By Jonah Drew

In an era where power is supremely heralded, even at the expense of swing and miss, Steven Kwan is such a breath of fresh air. Before we get into the scorched earth tear that Steven Kwan is on, let’s take a second to figure out where the hell this bat to ball savant came from.

*For what it’s worth I am still not totally convinced he is not a 1970’s baseball agent that was sent to come bring contact hitting back to modern baseball.

Kwan began his college career all the way back in 2016 up in Corvallis for the Oregon State Beavers. He did not play much his freshman year but his sophomore year was a pretty successful one. Although he did not slug at all, he did bat .331 while getting on base at a .440 clip. His big breakout came in his Junior year, Kwan slashed .356/.463/.457 for a National Champion winning Oregon State team. This led to him being selected 163rd overall by the baseball organization that is located in Cleveland. Kwan played excellent in affiliated ball in 2018 between rookie ball and low A. 2019 was a so-so year for Kwan, he spent the entire year in Lynchburg where he posted a mediocre .735 OPS. Of course, there was no Minor League season in 2020, so 2021 was his next appearance in organized baseball. Whatever he did during quarantine, worked. I say this because Kwan came out the other side much improved, he started in AA where he can out swinging. In his first 51 AA Games, Kwan slashed .337/.411/.539 with 7 homers. This earned him a promotion to AAA, where he continued to pulverize opposing pitchers. In AAA Columbus, Kwan slashed .311/.398/.505 in 26 Games. Kwan only played 77 games in 2021 due to injury but it was clear he was ready for big league action. Kwan has always been an on base machine.

Steven Kwan actually had a tremendous rookie year in 2022 after he earned big league call up. Helped by an extremely strong start, Kwan slashed .298/.373/.400, good for a 126 wRC+. Kwan became something of a fan favorite as he embodied everything that 2022 Cleveland Guardians baseball was. He was a fundamental, defensive, contact oriented, youthful ball player. Those Guardians shocked just about everybody, winning 92 games and even a playoff series. After getting one win away from the ALCS, Kwan and the team as a whole had sky high expectations headed into 2023. However, the season did not go as planned for either of the aforementioned parties. Coming off a 3rd Place ROY finish, Kwan was expected to take a step up from his strong rookie campaign but the opposite took place. Kwan regressed to a triple slash of .268/.340/.370, not exactly what he or frankly anybody wanted. The Guardians underwent a similar regression, they won just 76 games. This was a severe missed opportunity as the AL Central was historically weak, a simple moderate regression would have likely landed them a division title. This led to a changing of the guard. Legendary manager, Terry Francona retired which invited the ever exuberant Steven Vogt to take the reigns. It’s impossible to determine if contributed to this contributed to the absurd start Steven Kwan is off to but without further a do, let’s get into this tear.

Last season, then Marlins infielder, Luis Arraez was chasing .400, a feat that has not been conquered since Ted Williams did it in the early 1940’s. Arraez ultimately teetered off as the season progresses and finished the year at .354. This year, we have a new challenger for Williams’ throne, that of course being Steven Kwan. Full transparency, I highly doubt Kwan actually makes a serious case to challenge Ted Williams. This is no slight at Kwan whatsoever but I truly believe it is virtually impossible to hit .400 over a 162 game season in the 2024 MLB. Kwan is also walking at an above average clip which has helped him to an absurd .449 OBP. Kwan has always been notorious for his lack of slugging, bit that gripe is no longer as Kwan sits at .575 in the slugging department. The thing about Kwan that puts him over the top is the fact that he is an elite defender in left field. 89th percentile in range, 87th in arm value, and 68th in arm strength. This all culminates in FRV of 4, good enough for the 87th percentile. This elite defense has earned him gold glove honors in each of his first 2 years and there is absolutely nothing stopping him from contending for a 3-peat. If Kwan can sustain anything that resembles his current level offensive production, he will be among the elite outfielders in all of baseball for years to come.

There is no denying the level of production Kwan is providing right now, so lets take a look in from an analytical standpoint and find out what has gone into this torrid season. It is easy to say that Kwan is “getting lucky” due to his low average exit velocity but that is a gross oversimplification. Although he doesn’t hit the ball all that hard, he compensates for it with some of the best bat control in baseball. He is in the launch angle sweet spot 43.8% of the time(98th pct). He is able to get the most out of his batted balls not by how hard he hits them, but with the angle in which they come off the bat. This is why stats like xwOBA(.374) and xBA(.338) back up his growth to stardom. He also does not strikeout ever, his 7.5% K% is good for the best in all of baseball. Going deeper, Kwan has a chase rate of 19%, a mark that is near the top of MLB. His Z-Contact is a league leading, 97.5%, in english, out of 100 swings in the strike zone, rounded to a whole number, Kwan will whiff at just 2 of them, that is absolutely insane. If you throw a ball, he won’t swing, if you throw a strike he will hit it, and at an optimal launch angle at that. That is a pretty sound recipe for success if you ask me.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

Forbes