By Jonah Drew

Record: 88-74

The streak of the Mariners missing the playoffs was well documented, and thankfully for this starved fanbase, the curse was broken in the 2022 by an unforgettable Cal Raleigh home run off of Domingo ACEVADO!. This magical season was sadly ended by the Astros in the ALDS after a 2-0 sweep over the Toronto Blue Jays. The 2023 season was not as successful as the 2022 season but to say it was a bad season would be a stretch. They met their realistic expectations before the season, winning 88 games and missing the playoffs by a singular game. Expectations going into last year are pretty much the same for this team, and I do expect that they slightly over achieve them. I have some real questions regarding this lineup. Of course I love Julio Rodriguez, the man was one of the best players in baseball period in the 2nd half and is a legit 40/40 candidate with a great glove in center. Although I believe JP Crawford peaked last season with a 131 OPS+, I think it is fair to expect a 115-120 OPS+, pair that with a fantastic glove. Cal Raleigh is a very underrated slugger, hitting 57 bombs over the last 2 years to pair with tremendous defense behind the plate. They made 3 main acqusitions and frankly, I really liked all 3 of them. Mitch Garver adds some much needed thump to a lineup that was really lacking impact. Jorge Polanco can hit 25 homers while being a .250 hitter, from a non premium position this great value. They also got him for a headliner of a prospect that I believe to be very overrated in Gabriel Gonzalez. The Luke Raley for Jose Cabellaro swap was very interesting but I really like it. Although he has a very real strikeout issue, 15 Homers and 15 bags is nothing to scoff at. All 3 of these moves were more than necessary, they take this lineup from honestly bottom 7 to around the middle of the pack. My questions come at the bottom 4 of this lineup. The 4 players being, Mitch Haniger, Dom Canzone, Ty France, and Josh Rojas. I am rooting for the Haniger bounce back just like you but analytically speaking, I just simply do not see the vision. Dom Canzone was solid last season but realistically I do not see him going over a .700 OPS and if he does it will not be much higher. Ty France put up a .703 OPS last season, from a premium offensive position, that simply will not cut it. Josh Rojas, again, as much as I love him, I am not sold on the idea that he is even much more than a replacement level player at this point. Now to the fun part, the pitching staff. This is in my opinion, the best rotation in baseball. This phenomenal rotation is headlined by at this point, bonafide ace and Cy Young contender, Luis Castillo who has been nothing but fabulous since going to the west coast. In the words of Foolish Bailey, George Kirby does not like to throw balls, posting under 1 Walk per 9 innings and a low 3s era. Logan Gilbert is at this point, bordering on an overqualified 3 and just a luxury to have in the back of a playoff rotation. I sure am a sucker for a high carry fastball and boy do both Bryce Miller ans Bryan Woo have it. These are 2 eerily similar pitchers with high carry fastballs, going into their second years, I like Woo slightly more just due to the fact that his secondary offerings are slightly better then Miller’s. These are 2 great young arms that Seattle is lucky to have in the back of their rotation. The Mariners have seemingly joined the Dodgers, Rays, and Brewers in their respective bullpen sorcery but sadly for them they will start the season without stud set-up man, Matt Brash to start the season at least. Andres Munoz throws absolute flames, sitting near triple digits, helping him post a 2.94 ERA and a 2.70 FIP. I also was a big fan of Ryne Stanek,he was nearly sub 1 in 2022 but suffered some regression to the mean in 2023, posting an ERA above 4. I expect him to meet both of these in the middle and record an ERA slightly below 3. Full transparency, I was debating this team vs their divisional foe, the Texas Rangers and I decided I like Seattle better, I will of course go more in depth on my Rangers predictions article but I will say that contrary to popular belief, I would actually take an elite pitching staff and a middling lineup over a middling staff and an elite lineup.

MVP: Julio Rodriguez

The Jrod show was a revelation for the Mariners in his rookie year in 2022. Jrod was a 6 win player in just 132 games as a rookie, enough to win him Rookie of the Year in the American League. In his “sophomore slump” he put up a 128 OPS+ with 32 Homeruns and 37 Stolen Bases. If that is your sophomore slump, I can not even imagine what your best years look like. Rodriguez was absolutely elite in the second half, posting a .941 OPS and 19 Homeruns. Rodriguez is fantastic in all facets of the game, to go along with his slugging prowess, he is a 91st percentile fielder, run value wise, and a 96th percentile runner. Rodriguez hits the absolute piss out of the baseball, posting an average exit velocity of 92.7 and 52% hard hit rate, both in the top 5% in all of baseball. What Rodriguez did in the second half, I expect to see that over a 162 game span. That would put him firmly in AL MVP talks.

Cy Young: Luis Castillo

I am sure that George Kirby will be a popular selection for this spot and while I do get it, I do think he is in the strike zone to much to the point where it is just natural that he will get hit hard with decent frequency. In my opinion, this caps his ceiling at basically what he did this past year. Castillo however, if everything clicks he could legit win the American League Cy Young award. Here is why am so enthralled with Castillo’s ability. Castillo sits 96 with his Four seamer and it is dominant at the top of the zone, due to some good ride from a very low release height, helping him generate a whiff on 1/3 of his swings. This pitch also had a very high average launch angle of 31 degrees, meaning the pitch generated a lot of weak pop ups. His slider was also fantastic, posting an xBAA of .210 and a near 38% whiff rate. A K-BB of 20.3 also goes to show his sheer dominance of the zone in 2023. Castillo also made 33 Starts, the best in baseball at that mark. Castillo is a reliable workhorse who misses bats extremely well, there is certainly a world where he backs into a sub 3 ERA in 200 Innings.

Breakout: Bryan Woo

No I do not live under a rock, I have seen the Bryan Woo elbow inflammation news. This is extremely scary as there are plenty of instances where this originally expected short absence turns into a late season return or worse but there are more times that they miss the announced time, ramp back up and only end up missing about a month of the season. I am going to go out on a limb and bank on Woo not having any setbacks and coming back in May. I am extremely excited for when Woo comes back because I expect it to be an absolute coming out party. As I said Woo has great fastball shape as well as decent secondaries. His normal slider was just fine but his sweeper got absolutely crushed and I expect him to cut down on that pitch. Woo got extremely unlucky with batted ball data last season, his 3.48 xERA is a significant jump from his 4.21 ERA in his rookie season. Woo did a great job at limiting hard contact this past season, with a hard hit rate in the 83rd percentile and an average exit velocity of 87.4, good for 82nd percentile. Combine this soft contact with a well above average K% in 25.1% and you get one of the better young pitchers in baseball, assuming health.

ROTY: Emerson Hancock

The former Georgia Bulldog was taken 6th overall in the shortened 2020 covid draft by Seattle. No, he has not lived up to the typical 6th overall expectations, but his safety was a calling card during the draft process and that safety has reared its head. Hancock has more than likely done enough to be the 5 on opening day with the inflammation in the the elbow of Bryan Woo. Hancock is not going to come up and light the world on fire but I do expect him to at least give the Mariners some quality innings. Hancock was tremendous in the lower levels in 2021, posting a 2.62 ERA across 44 IP in A and A+. Since then he has been nothing more than fine, usually sitting around the high 3s at every stop. The nature of pitching in the year 2024 is that you simply will not have all 5 of your ideal rotation healthy throughout the season, so even though Hancock is the org’s 6th starter, he will likely be in the rotation consistently.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

MLB Pipeline