Diamond Metrics

By Joe Browne

Tonight, Juan Soto and the New York Mets came to an agreement on a 15 year deal worth 765 million dollars. Soto inked the richest contract in professional sports history tonight, surpassing Shohei Ohtani and the contract he inked with the Dodgers last winter. A historic moment in the history of the Mets franchise and further proof that the Yankees are no longer the only big time spender in New York. Soto earned himself this mega-payday for a multitude of reasons. First, his track record for a free agent is unmatched and like nothing we have ever seen before. Soto has already hit 201 homers and accumulated a 36.4 bWAR. Second, he is only 26 years old. To have a player of his caliber at that young of an age hit the open market is extremely rare. So rare that it has never really been seen before. His age and already fleshed out track record earned him this mega deal. Another reason why Soto generates so much value is his unmatched ability to reach base. Throughout his career thus far, Soto has walked 769 times and struck out only 696. There is not another hitter in recent history that owns that elite of a K/BB ratio. Despite all of this, many will raise the question of him potentially being overpaid. The answer would be yes, he is overpaid but that is the price it took to bring him to Queens and that is the one Steve Cohen had to pay. The 765 million is what the market called for and Cohen and the Mets rose to the occasion. 

Looking at it from the Mets perspective they landed their guy and the counterpart to Fransisco Lindor at the top of their lineup. Two guys who will be perennial MVP candidates in the National League for years to come and two top 10 players in the game. If the Mets are able to bring Pete Alonso back this lineup looks absolutely lethal. Lindor, Soto, Vientos, Alonso and Nimmo would make up arguably the best first five of any lineup in baseball. New York will be riding high off of their magical 2024 playoff run at the start of 2025 and are in a prime position for a World Series run. Looking at it from the Yankees viewpoint is a bit different. Do not get it twisted, the Yankees are still very good and will win in 2025. The money that could have gone toward Soto will now be spread out across multiple players. Some guys to look out for would be: Alex Bregman, Christian Walker,  Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Santnder, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried just to name a few. They still have the best player on the planet in Aaron Judge and a built up pitching staff. While it hurts to lose Soto’s production in the lineup Brian Cashman and co. will look to bring in multiple bats to fill that void in true moneyball style.

Soto is far from a perfect player because of his rather spotty defense. David Stearns despises outfielders who can not field their position but when a guy swings a stick the magnitude of Soto, he makes an exception. The defense could prove to be a problem but the Mets will do their best to hide Soto with strong defensive counterparts in the outfield like Tyrone Taylor, Jose Siri and Brandon Nimmo. The Mets are definitely not done with their offseason moves, they have a lot more position players and pitching needs they have to attend to. The focus on Soto the last few weeks was evident and now that they have landed him they can move onto other priorities. The bullpen could use some help and the rotation probably needs one more solid arm. Also, the Mets have to decide how they want to round out the bottom of their lineup behind the star studded top of the order. 

A monumental moment in not just Mets history but also baseball history was seen tonight. Juan Soto, one of baseball’s brightest and biggest stars, jumped to the crosstown rival for 765 million dollars. When you take a step back and really think about it, it does not really even seem real that this took place tonight. The Soto Shuffle in Queens for the next 15 years is going to be electric to say the least. 

Sources:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

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