By Jonah Drew

C.J. Abrams has never not had tremendous expectations on him, being selected 6th Overall by the San Diego Padres, by all accounts one of the best organizations in terms of scouting and drafting, out of Blessed Trinity HS in Georgia. Abrams dominated at all levels of the minor leagues and gaining some serious steam on the prospect pedigree front. Abrams spent 3 full calendar years as top 25 prospect in baseball by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. Abrams played just 46 Games for the big club in San Diego before being traded at the 2022 Deadline. Who was he traded for you ask? Well that would be the modern day Ted Williams, Juan Soto. He along with Mackenzie Gore, Robert Hassell, James Wood, Luke Voit, and Jarlin Susana. C.J. was the headliner in this deal, he was given the unfair burden of trying to fill the gigantic shoes of Juan Soto. I’m sure that this, along with the fact that he was a 21 year old the highest level contributed to his 74 OPS+ to finish the year in Washington.

It felt as if a breakout was imminent in 2023 for Abrams. However, he did not start the year setting the world ablaze, posting an OPS a hair above .700 in both April and May. Not too bad but he was clearly more talented than his production. June however, now that was bad, Abrams posted an abysmal .247 OBP and a .585 OPS. Things were looking bleak for Abrams, people were beginning to question if the Nationals had made a huge mistake, until July. Abrams finally heated up, slugging .500 and hitting 4 homers in the month. After a down August, Abrams finished the season on a high note, having a strong September. Overall, 2023 turned out to be a respectable season for Abrams, logging 18 HRs and a .712 OPS with 47 Stolen Bases to boot. For whatever reason, fans quick a bit hyperbolic when talking about Abrams, making some brash claims and calling this some breakout season. I did not see it at all, Abrams underlying data was ugly despite some solid baseline numbers in his 3.4 win season. Abrams posted a 21st percentile xwOBA, a 16th percentile average exit velocity, a 33rd percentile xSLG, and a 14th percentile chase rate. This made me question where all this buzz surrounding Abrams was coming from. He has silenced me and any doubters just several months later.

Abrams has infact, set the world ablaze with his torrid start to the 2024 season. Abrams has a triple slash of .297/.358/.676 with 6 HRs, 4 SBs, and a league leading 3 triples. This is good for a 1.1 bWAR and a 175 wRC+. These numbers are a significant upgrade from his middling 2023 and it isn’t suprising if you take a look at his peripheral metrics. Abrams has improved his xwOBA to .405(92nd Pct), his xBA to .323(94th Pct), his xSLG to .575(93rd Pct), his BB% up to 8.5%, and what I believe the most significant, his 48.3% Sweet Spot%(97th Pct). Abrams did not optimize his launch angles well at all in 2023, his Sweet Spot% was in the 30th percentile at 32.6% and he still mustered 18 jacks without even hitting the ball particularly hard, another thing he has improved on. Although his defense has continued to not be great, it is clear that he has the potential to be a plus defender at short, he has a 67th percentile arm and 84th percentile sprint speed. His lacks defensive instincts but he has the raw tools to be a strong defender, those instincts should come with time, after all he is still just 23 years of age. Abrams seems to be putting it together at it is clear the Nationals have their star of the future(and the present) at the shortstop position.

Sources:

Baseball America

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

Statmuse