By Jonah Drew

Record: 89-73

If this roster was that of the Los Angeles Angels or the Colorado Rockies, I would likely not have them winning 89 ballgames, however this is the Tampa Bay Rays, and this is just what they do. Call it lazy, call it naive, but I will leave the doubting the best baseball minds in the world, to you. The sky fell for Tampa last year, from injuries all the way to Wander Franco. If this sounds crazy, its because it is, the I.L. rotation would be a top 5 rotation in baseball, a 5 of Mclanahan, Springs, Rasmussen, Bradley, and the mythical Shane Baz. If I told you these guys all missed a majority of the season and Wander Franco was abolished from baseball mid season, how many games would you have thought they won, if you said anything less than 99 games, you would be wrong. Year after year people think that the Rays “Devil Magic” would come to an end, year after year this crowd is wrong. Why is this, it is because it is not devil magic, it is because the Rays are simply smarter than you and all of the other 29 MLB organizations alike. I actually do think this lineup looks very good on paper. Yandy Diaz is one of the best hitters in baseball, Diaz posted a .410 OBP and a 158 OPS+. His 22 Homeruns were also very easily a career high with the next closest being 14 in 2019, a season that he only played 79 Games, odd. Brandon Lowe has struggled to stay on the field in recent years, but do not forget who this guy is, a career 126 OPS+ bat with 40 Homers in the tank. Big game Randy has been a star since he bursted onto the scene in the covid playoff, I think there is a chance he catapults into a full time super star. Although there are some very real quality of contact concerns, the stats are what they are, Isaac Paredes hit 31 Homeruns with an .840 OPS in 2023. There is a very shortlist of players who can be extremely valuable while posting a .267 OBP, and Jose Siri is very much on there, largely thanks to his freaky athleticism. I am not sure there is a more underrated player in baseball than Harold Ramirez, I doubt the average baseball fan knows Harold Ramirez batted .313 with a 125 OPS+. I hate to say it but the way it looks to me, the Rays are manipulating Junior Caminero’s service time, they called him up to be a key cog in a playoff push, but he is not a better player than Jose Caballero, my brain simply can not comprehend that. The only explanation would be that they want him to get more SS reps but I will say this, when he comes up, this lineup will be absurdly lengthy. I must say, I am not sure there is a worse catching tandem in baseball than Rene Pinto and Alex Jackson, but I am completely ready to be humbled by the Rays front office. I have already spoke on the Rays horrible injury luck but this rotation is still very solid. I am bullish on Zach Eflin, who the Rays Identified and paid a franchise record contract, I will go in depth on my Eflin obsession in the CY section. The Rays sent highly touted 1B prospect Kyle Manzardo to Cleveland for Aaron Civale, and he did not make due as a Ray, posting a 5.36 ERA. This is not who he is and his 3.63 FIP shows it, thankfully he still has control to show the Rays he is not a 5 era guy. Just as I am bullish on Eflin, I am bullish on Ryan Pepiot. The headliner in the Tyler Glasnow trade, Pepiot has a career 2.67 ERA in 78.1 IP, this feels like the next great get for Tampa. Zack Littell was suprisingly good as a Ray, posting a 3.93 ERA in 87.1 IP, with peripherals to boot. Pete Fairbanks is a Top 10 closer in baseball and he showed it last season, the man who hates the cold posted a 2.52 ERA and earning 25 Saves in 2023. The loss of Robert Stephenson hurts but I really liked the Phil Maton get to offset the loss. Jason Adam proved he is more than capable as a setup man and I am a big fan of the 2 southpaws, Garrett Cleavinger and Colin Poche. Rays rosters have consistently fought above their weight class and expect 2024 to be no different. Doubt the Rays at your own risk!

MVP: Yandy Diaz

Before I get into the Yandy Diaz portion, I must advise the now Cleveland Guardians to block the Tampa Bay Rays number, between the fleeces for Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay robbed Cleveland of being a perennial playoff team. Now lets get into what Cleveland is missing out on. In the last 2 years, Yandy has put up a 142 OPS+ and a 158 OPS+ respectively, these numbers are flat out elite. Yandy’s quality of contact is up there with the best of them, posting a 95th percentile xwOBA, a 98th percentile average exit velocity, a 97th percentile hard hit rate, and a 98th percentile xBA. You would be hard pressed to find better quality of contact than this. To go along with this, he also has a great approach, striking out just 15.7% of the time while walking more than 10% of the time. Considering all of this, why is he not on the tier of an Aaron Judge or a Shohei Ohtani, the answer lies in his inability to lift the ball. A long standing problem, Diaz’s sweet spot rate is just in the 23rd percentile and a Ground ball rate that has been above 50% every year of his career. This lack of lift knocks him at least one tier down of hitter but despite these issues, Diaz is still one of the better bats in baseball just not the very best.

Cy Young: Zach Eflin

It should not go overlooked what the Rays cooked with Zach Eflin. Eflin could not even crack the Phillies rotation by the end of his Phillies tenure, just a year later we are talking about him as the best arm in the rotation and I am not sure if this is consensus but there is a non zero chance Zach Eflin is your AL Cy Young. Now, what exactly did the Rays do, the main thing was an increase in Cutter and Curveball usage. He threw the Cutter 26% of the time vs 15% in ’23 and he threw the curve 27% of the time vs 20% in ’23. The hook was spectacular with the Curve having a wOBA of .231. The Cutter was much less successful but it all culminated in an extremely successful season, the best of his career by a landslide. His 3.5 ERA was actually unlucky, his xERA was 3 flat and his FIP was 3.01. Eflin had impeccable command, walking just 3.4% of batters and striking out 26.4% of the time. Even when he did throw a ball, his O-Swing was 34%, translation: over a third of balls he threw were swung at. Just absurd stuff.

Breakout: Ryan Pepiot

Pepiot was a 3rd Round Pick in 2019 out of Butler by the Los Angeles Dodgers. Pepiot was very solid in the minor leagues, totaling 238.2 IP and a 3.51 ERA. Pepiot has also been flat out dominant in the bigs, to 78.1 Innings at a 2.76 ERA across both 2022 and 2023. The only reason innings have been so scarce for him is the Dodgers gluttony of organizational depth on the pitching front, who could forget the 2022 Tulsa Drillers rotation. Pepiot has shown me more than enough data wise, to get me amped about what he could look like in a full time starter role. Pepiot has barely allowed any hard contact since debuting, his hard hit rate of 27.4% is up there with the best in the Majors and so is his average exit velocity of 86.7 MPH. Since debuting, Pepiot has walked just over 3% of batters and struck out 24% of batters. A K-BB% of 21% is just about as good as you will see. Pepiot was sent to Tampa along with Jonny Deluca in exchange for Tyler Glasnow and now Twin, Manny Margot. I can not wait to see what the Rays’ pitching brass chefs up with Pepiot.

ROTY: Junior Caminero

Junior Caminero is an absolute freak athlete with an inspiring journey. Caminero was signed out of the Dominican Republic for just 225k by the baseball franchise that resides in Cleveland. Caminero had almost no prospect status when he was traded for Tobias Myers in November of 2021. This would turn out to haunt the nightmares of everyone who associates with Cleveland. Caminero had some of the most helium of any prospect during the 2023 season, in which he hit 31 minor league homers across High A and Double A despite a ground ball issue. He was dominant at both stops, posting a 190 A+ WRC+ and a 140 AA WRC+. The Rays decided to have him skip AAA all together in favor of having him on the roster for their playoff push. This is why I find it comical that he did not break camp, he has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues. This is a guy with plus-plus juice and average hit. It should not be long before he is rightfully recalled to Tampa.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

Just Baseball

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