By Jonah Drew

Record: 84-78

The off-season heading into 2023 was an eventful one to say the least, headlined by two frankly unprecedented moves. On December 14th 2022, Carlos Correa signed a monster 13 Year, 350 Million Dollar deal to San Francisco, or did he? Word got out that Giants doctors had concerns about Correa’s ability to stay healthy across the entirety of the deal due to an ankle issue. There was some radio silence then, bam, in the dead of night news broke that the deal with San Francisco fell through and Correa was signing a 12 Year 315 Million Dollar deal with the New York Mets, who had the look of a juggernaut. Once again, concerns arose regarding Correa’s ankle, these talks bled deep into spring training but eventually things came full circle, after plenty of smoke, Correa signed a six year deal to come back to Minnesota. Major Leaguer for Major Leaguer swaps are very rare in today’s MLB for one reason or another. This is why it came as a suprise that the Marlins and Twins were in agreement to send batting champion to Miami in exchange for Pablo Lopez and Jacob Amaya. The jury is still out on the Correa deal of course but as of right now things are not looking good considering Carlos Correa was a below average hitter last season. The Lopez and Arraez deal was one of the more win-win deals in recent memory. Arraez was flirting with .400 for a while and Lopez was a mid 3s guy in nearly 200 Innings and is one of the more valuable pitchers in baseball headed into 2024. These moves culminated in 87 Win season and an ALDS berth. Starting with the lineup, Ryan Jeffers hits the ball about as hard as anybody when he gets into one, hitting a ball 117.2 MPH down in Houston, and posted a 134 OPS+, he is a name to watch ahead of 2024. Edouard Julien is a personal favorite of mine, he is a three true out come guy to a tee, his BB% of 15.7%, 98th Percentile, his K% of 31.4%, 8th Percentile, and combine that with 16 HRs in just 338 ABs, you get a model 3TO player. The crazy part is, it works, Julien posted an OPS+ of 130 in just his rookie season. I simply can not comprehend how you factor Byron Buxton into your 162 game evaluation at this point, the last time the guy played more than 100 games which should not be too much to ask, was 2017. Even when he was on the field in 2023, he was nothing special, barely hitting above the Mendoza line and being a below average hitter. Much of his value comes from his lighting quick speed, this gift was kept in the shadows, in an effort to preserve his health, Buxton was essentially a full time DH and was barely allowed to run. The loss of Sonny Gray can not be understated, the man finished second in Cy Young voting with a 154 ERA+ and a 5.4 bWAR. That said, I still am very much a fan of this rotation. I have already stated my Pablo Lopez support but I must reinforce how valuable a guy who can give you 200 Quality Innings is in an era where the epidemic known as Tommy John surgery seems to be going around. Joe Ryan’s 4.51 ERA is not indicative of the type of pitcher he is, his peripherals have him more in the mid 3s range. Boy do I love a high carry fastball and he has it, posting a 26 degree LA for better or worse. His K/BB ratios are among the best in baseball, being in the 88th Percentile in K rate and the 92nd Percentile in BB rate. Bailey Ober just continues to eat innings and do it well, although I do not believe he is a 3 on a playoff contending team. Paddack and Varland as the 4 and 5 come with a lot of volatility and I would have liked to see them sign a Marcus Stroman to push everybody back a spot. I understand that they wanted to cut costs due RSN issues but is one decent deal really a crazy ask. Even though Jhoan Duran will be on the I.L. to start the season this bullpen is still solid. I trust under the radar relievers like Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart to help carry the load in the abscence of Duran. I expect 2024 to be relatively similar to the 2023 season but the loss of Sonny Gray and some uncertainty regarding health makes me think some slight regression is likely.

MVP: Royce Lewis

To say Royce Lewis has struggled with injuries throughout his pro career would be the understatement of the year. He has torn his ACL, a devastating injury not once but twice as well as having a serious oblique issue with is notoriously nagging. Even through a rigorous stretch of injuries, it has always been clear that Lewis is a supreme talent. The former #1 Pick all the way back in 2017 made his debut in 2022 and looked very strong but as is par for the course, Lewis tore his ACL. Lewis was on the field just enough to provide a solid sample size for the baseball world and he showed out to the tune of a .309/.372/.548 triple slash line. It is clear to me that this was far from a fluke, he is still a very good athlete posting a sprint speed in the 73rd percentile as well as hitting 15 Homeruns in just 239 Plate Appearances. A barrel rate of 11.7% and an xwOBA of .351 both show that his 149 OPS+ was very real. Lewis basically carried this team to a 2-0 sweep over Toronto in the wild card round. Lewis can be a premier third baseman if he can just stay healthy.

Cy Young: Pablo Lopez

Pablo Lopez has become just about as reliable as any over the past couple of years, posting an ERA+ above 109 in significant innings in every season since 2020. You would be hard pressed to poke a hole in Lopez as a pitcher. Lopez’ peripherals are excellent and they would even suggest that his 3.66 ERA in 2023 was unlucky, I say this because both an xERA of 3 flat and a FIP of 3.33 would have potential put him in Cy Young talks. Not to say he would have beat out Gerrit Cole but he would have been on the level with guys like Kevin Gausman and then teammate, Sonny Gray. Lopez struck out batters at a 29.2% clip(87th Pct) and only walked batters at a 6% clip(83rd Pct). This is helped by his Chase Rate of 34.3% and his whiff rate of 30.3%, both of which are elite. Now lets talk pitch arsenal, Lopez has a true 5 pitch mix, all of which are solid big league offerings. I want to highlight one pitch in particular, his sweeper. His sweeper was a new addition to his mix this past year and safe to say it worked. The pitch had an xBAA of .176 and a xwOBA of .205. If he continues to dominate with his sweeper, it make just take him to the next level. Pablo Lopez is 6’4, this helps him generate elite extension, meaning that his already very solid velocity even ticks up since the percieved velocity is actually much higher than what the radar gun will tell you.

Breakout: Griffin Jax

Jax is far from a household name even though he 2022 and 2023 seasons have been more than solid. The guy was horse, appearing in 71 ball games and tallying 65.1 IP. Jax did start to put people on notice with his post season electricity. Jax’s advanced numbers are fantastic, we are looking at an xERA of 2.86 and an xBAA of .214. Jax misses bats well but that is not what he holds his hat on. That would be his innate ability to generate soft contact. A minuscule barrel rate of 3.3% is absolutely elite all the way up in the 97th percentile. If that elite number did not sell you on the Griffin Jax hype, surely a GB% of 56.8% good for the 94th percentile will do the trick. Jax is not liable to the blow up outing, which is common among relievers. Weak ground balls will find a hole once or twice but it is highly unlikely that they pile up to the point where Jax leaves with a crooked number. Jax could even steal some saves in the early absence of flamethrower, Jhoan Duran.

ROTY: Brooks Lee

Brooks lee was selected 8th overall out of Cal Poly by the Minnesota Twins in 2022. Lee is about as safe as they come. This safety comes from the simple fact that Lee rarely swings and misses. His K rate has been in the low teens through out his career in the minor leagues and even much lower than that during his time at Cal Poly. It has been made clear by the Twins as an organization that they will be happy to call up Lee pretty early into the 2024 season. Lee struggled in AAA in 2023 posting a measly 78 WRC+ and a .304 OBP. This is in stark contrast to the rest of his minor league career where his WRC+ has been above 120 at every real stop and his OBP has been in the mid to high .300s at every real stop. He is definitely helping his case in spring training were he has posted a 150 WRC+. Lee is an elite bat to ball hitter with some more pop in the tank, it will not belong before he is making a real impact for the big club.

Sources
Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

Star Tribune