By Jonah Drew

Expectations were low for the Red Sox heading into the 2024. The main reason for the doubt were the question marks regarding the rotation. The guy who was expected to be the best pitcher in this rotation has struggled in Brayan Bello, however the latter 4 have been excellent. Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, Kutter Crawford, and the man who has stood out to me, Nick Pivetta, all have ERAs below 1.80. It is definitely worth mentioning that they have faced two sub par lineups in the Mariners and the Athletics to open up the season. Regardless of the competition, the Red Sox rotation and specifically Nick Pivetta have shown serious improvement, helping Boston to get off to a tremendous 5-2 start.

Nick Pivetta has been solid since making the short trip from Philadelphia to Boston. Pivetta posted a 4.53 ERA in 30 Starts in 2021 and he posted a 4.56 ERA in a league leading 33 Starts in 2022. Pivetta split his 2023 between the bullpen and the starting rotation making 38 appearances with just 16 of them being starts. All together Pivetta put up a very solid 4.04 ERA, a 113 ERA+. Pivetta’s peripherals really did turn some heads, his sub 4 FIP , 3.98 xERA, and 3.55 xFIP showed that Nick Pivetta could be even better than his already strong 2023. Pivetta showed tremendous ability to elude bats was on full display last season, his 35.5% O-Swing, his 31.2% K rate, and his 29.3% CSW% were all eye opening. As impressive as all of this is, Pivetta was just scratching the surface of what he could turn out to be.

Nick Pivetta’s first 2 starts in 2024:

3.29 @ Seattle: 6.0 IP 3 Hits 1 Earned Run 10 Ks 0 BBs 17 Whiffs

4.3 @ Oakland: 5.0 IP 5 Hits 0 Earned Runs 3 Ks 1 BB 12 Whiffs

Elite.

Lets take a deep dive into what makes me so excited about Pivetta’s arsenal

In 2023, Pivetta was extremely 4SM Fastball reliant, throwing the pitch over 50% of the time. This was for good reason, his fastball is an excellent pitch, sitting about 95 MPH with great ride up in the zone. Unfourtanetly, his Fastball reliance neutralized the pitch, allowing a .326 wOBA and generating a whiff rate of 24.7%. Hitters saw the pitch so much that they adjusted and were prepared to see it, allowing them to hit it even if the pitch characteristics are great. To his credit, Pivetta recognized this and fixed it. Pivetta damn near cut the usage in half, throwing it 32.8% of the time thus far while maintaining the shape and velocity. Pivetta has reaped the benefits, allowing just a .180 wOBA and generating a whiff rate.

Pivetta rarely threw his Sweeper at all in 2023, throwing the tertiary pitch just 5.4% of the time. Despite it’s lack of usage the pitch was very productive in 2023. It generated a .135 BA, a .182 SLG, a .150 wOBA, and a 44.4% whiff rate. It was clear that it would be in his best interest to throw the pitch significantly more in 2024, and that he did. The sweeper has been his second most used pitch, compared to just his fifth most used pitch in 2023. The pitch has continued to be absolutely wicked, generating a .067 BA and .67 SLG, if you are not aware, this means Pivetta has not allowed a single XBH in his 2 starts. Pivetta’s sweeper has allowed an absolutely minuscule .060 wOBA. Pivetta threw the pitch to a lefty just 3 times all season last year, he threw it to a lefty 4 times in his opening start in Seattle. It his clear that a tangible adjustment has been made and I expect it to be extremely beneficial.

The 2 other primary pitches for Pivetta have both been very good, as they were in the previous year. These pitches being his Cutter and his Curveball. Despite seemingly being overtaken by sweeper, both of these pitches have been more than solid, both allowing sub 87 MPH average exit velocities. Pivetta’s cutter has had some iffy baseline numbers but his statcast data makes it clear that this is simply some bad luck. Pivetta also had a slight walk issue in 2023, posting a 8.5% walk rate. This is why it is absolutely eye popping that Pivetta has only walked one batter in his 11 frames of work. Thanks to his revamped arsenal, Pivetta has struck out an unfathomable 47.6% strikeout rate, obviously this will not hold, but considering his strike out track record and his adjustments, it is not impossible that this number is not north of 35%. It is clear Pivetta made substantial changes to his pitch mix and they are working like a charm. As crazy as it sounds, this could be the Frontline arm that Red Sox have been so desperately looking for.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

Statmuse