By Jonah Drew

Ty France: 60.7% Hard Hit Rate

Since coming to Seattle from San Diego, Ty France had been an extremely consistent hitter, posting a wRC+ above 125 in 2020, 2021, and 2022. However, 2023 was not as successful, as a First Baseman it is his duty to provide impact to a lineup that desperately needed. He did not do that, France posted a Hard Hit Rate of 38.6% and a SLG of .366, this is not going to cut it for a First Baseman that does not play particularly good defense. It seems France has made a decision to sacrifice some hit for power. As previously stated, France nearly doubled his Hard Hit Rate, meaning his batted balls are coming off the bat at 95 MPH or greater. This, along with his improved launch angles, have generated a barrel rate in the 84th percentile. In 2023, a season where a struggled, France was only striking out at a 17.6% clip, now, he is striking out at a 25% clip. France is okay with striking out more, if it means he is hitting the ball significantly harder. This change has helped him post a 94th percentile xwOBA of .436, the change will yield significantly better results in due time.

Jordan Hicks: 4.5% Walk Rate

After Jordan Hicks signed a 4 year, 44 Million dollar deal to join the San Francisco Giants this past off-season, the rumor mill was swirling about Jordan Hicks being a full time starter. First of all, I was skeptical that these rumors were even true, second of all, I did not like this move at all. Hicks is one of the hardest throwers ever, no exaggeration and he came along with the expected concerns. Hicks posted an 11th percentile, 11.2% BB% in 2023, an improvement from his 1st percentile BB% rate in 2022. Although he still throws hard, he has sacrificed some velocity in order for better control. I also find his 74.9% F-Strike% interesting as it is a massive jump from where he has usually been. Hicks is making an effort to stay in pitchers counts and to stop issuing free passes.

Edward Olivares: 65% Sweet Spot Rate

Who is Edward Olivares, well he is a 28 year old outfielder who started his career in San Diego, then made his way to Kansas City, where he had a quietly good season last year, and is now playing for the 9-4 Pittsburgh Pirates. Next, what is sweet spot rate, well that this calculating by finding how many times a player hits a ball at an optimal launch angle(between 8 and 32 degrees) and dividing it by BBE. His tally ranks in the 100th percentile and has allowed him to generate a barrel rate of 23.1%, despite not hitting the ball particularly hard. This improvement has yielded some ridiculous numbers that frankly aren’t sustainable, but there is no reason he can not be a key piece for Pittsburgh going forward.

Baltimore Orioles Pitching: .286 xwOBA

2023 was a coming out party for the Orioles as an organization. The club won over 100 games and the American League regular season title. The Orioles can mainly thank their potent young lineup for this massive season. Their pitching as a whole was not World Series caliber and that is the main reason that they got bounced in the ALDS by the eventual champion Texas Rangers. GM Mike Elias new recognized this issue and pounced, landing former Cy Young winner, Corbin Burnes, and thanks to their unfathomable depth, they barely even felt it. In 2023, the Orioles posted a .317 xwOBA as a staff, not where you want to be if you want to win a World Series like Baltimore does. Combine this with their ever improving young lineup, the sky is the limit for this team.

Luis Arraez: .250 Avg

There was a time last season when we as a community were talking about Luis Arraez potentially being the first player to hit .400 since Ted Williams did it all the way back in 1941. Just a shade under a calendar year later, and Luis Arraez is just a .250 hitter, what gives? For starters, he has really struggled to hit left handed pitching, something that has not been a major issue in the past. Arraez is hitting just .115 against southpaws with a .412 OPS to boot. Luis is may be getting slightly unlucky, hence his .273 xBA, but even that is not enough to make him a player of significant value. Arraez is a horrible fielder(-5 OAA) and provides very little impact(.348 xSLG). It is truly shocking to see a hitter of Arraez caliber struggle like this, even if it is early.

MJ Melendez: .88 BB/K

MJ Melendez was once a heralded catching prospect who had some unforeseen raw athleticism from a backstop. Fast forward a couple of years and Melendez is playing for his life in 2024. Melendez has struggled badly in his first 2 seasons as a pro, barely posting an OPS above 700 in both years. This is largely in part of his plate discipline, posting BB/K ratios of .5 and .36 in 2022 and 2023 respectively. His .88 BB/K ratio has helped him post a 1.101 OPS to start 2024. A large part of his plate discipline success has been his selectiveness and willingness to go deep into counts, Melendez has lowered his swing rate by 6% and his Z-Swing by 8%.

Lawrence Butler: 14.3% Walk Rate

Lawrence Butler is far from a household name, and partly because he is a member of the Oakland A’s Organization. Butler is a very toolsy prospect, he has some serious raw power and he can absolutely fly from a very wirey frame. While these tools have always been there, he has never had a great approach. He has not posted a double digit walk rate since he was in Low A in 2021. This is why it is so shocking that his peak walk rate comes vs major league pitching. It is also worth mentioning that he walked just 3% of the time in his debut MLB season.

Freddie Freeman: -3 Defensive Runs Saved

I always thought that defense from the first base position was generally very overlooked. No it is not a premium defensive position like a shortstop or a centerfield but some people act like First Baseman are essentially Designated Hitters which they are not. This is a small part of what makes Freddie Freeman a future hall of famer. Freeman has always been a strong defensive first baseman and the metrics have backed it up. This is why it is so shocking that someone with his defensive resume is struggling like Freeman, his -3 DRS mark ranks dead last among first baseman. It must be said these defensive metrics are an imperfect science and can fluctuate drastrically but Freeman is getting up there in age so it is at least something to monitor.

Reid Detmers: .166 wOBA(4SM FB)

Reid Detmers is a former Top 10 pick out of Louisville, who has always been a supreme talent. The southpaw is really flexing his muscles in the young 2024 season, he has a 1.07 ERA in 17 IP with a 100th strikeout rate. He is off to as hot of a start as just about any pitcher in all of baseball, thanks to his 4SM Fastball. The pitch has gained some serious ride up in the zone, averaging 1.9 more inches of vertical movement than the average Four Seamer. The craziest thing about this pitch’s immense success, it has been his Achilles heal in the past. Last season, Detmers fastball allowed a .291 BAA and a .383 wOBA, that pitch did not have nearly the ride that this year’s does. This fastball upgrade has been the driving factor for Detmers blazing hot start to 2024

Jose Caballero: .320 xBA

Yes, you are correct, the Tampa Bays Rays have done the thing again. Caballero was brought to St. Pete’s by way of Seattle in exchange for another Rays project in Luke Raley. Caballero was a solid defensive middle infielder for Seattle but really nothing more. The Rays have had a clear objective for Caballero’s approach, be aggresive. Caballero has been swinging much much more, including an incredibly high 70.2% Z-Swing. Caballero has not drawn a single walk yet, playing just about everyday 2 weeks into the season, that is almost impressive. Caballero’s xBA in Seattle was just .205, a jump of more than 10% is very impressive in just a one season sample. Combine this with elite speed and defense, you got yourself a dude.

Sources

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

MLB film room