By Jonah Drew

For a good bit of the season, this American League MVP race has been a four horse race. With the four competitors being Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr., Juan Soto, and Gunnar Henderson. But as it usually does, the race has begun to take shape. While Juan Soto is having a tremendous season, posting a 184 wRC+ with a 6.7 fWAR, I just do not see it happening for him. Luckily Juan Soto is just 25 years old with the opportunity to compete for several MVPs down the line. In addition, the man earned himself an ungodly amount of money, regardless of which borough it comes from. Gunnar Henderson is having an equally impressive season. In just his sophomore season, Gunnar sits at a 6.3 fWAR and a 160 wRC+. Both Soto and Gunnar might be the MVP in a normal year, hell, they might be the MVP if they played on National League teams but instead they will have to settle for 3rd and 4th place. This is because of the godlike seasons we have seen from both Bobby Witt Jr. and Aaron Judge, the two are inseperable when it comes to voting so allow me to lay out the absurdity we are looking at.

Bobby Witt Jr.

Before the 2024 season, Bobby Witt Jr. signed an 11 year, 288 Million dollar extension, making him a Royal for the long haul. Clearly this gave him some comfort because what Witt has done post extension, is just ridiculous. Thus far, Witt is slashing .347/.394/.604 with 22 HRs and 25 SBs. Say what you want about batting average(Trust me I agree), but there is absolutely no denying that .347 is insanely impressive. There is also absolutely nobody in the game that compares Witt in the Power-Speed department. Witt went 30-49 last season and it looks like he’ll be in that ballpark again. Witt is also doing this while playing ELITE shortstop defense, so much so that if the season ended today, he would be my vote for platinum glove. As it stands right now, Bobby Witt Jr. is your fWAR leader, do with that what you will. As impressive as the surface level stats are, I’d argue the peripherals are even more impressive.

Right off the bat, Witt is in the 99th percentile of Batting Run Value, Baserunning Run Value, and Fielding Run Value. There is no aspect of the game of baseball that Bobby Witt Jr. is not among the best at. Nobody epitomizes what it means to be a “5 Tool Player” like Bobby Witt. His absurd slashline is more than backed up by his peripherals, Witt currently has a .329 xBA, a .600 xSLG, and a .414 xwOBA. All of which are marks that land in at the top of the leaderboard respectively. He also hits the ball as hard as anybody, his Average Exit Velocity is 92.9 MPH, his Barrel Rate is at 14.1%, his Hard Hit Rate 49.4%, and his Sweet Spot Rate is 36.8%. WOW. None of this compares to what Witt is doing on the defensive side though. Witt has been pretty far and away the best defender in baseball this year, he is in the 100th percentile in OAA and has made some of the best throws of the season. There is absolutely Bobby Witt Jr. can’t do and in 9/10 seasons, he is the run away MVP, but in 2024, he is in a deadlock with the man himself, Aaron Judge.

Aaron Judge

What do you know, Aaron Judge is doing the thing again, the thing being posting one of the best offensive seasons of the Modern Era. Despite all the fan fair Judge got during his record breaking season in 2022, 2024 is shaping to be an even better season for Judge. He is currently slashing .323/.458/.689 with 41 Homeruns(IT IS AUGUST 11th!). For those who do not have a calculator on hand, that is a 1.147 OPS, good for a 217 OPS+. That would earn him the best offensive season since Barry Bonds in 2004. However, for those Barry Bonds deniers out there, it would be the best Non-Bonds season since Mickey Mantle way back in 1957. Aaron Judge is in the midst of one the best offensive peaks in baseball history.

Not that there was any question about it, but the peripherals more than justify Aaron Judge’s surface level numbers. Rather than boring you with a laundry list, let me put it like this. Aaron Judge leads baseball in the following analytical categories, xwOBA, xSLG, Average Exit Velocity, Barrel Rate, Hard Hit Rate, and Walk Rate. He is also in the 97th percentile of xBA, the 94th percentile of Sweet Spot rate, the 99th percentile of Bat Speed, and the 97th percentile of chase rate. This is the best overall offensive player this game has seen since Barry Bonds, and well…we don’t have to get into that right now. I do have to say tho Judge has been flat out poor defensively this season. That is really the only reason we are having the Witt vs Judge debate.

Overall, this is a historic race, between 2 historic baseball players so more than anything just appreciate it. The question really is, would you rather have the most well rounded player this game has seen in forever, or the best hitter this game as seen in forever, let that determine your vote.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

ESPN

Fangraphs