By Jonah Drew

Record: 86-76

Yes, you are correct, I do not have the defending World Series Champions making the playoffs. I know it may sound crazy but at the end of the day we are talking about baseball here, in other words, expect the unexpected. At least give me a chance to explain my admittedly brash take. The lineup however, is not where I will stake my claim, that group is as elite as advertised. The middle infield duo signed prior to the 2022 season for over half a billion combined has been a booming success. Marcus Semien has been Mr. Consistent, playing all 162, posting a 122 OPS+ with 29 HRS and 40 doubles. Corey Seager was an MVP caliber player last season and the fact that he was even considered while just playing 119 Games shows just how how elite he was on a rate basis. Seager posted a .327/.390/.623 triple slash with 33 homers, I would be lying if I said I was not concerned about Seager’s health, he has only played 150 games twice since he debuted in 2015, coming off a hernia surgery, I am nervous. Texas has two rookie phenoms, both outfielders, Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford. Evan Carter was a catalyst for a world series winning lineup in 2023, even being slotted as the 3 hitter in crucial playoff games. This was for good reason considering he posted a 182 OPS+ as a 20 year old down the stretch. Wyatt Langford is a freak, Langford somehow fell to 4th overall and boy will the Tigers regret that. Langford posted a minor league OPS north of 1.000 and was just absurd for a runner up Florida Gators team. Langford has broken camp after just half a MiLB season, he his legit capable of hitting 30 Bombs while having an OBP above .350. Langford can absolutely fly but for whatever reason it has not translated to gaudy stolen base numbers or plus outfield defense. The fact that guys like Josh Jung, Adolis Garcia, and Nathaniel Lowe are just complementary pieces is goes to show the Rangers embarrassment of riches. All 3 of these guys are terrific hitters that are capable of posting a WRC+ north of 130. Jonah Heim is a great defensive catcher with the ability to get hot for a month at a time, but even if he is not hitting, his defense provides plenty of value to warrant him playing everyday. Even bench players like Ezequiel Duran and Travis Jankowski of being everyday guys on less potent lineups. I have major concerns about this pitching staff though. The Rangers paid Jacob DeGrom 185 Million across 5 seasons, and after just 6 six starts he was sidelined with an arm injury and not long after that it was announced that DeGrom needed Tommy John. Maybe this will be proceeded by a clean bill of health but as a Mets fan I do not trust DeGrom to come back for any significant period of time this season. They also traded for Max Scherzer at the deadline who was injured for their playoff run and will start the year on the I.L. after having back surgery. They also signed Tyler Mahle to a 2 year deal and he will miss the first half this year in Tommy John recovery. What is left of this staff has me questioning if they can even live to see October baseball. Current ace Nathan Eovaldi can look like Pedro Martinez for a month but then look like batting practice the next. Eovaldi’s hot and cold streaks almost always even out in the end, resulting in a solid season. Jon Gray is a much needed rock, but he is far under qualified to be a 2 on a team with playoff expectations. Andrew Heaney revitalized his career in Dodger blue and earned himself a 2 year 25 Million dollar deal. Heaney did what was needed of him in 2023, posting a 4.12 ERA in just under 150 IP. He is being asked to be a 3 in 2023 which he is simply not capable of. Dane Dunning and Cody Bradford are swingmen by nature and I simply do not expect them to be competent starters on a team with this magnitude of expectations. This bullpen has potential to be well below average in 2024. Jose Leclerc is the one of just two arms that I truly trust in this pen. Leclerc was just under 2.7 with peripherals that point to him being in the 3.1 range, he has also shown the ability to pitch in big games coming up huge in countless post season situations. I did not like the David Robertson signing, I am frankly not sure how much he has left, he was almost unusable in the second half with Miami. The other arm that I trust is Josh Sborz, the man who finished game 5. Although Sborz regular season baseline numbers are ugly, his FIP of 3.75 and his xERA of 3.35 tell us that he is set up man quality. I do not trust any of the middle relief arms, whether it is Yerry Rodriguez, Kirby Yates, Jacob Latz, or Brock Burke. As I stated in my Seattle Mariners article, I value great pitching over great hitting in regards to regular season and I could see this staff being among the worst in baseball.

MVP: Corey Seager

Corey Seager’s Baseball Savant page is utterly ridiculous, everything regarding the bat tells you his stick was one of, if not the best in baseball. Corey Seager is in the Top 5 percent of the following metrics-xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Avg Exit Velocity, and Hard Hit Rate. In english, Corey Seagers hit the ball very hard very often. Not too mention his 16.4% K rate, his 15.2% Barrel rate, and his 38.0% sweet spot rate. All good enough for at least the 84th percentile. Corey Seager does literally every thing well in the box, to a good approach to hitting absolute ropes at optimal launch angles. Despite his 23rd percentile sprint speed, Seager still plays a more than passable Shortstop, with his range being his best defensive attribute oddly enough. If Seager had not missed any time, he may have given Shohei Ohtani a real run for his money.

Cy Young: Nathan Eovaldi

Eovaldi has not posted an ERA above 4 since the juiced ball season in 2019. A common denominator with all of these seasons has been his ability to limit free passes, until last year. His BB rates have been below 4.6% in 2020,2021, and 2022. His walk rate was almost double this number, going up to 8.1%, not horrible but not up to his typical standard. Nathan Eovaldi was arguably the best pitcher in the American League in the first half of 2023. On the contrary, Eovaldi was glorified batting practice for much of the 2nd half but he found it for the postseason. Eovaldi came up absolutely huge in his Wild Card start in Game 2 in St. Pete, pitching 6.2 Innings of 1 run ball. Eovaldo also pitched a gem vs Baltimore in game 3, striking out 7 across 7 innings and only allowing 1 run. Eovaldi has always had a knack for pitching in big games going back to his WS run for Boston. Eovaldi’s competition for this honor is hardly fierce but you have to respect Nate nonetheless.

Breakout: Ezequiel Duran

I would like to say Brian Cashman made a big mistake letting this guy out of the Yankees organization, especially when you consider the return. The return was the notorious Joey Gallo, a man who hit below .160 over a full season sample size before being sent to Los Angeles. Duran will be in the Opening Day lineup due to an Oblique injury, an injury known to be lingering. Duran can play almost anywhere on the diamond, and if you have an ounce of ball knowledge you know the nature of the beast. Injuries are always going to happen and even tho Duran does not have a concrete spot, he is more than likely going to be playing everyday, even if it is not going to be the same spot every single day. Duran was an above average hitter posting a 106 OPS+ in 2023 but people forget how young this guy is, he is 24. Duran clearly has more juice in the tank, he hit a ball 115.2 MPH. Duran is also a top of the line athlete, he has a 99th percentile arm and 91st percentile sprint speed. Duran has the potential to be a 3+ win player if he can just improve his approach, which typically comes with time and experience.

ROTY: Wyatt Langford

The last time Wyatt Langford had an OPS below the 1.000 mark, the 2021 summer Valley League where he played for Charlottesville. Take a guess what his OPS was, .987 in 34 Games, just comical, comical stuff. He had a 1.166 his sophomore year and a 1.286 OPS his Junior year for the Gators. He then put up an OPS above 1.000 at 4 separate minor league stops. You simply never see transitions that smooth, no exaggeration, its an unforeseen thing. Langford hit 47 bombs in 134 Collegiate Games for Florida, if you somehow don’t know MLB seasons are 162 Games long. No I do not expect to go out and hit 50 or even 40 home runs but I do expect that number to be in the 30s, as a rookie that is extremely impressive. Langford has average bat to ball and even if he struggles he is always going to walk enough to muster a solid on base. I hope that as he matures, his athleticism translate to bags and especially improved defense. Langford has an unrivaled track record of success and that road does not end here.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

Just Baseball

Spotrac

Statmuse