By Joe Browne

Record: 87-75

Let’s start here, this team will win the NL Central in 2024. The Cubs turned a lot of heads last year and had a fun summer in Wrigleyville. Just two years removed from when they started what looked to be a rebuild, they were in playoff contention. They ultimately fell short due to some choking at the end of September. While last year’s finish certainly does still sting, it is time to move onto a new season for the Cubs. This team was fun last year and I expect them to be that way again this year. Even though that is a tough thing to predict. The story of the offseason was the new skipper, Craig Counsell. I gave the Brewers a big drop in my article on them partly because they lost Counsell. That is how valuable he is because he is the best manager in the game. His in game decisions are sharp and his leadership is great. That’s a huge plus for this group and I expect him to carry over his success from Milwaukee. Overall, the team defense is great. The best up in the middle pair defensively in the game with Swanson and Hoerner. On top of great outfield defense from Tauchman and Suzuki. The projected lineup contains all returners except former Dodgers top prospect Michael Busch (more on him later). How about Cody Bellinger last year, who saw that coming ? Belli finished 10th in MVP voting a year ago and earned himself a fresh 80 million dollar deal with Chicago. However, he is due for regression this year in my opinion. His batted ball data was bad last year which implies he got lucky. It’s tough to repeat luck in baseball, so if Bellinger does not hit the ball harder this year his numbers are going to go down. Corner outfielders Ian Happ and Seyia Suzuki were both great last year and expect them to continue their success this year. Ultitley man Chistopher Morel was also solid last year and had some crazy clutch moments in the midst of the Cubs hot streak last summer. Swanson and Hoerner are both about average hitters but as I previously mentioned will play elite defense up the middle. All and all, this lineup has the perfect combination of dangerous hitters paired with defense. On the pitching side of things, the Cubs also look solid. Justin Steele messed around and nearly won a Cy Young last year. It was an incredible breakout and he is now the ace of this staff. Kyle Hendricks is somehow still around and he saw sustained success last year for the first time since 2019. Jameson Taillon will start the year on the IL with back issues but should slot into the three spot in this rotation upon his return. Then there are the three guys with little experience in Assad, Wicks and Imanaga. Assad and Wicks both have solid potential and can hopefully develop into something. Imanaga is the X factor for the Cubs, if he can pitch the way he should in his first year stateside, this team should win this division. The rest of the pieces will fall into place around him. The bullpen is very good in my opinion. Alzolay was awesome last year. He will bring electric stuff in the ninth. Hector Neris, a rare example of a consistent year to year reliever will set him up. Guys like Merryweather and Almonte both have good stuff and will provide production to this group. This team is fun and ready to win. With Counsell now at the helm the Cubbies should be able to live up to the expectations and win their division. They are the best team in this division. I have no doubt about that. Will we see playoff baseball with fans at Wrigley for the first time since 2018 in 2024 ? If I was a betting man I would certainly say so.

MVP: Seiya Suzuki

You might think this pick is a little aggressive but if you dig deeper it’s clear it’s not. Suzuki was amazing last year and the metrics suggest he had an even better season then the numbers will tell you. He hit for average last year and smacked 20 homers. A good balance that should improve this year. A Hard-Hit% at 48% is impressive and Suzuki rarely chases. He is a disciplined hitter who packs a punch. Seiya also has good enough speed to help himself pick up extra bases commonly. If he can cut down on the strikeouts just a little and tap into more power, Suzuki has the potential to become a household name in MLB.

Cy Young: Justin Steele

Steele was one of the biggest surprises of the season last year. He finished 5th in NL Cy Young voting last year. He rode his fastball all year long to that honor. An elite run value +16 on his heater. Steele generates soft contact and pounds the zone. Pounding the zone limits his pitch count which lets him be more effective. He won’t strike out 10 hitters a night ; but his slider is a legit “out” pitch. Expect Steele to have another great year in 2024 at the forefront of the Cubs rotation. 

Breakout: Micheal Busch

Mind you that Busch is a rookie but he is still my pick here because he did get 81 AB’s with the Dodgers last year. The Cubs acquired Busch from L.A. in January to give them some versatility at DH or in the infield. Busch was insane in AAA last year and he forced the Dodgers to call him up. Slashing .323/.431/.618 with 27 homer’s driving in 90 runs. Those are video game numbers. Now, he is definitely not posting those numbers in the bigs this year but Busch will still produce. He has a ton of power and if he can get some baseballs up into that Wrigley wind, expect 20 homers in his rookie year. He will slot in toward the middle of the Cubs order this season with a chance to drive in some runners. Remember the name Micheal Busch, because he is about to be a dark horse NL rookie of the year candidate. 

ROTY: Shota Imanaga

I talked about how Imanaga will be the Cubs X-Factor this year and I believe he will come through. The 30 year old will come over from Japan and join the Cubs rotation in 2024. He does not bring a ton of velocity from the left side but has good stuff. His splitter grades out to be his best pitch and I’m sure it will be generating whiffs all season long. That splitter will also generate ground balls and with the Cubs elite infield defense that will help him get outs. He has good control and limited his walks in Japan. Spring Training doesn’t count but Imanaga struckout 25 in 12.2 innings in the Cactus League. That is impressive and a testimony to the stuff he brings to the table. The Japanese southpaw will see success in 2024 and help his team get back into the postseason.

References:

Baseball Refernece

Baseball Savant

CBS Sports

Fangraphs

Statmuse