By Joe Browne

Record: 86-76

Simply put, the Mets were a disaster last year. On Opening Day last year the Mets had a payroll north of 270 million dollars. That is an insane number looking at where they are not even a year later. What happened, you might ask, clashing egos, decreased chemistry and a lack of discipline led to the club’s downfall last year. Just a year prior they won 101 games and were in fact, a well disciplined tight knit group. Owner Steve Cohen and then GM Billy Eppler saw an opportunity last summer to blow up a talented yet struggling team and so, they did just that. Cohen, instead of taking a half measure and relying on hope his club would find a way to win again, took a full one. Replenishing his farm and in the process by tearing his big league club down. At the time, it was painful for me as a fan to see my team sell like a vendor at the deadline in a year where I expected them to win a World Series. Sometimes, reality can be harsh and in 2023 it was exactly that for the Amazin’s. Now, the Mets have a much different group heading into a “gap year” if you will. The position player group has a few new additions such as veteran outfielders Harrison Bader and Tryone Taylor. Neither of whom do I think will be amazing but will both certainly see significant playing time. The core of Lindor, Alonso, Nimmo, McNeil and Alvarez is still intact. I expect a bounce back from McNeil and a monstrous breakout from Alvarez that will make this core even stronger. The pitching staff is a much different story. We will start with the returners in Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana. The Mets will be without Senaga, their ace, for the first month or so but have the depth to cover the innings in his short absence. Quintana will look to be healthier this year after just throwing 75.2 innings last year. His ability to limit the home run ball is exceptional and he is one of the best in baseball at it. The rotation, when fully healthy, will see three new starters: Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Adrian Houser. Houser was rock solid for years in Milwaukee and proved to be a reliable back end starter. Sean Manaea comes off a season in San Francisco where he spent a majority of his time in a bullpen role. However, David Stearns inked the lefty to a 2 year 28 million dollar deal in January. This is because Stearns and the Mets see potential in the 32 year old. His fastball velocity was the highest it has ever been last year. Add that with elite extension and Manaea has perceived velocity on that heater because he releases it closer to the plate then most. The last of the trio is Luis Severino, let’s not sugarcoat this one he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. However, just one year before last he had a nice 124 ERA+ and very solid season in the Bronx. Also, the Yankees made Severino change his delivery last year because they feared he was going to tip his pitches too easily. The Mets have given him more freedom and it has shown to be fruitful early as he has tossed five scoreless innings so far in the Grapefruit league. None of these three are going to win a Cy Young, but I fully expect all three to put together solid seasons and give the Mets a chance every fifth day. The bullpen dearly missed Edwin Diaz last year but now he is back and ready to reclaim his crown as the best closer in the sport. His return added with newcomers Jake Diekman, Jorge Lopez, Michael Tonkin and Shintaro Fujinami round out to make this an overall solid pen. 86 wins may seem like a lot to some but this team has a core of established hitters with a much improved staff from last year. There is potential here, some of these additions will be great and others won’t be but, overall I still believe this team is good. There is no pressure on this group now and that may just happen to be their biggest advantage. This Mets season has already been tossed away by many baseball fans before it has begun. This team is still good and they will prove it by being competitive for an NL Wildcard spot all year long.

MVP: Francisco Lindor

Lindor is the definition of a superstar, and the face of this Mets franchise. He has finished ninth in NL MVP voting two consecutive years and last year he added a 30-30 season and a silver slugger to that. It is not just the elite switch hitting offense, it’s the elite defense at shortstop as well. That defense ranked in the 90th percentile for OAA in 2023. Pair that with his great leadership and it is clear Lindor will be the Mets MVP once again in 2024. I’m sure Pete Alonso in his contract year will not make it easy for Lindor to be the Mets best player again but Lindor’s overall value is just too great. 

Cy Young: Edwin Diaz

It is going to be rare to see a reliever get picked to be the best pitcher on a team during these prediction articles but Diaz may be the lone exception. That is a testament to how dominant Edwin DIaz truly is. Even off the knee injury I have no doubt that Diaz will return to his dominance when the Trumpets sound in Flushing. The last time we saw Diaz on a major league field he had some absurd numbers. The following numbers were all in the 100th percentile for pitchers in 2022: xERA (1.69), xBA(.149), Whiff %(49.9%) and K%(50.2%). Diaz struck out over half the batters he faced in 2022, take a second and realize how insane that actually is. While these numbers will no doubt be tough to replicate, I believe Diaz will flirt with similar numbers once again in 2024. 

Breakout: Francisco Alvarez

The former number one prospect in all of baseball is here to stay. Alvarez was a huge spark for the Mets last season, and in 2024 he will take the leap to being an elite catcher. His numbers do not look as good as they should have last year because he definitely got burned out toward the end of the year. For a 22 year old Alavrez has an unmatched work effort and willingness to learn. He received praise from future Hall Of Famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer for his ability to call games as a rookie last year. He popped 25 jacks last year and I expect that number to be right around there once again in his sophomore season. His defense has improved vastly so far in spring training and Alavrez will be able to control the basepaths much better in 2024. I’m very confident Alavrez will take a massive leap this season and assert himself as an elite major league catcher in 2024. 

ROTY: Nate Lavender

There are very limited options here due to Ronny Maurcio’s season ending injury he suffered in the Dominican Winter Ball. However, Nate Lavender is the option for this award. best Do not worry if you do not know who Nate Lavender is. I think Mets fans especially should get to know the 24 year old former 14th round pick. Lavender has been spectacular in spring training thus far striking out seven batters in three scoreless innings. He will give the Mets another left handed reliever option alongside veterans Brooks Raley and Jake Diekman. He has shown in spring training his ability to mix up his timing and deliveries to throw hitters off which is very valuable. Also, Lavender presents reverse splits, right handed hitters slashed .164/.265/.336 against him at AAA Syracuse last year. He may not make the opening day roster but  I’m sure we will see the big league debut of Lavender in 2024.

Sources:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

MLB Pipeline