By Joe Browne

Record: 75-87

The Cardinals were an absolute disaster last season. Not only did this team fall extremely short on expectations they were also dysfunctional. They sent down future star Jordan Walker when he was one of the best hitters on their team for no apparent reason at one point. Also, a former player was benched because he did not hustle around the bases and cost the team a run. They were a joke last year and did not live up to the gold standard that is Cardinal baseball. St. Louis has not had back to back losing seasons since 1958-1959. This year, that streak is going to be broken. The Cardinals are going to struggle even in a weaker division. Leave no doubt, this team is going to score runs. They have a good lineup that contains star players. Expect to be betting the over in the game run total when the Cardinals play in 2024. Why ? This club’s pitching is not good in the slightest. St. Louis’ rotation was bad last year and will be even worse this year. Sonny Gray was brought in to be the ace but he will miss the beginning of the season with a hamstring injury. Gray is good and will bring stability to this rotation every time out. Miles Mikolas took a big step back from an awesome 2022 last year but he still chucked 200 + innings. Mikolas is another guy that will bring stability to the rotation. The rest is total crapshoot. Lance Lynn at 36 years old has returned to St. Louis but do not expect much. He was batting practice in Chicago and L.A. last year. You know that uncle that you have that “would have gone pro” if he didn’t suffer that injury in high school. Yeah, he could have gotten a hit off Lance Lynn last year he was that bad. Veterans Kyle Gibson and Steven Matz round out the rotation. I am not high on either of these guys this year because I do not like their stuff. Gibson was bad with the Orioles last year and Matz was just ok in an injury shortened year in St. Louis. Alltoghter, this rotation is bad and  one of the worst in baseball. The Cardinals cannot expect legit production out of anyone except Gray and that is a recipe for disaster. Let’s circle back to that lineup I was talking about before. Goldschmidt, Arenado, Contreras, Gorman and Walker make up a strong core. Paired with solid lefty bats in Donovan and Nootbaar. Goldy definitely took a step back from his MVP campaign in 2022 last year and at 36 years old do not expect him to get back to that MVP level again. Arenado suffered a major down year last year posting a OPS+ at only 109. Nolan is still awesome, except for a bounce back in 2024. Former top prospect Nolan Gorman was awesome last year he quietly smacked 27 homers. 21 year old Jordan Walker had himself a nice rookie campaign last year. Hopefully, he takes a nice second year leap and continues his development. Overall, this lineup is definitely good. With an Arenado bounce back season and the rest of the group continuing to hit well, the Cardinals will put runs on the board in 2024. There is another reason why I am low on this team’s success besides their pitching. It is their manager, Oliver Marmol. I think that he is bad at his job and that he does not have a good grip on that clubhouse. The year after Yadi Molina retired the team completely fell apart. That is not a coincidence. Also, Marmol just got himself an in my opinion unearned contract extension. Meaning he is going to stick around. He is definitely holding this group back and is one of the worst managers in the game. Lastly, the bullpen is not great. Ryan Helsley is the headliner because he is an elite closer. The only question for Helsley is how many times will he actually have a chance to close out a game for the Cardinals ? Gallegos, Kittredge and Pallante round out an overall mediocre group. The Cardinals should be better this year because they have a new ace and hopefully less dysfunction. However, their staff just will not cut it. Remember that streak of not having back to back losing seasons I talked about before ? That ends this year, the Cardinals are headed toward another year of losing in 2024.

MVP: Nolan Arenado

I am putting all my chips on the table for the Arenado bounce back in 2024. Last year, his batted ball metrics were down. If Nolan can get back to barrelling up the baseball more consistently his numbers will shoot back up. I’m sure Arenado has been working all off season to get back to his normal self. His defense also took a step back last year but is still elite. Nolan’s defense has been his defining quality his entire career. It is uber valuable and he can definitely still pick it at the hot corner. Arenado has been around for what feels like forever but he is still only 32 years old. I’m excited to watch a bg bounce back from Nado in 2024.

Cy Young: Sonny Gray

While Gray will miss his first few starts this season I fully expect him to be dominant when he gets healthy. He is coming off an awesome year with the Twins where he posted a career best ERA+ at 154. His metrics were also great. Elite run value at +36 and his pitch arsenal is lethal. While his average fastball velo is only 92.9 MPH, Gray still has an elite run value at +17. Also, his sweeper and curveball are also great with a breaking ball run value at +23. He can bust his sweeper indoor to righties and get them to roll over or whiff. Gray won’t make 32 starts again in 2024 but he should be great again when he takes the mound at Busch. 

Breakout: Jordan Walker

This one is very chalk. Walker is a former top prospect who put together a solid rookie year and now looks toward a potential second year jump. Expect the home run numbers to make a jump this year compared to last. While 16 is solid Walker has 25 bomb potential and I expect him to get close to that number this year. His defense in the outfield was brutal last year but that can be expected from someone who did not have a ton of experience there. Arenado blocked him at third and his 6’6 frame got stuck in a corner. If Walker can cut down on his strikeouts a bit it would make him even more of a big league hitter than he already is. Walker is primed to breakout this season and live up to his top prospect potential.

ROTY: Masyn Winn

Winn will take the field on Thursday as the Cardinals Opening Day shortstop. At just 22 years old the keys will be handed to Winn in 2024. He had a significant stint with the big league club last year but just held onto his rookie status for 2024. So, why Winn ? He is a good hitter who plays solid defense with a rocket (literally) arm. Winn hit for a high average in the minors but stuck out a whole lot. That is the main concern with the strikeout rate. Big league pitching is much better than on the farm. Winn will have to find a way to strike out less to succeed at this level. His speed is great, swiping 43 bags in 2022 in the minors. The Cardinals could use that speed on the basepaths. He struggled in the big leagues in 122 AB’s last year but with a full offseason under his belt as a big leaguer I believe in Winn and his potential. He has a long way to go before living up to his true potential but a solid rookie year as I predict will help him on that path. 

References:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

CBS Sports

Fangraphs