard hit rate. He also walks more than anyone else in baseball, posting a 12% walk rate, helping him post a .373 OBP. Harper has made his 330 million dollar contract look like a severe underpay.

3. Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers

I think that the Top 3 first basemen in baseball are pretty solidified at this point in time, Guerrero, Harper, and Freeman are the trio, and likely in that order as well. While Freddie is getting up there in age at 35, he is still hacking it with the best of them. In 2024, he slashed .282/.378/.476 with 22 HRs, good for a 137 wRC+. Obviously, Freeman is aging gracefully and his peripherals point to this continuing. I say this because even last year, when he posted on of the best season’s of his career, posting a .977 OPS, he did not hit the ball all that hard. His game is predicated on angles and his plate discipline, posting percentile marks in Sweet Spot% and BB% in the Top 1 percentile pretty consistently. Freddie Freeman is and will continue to age like fine wine.

4. Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves

Even Matt Olson will tell you, 2024 was a down year. He slashed .247/.333/.457 with 29 HRs, good for a 117 wRC+. A good year yes but when you compare it to his 2023 season, it makes you believe we could see him kick it into another year in 2025 and beyond. In 2023, he posted a ridiculous .993 OPS with 54 jacks. While his peripherals do not point to him hitting to the level he did in 2023, they still point to a very strong season in coming. He was above the 80th percentile mark in almost every batted ball metric and he posted a .341 xwOBA which puts him in the 78th percentile. It is also noteworthy that Olson posted 4 Outs Above Average, landing him in the upper echelon of first base defenders. A bounce back feels all but inevitable for Matt Olson in 2025

5. Christian Walker, Houston Astros

I love the Christian Walker move to Houston and I simply can’t understand those that believe that this is Jose Abreu 2.0. Walker has been one of the most underrated players in all of baseball for years now and I am elated that he is now in a major baseball market. In 2024, Walker posted a 119 wRC+ with 26 homers, a slight dip from his 33 and 36 homers in the previous two seasons. His peripherals are also impressive, he posted an 86th percentile xwOBA, an 80th percentile xSLG, and a 90th percentile barrel rate. I expect these numbers to translate well in 2025 as Walker is going from one of the most cavernous parks in baseball in Chase Field to one of hitter friendly parks in all of baseball in Minute Maid Park. He is also an ELITE defender and by far the best defender at the position, posting a +10 fielding run value. Walker in Houston should be a sight to see.

6. Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays

If you just looked at Yandy you would guess that he is a pure slugger based on his absurdly strong build but instead, he is actually a very technical and refined as a hitter. Diaz peaked in 2023, when was one of the best hitters in baseball regardless of position, posting a 157 OPS+. 2024 was not as kind to Diaz as he posted a respectable 119 wRC+ and a .755 OPS. Looking a little deeper excites for his outlook though, he posted an xwOBA of .336 and a .277 xBA. He also hit the ball pretty hard, posting a 92.2 MPH average exit velocity and a 48.7% Hard Hit rate. What really gives him a unique profile for a first baseman is his plate discipline. He chases just 22.8% of the time and whiffs at just a 14.2% clip, landing him in the 97th percentile. From a more base line perspective, he strikes out just 15.3% of the time while walking at an above average clip. Yandy rakes, simple as that.

7. Pete Alonso, Free Agent

Although he did salvage some of it with his Postseason heroics, Pete Alonso lost himself a significant amount of money this past season. In his contract year, he posted a triple slash of .240/.329/.459 with 34 homers, a significant dip from his 40 and 46 in the 2 seasons prior. His peripherals are pretty strong though, he posted an 80th percentile xwOBA, an 82nd percentile xSLG, and an 89th percentile barrel rate. He also doesn’t chase very much and boasted a 10.1% BB%. My 2 main concerns with Alonso are his defense and his launch angles. Starting with the latter, for players that rely on the long ball as much as Alonso does, launch angles are vital and posting a minuscule 30.5% sweet spot rate does not bode well for his success. As for his defensive woes, he posted a -9 Outs Above average and an 11th percentile Fielding Run Value. Especially with the lack of suitors, Alonso’s pay day may be a lot smaller then some anticipate.

8. Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals

With Vinnie it has been more hypothetical than anything else. He is coming off back to back seasons with exactly a .761 OPS. I have to say though, I really believe in his formula to become a highly productive player. He is a 27 year old, he hits the ball hard, he does not swing and miss or strike out, and he is a good first base defender. Pasquantino posted an average exit velocity of 91 MPH and a hard hit rate of 46.5%. He also boasts ridiculous plate discipline and bat control, posting a 96th percentile whiff rate of 14.5 and a 96th percentile strikeout rate of 12.8%, both of which are the best at his position. As for the latter, he is in the 68th percentile of fielding run value and the 81st percentile of outs above average. Pasquantino is one of the most well rounded first basemen in baseball.

9. Josh Naylor, Arizona Diamondbacks

Josh Naylor has been a key cog in a lineup that has found itself playing high stakes playoff games consistently. While I do expect that to be the case in 2025, it will be in a new home, Arizona. In 2024, Naylor slashed .243/.320/.456 with 31 Homers. This was actually a slight contrast from his 2023 when he was more contact oriented, hitting .308 with just 17 Homers, but posted an .843 OPS. This went with Cleveland’s organizational movement toward impact and a slight straw away from the emphasis on bat to ball. He still does have very solid bat to ball for a first baseman though, He posted a 64th percentile whiff rate and an 80th percentile strikeout rate. With solid general peripherals, Naylor seems headed for yet another strong season, this time in the desert.

10. Nathaniel Lowe, Washington Nationals

It feels like first basemen have been passed around like nobodies business this offseason. Whether that is because of front offices valuing overall value rather than just the bat or whatever it may be, that is not for me to decide. Another name on the laundry list is Nathaniel Lowe, who went from Texas to the capital in D.C. In 2024, Lowe slashed .265/.361/.401 with 16 Homeruns and a 121 wRC+. Lowe has been highly consistent since he debuted, never once posting a wRC+ below 100 and peaking at 141 in 2022. Even if his peripherals profile isn’t perfect, his elite walk rates allow him to consistently be a solid bat.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs