By Jonah Drew
The Shota Imanaga sweepstakes took a backseat to the well heralded monetary feud between the financial titans of MLB for the services of Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Shota was projected anywhere with any significant financial punch for a multi year deal in any range between 75-100 Million Dollars. This is why it came as such a shocker when it was announced that Imanaga had signed a 4 year 54 Million dollar deal to play for the Cubs. A signing that looks to be a heist on the part of Jed Hoyer and the Cubs brass, I will be going in depth on Imanaga’s success later in the article.
Michael Busch was selected 31st overall by the Los Angeles Dodgers out of the University of North Carolina all the way back in 2019. Since that point, all Busch has done is rake, posting a career .919 OPS in the minor leagues. Busch was as blocked as anyone I have seen since I started seriously evaluatings. It was especially unforeseen because Busch is not limited in terms of positional versatility. Busch can play all over the diamond but as we know, the Dodgers can hang with anybody not located in Baltimore, Maryland for organizational depth purposes and he was blocked everywhere he went. This is why prospect nerds like myself were elated to find out that Busch had been sent to Chicago in exchange for two high upside arms in Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope. Busch has absolutely mashed since having the opportunity to play everyday without looking over his shoulder at Max Muncy, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman.
Shota Imanaga Breakdown:
Shota Imanaga has been doing this dominating thing for a while now, going back to his days with the Yokahoma Baystars in the NPB. Across 8 NPB Seasons, Imanaga pitched over 1000 Innings at a 3.18 Earned Run Average. To go along with that, Imanaga struck out 9.2 per 9 while walking just 2.5 per 9. Coming stateside, Imanaga drew a lot of comparisons to Nestor Cortes of the Yankees, I see it but I would consider him an upgraded version of nasty Nestor. To say Shota is off to a great start would be an extreme understatement. Throw 15.0 Innings, Imanaga has not allowed a single earned run, has struck out 16 hitters and walked just 2. The one thing I do not expect to continue is his ability to limit the long ball, he has not allowed a homer yet in his 3 starts. Imanaga throws his four seamer over 67% of the time, a ridiculous rate. As great as the pitch is, it is very prone to allowing homers. Sitting 93 with some crazy ride up in the zone, the pitch allows a ton of fly balls, hence the 32 degree launch angle, it does balance out with the amount of weak pop ups it generates though. This especially dangerous at a place like Wrigley Field, where on any given day the wind could carry a lazy flyball into the bleachers. I also really like both of Imanaga’s secondaries, a splitter of course, and a sweeper. Despite what the BAA may lead you to believe, his splitter has actually been very good. Underlying numbers such as his .278 xwOBA and his 53.8% whiff rate shows the pitch is actually a very solid tertiary offering. Imanaga mainly uses his sweeper against Left Handed Hitters, typical for southpaws with sweepers and sliders. The pitch also has a misleading BAA but it has an average exit velocity of just 76.9 MPH and a whiff rate of 37.5%. Imanaga has been absolutely dominant as a 30 Year Old rookie and would be my favorite for NL ROY, in a completely foreign country no less. Impressive stuff.
Michael Busch Breakdown:
I referenced how blocked Michael Busch was as a member of the perpetual logjam commonly referred to as the Los Angeles Dodgers. Busch has played over 200 Games in AAA Oklahoma City and has mashed throughout the whole process, posting a 150 wRC+ in a loaded PCL this past year. One explanation some people may point to is that he is a benefactor of the hitter friendly environments imposed by the PCL, this is not the case he absolutely has the Batted Ball data to boot. Many prospects with Busch’s pedigree don’t even play 200 games in MiLB but Busch exceeded that benchmark at just one stop. Even though he was the victim of some prospect fatigue, Busch was still widely regarded as a comfortable Top 75 guy. This is why it should not floor you that Busch is obliterating baseballs the way he is now. Through 18 Games, Busch has posted a .317/.400/.667 slash line with a 187 wRC+, and 6 Homers already. The craziest part of these tremendous baseline numbers, Busch’s peripheral data backs it up. Busch has posted a 97th percentile xwOBA, an 85th percentile xBA, a 99th percentile xSLG, a 95th percentile average exit velocity, a 98th percentile barrel rate, and an 88th percentile sweet spot rate. For a rookie, for anybody, these numbers are absolutely elite and he has given us no reason to speculate that this heater is a fluke in the slightest. Michael Busch should not still have rookie eligibility as a 26 year old, but here we are and I could not be more excited that Busch is thriving in his new found opportunity.
Sources:
Diamond Metrics 
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