By Jonah Drew

This MVP Caliber performance has felt like a long time coming for Kyle Tucker. I am going on 3 years running of hold the stance that Kyle Tucker is the Astros’ most valuable player, not Yordan Alvarez nor Jose Altuve. While of course Tucker has been great these past couple of years, he clearly had more in the Tank. Coming into 2022, I thought we were about to see a different level of Tucker yet, it was more of the same, which is nothing to scoff at. No, a 129 wRC+ and a 4.9 fWAR is not a season to slander but coming off a 146 wRC+, I expected a step up. Then, coming into 2023, I was ready to be fooled again, I maintained my bullish stance on Tucker. Wouldn’t you know it he repeated an early similar season to the one he posted in 2022, he put up an improved 140 wRC+ but the exact same fWAR of 4.9. Yet, even though he hadn’t shown it yet, I still believed there was an MVP Caliber uptick within range, and so far, it looks like my patience is paying off.

The term “5 Tool Player” refers to a given player being comfortably above average at all of the 5 scouting tools that players are graded on a scale of 20-80, with 80 being best in MLB at that specific tool and 20 being a rare level of pure futility. This term is thrown far to loosely, it seems like every time a well rounded player comes around, the general baseball public wastes no time anointing him as the newest 5 tool player. I do not think these people realize just how difficult it is to truly earn this label. To possess a plus hit tool, plus power, plus speed, a plus glove, and a plus arm, is extremely rare, hence why the club is no more than 8-10 names. This list, this club, this group, whatever you want to call it, is invalid if it does not include Kyle Daniel Tucker. Tucker is an easy above average hitter, an 89.6% Z-Contact rate and a 98th percentile chase rate are both tremendous marks. Tucker also has some serious pop, his Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate is consistently in the upper echolon. These metrics actually play up thanks to the fact that he is one of the best launch angle generators in the game, consistently being one of the league leaders in Sweet Spot Rate. On a surface level front, Tucker averages 32 Homers per 162 and is currently on pace to shatter that as he is currently Major League Baseball’s Homerun king at 18. The third tool speed is the only one remotely questionable as his run times aren’t what you’d think they’d be but you wont hear me saying someone who averages 25 SB and just 3 CS per 162 is not a plus runner. Tucker is currently in the 86th percentile of Outs Above Average and is consistently hovering around there, the guy is a plus defender in a wacky outfield like the one in Minute Maid, check it off. Lastly, his arm, Tucker has been above average in every single year of his 7 year big league career.

Let’s talk 2024, the best season of Kyle Tucker’s career thus far, by a landslide that is. On a baseline front, Tucker is triple slashing .281/.410/.616(1.016 OPS) with a wRC+ of 188 and an obscene 3.2 fWAR through just 51 Games. These are so behind elite, surely he must be getting lucky, surely this level of performance will come back down to earth, right!? Well, maybe so, but analytically speaking, there is no evidence that this torrid start is any sort of fluke. In fact, his peripheral data may even point to some positive regression somehow. Tucker has an absolutely ridiculous xwOBA of .422(98th Pct), .290 xBA(90th Pct), and a .580 xSLG(97th Pct), yea, Kyle Tucker ain’t going anywhere anytime soon. Tucker has also been a supremely efficient base stealer, swiping 9 bags without being caught once. As you know from my whole 5 tool rant, Kyle Tucker is a plus defender with a cannon attached to his left shoulder. Typically, Tucker is a 30-30 threat but the way it’s looking, Tucker might be looking at a 40-40 season with the former being closer to 50(Whoa).

Now, how did Kyle Tucker take himself from “great player” status to MVP conversations, well, let me tell you. Tucker has always had elite plate discipline with a career 16.0% strikeout rate and a career 10.8% walk rate, great numbers? Yes. Better than what he is doing now? Good one. As I previously said, Kyle Tucker simply does not doing what we call chasing anymore, with a minuscule 16.1% chase rate, this along with great contact rates has helped his strikeout just 15.8% of the time while walking, let me check, 18 PERCENT, nearly an 8 percent jump from his career norm. Kyle Tucker has always had impact, but like this, nope. Tucker has an average exit velocity of 90.9 MPH, a hard hit rate of 45.3%, and a 14.7% barrel rate. For reference Kyle Tucker is usually towards the middle of the pack in these metrics, with his power mainly coming from his innate ability to lift the ball. Now that he is hitting the ball as hard as almost anybody, combine this with his lift ability, you get a ridiculous 18 Homers in just 51 games. Kyle Tucker has always been a fastball masher but this year he has taken it to a new level(Noticing a theme?). King Tuck had a +16 Run Value vs 4 seamers in 2022, and a +22 Run Value vs 4 seamers in 2023, elite. In 2024 you ask, +16, already matching his 2022 total and on pace to damn near double his total from last season. Put Simply, Kyle Tucker has not transformed himself rather he has simply just stayed the course and made himself better in every aspect.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

Statmuse

MLB.com

Wikipedia