By Jonah Drew

Record: 73-89

The Royals and their fan base have long slept through free agency. This is due to Owner John Sherman being cheap and under financed in comparison to his peers. However, this past off season, John Sherman ponied up and spent some money. No, Kansas City did not go out and sign Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but they did sign some quality veterans. They signed Hunter Renfroe, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Adam Frazier, Will Smith, Chris Stratton, and Nick Anderson. They also traded for former Boston reliever John Schrieber. I get it, individually, these are run of the mill moves that do not really matter in the grand scheme of things but together they make for at least a watchable product. This is saying a lot because since their World Series run all the way back in 2015 they have been the epitome of incompetence, Posting a record of 499-695 since 2015, including a 56 win season in 2023. I have seen some baseball media outlets predicting the Royals to have a 85+ win season and I simply can not get behind that. Adding names like Renfroe and Lugo is not enough to convince me that you can go from 56 wins all the way to 85+. I do not think these outlets fully recognize how big of a jump that is, 73 wins would be a relatively successful season considering where they have been recently. The Royals handed young phenom Bobby Witt Jr. a Pre arbitration deal and I feel confident saying that they will not regret it. Witt is a threat to steal 50 bags, Hit 40 homers and hit .300. Vinnie P missed time last year but when healthy, he is one of the better first basemen in the American League. Analytically minded baseball minds like myself are drinking the Maikel Garcia kool-aid and guys like M.J. Melendez and Nick Pratto have some upside offensively. The rotation is nothing to write home about but it can be solid. Cole Ragans has ticked up in every way since coming from Texas and has transormed himself into a potential ace. Brady Singer was elite in 2022 and had the looks of a great young pitcher but his 2023 was a massive let down, posting an ERA north of 5. Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo are solid arms to provide reasonably solid innings. Jordan Lyles however is a scheduled loss, I believe they would be better suited with almost anybody holding down the 5 spot. The bullpen is fine with James Mccarthur, Will Smith, and John Schrieber holding down the back end. Overall, I expect Kansas City to be much improved but they are still a year or two away from actually being a post season contender.

MVP: Bobby Witt Jr.

Bobby Witt Jr. was as highly touted as anybody heading into 2022. Witt was billed as the man to bring baseball back to Kansas City. From a team success perspective, no, he has not done so, the Royals have been bottom dwellers of the American League for both years of his big league career. But from an individual perspective he has more than pulled his weight, especially in 2023. Witt was elite in all facets of the game this past year. Defensively, Witt was fantastic, posting 14 outs above average, good for 98th percentile and has a rocket for an arm. Witt is also casually the fastest man in baseball, posting run times in 100th percentile and stealing damn near 50 bags. He also has some serious juice posting exit velocities and barrel rates all in the 70th percentile and above. His peripherals say that he should have been much better than his already stellar .276/.319/.495. Witt is a real threat to go 40/40 next season and I would go as far to say that I expect him to do so.

Cy Young: Cole Ragans

Cole Ragans is an anomaly in every way. You simply never see south paws with this kind of diabolical arsenal. Ragans was sent over to Kansas City by way of the Texas in exchange for another lefty flamethrower in eventual champion Aroldis Chapman. I do not know what the Royals did to Cole Ragans’ left arm but it worked. Ragans saw an unforeseen velocity tick up that led to him being one of the best pitchers in baseball in the second half of 2023. Pre all star break, Cole Ragans had an ERA near 6 and was a lottery ticket going to Kansas City. Post all star break, posted an elite 2.64 in 71.2 Innings. Sitting 97 from the left side, Ragans had a whiff rate of 30.9% and a strikeout rate of 28.8%. A very north-south pitcher, Ragans’ changeup was virtually unhittable in 2023, his main secondary had an xBAA of .195 and had a whiff rate of 34.4%. Watch out for Ragans in the American League Cy Young race in 2024.

Breakout: Maikel Garcia

Maikel Garcia is your favorite baseball nerd’s breakout pick for 2024, here is why. Garcia was a very solid player in 2023, his rookie season. Garcia plays a tremendous third base, his fielding run value is in the 94th percentile, his OAA is in the 98th percentile, and his arm strength is in the 71st percentile. This is an elite defensive profile by every stretch of the word. Garcia is also a sneaky good base stealer, he stole 23 bases in ’23. This is all great and I expect it to continue but this combined with an analytical profile that is screaming for a breakout, you have what has the potential to be one of the best third basemen in baseball. Now, what is a barrel, this is a common misconception among baseball fans, a barrel is when a batted ball has an exit velocity of 95 MPH or better and has a launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees. Garcia did both of these things extremely well, he hit the ball 95 MPH or better 50.6% of the time, good for the 93rd percentile. He also hit the ball between 8 and 32 degrees, 36.9% of the time, good for 76th percentile. Well then, what gives, it just so happens that Garcia rarely did both of these things at the same time, leading to a barrel rate in the 10th percentile, this is very unusual and I highly doubt it continues. Do not be shocked when Garcia is among the league leaders in WAR this time next year.

ROTY: Nick Loftin

Speaking candidly, this Royals system is rough, talent is scarce both on the position player and the pitching side. No, Nick Loftin is not going to come up and be a franchise savior or anything close but he is a solid ball player. Loftin actually performed well in limited big league action this past year, posting an OPS above .800. Loftin may not be on the opening day roster and there is no clear spot to pencil him in but since he can play almost anywhere on the diamond, I have no doubt he will have an impact on this team in 2024. Loftin can hit 10+ homers and can steal 10+ bags. That combined with his defensive versatility should make him at least serviceable in 2024.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

MLB Pipeline