By Jonah Drew

*To clarify, while 2024 is absolutely baked into these lists, they are far from the sole factor. These lists are meant to be a projection of how I believe these players will perform in 2025.

1. Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Not to pat myself on the back, but I can’t say I did not see this grand breakout coming from Tarik Skubal. The signs were clearly there, in 15 starts in 2023, Skubal pitched to a 2.80 ERA with a 2.30 xERA, a 7.29 K:BB ratio, and a 51.8% GB%. This is why when he pitched like the clear best pitcher in baseball, it was no surprise. Specifically, Skubal threw 192 innings, striking out 228 batters at a 30.3% clip. He pitched to a 2.39 ERA, with a 2.72 xERA and a 2.49 FIP. Skubal also notably won 18 games, helping bring playoff baseball back to the motor city. There are no metrics that point to Skubal regressing in the near future, I see him repeating his near perfect season and competing for another Cy Young.

2. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

In an era of baseball in which volatility from Starting Pitchers is at an all time high, Zack Wheeler is a breath of fresh air. Since he went to Philadelphia, there hasn’t been a safer bet for 150+ innings at a sub 3 ERA. The only season that Wheeler hasn’t posted a sub 3 ERA in Philly was 2023, when he posted a respectable 3.61 ERA with ERA estimators landing him in the low 3s range. Last year was another great one for Wheeler as he posted a 2.57 ERA in exactly 200 Innings. Wheeler strikes out batters at a 75th percentile 26.9% clip while walking just 5.0% of batters. He does this with a very sustainable six pitch, headlined by a fastball that ranks in the 100th percentile of run value. Zack Wheeler is, and will continue to be the most consistent starting pitcher in all of baseball.

3. Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

I get it, ranking a 22 year old who has not spent a full season in the majors as the third best pitcher in all of baseball is a bit edgy but I am willing to take the risk. The LSU Product was absolutely dominant in his brief AAA stint, posting an absurd 35.2% K-BB. After earning a call up in May, Skenes was absolutely dominant from start to finish. He threw 133 Innings with a ridiculous 1.96 ERA. His peripherals back up his baseline numbers, he posted a 2.53 xERA and a .193 xBAA. He continued his swing and miss prowess, striking out 33.1%(28.7% whiff rate) of batters while walking just 6.2%. Skenes throws 6 pitches headlined by an ungodly fastball and a wipe out slider. Paul Skenes looked unhittable last year and with a full season sample size he looks to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.

4. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

When the White Sox first announced Garrett Crochet would be moved into the starting rotation, I questioned the move. Crochet had not been a starter since his time at Knoxville and he had already dealt with arm issues out of the pen. Fourtunately for Crochet, I was very wrong as he posted a great season, earning himself a ticket out of Chicago and into Boston. Crochet posted a 3.58 ERA in 146 innings pitched. That line is highly misleading though, Crochet did not miss a single start but the White Sox placed an innings limit on him from August on. His ERA estimators are also much more glamorous, he sits at a 2.83 xERA, 2.38 xFIP, and a league best 2.53 SIERA. He struck out 35.1% of batters while walking a measly 5.5% of batters. Especially with his recent move from Chicago to Boston, Crochet is a reincarnation of a certain lights out southpaw and if you can’t figure out who I am talking about then I implore you took take a look at Number 6…

5. Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers

For someone who has 2 Cy Young Awards, the respect levels around Blake Snell are awfully low and for the life of me I can’t comprehend it. Coming off his second Cy Young award, Blake Snell couldn’t even find himself a new home until March when he finally inked a 2 year deal that he would eventually opt out of. Due to the prolonged off-season Snell got off to a very slow start to the 2024 season but after he got his legs under him he would proceed to dominate from there on out. He finished the season with a 3.12 ERA in 104 Innings with impressive peripherals. He posted a 96th percentile 2.57 xERA, 98th percentile .178 xERA, and a 2.43 FIP. Snell is essentially unhittable, his only fault is his 10.5% walk rate which he cancels out with his 34.7% strikeout rate. Snell is elite and if you can’t see it after all he’s done I do not have much for you.

6. Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

It felt obvious that we would see a Chris Sale resurgence in Atlanta because well, it’s Atlanta. I doubt anyone saw this Cy Young performance coming after a significant stretch of supbar results and inavailability. In his first season south of the Mason-Dixon, Sale put up a career season. He threw 177.2 Innings at a league leading 2.38 ERA, striking out 32.1% of batters while walking just 5.6%. From a peripheral standpoint, Sale was even better. Sale posted an unbelievable 2.08 FIP, 2.80 xERA, 2.13 xBAA, and a .261 xwOBA. His slider was one of, if not the best in all of baseball last year, it generated a .205 wOBA and a 42.7% whiff rate. With solid tertiary pitches and strong batted ball data to boot, Sale looks to continue his second wind into 2025.

7. Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

2024 was a rare blip in an otherwise absurdly durable career for Gerrit Cole. Excluding the 2020 season of course, the last time Cole did not start more than 30 games was 2016 with the Pirates, that was before this year of course. Cole missed most of the first half due to an elbow injury, limiting him to just 17 starts. In those 17 Starts, Cole posted a 3.41 ERA. His peripherals were not sexy either, he posted a 3.64 xERA and a 3.69 FIP. While he was far from a Top 10 pitcher in 2024, I am willing to bet on his track record. In his last healthy season, he was the best pitcher in baseball, winning the Cy Young and posting a 2.63 ERA. One down season is not enough to completely deter me from Gerrit Cole.

8. Corbin Burnes, Free Agent

Since breaking out and winning the Cy Young back in 2021, Corbin Burnes has been great ever since. In his first season in Baltimore, Burnes was excellent. He threw 194.1 Innings at a 2.92 ERA. However, while he is still a tremendous pitcher, he has slightly regressed analytically. He is only striking out 23.1% of batters and he posts a 3.34 xERA. On the other hand, at his peak he was striking out over 35% of batters and was posting a 2.00 xERA. Burnes is still great at generating weak ground balls and limiting free passes so his floor remains very high but without his elite swing and miss stuff of old, his ceiling is limited. This was not meant to be Burnes slander, after all I have him ranked in my top 8. All I’ll say is be weary if your team is the one that pays him an insane amount of money.

9. Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals

Cole Ragans transformation is absolutely unexplainable. Up until the deadline in 2023, Ragans was nothing more than a mop up guy with a career 5.32 ERA for the Texas Rangers. That was until he was sent to Kansas City in a deadline deal that brought Aroldis Chapman to the lone-star state. Ragans somehow gained multiple ticks on all of his pitches and proceeded to pitch to a 2.64 ERA. In 2024, Ragans made 32 starts, totaling 186.1 Innings Pitched at a 3.14 ERA. His peripherals were also very strong, he posted a 3.31 xERA and a 2.99 ERA. He struck out nearly 30% of batters with his only Achilles heel coming in the form of a 8.8% BB%. With his new found elite stuff, Ragans is going to be a premier southpaw for the foreseeable future.

10. Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers

All reports are that Tyler Glasnow’s elbow is fully healed and he will be full-go from the jump in 2025. If these are true, then watch out because this Dodgers rotation could be one of the greatest starting rotations ever assembled, in large part due to Tyler Glasnow. It is also noteworthy that Glasnow has pitched over 120 Innings in back to back years which does ease some of the injury concerns that have plagued him in the past. In his first year in LA, Glasnow pitched 134 innings at a 3.49 ERA. While those stats are solid, they do not do his performance justice. His peripherals are highly impressive, he posted a 2.65 xERA and a .195 xBAA, both of which have him in the top 7 percentile in all of baseball. He also strikes out batters at a 32.2% clip, boasting a video game curveball that batters hit .098 on and whiff on a 47.5% clip. If Glasnow can stay healthy, fingers crossed, Glasnow has a chance to dominate.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs