By Joe Browne

Record: 92-70

Let’s set the scene, it’s August 4th 2023 and the Philly faithful made a decision that would change the course of their teams season. The fans opted to for once not boo the then struggling superstar Trea Turner. Rather, they gave him a standing ovation. Turner felt the support of his fanbase that night and finally after months of hearing it from the fans, felt like Phillie. He had an RBI single that night but the real story came the next day. Bottom of the 6th, two on no outs, Phillies down 6-5. Turner steps up to the plate to yet another ovation from the fans. Angel Zerpa gave Turner a 94 mph fastball right in on the hands just where he likes it and it was sent 383 feet into the left field seats. Why is this so important ? Well because the standing ovation Turner was given changed the entire outlook on the Phillies season. Turner absolutely tore it up from there on out and so did the rest of his squad. Philly finished strong going 31-22 the rest of the way and reaching a grand total of 90 wins. They rode it out into the playoffs dominating the Marlins in the Wildcard. Upsetting the Braves in an absolutely thrilling NLDS that delivered many memorable moments. It all came to a screeching halt as they fell just one game short of a second straight NL pennant after being defeated by Arizona. So, make that two straight years where Philly has at least reached the NLCS. Due to this, this offseason POBO Dave Drombroksi said if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Philly returns the exact same lineup and the exact same starting rotation. They made two moves of note this winter. Signing (somehow) 2023 All-Star Whit Merrifield and veteran righty Spencer Turnbull. There’s a reason no major moves were made, this lineup is already very good. Last year this group posted an OPS at .765 and popped 220 homers, 6th and 8th best in baseball respectively. The core of Schwarber, Turner, Harper, Realmuto, Stott, Bohm and Catleanos is elite. Brendan Marsh was very good last year and if he stays healthy should see more AB’s this year. Finally, Johan Rojas is a magician in Center but he won’t hit much at the plate. The rotation is also great. Nola and Wheeler both got paid this offseason and they will headline this rotation once again. Nola should bounce back after a down year last year where he struggled at times. Behind them are Walker, Suarez and Sanchez all three are reliable and solid. The rotation does lack some depth but top prospect Mick Abel is waiting if a spot opens. The bullpen lost Craig Kimbrel but Jose Alvarado will fill his spot surrounded by more solid arms. This team is almost the exact same from last year so I expect a similar win total. A full season of Trea Turner playing the way he should will bump them up a few wins to 92-70 in 2024.

MVP: Trea Turner

I talked a whole lot about Trea Turner above but I did not really break down how much that ovation helped him to finally succeed again. Prior to that standing ovation on August 4th Turner was hitting .235 with 10 homers. Following the standing ovation Turner received he hit .342 with 16 homers. More homers in a smaller sample size, and better numbers in every single category. He became so much more confident following the ovation and completely transformed his season. Now, Turner has accepted Philly and I believe he will have a full season producing at the level we all know he is capable of. Batting average is certainly not the most important stat but expect that number to jump back up to the .280-.290 range this season. Pair that with another 30 stolen base season due to Turner’s 100th percentile sprint speed. Turner will be back to his normal self and Philly’s MVP in 2024. 

Cy Young: Zack Wheeler

This is a very easy pick following Nola’s down year in 2023. Wheeler was absolutely phenomenal again last year posting a 3.61 ERA and an even more impressive 3.15 FIP. It pains me everyday as a Mets fan that we did not re-sign him following the 2019 season. Wheeler has evolved into one of the best pitchers in all of baseball since joining Philly. One of the many reasons Wheeler is so effective is because he consistently pounds the zone. Wheeler is an aggressive pitcher and goes right after hitters with his three different types of fastballs. Wheeler throws a 4-seamer, sinker and cutter. These pitches help him throw a lot of strikes and limit his walks. The only question is will Wheeler win his first NL Cy Young in 2024 ? I certainly know that he is capable of that achievement this year.

Breakout: Christopher Sanchez

Sanchez finally began to see success in 18 starts in the bigs last year. He put up an impressive 124 ERA+ to go with a 3.44 ERA. Philly could use a legit number three starter they can trust behind Wheeler and Nola. Don’t get me wrong, Suarez and Walker are both good but I believe that Sanchez has the potential to be better than both. He posted an elite chase rate at 34.8% last year. This was mainly due to lethal changeup from the left side. It has a lot of bite and falls right off the table toward the bottom of the zone. That pitch also generated Sanchez a offspeed run value at +4 last year. Two other things that Sanchez is elite at are limiting walks and generating ground balls. He has a very solid three pitch mix with his fastball, the aforementioned changeup and a slider. I predict Sanchez continues his trends from last year over a full season and asserts himself as Philly’s game 3 starter come October.

ROTY: Orion Kerkering

If you watched the playoffs last year chances are you have heard or watched Orion Kerkering. Kerkering throws absolute cheddar and is one of those relievers that only has to use two pitches. Kerkering’s two pitch mix contains a sweeper and sinker. He consistently lights up the gun with both. He tossed 5.1 innings in 7 appearances out of the Philly bullpen last postseason. He had 5 K’s in those 5.1 innings showing that the strikeout stuff is definitely there. He only pitched 8.1 big league innings combined in the regular and postseason last year so this is a bit of a gamble on my part. However, I truly believe in Kerkerkings stuff and think he will be a rookie to watch in Philly this season. 

Sources:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

Statmuse