By Jonah Drew

Record: 97-65

For some god forsaken reason, this team is being overlooked. It seems baseball fans have already forgot that the Astros were just one game away from being right back in the fall classic. As a community, I do not believe that we give this dynasty enough credit, the last time there was not American League Championship Series baseball being played down in Houston, Barack Obama was still in office, just think about that for a second. Frankly, I do not believe that this will change in 2024. This roster absolutely stacks up with any in the American League. Houston’s 90 wins were enough to barely win an absolute warzone of a division in the AL West, and I only expect them to improve. It is hard to poke a hole in this lineup top to bottom. Jose Altuve was nearly a 3 win player with a 151 OPS+ in just 90 Games last year, he is very much still kicking. This top 4 is still one of the best in baseball and they showed it in 2023, Yordan put up an elite 170 OPS+ as just a 26 Year Old. Even through a slow start, Alex Bregman still put up 25 Homers and a 122 OPS+ with elite K:BB ratios. I will jump off the Kyle Tucker wagon, the guy was one homer away from a 30/30 season and his peripherals say that he will likely be even better in 2024. It is clear we have seen the best of Jose Abreu but I believe he is still a massive X-Factor, if he can simply be an above average bat, he could take this lineup to the next level. Martin Maldonado was frankly awful this past year, both at the plate and even being it, and yet he still played over a 128 OPS+ guy in Yainer Diaz. I expect Yainer do the same thing in much more opportunity. Chas McCormick was sneaky one of the better out fielders in baseball this past year. Jeremy Pena, Jake Meyers, and Mauricio Dubon are all plus defenders up the middle, providing good depth with some nice upside. The rotation is still solid despite the fact that Justin Verlander will miss some time at the start of the season. Framber Valdez did struggle at times in 2023 but all things considered, a 3.45 ERA in 198 IP is not too shabby, all this guy does is get ground balls, giving him a very high floor. Christian Javier was a popular Cy young pick going into 2023 but he struggled to miss bats and if he can’t miss bats then it is going to be rough for him. It remains to be seen if he can get back to his old, whiff heavy ways. Hunter Brown was my American League Rookie of the Year pick ahead of 2023, despite the ERA being north of 6 in the second half, I keep my faith. Now to the best bullpen in all of baseball and one of the best back ends in recent memory. Ryan Pressley saved 31 games last year and he will be demoted to a setup role. Bryan Abreu was almost the undisputed best setup man in all of baseball, boasting an absolutely absurd 241 ERA+. He will likely pitch the seventh inning, that is inconcievable. All this to say, Josh Hader. Josh Hader had a shockingly bad 2022 but he is back, Hader saved 33 Games with a 1.28 ERA in San Diego. Houston picked him up for 95 Million across 5 years, forming what is essentially a super-pen. I think there is some slight fatigue with the Astros, but don’t be fooled, this team is as talented as ever.

MVP: Kyle Tucker

It may seem crazy to say Kyle Tucker will provide more value to the Houston Astros than Jose Altuve or Yordan Alvarez, and hell, maybe it is. That said, I am going to be on Kyle Tucker train until the wheels fall off. If you can poke a hole in the game of Kyle Tucker, suffice to say, I would be impressed. Tuck struck out just over 13% of the time last season, good for 94th Percentile. The dude never chases, he does not whiff, and if you try him in the zone, he will make you pay. Kyle Tucker is just an impossible out. Tucker is an analytical darling, his .386 xwOBA is in the 95th Percentile, his xBA of .292 is in the 94th Percentile, and his xSLG of .530 is in the 93rd Percentile. The predictive metrics are expecting even a tick up from his already elite, 5.4 win, 142 OPS+ season. Not to mention the fact that he casually stole 30 Bags to go along with this elite performance at the dish. Tucker’s poor fielding metrics were an outlier, he has historically graded out as one of the best at his position. This is normal for the imperfect fielding metrics, I am not worried and I expect them to be right where they have always been.

Cy Young: Framber Valdez

Framber is a ground ball specialist at heart but he is far from your usual inning eating average ground ball getter. Framber is a four pitch pitcher, 3 of those pitches have whiff rates above 30% and 2 of them with whiff whiff rates of 40% or more, those being his Curveball and his Cutter. This is not normal for someone who generates grounders the way he does. Valdez’s abysmal average exit velocity is basically null and void, because almost every time that ball is spiked straight into the floor. This is seen by his 55.2 Ground ball rate and his average launch angle of 4.2 which is actually an 8 degree increase from his absurd 2022 launch angle. Hit the ball as hard as you please, it simply won’t matter. Barring injury, Framber will likely pitch nearly 200 Innings of low 3s ball because that is simply what he does.

Breakout: Hunter Brown

Hunter Brown had some serious prospect pedigree heading into the 2023 MLB season. Things started out more than fine for the rookie arm, Brown’s pre break ERA of 4.12 was on par with expectations. It all started to fall apart after the summer classic though, Brown posted an ERA above 6 in the second half. I believe this can be attributed to some mismanagement by Houston, Brown had barely thrown more than 100 Innings in a season and he was forced to throw 155 in 2023. I believe he will be more adjusted for full workload in 2024. Like Valdez, Brown is also an elite generator of Ground Balls, in the 87th percentile of GB%. Brown also has great K/BB ratios, striking out nearly 27% of batters. I see no reason Brown can not be a good mid rotation arm now that he is adjusted to the workload necessary for that role.

ROTY: Spencer Arrighetti

I would not fault you at all for not knowing who Spencer Arrighetti is. He is not a high profile prospect at all, and I am not here to argue that he is some massively under valued, hidden gem of an arm. This one of the worst systems in baseball, and the two prospects I really like(Brice Matthews and Jacob Melton) will most likely not make a real impact on the big club in 2024. That said, I do believe Spencer Arighetti can moderately help this team in 2024. He has 3 solid pitches and has been serviceable in the upper levels both as a starter and a little bit as a reliever. The back end of this rotation is far from solidified and neither is the bottom of this bullpen. I fully expect Arrighetti to be up pitching solid innings either in the pen or as a spot starter in Houston.

Sources

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

Spotrac